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Old 01-04-2005, 07:48 PM   #1 (permalink)
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The world without the US

simple question. i hope the mods won't mind if i try to spark some discussion before i infuse a bit of my own thought.

what would the world be like without the US?

so we're more focused in the discussion, i'd like to limit it to "how the world would be different if there were no US (or a version of the US that is essentially militarily, economically, culturally inert) since the end of world war II?"

Hitler is defeated, Japanese expansion is rebutted... yet the world is left without the United State's fingerprints since then...

would the world be better off? worse? unaffected?
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Old 01-04-2005, 07:52 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Very interesting topic. I'll be interested to see what theories people come up with. As for my own, I think I'll have to think about this for a little while before I mouth off
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Old 01-04-2005, 07:56 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Very timely. An article about this very topic appeared in the Toronto Sun today....

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Column...03/806494.html

"Some see the tsunami disaster as a chance for the U.S. to mend fences with the Islamic world with its aid -- showing the people of Indonesia (the world's largest Muslim country) that America is not the devil incarnate.

Maybe this will happen, but not likely.

Ordinary people in the under-developed world rarely view Americans as anything except what's desirable.

The supposed unpopularity of the U.S. is often propaganda and rhetoric, and not shared by the people of the world who, even after 9/11, Iraq, Afghanistan and the war against terror, seek to come to America to live in freedom and prosperity.

Those anxious to get in have no doubts about what America is -- the most desirable country on Earth.

...A world without the U.S. would be a sorrier world indeed, especially when leadership in humanitarian causes is needed. "
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Old 01-04-2005, 08:03 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Do you mean if the US were removed from the earth now, or do you mean the US was never formed, or do you mean there is no land mass of north america? I hate to split hairs, but there are probably very different answers for each situation.
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Old 01-04-2005, 08:19 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I agree with willravel. However, I think that the U.S. is a central power in the world that, for better or for worse, is what the rest of the world revolves around. They may not like us, but they pay attention to us. American politics amuse not just Americans, but the rest of the world. American military intimidates the rest of the world. American buisnesses infect the rest of the world. Everywhere you turn, you'll see America, it's just the view of it that changes.

The world without the U.S. would be different. Countries and regions might break up into smaller autonomous states, as in pre WW1, or the USSR would have conquered most of Europe, and the world would run on communism.
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Old 01-04-2005, 08:33 PM   #6 (permalink)
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sorry, i thought the question was clear from the initial post.

for our discussion, history has unfolded identically to how we know it until 1945... after which is the imagined time when the US has ceased to effect any meaningful change on the world. it could be there... but that's irrelevant to how the rest of the world would have developed.

just think of it as a phantom canada.
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Old 01-04-2005, 08:34 PM   #7 (permalink)
 
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the counterfactual thing is only interesting in a space like this, really. but hey...we're in a space like this. so clear up willravel's question and maybe i'll play too. are there also assumptions about the soviets? i would assume that you would have to start at some arbitrary point during, world war 2, say right before the consolidation of the post-war system and pose a different set of choices from there, yes? if you figure that the postwar thing involved stuff like bretton woods (summer 1944)...so... yes. interesting.
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Old 01-04-2005, 09:48 PM   #8 (permalink)
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hey irateplatypus,

i think willravel means wat happened to the US afta the war??? did they simply decide to go their separate ways??? was there a civil war??? did USA simply vanish?? did aliens abduct them? is the land still there?? do otha ppl occupy the land now??? i think ppl need more info to start a discuccion...
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Old 01-04-2005, 10:17 PM   #9 (permalink)
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If the US didn't rise to super power status after WW2 then Russia would be in the US' shoes today. There wouldn't have been any arms race, so they would still have money and no propaganda trying to turn ppl away so it would just be the US' but commies instead.

Whoever is at the top is always hated, look at the UK before 1776 and Rome and Greece before that. They all get kicked off and someone else takes their place and nothing changes.
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Old 01-05-2005, 12:25 AM   #10 (permalink)
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If there was never a US, the British might have kept their empire for longer (none of that "give up your empire in exchange for our help" during WW2). The Russians might have risen to power regardless (no real US connections). The Germans might have won WW1 (would have started anyway), or it might have dragged on for a few more years. The depression of the 30's might not have been so bad as it was. WW2 might not have broken out (Hitler may not have gained power), but if it had, Germany *or* Russia might have won, depending on how quick Germany was. Japan might have had an empire in the east (No US to stop them), China might have been smaller and less powerful as a result.

There are so many variables, it's pretty much impossible to say what would have happened after the '40s. Just remember that before 1900, the US wasn't really a big player on the world stage. Go from there.
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Old 01-05-2005, 12:41 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Without the US, the planet would have a "One World Order" Some Empire or Kingdom would of dominated the rulings of the world by now. Would that be good? I have no idea. We have played the World Police Force since our Industrial Revolution days. We caused the collapse of the former USSR and deleted most communist gov'ts. Personaly, I think the US has over stepped it's Foreign Policy and hurt us in that area, however, I do think we live in the best country on earth, but also one of the most violent and corrupted. Good topic........makes ya think!
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Old 01-05-2005, 12:55 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Let's assume we're not playing alternate history and "What if" in the conventional way; ie, what would the world be like if the US wasn't a super-power.

Let's ask the question as follows.

What would the world be like if the US had never existed?

In other words, what if the US had never come about at all?



My guess would be something along the lines of

1) The world would be much worse off
2) Great Britian would still be a global super-power
3) Possibly (probably?) Germany would have won WWII, or at least achieved stale-mate (a la the book "Fatherland")
4) The Soviet Union would still exist and great swathes of Europe would be under a totalitarian regime.



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Old 01-05-2005, 01:23 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerDick

Those anxious to get in have no doubts about what America is -- the most desirable country on Earth.

...A world without the U.S. would be a sorrier world indeed, especially when leadership in humanitarian causes is needed. "
Can't say I agree with you there RangerDick. America is not the most desirable country on Earth. I honestly think that Australia may challenge that.

Only speaking from my limited experience but there are a lot of people that dislike the US. Many Australians don't think highly of the US's arrogance at all. We also question America's intentions in IRAQ.

The recent Tsunami saw America initially only offer a very limited amount of financial support. This was picked up by the press and I heard a number of people saying "well there isn't any oil there for America to steal"

America seems to think that it is their responsibility to "cleanse" other parts of the world yet you only have to watch the news to see how their own backyard could use some attention.

Just my personal view. No offence intended.
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Old 01-05-2005, 05:33 AM   #14 (permalink)
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A few speculations:

There would have been no iron curtain, Europe would be be part of the communist block. (Although that would probably be failing by now, especially in England.)

Millions of immigrants would probably have stayed put. Much of the Americas would have been under tremendous communist pressure as well as the rest of the world.

Without the arms race and competition between the U.S. and Soviet Union there probably wouldn't have been much of a space program anywhere yet.

Wouldn't have been any rock 'n' roll music and jazz, or at least the kind influenced by African Americans.
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Old 01-05-2005, 05:43 AM   #15 (permalink)
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The world would be ruled by scotland and all men would wear kilts

/end of silliness

this is going to require some thought on my part.....but its a very good topic!!
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Old 01-05-2005, 06:21 AM   #16 (permalink)
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While it is interesting to look at the policial vacuum that would occur without the US I think it is way more important to recognize the cultural and economic impact that the US has had on the world...

In fact I would argue that without those two interests the US would have remained realtively isolationist in any case.
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Old 01-05-2005, 06:58 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto
What would the world be like if the US had never existed?
That is a too big "what if" to get a somewhat realistic answer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto
2) Great Britian would still be a global super-power
nope, no superpower or "empire" survies that long

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto
3) Possibly (probably?) Germany would have won WWII, or at least achieved stale-mate (a la the book "Fatherland")
depends if there was a WW2 at all. Without the US the WW1 may have ended earlier with a "fairer" treaty thus perhaps not resulting in Hitler.

Churchill claimed that the US prolonged the War because the Allies felt more triumphant and aimed for germanys complete surrende. Without US both nation would have reached a status were war was no longer possible.

America should have minded her own business and stayed out of the World War. If you hadn't entered the war the Allies would have made peace with Germany in the Spring of 1917. Had we made peace then there would have been no collapse in Russia followed by Communism, no breakdown in Italy followed by Fascism, and Germany would not have signed the Versailles Treaty, which has enthroned Nazism in Germany. If America had stayed out of the war, all these isms wouldn't today be sweeping the continent of Europe and breaking down parliamentary government— and if England had made peace early in 1917, it would have saved over one million British, French, American, and other lives. [purportedly, interview in New York Enquirer 1936]

To follow this thought, the war could have ended in a massive soldiers (french soldiers were revoltnig in 1917; germans sailors revoltet 1918) and peoples revolt against their goverments resulting in a couple of "peoples republics" over europe (could be good, but could also be very bad)

sounds far fetched? yep, this is "what if" after all

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto
4) The Soviet Union would still exist and great swathes of Europe would be under a totalitarian regime.
Unlikely, without a great enemy the SU would have been fallen apart much earlier, or perhaps evolved in a nore nice goverment since the outside pressure would no be there. This pressure resulted in the russians desire to compete and that demanded a totalitarian regime.
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Old 01-05-2005, 09:00 AM   #18 (permalink)
 
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it seems to me that you cannot really start this game in 1945 and simply eliminate the americans from the picture. you have to start a bit earlier, as i suggested above, simply because by 1945 many of the institutional infrastructures that defined the postwar world were already in place and it is therefore simply absurd to erase the us from arrangements it was instrumental in setting up. it probably makes more sense to consider things from maybe early 1944,, at a point where the soviets were decimated by pushing the germans back, before d-day and bretton woods. because at that point you also can play around with the soviets as a variable, one that had any number of choices available--like concentrating differently on reconstruction in the postwar context---without the need for eastern europe, without the plundering of east germany, etc.--you might well have ended up with a fairly isolationist soviet union. there has long been an argument that the move into eastern europe was defensive in nature, prompted by the american moves to begin consolidating a new empire. so there is no need to assume an expansionist soviet union without its mirror image in the us.

if you structure the game around 1945, all you are doing is trying to set up a scenario in whcih the logic of the cold war would play out without the united states as an actor. and that is absurd. you have to play without the assumption that the cold war was necessary.
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Old 01-05-2005, 11:46 AM   #19 (permalink)
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If the US didn't rise to super power status after WW2 then Russia would be in the US' shoes today. There wouldn't have been any arms race, so they would still have money and no propaganda trying to turn ppl away so it would just be the US' but commies instead.
I'd expect the USSR might have overrun Europe. It is possible that Western Europe would have gotten aid from other sources (made a deal with some other world power), but I suspect Russia would have been able to steamroll them.

By now, the world economy would be in a tailspin. Some nations would be experimenting with other forms of economics.

Alternatlively, a small scale nuclear war could have happened. Possibly the Caliphate would have been formed, and the world would have witnessed a standoff between Islam and Communism.

Asia may have been on one side or another of any such conflict.

Britian may have kept her Empire to a certain extent, especially if she held off against direct rule by communist Russia (good old water) long enough to appease. When your choices are Russia or Britian, colonies may have willinging stayed under the Queen.
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Old 01-05-2005, 12:13 PM   #20 (permalink)
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This is a bizarre question, the US defeats Hitler, and then ceases to exist?

I suspect the cold war would not have been and the Soviets would have over taken most if not all of Europe, Asia, Africa, and whatever the compenents of North Amrica are. Communism/totalitarianism would be the order of the world.

Also I must take exception with this posting:

Quote:
Originally Posted by fluster
...America is not the most desirable country on Earth. I honestly think that Australia may challenge that.

Only speaking from my limited experience but there are a lot of people that dislike the US. Many Australians don't think highly of the US's arrogance at all. We also question America's intentions in IRAQ....
...America seems to think that it is their responsibility to "cleanse" other parts of the world yet you only have to watch the news to see how their own backyard could use some attention.

Just my personal view. No offence intended.
No offense taken personally, but I believe the recent re-election of Prime Minister Howard paints a much different picture then the one you have tried to paint.

Wasn't this almost exclusively a referendum on Australia's cooperation with the US in world affairs? And a resounding defeat of those not on board with Australia's direction?

-bear
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Old 01-05-2005, 12:28 PM   #21 (permalink)
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While it is interesting to look at the policial vacuum that would occur without the US I think it is way more important to recognize the cultural and economic impact that the US has had on the world...
European: "You Americans have little culture. The only contribution you've made to the world is Rock 'N' Roll and Harley Davidson."

To which I replied: "What's wrong with that?"
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Old 01-05-2005, 12:53 PM   #22 (permalink)
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These are just some random thoughts, but no US from say 1945?

Europe was a total mess, without American loans, it would have taken longer to rebuild, but may have retained more of its original character. Culturally things would have been very different, and without the post-war marketing influx from the US (advertising, music, film coca-cola etc) a more traditional lifestyle and set of values might be in evidence today.

The nations not totally exhausted from the conflict would have a greater influence on the reconstruction of Europe, and we might see Switzerland playing a more central role in world affairs today. Likewise, England, though short on manpower and finance would likely have an upper hand based on it's superior trade links outside of Europe. The formation of Israel would have looked a little different too, potentially settling in somewhere less contentious than it's current position. Compromises with the Arabs would have been reached earlier without the impetus provided by the US Jewish lobby. Britain might have closer ties (than the reasonably close ones it currently does) with the Middle East too - the Suez canal might have been held had it not been for the US's public nay-saying.

Educated Jews fleeing from Germany might have settled elsewhere, providing an influx of talent to that country - had this have happened in the UK, many of the technological leaps (Nuclear Power, Radio, Computing) of the post-war age might have been concentrated in one place, giving a different flavour to how they were distributed around the world.

The Empire was already on its way out at that point, but perhaps the organisation and role of the Commonwealth would have a higher status than it does today.

The USSR might have been a tamer beast, and would likely have formed closer and friendlier relations with Europe without the looming presence of the US (which, much like today with the 'Terrorists', talked up the Red Peril very much out of proportion) Japan might have been more isolated without the American presence there after the war, and might today be a less technologically advanced nation.

Thinking about this, after the war, with much of the World's nations on their knees exhausted after the conflict. Americas ability to provide finance and personnel in rebuilding and other similar capacities, had an unprecedented opportunity to introduce its culture, values, media and products to an otherwise stark world. Post-war, the Americans were in a very lucky position to be seen as knights in shining armour, and as such products and values of an American origin recieved a huge psychological boost over local ones.

I think the world today would be a lot less homogenous if that hadn't happened. Whether that is a good, or a bad thing is another matter.
 
Old 01-05-2005, 12:55 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flstf
To which I replied: "What's wrong with that?"
I'd reply along the lines of....

"Let's not forget about your ability to complain about it!"

Of course I usually only come up with these witty quips after the daggone fact.

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Old 01-05-2005, 07:22 PM   #24 (permalink)
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I personally think Mexico would have stolen everything up to the Canadian border from the Indians if the US hadn't existed.

Unless someone can tell me why they wouldn't have.
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Old 01-05-2005, 08:09 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fluster
Can't say I agree with you there RangerDick. America is not the most desirable country on Earth. I honestly think that Australia may challenge that.

Only speaking from my limited experience but there are a lot of people that dislike the US. Many Australians don't think highly of the US's arrogance at all. We also question America's intentions in IRAQ.

The recent Tsunami saw America initially only offer a very limited amount of financial support. This was picked up by the press and I heard a number of people saying "well there isn't any oil there for America to steal"

America seems to think that it is their responsibility to "cleanse" other parts of the world yet you only have to watch the news to see how their own backyard could use some attention.

Just my personal view. No offence intended.
I know you aren't meaning to offend, but recently Australia has come of as Arrogant to me also.

I love Australia mind you, but I honestly think because they aren't a super power like the US they are less scrutinized. If Australia was held in the same light, circumstance to circumstance, also applying all the negatives the world seem majority to have for the US. I think Australia may not be in the same posistion.



Me personally, I think the world would be a little drab. The idea of the American Dream has ruled most of the world the last few decades, and the American dream is normally Money and Freedom. Also Imperialism was about to die around that time period, but if Britain and France won the war...who knows. The rich may have gotten a lot richer, and the poor poorer.
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Old 01-05-2005, 08:49 PM   #26 (permalink)
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What would the world be like...

dang that's a hard one. Does anyone know of any major overthrow of colonial rule before America's? Would Gandhi and other movement leaders have more fame for denting the superpowers? Surely it was time for a change... America was just one that stepped up and was successful. I'm not going to say that the world would be better or worse. Different? Yes. But not as much as we might think.
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Old 01-06-2005, 12:19 AM   #27 (permalink)
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Then someone else would be a 'world power'. It's like asking, what if the Roman Empire never existed? Then someone else would have a huge fuckin empire. The Turks maybe?
So if the US never existed... The British Empire? The Far Eastern Empire would take over the globe? Personally it disheartens me that I live in the country that can't keep its nose out of everyone else's business. I would like to see that Asian empire though. I betcha things would be alot more efficient. And well engineered.
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Old 01-08-2005, 08:21 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irateplatypus
simple question. i hope the mods won't mind if i try to spark some discussion before i infuse a bit of my own thought.

what would the world be like without the US?

so we're more focused in the discussion, i'd like to limit it to "how the world would be different if there were no US (or a version of the US that is essentially militarily, economically, culturally inert) since the end of world war II?"

Hitler is defeated, Japanese expansion is rebutted... yet the world is left without the United State's fingerprints since then...

would the world be better off? worse? unaffected?

whatever would have happened, if there were no US, world would have been a lot better place to live in.
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Old 01-08-2005, 08:50 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Interesting.

If the US never came about, the world would be a much more bleak place, reality would be drasticlly different whether you talk about the lack of America from it's inception or after WWII. If the question pertains to the latter, I think the world would be seeing one major color, Red. And no, the world would most definitly not be a better place without America.
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Old 01-09-2005, 02:07 AM   #30 (permalink)
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So the original proposition....America essentially dissappears from the scene after VJ day...

Rise of post-war isolationism in America (perhaps Roosevelt lost in 1944 to 'Get it over and get the boys home' campaign?) leads to severing of ties with Europe after conflict.

American military forces withdraw from Europe, no Marshall Plan to rebuild Germany, no MacArthur's Japan. Strong US Navy and small nuclear stockpile make Americans confident in their security.

Germany becomes a 3-way split: East Germany (Soviet), Bundesrepublik (Independent), and West Germany (Anglo-French). Austria remains split as well. Berlin is absorbed during the Crisis into East Germany.

The Anglo-French alliance remains strongly tied as only counter to the Soviet Union. Italy, Greece, Yugoslavia become Communist states. Spain courted by Anglo-French.

Israel forms as a client state of the Soviet Union with funding from American citizens. Anglo-French ally with Arab nations. UK and French colonies begin to seek independence and get it for the most part, although many remain within their sphere of influence.

Korean War takes all of a few months to resolve, with a Communist Korea resulting. After Korea, cracks appear between China and Russia over their influence in Asia.

Development of nuclear weapons by Soviet, British, and French militaries is followed by China. Focus is on IRBM and tactical forces (due to lack of a need to hit the Americas).

Without ties to most of the world, and without the recovery of Central Europe and Asia, the US economy only grows slowly after the war. However, with security assured, this is not seen as a great problem. The US does get tied up in a number of Latin American adventures in which the rest of the world has little interest.

By the 1960s, the world looks very different for America. Her military has been surpassed by technological developments in the UK, USSR, and France. Her small nuclear force is inferior to that of Britain, France, the Soviets, and even China, and she lacks an effective delivery vehicle. Developments in missiles have threatened to make her Navy and Army Air Force incapable of defending the beaches. Attempts are made to rectify this, but without enough economic backing, the efforts are usually inferior copies of foreign equipment.

The Anglo-French become imbroiled in a prolonged effort in SE Asia against China and the Soviet Union. Eventually, they withdraw, but China and the USSR can not peacably divide the spoils, leading to a series of proxy wars between Cambodia and Vietnam. India and China engage in border wars as well, India being a strong member of the Anglo-French alliance.

By the end of the 1970s, the Anglo-French have cleared up a number of problem areas, with friendly governments in power in many strategic areas, and isolation of those areas they could not win. Economically, they have become world powers, being the center of world commerce, and the hub of trade. Militarily, they still fear the huge Soviet forces, but are gaining a strong edge in technology. The United States has become reliant on French aircraft and missiles and British electronics and ships for its small Department of Self Defense.

At the end of the 1990s, Anglo-French defense spending reaches the point where the Soviets can no longer maintain parity, even with quantity, and she withdraws from Central Europe to a more defensive position. China has become an economic as well as military powerhouse, lording over satellites in Korea, Japan, and Cambodia. The Western nations have prospered in the fair-trade environment, and the Soviet Union adopts reforms to allow it to participate.

The Middle East remains a hot-bed. Without a strong sponsor, Israel remains dogged in her defense. Anglo-French support for Syria and Egypt is also limited, with revolts against Western influence in the Gulf region threatening her oil resources. Major Anglo-French military forces are redirected to maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf from the end of the European Cold War to present day.

By the end of the 1990s, the United States remains a viable, but limited economy. Her main trading partners are the poorer states of Latin America, and her wealthy Northern neighbor, Canada. Except for Canada, the Western Hemisphere is generally viewed as a backwater of little consequence in the globe. American has tried to revive her economy and open back up to the world, although this has in many cases led to the exploitation of her resources and labor by French and British mega-corporations, eager to tap into poorly exploited reserves of natural resources.

The last five years have found the Western Europeans battling terrorism stemming largely from their influence and military presence in the Middle East. Russia has retreated militarily to her borders, but has made an aggressive entrance to the world economy parlaying her vast resources and expertise in space technology to effect. China has consolidated her eastern regional hegemony and is beginning to gain steam economically and technologically. The Europeans are the pre-eminent military force on the planet, but this is viewed with suspicion by the other main powers, as she begins to try and extend her influence in the Americas.

The world of 2005 is an unsure place, with a militant and aggressive, but economically powerful West Europe, a vibrant Russia, a growing China, and the backwaters of the Americas and Africa, along with the firy Middle East to provide tension.

Just some musings.....

Josh
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Old 01-09-2005, 08:21 AM   #31 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jb2000
So the original proposition....America essentially dissappears from the scene after VJ day...

Rise of post-war isolationism in America (perhaps Roosevelt lost in 1944 to 'Get it over and get the boys home' campaign?) leads to severing of ties with Europe after conflict.

American military forces withdraw from Europe, no Marshall Plan to rebuild Germany, no MacArthur's Japan. Strong US Navy and small nuclear stockpile make Americans confident in their security.

Germany becomes a 3-way split: East Germany (Soviet), Bundesrepublik (Independent), and West Germany (Anglo-French). Austria remains split as well. Berlin is absorbed during the Crisis into East Germany.

The Anglo-French alliance remains strongly tied as only counter to the Soviet Union. Italy, Greece, Yugoslavia become Communist states. Spain courted by Anglo-French.

Israel forms as a client state of the Soviet Union with funding from American citizens. Anglo-French ally with Arab nations. UK and French colonies begin to seek independence and get it for the most part, although many remain within their sphere of influence.

Korean War takes all of a few months to resolve, with a Communist Korea resulting. After Korea, cracks appear between China and Russia over their influence in Asia.

Development of nuclear weapons by Soviet, British, and French militaries is followed by China. Focus is on IRBM and tactical forces (due to lack of a need to hit the Americas).

Without ties to most of the world, and without the recovery of Central Europe and Asia, the US economy only grows slowly after the war. However, with security assured, this is not seen as a great problem. The US does get tied up in a number of Latin American adventures in which the rest of the world has little interest.

By the 1960s, the world looks very different for America. Her military has been surpassed by technological developments in the UK, USSR, and France. Her small nuclear force is inferior to that of Britain, France, the Soviets, and even China, and she lacks an effective delivery vehicle. Developments in missiles have threatened to make her Navy and Army Air Force incapable of defending the beaches. Attempts are made to rectify this, but without enough economic backing, the efforts are usually inferior copies of foreign equipment.

The Anglo-French become imbroiled in a prolonged effort in SE Asia against China and the Soviet Union. Eventually, they withdraw, but China and the USSR can not peacably divide the spoils, leading to a series of proxy wars between Cambodia and Vietnam. India and China engage in border wars as well, India being a strong member of the Anglo-French alliance.

By the end of the 1970s, the Anglo-French have cleared up a number of problem areas, with friendly governments in power in many strategic areas, and isolation of those areas they could not win. Economically, they have become world powers, being the center of world commerce, and the hub of trade. Militarily, they still fear the huge Soviet forces, but are gaining a strong edge in technology. The United States has become reliant on French aircraft and missiles and British electronics and ships for its small Department of Self Defense.

At the end of the 1990s, Anglo-French defense spending reaches the point where the Soviets can no longer maintain parity, even with quantity, and she withdraws from Central Europe to a more defensive position. China has become an economic as well as military powerhouse, lording over satellites in Korea, Japan, and Cambodia. The Western nations have prospered in the fair-trade environment, and the Soviet Union adopts reforms to allow it to participate.

The Middle East remains a hot-bed. Without a strong sponsor, Israel remains dogged in her defense. Anglo-French support for Syria and Egypt is also limited, with revolts against Western influence in the Gulf region threatening her oil resources. Major Anglo-French military forces are redirected to maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf from the end of the European Cold War to present day.

By the end of the 1990s, the United States remains a viable, but limited economy. Her main trading partners are the poorer states of Latin America, and her wealthy Northern neighbor, Canada. Except for Canada, the Western Hemisphere is generally viewed as a backwater of little consequence in the globe. American has tried to revive her economy and open back up to the world, although this has in many cases led to the exploitation of her resources and labor by French and British mega-corporations, eager to tap into poorly exploited reserves of natural resources.

The last five years have found the Western Europeans battling terrorism stemming largely from their influence and military presence in the Middle East. Russia has retreated militarily to her borders, but has made an aggressive entrance to the world economy parlaying her vast resources and expertise in space technology to effect. China has consolidated her eastern regional hegemony and is beginning to gain steam economically and technologically. The Europeans are the pre-eminent military force on the planet, but this is viewed with suspicion by the other main powers, as she begins to try and extend her influence in the Americas.

The world of 2005 is an unsure place, with a militant and aggressive, but economically powerful West Europe, a vibrant Russia, a growing China, and the backwaters of the Americas and Africa, along with the firy Middle East to provide tension.

Just some musings.....

Josh

I semi agree, but i feel the US would evolve more only because we have the internal resources to promote such things, and a broader population for those ideals.

Even by the 1940's the population base of the United States is rather mixxed, and the geography would of promoted multiple lines of thoughts and innovation.
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Old 01-10-2005, 05:44 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konichiwaneko
I semi agree, but i feel the US would evolve more only because we have the internal resources to promote such things, and a broader population for those ideals.

Even by the 1940's the population base of the United States is rather mixxed, and the geography would of promoted multiple lines of thoughts and innovation.
Yes, I agree with you, but the original question didn't really allow for this.
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Old 01-10-2005, 06:06 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jb2000
Yes, I agree with you, but the original question didn't really allow for this.

Hitler is defeated, Japanese expansion is rebutted... yet the world is left without the United State's fingerprints since then...




That's all post 1945 there
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Old 01-10-2005, 07:23 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konichiwaneko
Hitler is defeated, Japanese expansion is rebutted... yet the world is left without the United State's fingerprints since then...

That's all post 1945 there
Yeah...Irate clarified his original question in post #10:

Quote:
Originally Posted by irateplatypus
sorry, i thought the question was clear from the initial post.

for our discussion, history has unfolded identically to how we know it until 1945... after which is the imagined time when the US has ceased to effect any meaningful change on the world. it could be there... but that's irrelevant to how the rest of the world would have developed.

just think of it as a phantom canada.
Thus what I worked from. Obviously change any of the parameters and it changes the extrapolation...

Josh
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And this is your land, you can't close your eyes to this hypocracy.
Yes this is my land, I won't pretend that it's nothing to do with me.
'Cause this is our land, we can't close our eyes to the things we don't wanna see."

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Old 01-10-2005, 07:31 PM   #35 (permalink)
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I still then stand by what I said, the population base in the US is highly diversified by the 1940's.

The irish and jewish in the northeast, the germanic/swedish in the north, chinese/japanese in the west, so forth and so on.

the only thing we wouldn't have is alaska and hawaii as a state.
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Old 01-11-2005, 07:46 AM   #36 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Konichiwaneko
I still then stand by what I said, the population base in the US is highly diversified by the 1940's.

The irish and jewish in the northeast, the germanic/swedish in the north, chinese/japanese in the west, so forth and so on.

the only thing we wouldn't have is alaska and hawaii as a state.
I do not understand how the ethnic diversity of the USA is at all relevant to this thread?
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Old 01-11-2005, 08:42 AM   #37 (permalink)
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Think of a world without any beef jerky!

I'm intrigued by this thread but a little disappointed by some of the 'off the cuff' answers which seem to have based more on individuals patriotism than through thinking through of the original premise.

Quote:
Hitler is defeated
Therefore, Germany didn't win WWII.

The U.K had been steadily releasing it's empirical hold before then (as pointed out by Zen_Tom) but has never really been a super-power to begin within.
After the war the U.K and Europe would rebuild and form a European Union (just like real life!), whether the U.S is there or not. This union of countries working in cooperation would (and will) benefit thousands if not millions of people. So I don't immediately see why without the U.S (in reality or otherwise) the world would automatically qualify as being 'much worse off'.

Now, leaving politics and patriotism to one side. If the U.S didn't exist after the war then Rap, Grunge, Hip-Hop, House, Elvis, The Beach Boys, Rock & Roll and Motown music would all be words without meaning for us now. Although The Beatles might still be together if they could have taken their spark of creative muse from alternative sources...

Most importantly and feel free to pick me up on this, but there would be no doughnuts and really that would make the world a terribly sad place in which to live...
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Old 01-11-2005, 08:48 AM   #38 (permalink)
 
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i keep reading through the thread and still cant figure out how to play this game because the point of erasing the states (the moment at which it happens in the scenario that begins the thread) does not seem to me workable.

again, by 1945, the americans had already made significant shifts into a cold war framework, starting with the series of delays in invading europe to take pressure off the soviets (harry truman's famous statement "let them bleed each other white" comes to mind)---by 1945, bretton woods was already in place, and with it much of the logic of the postwar economic order--i would think that you would have to back up to make it work, maybe from the spring of 1944. i could see extending the logic of a prewar us--more isolationist, suspicious of international organizations (the league of nations), less obviously interested in empire....what it seems that you would erase is more the post-1945 economic and social orders, what is called fordism--which is generally understood as a remodelling of capitalism around versions of the american model--from the assimilation of trade unions into the status quo through collective bargaining to the extension of the welfare state, to the logic of higher-wage working class jobs to the transformation of consumer credit and ultimate co-optation of traditional working-class politics through the opening up of property ownership as an option.

it gets pretty complicated once you set this kind of thing in motion.
it seems, however, that the logic at the outset was simply to present a coldwar scenario and then erase the states. i do not understand what the objective behind it is--maybe a kind of demonstration of how wonderful the world is now thanks to the fabulousness that is the american system (o yes, look around, how could anything be better than this, the best of all possible worlds?)

which seems without particular interest. the counterfactual game, pointless though it is at certain levels, is more serious than this in consideration of premises. hell, most time-travel stories are as well. in the end, the exercize is about thinking historical causality in a way that does not bring up problems of causality in itself (as category imported from natural sciences into thinking history)
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Old 01-11-2005, 03:41 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yakk
I do not understand how the ethnic diversity of the USA is at all relevant to this thread?
Because unlike many countries throughout history our ethical diversity has influenced our culture and decision. Many technologocical leaps and bounds in our history is made because of the culture and background of the person.

It's well known of asian reverse engineering, german technology, and the various work ethic of those culture. Given the mix of the population and also the amount of natural resources the United states had, we would of been actually probably pretty high in the technology department. As we grow up, those influences affect our point of view. Even simple things as Patriarchal, Matriarchal society effects our outlook. We will still have that in America in the 1940's.

Dispite what people think, the foundation and geography of the United states is an amazing one. With a large natural defense (our oceans) we wouldn't have the problem of internal development which countries like those in Europe had. How many times in history has a country reached such a societal high only to be sacked by it's neighbor. I actually think a closed America would be stronger and more militaristic then what we have now.

With closed borders, our people would of been bred and born on the ideal that our country was strong and not in need of those on the outside. Because of that, population outlook on military endeavors would be look at with Pride and earnest. Conquest would be great because well, we were forcing people into our superior will because well we don't care about what other countries think. Unlike the Japanese though during that period in which the kicked out outsiders, the US would of turned into a monster because we had the resources and knowledge to develop the wheel into one capable of dealing death and destruction while also not lying to ourselves about our ultimate capability.


I will not lie to you, the US was given a damn nice stack of cards. If we became a xenophobic and closed nation after War World II, about this time (2005) I would honestly say about half the world would be bleeding our doctrine.

Have a broader population base would help us reach inside innovations faster, but having the foreign policy we have now, and the contact we have has made the United States more open minded and mature.


Now though and issue we have here is the other side of my speculation. How can a country who doesn't care outsiders even worry about War and conquest of a foreign country? Well I think it's pretty obvious that if someone is born inside a country, bred into it's doctrine, they can be pretty fanatical. I will make many people laugh because I can honestly say that that's how many conservatives are. I know I am. I am almost blindy pro-american sometimes it's not even funny.
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Last edited by Konichiwaneko; 01-11-2005 at 03:53 PM..
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Old 01-11-2005, 06:02 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Interesting post Konichiwaneko and some very good observations. I also consider our diversity one of our greatest strengths. However the originator of this thread asked us to consider the U.S. as non-existent after 1945 for our ideas on how the world might have developed differently.
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