Revolution in Tunisia & Egypt, Protests in Libya, Bahrain, Oman & Yemen - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

roachboy · 01-26-2011, 10:52 AM

here is a translation of a manifesto written in the name of "the egyptian protestors" that outlines a set of demands...at bottom, what these folk want is an end to the mubarak government and the martial law that has enabled it to remain in power since 1981...

Quote:

Manifesto of the Egyptian Protesters

- translated from the "We are all Khalid Said" Facebook group by Alexander Brock

Why are we demonstrating?

Egypt is passing through the worst stage that it has seen throughout its history, in all aspects. Despite reports, which the government mentions, that the situation is improving, the reality is unfortunately quite to the contrary.

Our going out on the 25th of January signifies the beginning of the end: the end of silence, of complacency, and of betrayal happening in our country and the beginning of a new chapter of rising up and demanding our rights. The 25th of January is not a revolution in the sense of a 'coup'; rather, it is a revolution against the government so that we can say that we have started, all of us, paying attention to our situation and we will take every single one of our rights, and we will not be silent after today.

There are 30 million Egyptians sick with depression, a million and a half of whom are physically depressed, and more than 100,000 suicide attempts throughout the year 2009, which resulted 5,000 deaths.

We have 48 million poor citizens, 2.5 million of whom live in extreme poverty. We have 12 million Egyptians without lodging, 1.5 million of whom live in the graveyard.

There is systematic corruption which has led to the existence of nothing but more corruption, a business valued at 39 billion EGP in only one year. Egypt ranks 115th out of 139 nations in a scholarly report on governmental corruption.

There are more than 3 million unemployed youth, and the unemployment rate among its youth exceeds 30%. Egypt ranks dead last out of 139 nations in its rate of transparency for employment.

We have the world's highest infantile mortality rate, 50 out of 1000 born. Approximately half of Egypt's children are anemic, and 8 million people are infected with HIV. We have an annual number of 100,000 diagnosed with cancer because of pollution and water quality alone. We have one ambulance for every 35,000 people.

In Egypt, the State of Emergency law has caused the deaths of dozens of Egyptians from torture, and has resulted in the unlawful arrest of thousands of people without any legal justification.

And because of the use of the security forces to censor politicians, and abort their activities, the result has been fraudulent parliamentary elections, leaving the current ruling party with more than 90% of parliamentary seats

What are our demands?

1. Confronting the problem of poverty

2. Cancellation of the State of Emergency Law, which has been in place since 1981.

3. The removal of Interior Minister Habib al-Adly

4. A limitation on presidential terms to 2 successive terms

this link takes you to a live blog at the guardian which summarizes events and coverage(s) of them:

Protests in Egypt - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

which gives you an idea of what's going on if you are not following.

notice that the united states is watching to see which way the wind blows, but appears to be reluctant to throw mubarak under the bus because mubarak has been willing to play ball with american policies toward israel. one more reason for mubarak to go.

this is an on-the-fly analysis of yesterday's protests in cairo:

Egypt protests are breaking new ground | Simon Tisdall | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

as part of the wikileaks state department offering, this information about mubarak:

Wikileaks: Egypt's Mubarak Likely to Remain in Office for Life | Middle East | English

which parallels in many ways the information contained in the same offering about the corruption amongst the (now former president) ben ali's family.

if you haven't been following, this wikipedia link is a useful overview of what happened in tunisia:

2010?2011 Tunisian uprising - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

the transition there is not over yet, btw. things are still pretty fluid.

===

both these events (and the turmoil that's been caused by the documents that surfaced over the past days about the obama administration selling out the palestinian peace process, caving in---again----to the israeli right) seem to me positive outcomes of the wikileaks phenomenon.

in both cases, old and corrupt authoritarian regimes have been shaken fundamentally by a population that has, in the main, found many of its more cynical/accurate perceptions of the governments confirmed.

the tunisian people rid themselves of ben ali. this is a good thing.

what's happening in egypt is not at this point as clear-cut, primarily because, while there are reports that mubarak and his family have already left the country, it's clear at this point that the government imagines that it can contain what's happening.

there's been some fatalities and about 900 arrests at this point.

what do you make of what's happening?
what kind of coverage are you seeing in the american press of it?
why do you think that coverage is as it is?

how do you see things playing out in egypt?

feel free to post information that you find which seems interesting.
i'm not sure about putting up background information on mubarak and the situations in egypt more broadly--i'll hold off for now...

Baraka_Guru · 01-26-2011, 11:17 AM

I don't a have much to say at this point, as I'm slowly digesting the information that's coming out of both places.

However, I've read somewhere that the Egypt protests were, at least in part, inspired by the events in Tunisia. You brought up American media, but I think the media in general is an interesting aspect in this.

What I suspect is that the Internet and social media are a big factor in how these events have unfolded. The transmission of information, the reaching of a consensus among thousands, and the galvanization/mobilization of the public has never been more quick and powerful since the advent of these technologies and the adoption of them as the primary means of communication and social sharing.

And then you throw things like WikiLeaks into the mix.

I suppose this means that it's become much, much more difficult to be authoritarian. Ask the Chinese.

roachboy · 01-26-2011, 12:02 PM

just a quick note on media coverage: yesterday there was a lot of comment from egypt about the lack of coverage from al jazeera of the protests. this was in marked contrast to the extensive coverage given the tunisian protests/revolution. the speculative explanation is not surprising: people thought that the mubarak government had made a deal with that of qatar...

al jazeera is still not giving egypt much space, really---but there's more than there was yesterday.

there's little doubt that not only more centralized media forms are playing a basic role---decentralized media is pivotal.

this is an interesting piece that i just stumbled across...it's arguing that ben ali was a perfect client for the united states. so the imbrication between american foreign policy and repressive dictatorships is coming to the fore:

Ben Ali Tunisia was model US client - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

while all the blah blah blah about "freedom" from the empire turns to wood.

this could be a very complicated situation for us realpolitik...it should be interesting to watch this play out. you know, for the theater.

===================

btw---here's another blog compendium, from the ny times. it includes names of some of the bloggers/twitter accounts, links to a yfrog page with photos of tuesday's demos, and links to some youtube-hosted footage.

Egyptian Bloggers Report on New Unrest - NYTimes.com

====================

a mix of interesting stuff, rumor, chaos...#Jan25 on twitter....

Twitter / Search

dlish · 01-26-2011, 08:00 PM

here in the UAE it's headline news along with the political woes of Lebanon over the last few days. i dont watch much TV, so i dont know what al jazeera is or isnt broadcasting, but the feeling im getting here is that most arab governments are watching this closely. Most governments here are run as autocracies, and any sort of protest would be a challenge to its right to rule.

despite the protests, i dont see anything coming from this protest for the time being. I think the pivotal point is going to come about when Mubarak dies and its time to pass the mantle on. mubarak's son isnt very popular in egypt and doesnt have the popular support of the people or the government. and since he is not from a military background, doesnt have the support of the military.

i see a lot of commotion when Hosni breathes his last, and its not going to be pretty i dont think.

roachboy · 01-26-2011, 08:22 PM

i read somewhere--twitter i think---that there are something on the order of 1.6 million people involved with "security" in egypt.
there are 83 milliion people in egypt. around 90% are in cairo.

it's hard to say what a tipping point is in this kind of situation. it certainly appears at the moment that mubarak (or the apparatus that owes their various positions to him) thinks they can fight whatever it is that they are fighting...by which i mean that it may be that the state is locked into a dynamic they do not quite see (maybe) in which the attempts to fight the popular movement spread the popular movement.

this is the problem/limit of direct repression.

on the other hand, it's entirely possible that you're right and mubarak regime can maintain itself in place until hosni buys the farm.

there are calls racing around for a show of popular dissent on friday afternoon that'd be bigger than tuesday. no way at this point to know how that'll play out, but it's out there.

Seaver · 01-26-2011, 08:36 PM

I believe the military will again decide the fate of the Egyptian government. Their budget is extremely large for their GDP, and is about the only political force which isn't fractured into a thousand fragments at the moment. The Muslim Brotherhood is organized, but their general message doesn't strike a chord with most Egyptians at the moment... but it's a kind of lesser of two evils that might catch some ground if things aren't guided well.

Really, with all the money/training/etc we've given to Egypt for free to ensure they keep the peace with Israel, I don't see anything happening without the military brass deciding and green-lighting.

roachboy · 01-27-2011, 05:24 AM

thought it might be interesting to post this (and maybe others)...a very dear friend of mine and excellent writer is living in cairo. she's started documenting her experience of the protests and posting it as notes on facebook. here's one.

Quote:

This evening in downtown Cairo (27-1-11)
by Amira Hanafi on Wednesday, January 26, 2011 at 5:24pm

I went downtown this afternoon to visit a friend who lives off Sheikh Rihan Street in downtown Cairo, where the Ministry of the Interior is located. I got dropped off at the head of the street since it was closed to traffic. At every block there was a police barrier, where riot police decked out in black with black batons and black helmets leisurely leaned against the black and white fences, chatting. They were at every intersection, looking a bit bored. When I reached the block where the Ministry is located, a man approached me, asking "What is your name?" (in English). "Amira," I replied, and his face switched a little, and his language switched, to Arabic..."Are you Egyptian?" "American," I said, and he asked to look in my bag, so I showed it to him, and I passed down the block. A black car exited through the gates of the Ministry and drove slowly towards Midan Feleki.

We ate pasta, tuna fish, tomatoes, homegrown onions, oranges and raisins, and my friend told me about yesterday's protest. He said that where he started, there were about 7 people. Then they were 200. Then they walked and joined a couple thousand in Midan Tahrir. Then, every half hour, another couple of thousand showed up, until the square was full. He breathed tear gas and coughed for one hour. He grabbed a baton from an officer's arm as he was beating a man, and threatened him. The officer was scared. He went home to take a nap. He went back out again later.

We went out, too, to survey downtown. We walked toward Midan Feleki, noting the heavy traffic and the crowds on the street. Normal crowds--people waiting to cross, people buying and eating and walking. The riot police were everywhere, standing around. One commented to another on my hand-rolled cigarette and they laughed. "Where are you from?" someone called to us. A normal downtown Cairo evening. We stopped into Horreya where I asked some friends if they knew about any apartments. We went to sit in a coffeeshop and talked to some writers.

After a couple of hours drinking tea, a woman came by and sat near us. She had been beaten by the police and was holding her hand against her cheek - she seemed in pain. They had taken her mobile phone. Then we heard sirens. On a parallel street, some people were being chased by police. We left the coffeeshop. We went towards Midan Tahrir. On a bus, a man was being beaten by a police officer. We turned away and my friend said, "Just walk normally." We walked towards a sea of riot police, who started to charge down the street, shouting and waving their batons. "Just keep walking," my friend said. They stormed past us. As we reached the intersection just before the Midan, we saw a line of riot police, perhaps three persons deep, holding up their plastic shields. We stood on the corner for a few moments, contemplating the blockade. I didn't take out my camera from inside my jacket. We turned the corner and walked back toward Midan Feleki.

We stopped in a snack shop and I bought Chinese crackers. On the TV, there was a screaming crowd and more riot police. We walked further and stopped to drink juice. Images of yesterday's protest held the attention of the people in the shop. I got on the Metro at Mohamed Naguib and came home.

roachboy · 01-27-2011, 09:32 AM

this is a webspace from one of the main organizational nodes within the egyptian maybe-revolution (one can always hope)

We are all Khaled Said. Working against torture and inhuman treatment of Egyptians in their own country. Standing up against corruption in Egypt.

very interesting updates.

seaver: while in the abstract you are correct, there is a point past which it isn't possible for the military to hold a situation together, particularly if there are divisions within the military organizationally (by which i mean divisions that are not necessarily factions within the command, though that's a possibility as well).

the protests this afternoon---which should be on now---will be interesting.

---------- Post added at 05:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:52 PM ----------

here's a collection of slogans from tuesday and wednesday's protests, transcribed and translated:

The Angry Arab News Service/????? ????? ?????? ??????: Egyptian slogans

and another link to the guardian's live blog:

Protests in Egypt - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

the protests appear to be bigger and more widespread. there is a report that el-baradi has arrived in cairo, which makes this a more explosive confrontation with mubarak regime because the main opposition leader is now in the country.

this is a state dept page about egypt that gives some basic numbers concerning us aid to egypt.
Egypt

note the extent of support for the military.
think about who's running the show.

tomorrow should be interesting.

Baraka_Guru · 01-27-2011, 09:41 AM

It's all very interesting. It's interesting to see how the situations in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen all seem to derive from the same source of social power in the people: they are realizing they have power in coordinated movement against corruption and authoritarianism, and this is reinforced by what they see beyond their own situations....all happening at once it seems.

And I'll reiterate: I cannot see how this sort of thing could happen as such without the power of the Internet and social media. (With the exception, perhaps, of Yemen, whose population is quite impoverished compared to Tunisia and Egypt....but you never know.)

It would seem that a long history of authoritarianism in a few parts of the Arab world could very well come to an end. If only we could see this happen in the oil-rich nations.

NYTimes.com - Thousands Rally Against Government in Yemen

roachboy · 01-27-2011, 09:46 AM

if it happens there, maybe it can happen in the united states.

roachboy · 01-27-2011, 01:57 PM

i just got this from my friend in egypt a couple minutes ago. it gives an idea of where things may be heading:

Quote:

Please circulate as wide as possible

A Call to the People and Governments of the Free World

We call upon all of you to support the Egyptian people's demands for a
good life, liberty and an end of despotism. We call upon you to urge
this dictatorial regime to stop its bloodshed of the Egyptian people,
exercised throughout the Egyptian cities, on top of which comes the
city of Suez. We believe that the material and moral support offered
to the Egyptian regime, by the American government and European
governments, has helped to suppress the Egyptian people.

We hereby call upon the people of the free world to support the
Egyptian people's non-violent revolution against corruption and
tyranny. We also call upon civil society organisations in America,
Europe and the whole world to express their solidarity with Egypt,
through holding public demonstrations, particularly on People's Anger
Day (28/01/2011), and by denouncing the use of violence against the
people.

We hope that you will all support our demands for freedom, justice and
peaceful change.

Egyptian National Coalition

dlish · 01-27-2011, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

It would seem that a long history of authoritarianism in a few parts of the Arab world could very well come to an end. If only we could see this happen in the oil-rich nations.

NYTimes.com - Thousands Rally Against Government in Yemen

be careful what you wish for. just dont complain when the price of oil triples overnight.

a lot of what is happening at the moment is a result of western imperilism. propping up dictators, despots, and implementing pseudo-democracy and one man shows seemed to have been the order of the day when the middle east was being carved up.

this was only a matter of time, but will definately put gulf nations at risk of being toppled. i have no doubt that the oil rich gulf nations will see this through, largely because the revolt is stamping out poverty and corruption. Both of which are probably lowest out of all arab nations, which wins the oil rich gulf states favour and support of their people.

Charlatan · 01-27-2011, 08:20 PM

oil rich nations have been able to buy off their opposition since oil became a useful commodity. The only nations that have seen political reform in the middle east (Iraq and Iran aside) have been the ones without oil (Lebanon and Bahrain come to mind).

mixedmedia · 01-27-2011, 08:32 PM

I am a bit ashamed to say that I haven't been following the news the last few weeks. What is happening is just starting to capture my attention (and my imagination) only today. I look forward to learning more about it. thanks for the links.

dlish · 01-27-2011, 09:24 PM

democracy is not really democracy in lebanon. i'm not so sure how much exposure this had had in western press, but the recent toppling of the government by hezbollah as a political motive for Hairir's support of the UN report on Lebanon is worrysome.

With Hariri now replaced with the hezbollah backed Mikati, i can only pray and weep for lebanon.

as much as the west wants to see many of these governments go, i think an immediate overhaul of arab nations is definately not a wise decision for neither the east nor the west. the political vacuum this will leave can only leave more room for fundamentalists to get a stronghold in government.

Willravel · 01-27-2011, 09:39 PM

At what point does a political riot become a revolution?

Seaver · 01-27-2011, 10:05 PM

Quote:

be careful what you wish for. just dont complain when the price of oil triples overnight.

a lot of what is happening at the moment is a result of western imperilism. propping up dictators, despots, and implementing pseudo-democracy and one man shows seemed to have been the order of the day when the middle east was being carved up.

Read more: http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/tilted-...#ixzz1CJ4F3dcl

Yeah I've heard that before, time and time again. Unfortunately it just doesn't face reality when it comes to Egypt and Yemen (Tunisia is... unique).

Egypt is still ruled by the Socialist Government set by themselves. Yeah we give the government money, arms, and training... but that's simply the carrot to prevent them from re-re-re-invading Israel. Aside from Israel we don't ask anything of them nor interfere.

Yemen is another government ruled completely by the Arabs in their own revolution. Hell this one is easier to pin on the Saudis and Egyptians as they were the power brokers in the decade long civil war. Each one playing Yemen to help suit their own needs and desires.

If you ask me, as true as it is that England/France divided the M.E. along lines that never existed... at this point they've settled themselves out accordingly. No one is alive today from that point, they've all developed their own identities as well as toyed (and gave up on) Pan-Arabism. At this point it's whether or not they can have freedoms without letting the crazies take over as seen in Turkey, or if it'll dissolve and raise new dictatorships as seen in early Iraq.

roachboy · 01-28-2011, 05:19 AM

gee you'd think that this democracy via the domino theory idea would be welcomed by the united states...but of course no, because such things are just words and what really matters is that the mubarak government continue to play nice with the united states over it's degenerate and retrograde policies toward israel/palestine. so american-sponsored "freedom" is 30 years of martial law, corruption at an unimaginable scale, sclerosis at almost every level. people are rightly sick of it.

of course the government tries to pin things on the muslim brotherhood because they play well with the american line of trying to appear to support democratic movements while in fact being a straight-up neo-colonial imperial power and supporting any regime no matter how foul, so long as what is says can be squared with what the americans say in order to sell empire as if it were something else.

at this point, the muslim brotherhood is not significantly involved in the protests. more or less the entire leadership was arrested over night in any event.

i do not have a sense of el baradi's support more broadly.* i sometimes get the idea that he is a television figure, someone that appeals to news outlets because having a head to follow around makes things easier for tv viewers to follow.

this appears to be a very widespread popular revolt that's unfolding largely on generational lines. i don't see it as necessarily being about "the crazies"---i think that's the sort of thinking that the mubarak regime would like to see out there because it justifies what they;re doing right now as we speak.

protest becomes revolution when the regime caves in.
personally, i hope we see the end of hosni mubarak's 30 year state of emergency very soon.

meanwhile, the united states, those heros of democracy, continue to equivocate publicly.

but i wonder what the back channels are like.

*el baradi likely represents (and helps to coalesce) divisions within the egyptian socio-economic elites. and he's symbolically interesting. the intersections of this ore elite-driven dissent and the popular movements of this past week could be interesting, assuming that el baradi doesn't find himself being suicided out a window or some such.

aceventura3 · 01-28-2011, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

meanwhile, the united states, those heros of democracy, continue to equivocate publicly.

Dismissing that Obama's nature and his administration is to equivocate, are you suggesting that you want US intervention? If so, what do you want the US to do?

Willravel · 01-28-2011, 09:33 AM

I'm going to post something I read this morning on Reddit that was incredibly helpful in explaining in basic terms the background and context for the current situation:

Quote:

The Catalyst: Tunisia[,] a country in Northern Africa[,] was ruled by a repressive and dictatorial regime led by President Ben Ali. At the end of 2010, a series of riots broke out throughout Tunisia, collectively termed the "Jasmine Revolution." The root causes are considered to be mass unemployment, widespread corruption, appalling living conditions and the governments propensity to squash free speech. This resulted in President Ben Ali dissolving the government, a victory for the revolutionaries.

Regional results: In the region, the success of the Tunisian revolution led to widespread instability. It had previously been considered axiomatic that regional dictatorships were too stable to fall. The Tunisian revolution proved otherwise and soon protests began all over the region, most strongly in Algeria, Yemen and Egypt.

Egypt: The Egyptian youth were mobilized by the example set by the Tunisian revolution. Many suggested that the upcoming 25th of January 'National Police Day' be instead used as a massive [nationwide] protest against corruption. Other causes for the unrest have been the widespread brutality of the Egyptian police and military (Egypt is basically a dictatorship because the country is under 'Emergency law' and has been since 1967), the crippling poverty in the country and President Mubarak himself.

The Egyptian Response: The Egyptian police and military have been very heavy handed in responding to the protests. A huge number of protestors have been beaten by police and plain clothes secret police officers. Three have been confirmed killed at the time of this writing. In an effort to stop the protestors utilizing Facebook and Twitter to organize and get their message out, Egypt shut down access to those two sites and now, basically unplugged the country from the internet entirely.

Friday: This Friday will see a pivotal moment in the Egyptian revolution as a mass protest has been called after traditional Friday prayers. The Egyptians have called for a "Million Man March" but the chaos in the country and the unpredictability of what's going on makes it difficult to even guess at what will actually transpire.

Predictions: Analysts are split as to what will happen in Egypt. There seems to be a concensus that unlike Tunisia, whose military was underpaid, had terrible morale and had little stake in the Police State, the Egyptian army is far more likely to support the Mubarak regime. If the support of the armed forces wavers (as the police support already has, on occasion) then a very real revolution is on the cards.

The U.S in the Region: If you're American and wondering, the U.S has a lot of skin in the game. Mubarak has received a huge amount of aid from the United States. Egypt is one of the only Middle Eastern countries to have something approaching a lasting peace treaty with Israel, and Mubarak is generally considered to be a 'friend of the West' by the standards of his fellow leaders in the region. Many of the protesters see the U.S as propping up Mubarak's regime. If the revolution succeeds, any popular democracy in Egypt is almost certainly going produce leaders with anti-American platforms. Further, one of the largest opposition groups in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is considered a terrorist organization and a supporter of terrorism by the Russian Federation and is typically anti-west in its rhetoric.

Source

what do you make of what's happening?
It's incredible. People who have been living under the iron fist of tyranny are rising up en masse to fight for their liberty. It's inspiring. It's also a bit terrifying. A lot of people have been hurt so far, and even a few deaths. This is only going to increase in the coming days. My thoughts are with the revolutionaries. It gives me hope that the citizenry of a country under the rule of such a government can still stand up for what they believe in. I sincerely hope they succeed.

what kind of coverage are you seeing in the american press of it?
It's been really bizarre. They have been covering it, which is a bit more than I expected, but the information being released seems highly detached and it's being supplied with little to no context. While President Obama did mention some vague support in his State of the Union, I'm not seeing the broad support I'd like for the revolutionaries.

why do you think that coverage is as it is?
Forgive the generalization, but the American media is stupid. If they've decided to care, they're probably scrambling to get more information despite the fact it's been widely available the whole time.

how do you see things playing out in egypt?
I honestly don't know. As was said in the above quote, Egypt is not Tunisia in that it has a powerful military and police force who are likely to want to protect the status quo. Still, the people of Egypt appear very much hungry for change and the fact that the Egyptian police and government have been so heavy-handed in their response is likely to spur on more revolution. I'd give it 50/50 at this point, until more information starts coming out.

roachboy · 01-28-2011, 09:46 AM

intervene? direct american military intervention in egypt? are you high?

a few minutes ago, hillary clinton made a statement....folk are interpreting it as a shift toward this (this is the interpretation i am biting from the guardian blog--the material its based on can be found at the linked site that follows)

Quote:

It looks to me as if Clinton is angling for a negotiated departure by Mubarak, accompanied by an increase in political freedom. I think the US is aiming to structure the solution in a way that would protect its key interests: the peace treaty with Israel, the Suez canal, and co-operation against terrorism.

Protests in Egypt - live updates | News | guardian.co.uk

egypt is the second largest recipient of american military aid in the world.
it is frankly seen as payment for egyptian support of the degenerate policy the americans have adopted toward palestine/israel.

so long as the americans continued to express support for mubarak, directly and indirectly, the military would be likely to support the government---prop it up after 30 years of unimaginably corrupt state-of-emergency rule.

this is the first indication at all that the united states is not simply doing what it's done for years--talk the blah blah blah of "freedom" and "democracy" while supporting brutal dictatorships wherever and whenever other policy interests are served. but it's also clear that this has come after the us has been equivocating---they want to see which way the wind blows and are trying to navigate a way to contain all this revolt stuff, to channel it their way.

i would prefer to see the acceleration of the collapse of the american empire and the logic that allows this residual cold-war foulness to continue.

but at this point things are obviously very fluid and getting decent information is a problem. closest you'll find is al jazeera. this link takes you to their live feed:

Al Jazeera English: Live Stream - Watch Now - Al Jazeera English

which continues to put american infotainment "news" to shame.

most communication remains cut off---the net is largely blocked into and out of egypt, cellphone communications as well....

aceventura3 · 01-28-2011, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

intervene? direct american military intervention in egypt? are you high?

Why do I need to be high? You made a comment that I found interesting and I asked you a question about it.

I never suggested to know what is going on or why. The complexity in the dynamics of this issue in my view does not lend itself to knee-jerk reaction. I don't know or understand our President's philosophy or plan on these types of issues. I think Bush was a bit more clear, but his approach was thoroughly rejected in 2008. I am curious to know what "we" want and why.

roachboy · 01-28-2011, 11:49 AM

i just saw this from the associated press:

Quote:

An Obama administration official says the US will review its $1.5bn in aid to Egypt based on events unfolding in the country, where the authoritarian government is struggling to extinguish huge and growing street protests.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the situation. Egypt has been a key US ally in the volatile region. US officials are now increasing calls on President Hosni Mubarak, the target of the protesters, to respond with restraint and reverse steps taken to cut off the protesters' ability to communicate.

The decision to review assistance to Egypt is a significant step as the US seeks to balance the desire to maintain stability in the region with a recognition of the unexpected scope and uncertain outcome of the protests.

link same as above, from the guardian live blog/aggregator.

if this is accurate, then this is the first potential tipping point. the americans are in a position to split the army away from mubarak. the wind seems to be blowing in that direction.

but the situation is still fluid.

interesting stuff.

aceventura3 · 01-28-2011, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

if this is accurate, then this is the first potential tipping point. the americans are in a position to split the army away from mubarak. the wind seems to be blowing in that direction.

This is a political forum and I again ask you a political question based on the comments in your posting. Do you support US intervention (intervention can mean things other than military use)? If so, why and what do you want done?

In the past I have developed a belief that most here feel the US should not get involved in the internal matters in other nations and i would have thought that many here would be of the belief that past US involvement may be a contributing factor to the current conflict. That is the basis of my question.

roachboy · 01-28-2011, 12:37 PM

the us is already heavily involved with egypt. they've been instrumental in propping up mubarak for most of the 30 years of martial law he's inflicted on the egyptian people. like seaver pointed out above, the main institution through which this involvement has played out is the military. egypt is the second largest recipient of us aid, behind israel. it is clear---the wikileaks cables on this do it if it wasn't--but it was clear--that this aid owes everything to egypt's having signed a treaty with israel and in so doing become a de facto buffer in defense of american policy toward israel in the region. in exchange for that, the americans overlook appalling human rights abuses except when it suits them as under the bush regime to send people being extraordinarily renditioned so that the egyptians can fuck them up.

the obama administration had moved more publicly close to mubarak after a period of relative distance maintained by the bush people, presumably because if you're going to exploit the fact of torture you need to appear to deplore it. because that's how we roll.

so the problem for the united states is pretty obvious---maintaining position across what could be a revolution.

what faux news is "reporting" on this is idiotic--that "groups linked to al-qeada could come to power"----a transparent reference to the muslim brotherhood, the routine evocation of which has rarely if ever failed to turn on the financial "counter-terrorism" spigot from the americans. but the fact is that they've had nothing to do with these protests---and when they did come out in support of them yesterday, the entire leadership was almost immediately arrested.

so that's out.

i dont know enough about exactly what el baradi's constiuency is to say much about the role he might play, assuming that he doesn't meet with some unfortunate accident in the next day or two.

but i do think the americans are hoping to manoever the army into acting independently of mubarak's government by signaling that the funding is up for review as a result of how the next days go. or the army could act in support of the government if the wind blows that way.

like dlilsh said, all this is a direct consequence of american imperial policies and logic. it's exactly the opposite of the (empty) language of "Freedom" that people who live on this side of the mirror like to flatter themselves by thinking that the united states stands for. this, the opposite side of the mirror, is far more real.

anyway, that's kinda where i think things are.

aceventura3 · 01-28-2011, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

anyway, that's kinda where i think things are.

You stated that the US continues to "equivocate publicly" which contrary to "cowboy diplomacy" may be the exact correct thing to do (even if it is accidental rather than purposeful), I am not sure, but what I read into your comment was that you thought it was the exact wrong thing to be doing. Your response is not clear.

filtherton · 01-28-2011, 02:07 PM

Quick! Somebody find a way to turn this into a futile argument about nothing in particular. I bet we end up talking about boats.

Seaver · 01-28-2011, 06:09 PM

Mubarak is stepping down. I'm very surprised the Egyptian Military has stayed neutral, they would have been the defacto crown-assigner... and they stayed out of it. I believe the brass will ensure the Muslim Brotherhood stays suppressed and lets it roll.

Good for the Egyptians, the vast majority of the country are smart enough to stay secular... and would help be a beacon to the rest of the regions.

Baraka_Guru · 01-28-2011, 06:23 PM

Mubarak isn't stepping down; he's replacing the government.

He's continuing his presidency. He's appointing another government.

It's a mockery of democracy.

Expect more Egyptians in the streets on Saturday. They won't be appeased by this. They want Mubarak out.

ottopilot · 01-28-2011, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aceventura3

This is a political forum and I again ask you a political question based on the comments in your posting. Do you support US intervention (intervention can mean things other than military use)? If so, why and what do you want done?

In the past I have developed a belief that most here feel the US should not get involved in the internal matters in other nations and i would have thought that many here would be of the belief that past US involvement may be a contributing factor to the current conflict. That is the basis of my question.

Ace, pardon my interruption. You've posed an interesting question... and as I consider scenarios where we might become engaged as an influence of good, my realization is not at all what I had expected, especially at this time in my life ...

In answering your question: "Do you support US intervention (intervention can mean things other than military use)?" I want to say YES. We should absolutely feel compelled to intervene in situations like this... as should all nations of honor. But we... apparently (due to the century-long meddling of our combined leadership) have "none".

I can't see where our attempts at diplomacy can ever be trusted due to actions under the current and past (several) administrations. I believe we are a nation of generally good and honest people. I believe "we" would never knowingly support the things that have been done in our names. This must change.

... I'm out of time and should better explain my view ... but I'll need to let it go for now.

BTW - I don't always agree with what you have to say, but appreciate your integrity in these debates. You never seem to get down in the gutter. It's tough not to sometimes, maybe we can all aspire to something more honorable in our daily lives and pass it on.

Baraka_Guru · 01-28-2011, 08:05 PM

Some commentary on Mubarak's decision to retain power:

Quote:

Mubarak’s strongman-approach to revolts hardly surprising

SONIA VERMA
The Associated Press
Published Friday, Jan. 28, 2011 5:32PM EST
Last updated Friday, Jan. 28, 2011 10:19PM EST

To protesters, Hosni Mubarak’s decision to deploy the army and retain his power is infuriating, but those who know him best are not surprised.

His strategy, they say, is consistent with a predictable pattern honed over thirty years of ironclad rule.

“He is not the kind of person who is going to walk away from this,” said Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt who knows Mr. Mubarak well.

“He is a tough fighter and he believes that he has done the best for Egypt that could be done,” he said.

Mr. Mubarak used a speech last night to reinforce his image as a strongman in a way that was entirely consistent with his leadership style, analysts said.

The 82-year-old leader, who is rarely seen in public, has always taken a tough approach to turmoil and the stunning demonstrations that have unfolded in Egypt over the last few days appear to have done nothing to change that.

Part of Mr. Mubarak’s approach has to do with his past. President since 1981, he has always thought of himself as a military man, having served as commander of the air force during the 1967 defeat by Israel.

The closest advisers to him as leader of Egypt have tended to hail from the upper echelons of the military, such as Omar Suleiman, his intelligence chief, and Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, his defence minister and chief of staff. Lieutenant General Sami Enan, the chief of staff of Egypt’s armed forces, flew back to Cairo on Friday from Washington where he was leading a delegation in talks.

In the past, the president has dealt with unrest by using his security forces to restore order. The military itself tends to be silent on political matters which are left to the Mubarak clan.

Indeed, Mr. Mubarak has always been careful not to cede too much control to anyone, observers say, managing to keep his hold on power, in part, by refusing to groom a successor.

He does not, for example, have a vice-president or any heir apparent besides his son, Gamal, a businessman who is rising through the ranks of his party.

Mr. Mubarak has meanwhile crushed opposition by shaping political institutions to bolster his own party and stifle others.

Elections are tightly controlled by the government and the ruling party, and in the absence of any viable opposition, the party’s candidate is sure to win. The strategy has bolstered Mr. Mubarak’s power but resulted in him being disconnected from Egyptians.

“He has tremendous disdain for people who are calling for change,” said Stephen Cook, a senior fellow with the Council of Foreign Relations who just returned to New York from Cairo and is writing a book about Egypt.

“He has built this country that is on the verge of an economic breakthrough. Someone who was not filled with so much hubris would have responded to this crisis differently. He clearly is out of touch,” said Mr. Cook, who spent several days in the streets speaking with protesters about their demands.

The tenor of current protests, analysts say, caught Mr. Mubarak off guard.

Many believe he remains confident the protests will simply die down, like smaller scale demonstrations of the past.

“He believes that he still maintains the support of the overwhelming majority of Egyptians,” Mr. Kurtzer said.

“He thinks that with enough government resolve and determination, including a willingness to use force to put down demonstrations, the demonstrations will stop and then and only then will he consider whether there’s some changes that have to be made,” he added.

While President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s ouster in Tunisia emboldened Egyptian protesters, it also served as a warning to Mr. Mubarak who is wary of repeating the mistakes that led to that regime’s downfall.

Mr. Ben Ali used a television appearance to offer a concession, saying to the population: “I understand you.” Mr. Mubarak has decided instead to retrench, vowing to reform his government as only he sees fit and to crack down on protesters by sending the army into the streets.

Some observers predict he might lift Egypt’s much hated emergency-rule, which has lasted nearly as long as his regime. He could also suppress opposition by tinkering with food prices or the minimum wage.

“Mr. Mubarak’s regime is considerably stronger and more important than the Tunisian regime and for that reason alone, the notion that it will quickly collapse is hard to credit,” said Roger Hardy, a Middle East expert and public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School.

“But regardless of what happens now, the Mubarak family has essentially lost credibility. The ruling family is in a weak position. The security forces are strong. This is a new world for Mr. Mubarak,” he said.

Mubarak's strongman-approach to revolts hardly surprising - The Globe and Mail

roachboy · 01-29-2011, 09:17 AM

this is one of those moments that can take someone in the states whose viewpoint is of the side of the mirror that people are told to look at here and shift them by giving them a clear view of the opposite side of that mirror....you can see the american imperial order at work, you can see how it has operated and how it continues to operate. you can see the importance of repressive, brutal tyrants like hosni mubarak for american policy. you can see how this has transcended the superficial differences between the two conservative parties that divide power amongst themselves in the american oligarchy. you can see why people around the world simply do not believe that the united states stands for any of the things it claims to stand for---how could they? ho could people demonstrating in cairo tell themselves that the american government supports their aspirations for freedom when they **know** that the united states has supported mubarak, funded and armed mubarak's regime?

fortunately almost everywhere there is still a distinction drawn between the american state/empire and the people who live in the united states---so if you hear infotainment stream talking heads say "they hate us" it's inevitably a lie---people hate the american empire, and rightly so. it should burn, and burn it will. but that empire is not the only possibility for the united states.

i maintain the pollyanna belief that people in the states will be inspired by people in cairo and will dissolve the neo-liberal oligarchy before it's incoherence dissolves us.

there's no hope for the "intervention" in egypt. i don't even know what that would mean. the united states is acting in/on egypt now in an attempt to maintain some control regardless of what happens---aligning with the army but not quite coming out against mubarak---empty blah blah blah in vague support of the people but nothing too strong....

i would like to see the united states come out clearly against mubarak.

time to go hosni dear. retire. buh-bye.

meanwhile, back in egypt:

Egypt protests - live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

Quote:

The Egyptian Nobel prize-winning novelist Ahdaf Soueif gives an eyewitness account of yesterday's protests:

If I were not writing this, I would still be out on the street. Every single person I know is out there; people who have never been to protests are wrapping scarves around their faces and learning that sniffing vinegar helps you get through teargas.

Once, a long time ago, my then young son, watching a young man run to help an old man who had dropped a bag in the middle of the street, said: 'The thing about Egypt is that everyone is very individual, but also part of a great co-operative project'. Today, we are doing what we do best, and what this regime has tried to destroy: we have come together, as individuals, in a great co-operative effort to reclaim our country.

Baraka_Guru · 01-29-2011, 09:27 AM

That's an commendable belief, roachboy.

Unfortunately, those who are most likely to revolt in America have in mind some kind of libertarian utopia.

Derwood · 01-29-2011, 09:37 AM

The situation in Cairo looks like dksuddeth's wet dream

roachboy · 01-29-2011, 10:41 AM

btw--i just flipped on cnn for the first time in many months...after watching al jazeera's coverage off and on yesterday (until i had to wrest my life back for a while)...and the low level of the coverage is shocking. it's shallowness, it's stupidity--but **especially** the compulsive use of words like "riot" "anarchy" "looting" "fear" and "al qeada"

this is the response of american corporate infotainment to popular uprising---WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN TO OUR STUFF? WHERE ARE THE POLICE? BE AFRAID FOR YOUR STUFF. STAY ON YOUR COUCH IN FRONT OF THE TV WHERE IT'S SAFE. FREEDOM IS THE FREEDOM TO WATCH TV ON YOUR COUCH. DO NOTHING. SCARY SCARY CRIMINALS BAD. PEOPLE WHO DEMAND FREEDOM WANT TO STEAL YOUR SHIT. SCARY FREEDOM BAD. STAY INSIDE WHERE THE COMMERCIALS ARE. SCARY BAD RIOT CHAOS BAD.

dlish · 01-29-2011, 10:57 AM

Mubarak has taken the unprecedanted move of naming a vice president. the first time he's ever done that during his presidency.

im currently watching al jazeera, and Tahrir Square it still full of thousands of demonstrators, but outside in the suburbs, looting and shootings have changed the landscape of the protest. some communities have set up 'neighbourhood watch' groups to protect their suburbs from looters and thugs. There's also reports coming in right now of thugs cutting off water to suburbs. it looks like law and order has totally broken down. this is a scary situation.

the body count on cnn of 25 dead is way understated. al jazeera has shown images of the dead in the morgues. in one morgue alone in Al Salam city, there are 15 dead (by gunfire) as reported by one al Jazeera reporter. Another reporter has reported 15 and 23 dead respectively

even one of the most respected sunni scholars Yusuf Al Qaradawi has asked Mubarak to step down for the good of the coutry. Qaradawi is a massive voice all over the muslim world, so i think this is the nail in the coffin for Hosni. Ive spoken to some egyptians here, and they're telling me that Hosni has sent his family abroad. im not even sure if that is true or not, but its interesting nonetheless.

my first post in this thread i predicted the mubarak government taking control of this, at least until mubarak's death. im eating my words here. I dont think Hosni will last the week.

---------- Post added at 04:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:54 AM ----------

btw, al qaeda hasnt even been mentioned ONCE during the last 5 hours of constant al jazeera updates.

roachboy · 01-29-2011, 11:41 AM

apparently state television is telling people to be afraid, to organize vigilante actions...
there are reports of the ndp provoking looting.

this is obviously not over yet.

---------- Post added at 07:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ----------

still more reports coming in of the police directing looting actions.
speculations are that the idea is to discredit the protest movement by creating the "chaos" that he claims to stand against.
a page from the book of the algerian fln....

ring · 01-29-2011, 11:55 AM

Yeah, been reading about that in different sectors today.

On a different note:

I have high hopes that folk here in the U.S. & around the globe will be emboldened
to shake & stir ourselves out of varying states of Apathy.

roachboy · 01-29-2011, 12:05 PM

it appears that those geniuses at cnn are concerned that a threat to a radically unequal distribution of wealth and power in one place might spread to threaten radically unequal distributions of wealth and power everywhere. such reactionary and shallow drivel. the united states is not served by its corporate infotainment streams. shocking stuff.

i have to go do something else for a while. it's 11 pm in cairo. i think people will have to sleep.....

mixedmedia · 01-29-2011, 12:31 PM

I've only watched news coverage of the protests in Egypt once and I was almost immediately dismayed by the lens of 'Americanism' through which this event is being portrayed. As if 'commentators' in America are somehow better equipped to perceive this situation than are the people on the streets of Cairo right now. It's kind of sickening. So I stick to news articles.

Perhaps it is a weakness of mine, but I can't seem to find a place in this event for my own country's best interest. I wish nothing but success for the protesters in Egypt. They have my support and my admiration.

01-26-2011, 11:17 AM	#2 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	I don't a have much to say at this point, as I'm slowly digesting the information that's coming out of both places. However, I've read somewhere that the Egypt protests were, at least in part, inspired by the events in Tunisia. You brought up American media, but I think the media in general is an interesting aspect in this. What I suspect is that the Internet and social media are a big factor in how these events have unfolded. The transmission of information, the reaching of a consensus among thousands, and the galvanization/mobilization of the public has never been more quick and powerful since the advent of these technologies and the adoption of them as the primary means of communication and social sharing. And then you throw things like WikiLeaks into the mix. I suppose this means that it's become much, much more difficult to be authoritarian. Ask the Chinese. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

01-26-2011, 12:02 PM	#3 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	just a quick note on media coverage: yesterday there was a lot of comment from egypt about the lack of coverage from al jazeera of the protests. this was in marked contrast to the extensive coverage given the tunisian protests/revolution. the speculative explanation is not surprising: people thought that the mubarak government had made a deal with that of qatar... al jazeera is still not giving egypt much space, really---but there's more than there was yesterday. there's little doubt that not only more centralized media forms are playing a basic role---decentralized media is pivotal. this is an interesting piece that i just stumbled across...it's arguing that ben ali was a perfect client for the united states. so the imbrication between american foreign policy and repressive dictatorships is coming to the fore: Ben Ali Tunisia was model US client - Opinion - Al Jazeera English while all the blah blah blah about "freedom" from the empire turns to wood. this could be a very complicated situation for us realpolitik...it should be interesting to watch this play out. you know, for the theater. =================== btw---here's another blog compendium, from the ny times. it includes names of some of the bloggers/twitter accounts, links to a yfrog page with photos of tuesday's demos, and links to some youtube-hosted footage. Egyptian Bloggers Report on New Unrest - NYTimes.com ==================== a mix of interesting stuff, rumor, chaos...#Jan25 on twitter.... Twitter / Search __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-26-2011, 08:00 PM	#4 (permalink)
dlish Currently sour but formerly Dlishs Super Moderator Location: Australia/UAE	here in the UAE it's headline news along with the political woes of Lebanon over the last few days. i dont watch much TV, so i dont know what al jazeera is or isnt broadcasting, but the feeling im getting here is that most arab governments are watching this closely. Most governments here are run as autocracies, and any sort of protest would be a challenge to its right to rule. despite the protests, i dont see anything coming from this protest for the time being. I think the pivotal point is going to come about when Mubarak dies and its time to pass the mantle on. mubarak's son isnt very popular in egypt and doesnt have the popular support of the people or the government. and since he is not from a military background, doesnt have the support of the military. i see a lot of commotion when Hosni breathes his last, and its not going to be pretty i dont think. __________________ An injustice anywhere, is an injustice everywhere I always sign my facebook comments with ()()===========(}. Does that make me gay? - Filthy

01-26-2011, 08:22 PM	#5 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	i read somewhere--twitter i think---that there are something on the order of 1.6 million people involved with "security" in egypt. there are 83 milliion people in egypt. around 90% are in cairo. it's hard to say what a tipping point is in this kind of situation. it certainly appears at the moment that mubarak (or the apparatus that owes their various positions to him) thinks they can fight whatever it is that they are fighting...by which i mean that it may be that the state is locked into a dynamic they do not quite see (maybe) in which the attempts to fight the popular movement spread the popular movement. this is the problem/limit of direct repression. on the other hand, it's entirely possible that you're right and mubarak regime can maintain itself in place until hosni buys the farm. there are calls racing around for a show of popular dissent on friday afternoon that'd be bigger than tuesday. no way at this point to know how that'll play out, but it's out there. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-26-2011, 08:36 PM	#6 (permalink)
Seaver Junkie Location: Fort Worth, TX	I believe the military will again decide the fate of the Egyptian government. Their budget is extremely large for their GDP, and is about the only political force which isn't fractured into a thousand fragments at the moment. The Muslim Brotherhood is organized, but their general message doesn't strike a chord with most Egyptians at the moment... but it's a kind of lesser of two evils that might catch some ground if things aren't guided well. Really, with all the money/training/etc we've given to Egypt for free to ensure they keep the peace with Israel, I don't see anything happening without the military brass deciding and green-lighting. __________________ "Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas

01-27-2011, 09:32 AM	#8 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	this is a webspace from one of the main organizational nodes within the egyptian maybe-revolution (one can always hope) We are all Khaled Said. Working against torture and inhuman treatment of Egyptians in their own country. Standing up against corruption in Egypt. very interesting updates. seaver: while in the abstract you are correct, there is a point past which it isn't possible for the military to hold a situation together, particularly if there are divisions within the military organizationally (by which i mean divisions that are not necessarily factions within the command, though that's a possibility as well). the protests this afternoon---which should be on now---will be interesting. ---------- Post added at 05:32 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:52 PM ---------- here's a collection of slogans from tuesday and wednesday's protests, transcribed and translated: The Angry Arab News Service/????? ????? ?????? ??????: Egyptian slogans and another link to the guardian's live blog: Protests in Egypt - live updates \| World news \| guardian.co.uk the protests appear to be bigger and more widespread. there is a report that el-baradi has arrived in cairo, which makes this a more explosive confrontation with mubarak regime because the main opposition leader is now in the country. this is a state dept page about egypt that gives some basic numbers concerning us aid to egypt. Egypt note the extent of support for the military. think about who's running the show. tomorrow should be interesting. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-27-2011, 09:41 AM	#9 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	It's all very interesting. It's interesting to see how the situations in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen all seem to derive from the same source of social power in the people: they are realizing they have power in coordinated movement against corruption and authoritarianism, and this is reinforced by what they see beyond their own situations....all happening at once it seems. And I'll reiterate: I cannot see how this sort of thing could happen as such without the power of the Internet and social media. (With the exception, perhaps, of Yemen, whose population is quite impoverished compared to Tunisia and Egypt....but you never know.) It would seem that a long history of authoritarianism in a few parts of the Arab world could very well come to an end. If only we could see this happen in the oil-rich nations. NYTimes.com - Thousands Rally Against Government in Yemen __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot Last edited by Baraka_Guru; 01-27-2011 at 09:45 AM..

01-27-2011, 09:46 AM	#10 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	if it happens there, maybe it can happen in the united states. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-27-2011, 08:20 PM	#13 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	oil rich nations have been able to buy off their opposition since oil became a useful commodity. The only nations that have seen political reform in the middle east (Iraq and Iran aside) have been the ones without oil (Lebanon and Bahrain come to mind). __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

01-27-2011, 08:32 PM	#14 (permalink)
mixedmedia has all her shots. Location: Florida	I am a bit ashamed to say that I haven't been following the news the last few weeks. What is happening is just starting to capture my attention (and my imagination) only today. I look forward to learning more about it. thanks for the links. __________________ Most people go through life dreading they'll have a traumatic experience. Freaks were born with their trauma. They've already passed their test in life. They're aristocrats. - Diane Arbus PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile. - Ambrose Bierce

01-27-2011, 09:24 PM	#15 (permalink)
dlish Currently sour but formerly Dlishs Super Moderator Location: Australia/UAE	democracy is not really democracy in lebanon. i'm not so sure how much exposure this had had in western press, but the recent toppling of the government by hezbollah as a political motive for Hairir's support of the UN report on Lebanon is worrysome. With Hariri now replaced with the hezbollah backed Mikati, i can only pray and weep for lebanon. as much as the west wants to see many of these governments go, i think an immediate overhaul of arab nations is definately not a wise decision for neither the east nor the west. the political vacuum this will leave can only leave more room for fundamentalists to get a stronghold in government. __________________ An injustice anywhere, is an injustice everywhere I always sign my facebook comments with ()()===========(}. Does that make me gay? - Filthy

01-27-2011, 09:39 PM	#16 (permalink)
Willravel ... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.	At what point does a political riot become a revolution?

01-28-2011, 05:19 AM	#18 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	gee you'd think that this democracy via the domino theory idea would be welcomed by the united states...but of course no, because such things are just words and what really matters is that the mubarak government continue to play nice with the united states over it's degenerate and retrograde policies toward israel/palestine. so american-sponsored "freedom" is 30 years of martial law, corruption at an unimaginable scale, sclerosis at almost every level. people are rightly sick of it. of course the government tries to pin things on the muslim brotherhood because they play well with the american line of trying to appear to support democratic movements while in fact being a straight-up neo-colonial imperial power and supporting any regime no matter how foul, so long as what is says can be squared with what the americans say in order to sell empire as if it were something else. at this point, the muslim brotherhood is not significantly involved in the protests. more or less the entire leadership was arrested over night in any event. i do not have a sense of el baradi's support more broadly.* i sometimes get the idea that he is a television figure, someone that appeals to news outlets because having a head to follow around makes things easier for tv viewers to follow. this appears to be a very widespread popular revolt that's unfolding largely on generational lines. i don't see it as necessarily being about "the crazies"---i think that's the sort of thinking that the mubarak regime would like to see out there because it justifies what they;re doing right now as we speak. protest becomes revolution when the regime caves in. personally, i hope we see the end of hosni mubarak's 30 year state of emergency very soon. meanwhile, the united states, those heros of democracy, continue to equivocate publicly. but i wonder what the back channels are like. el baradi likely represents (and helps to coalesce) divisions within the egyptian socio-economic elites. and he's symbolically interesting. the intersections of this ore elite-driven dissent and the popular movements of this past week could be interesting, assuming that el baradi doesn't find himself being suicided out a window or some such. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite Last edited by roachboy; 01-28-2011 at 05:51 AM..*

01-28-2011, 12:37 PM	#25 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	the us is already heavily involved with egypt. they've been instrumental in propping up mubarak for most of the 30 years of martial law he's inflicted on the egyptian people. like seaver pointed out above, the main institution through which this involvement has played out is the military. egypt is the second largest recipient of us aid, behind israel. it is clear---the wikileaks cables on this do it if it wasn't--but it was clear--that this aid owes everything to egypt's having signed a treaty with israel and in so doing become a de facto buffer in defense of american policy toward israel in the region. in exchange for that, the americans overlook appalling human rights abuses except when it suits them as under the bush regime to send people being extraordinarily renditioned so that the egyptians can fuck them up. the obama administration had moved more publicly close to mubarak after a period of relative distance maintained by the bush people, presumably because if you're going to exploit the fact of torture you need to appear to deplore it. because that's how we roll. so the problem for the united states is pretty obvious---maintaining position across what could be a revolution. what faux news is "reporting" on this is idiotic--that "groups linked to al-qeada could come to power"----a transparent reference to the muslim brotherhood, the routine evocation of which has rarely if ever failed to turn on the financial "counter-terrorism" spigot from the americans. but the fact is that they've had nothing to do with these protests---and when they did come out in support of them yesterday, the entire leadership was almost immediately arrested. so that's out. i dont know enough about exactly what el baradi's constiuency is to say much about the role he might play, assuming that he doesn't meet with some unfortunate accident in the next day or two. but i do think the americans are hoping to manoever the army into acting independently of mubarak's government by signaling that the funding is up for review as a result of how the next days go. or the army could act in support of the government if the wind blows that way. like dlilsh said, all this is a direct consequence of american imperial policies and logic. it's exactly the opposite of the (empty) language of "Freedom" that people who live on this side of the mirror like to flatter themselves by thinking that the united states stands for. this, the opposite side of the mirror, is far more real. anyway, that's kinda where i think things are. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-28-2011, 02:07 PM	#27 (permalink)
filtherton Junkie Location: In the land of ice and snow.	Quick! Somebody find a way to turn this into a futile argument about nothing in particular. I bet we end up talking about boats.

01-28-2011, 06:09 PM	#28 (permalink)
Seaver Junkie Location: Fort Worth, TX	Mubarak is stepping down. I'm very surprised the Egyptian Military has stayed neutral, they would have been the defacto crown-assigner... and they stayed out of it. I believe the brass will ensure the Muslim Brotherhood stays suppressed and lets it roll. Good for the Egyptians, the vast majority of the country are smart enough to stay secular... and would help be a beacon to the rest of the regions. __________________ "Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas

01-28-2011, 06:23 PM	#29 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Mubarak isn't stepping down; he's replacing the government. He's continuing his presidency. He's appointing another government. It's a mockery of democracy. Expect more Egyptians in the streets on Saturday. They won't be appeased by this. They want Mubarak out. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

01-29-2011, 09:27 AM	#33 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	That's an commendable belief, roachboy. Unfortunately, those who are most likely to revolt in America have in mind some kind of libertarian utopia. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

01-29-2011, 09:37 AM	#34 (permalink)
Derwood Who You Crappin? Location: Everywhere and Nowhere	The situation in Cairo looks like dksuddeth's wet dream __________________ "You can't shoot a country until it becomes a democracy." - Willravel

01-29-2011, 10:41 AM	#35 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	btw--i just flipped on cnn for the first time in many months...after watching al jazeera's coverage off and on yesterday (until i had to wrest my life back for a while)...and the low level of the coverage is shocking. it's shallowness, it's stupidity--but especially the compulsive use of words like "riot" "anarchy" "looting" "fear" and "al qeada" this is the response of american corporate infotainment to popular uprising---WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN TO OUR STUFF? WHERE ARE THE POLICE? BE AFRAID FOR YOUR STUFF. STAY ON YOUR COUCH IN FRONT OF THE TV WHERE IT'S SAFE. FREEDOM IS THE FREEDOM TO WATCH TV ON YOUR COUCH. DO NOTHING. SCARY SCARY CRIMINALS BAD. PEOPLE WHO DEMAND FREEDOM WANT TO STEAL YOUR SHIT. SCARY FREEDOM BAD. STAY INSIDE WHERE THE COMMERCIALS ARE. SCARY BAD RIOT CHAOS BAD. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-29-2011, 10:57 AM	#36 (permalink)
dlish Currently sour but formerly Dlishs Super Moderator Location: Australia/UAE	Mubarak has taken the unprecedanted move of naming a vice president. the first time he's ever done that during his presidency. im currently watching al jazeera, and Tahrir Square it still full of thousands of demonstrators, but outside in the suburbs, looting and shootings have changed the landscape of the protest. some communities have set up 'neighbourhood watch' groups to protect their suburbs from looters and thugs. There's also reports coming in right now of thugs cutting off water to suburbs. it looks like law and order has totally broken down. this is a scary situation. the body count on cnn of 25 dead is way understated. al jazeera has shown images of the dead in the morgues. in one morgue alone in Al Salam city, there are 15 dead (by gunfire) as reported by one al Jazeera reporter. Another reporter has reported 15 and 23 dead respectively even one of the most respected sunni scholars Yusuf Al Qaradawi has asked Mubarak to step down for the good of the coutry. Qaradawi is a massive voice all over the muslim world, so i think this is the nail in the coffin for Hosni. Ive spoken to some egyptians here, and they're telling me that Hosni has sent his family abroad. im not even sure if that is true or not, but its interesting nonetheless. my first post in this thread i predicted the mubarak government taking control of this, at least until mubarak's death. im eating my words here. I dont think Hosni will last the week. ---------- Post added at 04:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:54 AM ---------- btw, al qaeda hasnt even been mentioned ONCE during the last 5 hours of constant al jazeera updates. __________________ An injustice anywhere, is an injustice everywhere I always sign my facebook comments with ()()===========(}. Does that make me gay? - Filthy

01-29-2011, 11:41 AM	#37 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	apparently state television is telling people to be afraid, to organize vigilante actions... there are reports of the ndp provoking looting. this is obviously not over yet. ---------- Post added at 07:41 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ---------- still more reports coming in of the police directing looting actions. speculations are that the idea is to discredit the protest movement by creating the "chaos" that he claims to stand against. a page from the book of the algerian fln.... __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-29-2011, 11:55 AM	#38 (permalink)
ring ░ Location: ❤	Yeah, been reading about that in different sectors today. On a different note: I have high hopes that folk here in the U.S. & around the globe will be emboldened to shake & stir ourselves out of varying states of Apathy.

01-29-2011, 12:05 PM	#39 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	it appears that those geniuses at cnn are concerned that a threat to a radically unequal distribution of wealth and power in one place might spread to threaten radically unequal distributions of wealth and power everywhere. such reactionary and shallow drivel. the united states is not served by its corporate infotainment streams. shocking stuff. i have to go do something else for a while. it's 11 pm in cairo. i think people will have to sleep..... __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

01-29-2011, 12:31 PM	#40 (permalink)
mixedmedia has all her shots. Location: Florida	I've only watched news coverage of the protests in Egypt once and I was almost immediately dismayed by the lens of 'Americanism' through which this event is being portrayed. As if 'commentators' in America are somehow better equipped to perceive this situation than are the people on the streets of Cairo right now. It's kind of sickening. So I stick to news articles. Perhaps it is a weakness of mine, but I can't seem to find a place in this event for my own country's best interest. I wish nothing but success for the protesters in Egypt. They have my support and my admiration. __________________ Most people go through life dreading they'll have a traumatic experience. Freaks were born with their trauma. They've already passed their test in life. They're aristocrats. - Diane Arbus PESSIMISM, n. A philosophy forced upon the convictions of the observer by the disheartening prevalence of the optimist with his scarecrow hope and his unsightly smile. - Ambrose Bierce