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Old 01-28-2011, 09:33 AM   #20 (permalink)
Willravel
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I'm going to post something I read this morning on Reddit that was incredibly helpful in explaining in basic terms the background and context for the current situation:
Quote:
The Catalyst: Tunisia[,] a country in Northern Africa[,] was ruled by a repressive and dictatorial regime led by President Ben Ali. At the end of 2010, a series of riots broke out throughout Tunisia, collectively termed the "Jasmine Revolution." The root causes are considered to be mass unemployment, widespread corruption, appalling living conditions and the governments propensity to squash free speech. This resulted in President Ben Ali dissolving the government, a victory for the revolutionaries.

Regional results: In the region, the success of the Tunisian revolution led to widespread instability. It had previously been considered axiomatic that regional dictatorships were too stable to fall. The Tunisian revolution proved otherwise and soon protests began all over the region, most strongly in Algeria, Yemen and Egypt.

Egypt: The Egyptian youth were mobilized by the example set by the Tunisian revolution. Many suggested that the upcoming 25th of January 'National Police Day' be instead used as a massive [nationwide] protest against corruption. Other causes for the unrest have been the widespread brutality of the Egyptian police and military (Egypt is basically a dictatorship because the country is under 'Emergency law' and has been since 1967), the crippling poverty in the country and President Mubarak himself.

The Egyptian Response: The Egyptian police and military have been very heavy handed in responding to the protests. A huge number of protestors have been beaten by police and plain clothes secret police officers. Three have been confirmed killed at the time of this writing. In an effort to stop the protestors utilizing Facebook and Twitter to organize and get their message out, Egypt shut down access to those two sites and now, basically unplugged the country from the internet entirely.

Friday: This Friday will see a pivotal moment in the Egyptian revolution as a mass protest has been called after traditional Friday prayers. The Egyptians have called for a "Million Man March" but the chaos in the country and the unpredictability of what's going on makes it difficult to even guess at what will actually transpire.

Predictions: Analysts are split as to what will happen in Egypt. There seems to be a concensus that unlike Tunisia, whose military was underpaid, had terrible morale and had little stake in the Police State, the Egyptian army is far more likely to support the Mubarak regime. If the support of the armed forces wavers (as the police support already has, on occasion) then a very real revolution is on the cards.

The U.S in the Region: If you're American and wondering, the U.S has a lot of skin in the game. Mubarak has received a huge amount of aid from the United States. Egypt is one of the only Middle Eastern countries to have something approaching a lasting peace treaty with Israel, and Mubarak is generally considered to be a 'friend of the West' by the standards of his fellow leaders in the region. Many of the protesters see the U.S as propping up Mubarak's regime. If the revolution succeeds, any popular democracy in Egypt is almost certainly going produce leaders with anti-American platforms. Further, one of the largest opposition groups in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is considered a terrorist organization and a supporter of terrorism by the Russian Federation and is typically anti-west in its rhetoric.
Source

what do you make of what's happening?
It's incredible. People who have been living under the iron fist of tyranny are rising up en masse to fight for their liberty. It's inspiring. It's also a bit terrifying. A lot of people have been hurt so far, and even a few deaths. This is only going to increase in the coming days. My thoughts are with the revolutionaries. It gives me hope that the citizenry of a country under the rule of such a government can still stand up for what they believe in. I sincerely hope they succeed.

what kind of coverage are you seeing in the american press of it?
It's been really bizarre. They have been covering it, which is a bit more than I expected, but the information being released seems highly detached and it's being supplied with little to no context. While President Obama did mention some vague support in his State of the Union, I'm not seeing the broad support I'd like for the revolutionaries.

why do you think that coverage is as it is?
Forgive the generalization, but the American media is stupid. If they've decided to care, they're probably scrambling to get more information despite the fact it's been widely available the whole time.

how do you see things playing out in egypt?
I honestly don't know. As was said in the above quote, Egypt is not Tunisia in that it has a powerful military and police force who are likely to want to protect the status quo. Still, the people of Egypt appear very much hungry for change and the fact that the Egyptian police and government have been so heavy-handed in their response is likely to spur on more revolution. I'd give it 50/50 at this point, until more information starts coming out.
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