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warrior bodhisattva
Super Moderator
Location: East-central Canada
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Some commentary on Mubarak's decision to retain power:
Quote:
Mubarak’s strongman-approach to revolts hardly surprising
SONIA VERMA
The Associated Press
Published Friday, Jan. 28, 2011 5:32PM EST
Last updated Friday, Jan. 28, 2011 10:19PM EST
To protesters, Hosni Mubarak’s decision to deploy the army and retain his power is infuriating, but those who know him best are not surprised.
His strategy, they say, is consistent with a predictable pattern honed over thirty years of ironclad rule.
“He is not the kind of person who is going to walk away from this,” said Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt who knows Mr. Mubarak well.
“He is a tough fighter and he believes that he has done the best for Egypt that could be done,” he said.
Mr. Mubarak used a speech last night to reinforce his image as a strongman in a way that was entirely consistent with his leadership style, analysts said.
The 82-year-old leader, who is rarely seen in public, has always taken a tough approach to turmoil and the stunning demonstrations that have unfolded in Egypt over the last few days appear to have done nothing to change that.
Part of Mr. Mubarak’s approach has to do with his past. President since 1981, he has always thought of himself as a military man, having served as commander of the air force during the 1967 defeat by Israel.
The closest advisers to him as leader of Egypt have tended to hail from the upper echelons of the military, such as Omar Suleiman, his intelligence chief, and Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, his defence minister and chief of staff. Lieutenant General Sami Enan, the chief of staff of Egypt’s armed forces, flew back to Cairo on Friday from Washington where he was leading a delegation in talks.
In the past, the president has dealt with unrest by using his security forces to restore order. The military itself tends to be silent on political matters which are left to the Mubarak clan.
Indeed, Mr. Mubarak has always been careful not to cede too much control to anyone, observers say, managing to keep his hold on power, in part, by refusing to groom a successor.
He does not, for example, have a vice-president or any heir apparent besides his son, Gamal, a businessman who is rising through the ranks of his party.
Mr. Mubarak has meanwhile crushed opposition by shaping political institutions to bolster his own party and stifle others.
Elections are tightly controlled by the government and the ruling party, and in the absence of any viable opposition, the party’s candidate is sure to win. The strategy has bolstered Mr. Mubarak’s power but resulted in him being disconnected from Egyptians.
“He has tremendous disdain for people who are calling for change,” said Stephen Cook, a senior fellow with the Council of Foreign Relations who just returned to New York from Cairo and is writing a book about Egypt.
“He has built this country that is on the verge of an economic breakthrough. Someone who was not filled with so much hubris would have responded to this crisis differently. He clearly is out of touch,” said Mr. Cook, who spent several days in the streets speaking with protesters about their demands.
The tenor of current protests, analysts say, caught Mr. Mubarak off guard.
Many believe he remains confident the protests will simply die down, like smaller scale demonstrations of the past.
“He believes that he still maintains the support of the overwhelming majority of Egyptians,” Mr. Kurtzer said.
“He thinks that with enough government resolve and determination, including a willingness to use force to put down demonstrations, the demonstrations will stop and then and only then will he consider whether there’s some changes that have to be made,” he added.
While President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali’s ouster in Tunisia emboldened Egyptian protesters, it also served as a warning to Mr. Mubarak who is wary of repeating the mistakes that led to that regime’s downfall.
Mr. Ben Ali used a television appearance to offer a concession, saying to the population: “I understand you.” Mr. Mubarak has decided instead to retrench, vowing to reform his government as only he sees fit and to crack down on protesters by sending the army into the streets.
Some observers predict he might lift Egypt’s much hated emergency-rule, which has lasted nearly as long as his regime. He could also suppress opposition by tinkering with food prices or the minimum wage.
“Mr. Mubarak’s regime is considerably stronger and more important than the Tunisian regime and for that reason alone, the notion that it will quickly collapse is hard to credit,” said Roger Hardy, a Middle East expert and public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School.
“But regardless of what happens now, the Mubarak family has essentially lost credibility. The ruling family is in a weak position. The security forces are strong. This is a new world for Mr. Mubarak,” he said.
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Mubarak's strongman-approach to revolts hardly surprising - The Globe and Mail
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—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön
Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot
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