aceventura3

I am curious about what TFP'ers think about the changes occuring in Venezuela and if you think Chavez is on the right or wrong track in terms of what is best for his countrymen.

I believe he is going to drive the country into ruin and the country is going to loose skilled human capital. There are already indicators that this is occuring.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/16539066.htm

My personal belief is that communist run countries will all eventually fail due to inefficient centralized control. But when you have a person like Chavez taking total control of a country the problems and the speed of the failure gets magnified.

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

The_Jazz

Ace, Chavez may be many things, but he's not a communist. If Lenin or Mao were alive today, they'd laugh at the idea. Acuse him of being a socialist, but you'll never make the argument that he's a communist.

Asylum-seekers that claim communism is immanent are basically appealing to the Bush administration's dislike for Chavez. I also don't think that he has as much personal power as you think.

To finally answer the question posed, I think that as long as he doesn't do anything stupid like start a personality cult or tax the upper middle class, there won't be any great exodus of Venezulans. Having 11,000 emigrate to the US isn't really that big of a deal for a country of 24,000,000 (off the top of my head).

__________________
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin
"There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

aceventura3

I am not sure where he is going but here is what he said:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6246219.stm

I should not be surprised by how quickly every problem or potential problem in the world has something to do with Bush. So when Hilary Rodham Clinton is president asylum-seekers won't claim communism as a reason? Is this what you imply?

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

Elphaba

Chavez is using the nationalized oil revenues to improve the lives of the poor, and for that he is considered a hero by the majority of the populace. If he couples this with education and the creation of jobs, he may create a viable middle class which I believe is essential to a functioning democracy. That strategy would strengthen the country, rather than "ruin" it.

The oligarchy that Venesuela once was only enriched the very few and left everyone else in poverty.

aceventura3

Is it possible to enact reforms that are supported by all classes of people, or do you think class warfare (rich vs. poor) is the only option?

What do you think will happen when the current group of the most skilled and educated leave the country?

How do you see the revolution and current conditions in Cuba compared to what may happen in Venesuela since Chavez often uses Cuba as a role-model?

Are there lessons the USA can learn from Chavez's approach to wealth re-distribution?

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

filtherton

No because those who stand to lose from the reforms will generally never be satisfied. "Class warfare" isn't always a bad thing. I would argue that class warfare is actually the status quo in any well oiled capitalist economy.

How can you be so sure that they will? Most skilled/educated doesn't always mean most willing to leave the country to maximize profits. It will depend on how comfortable chavez can make life for the average venezualan.

Don't botch your covert attempts at regime change in south america?

The_Jazz

The comparison of asylum speakers (2000 vs 2006) is the Clinton administration vs. the Bush administration. I'm not blaiming Bush at all, although I do think it's interesting that you seem hyper-sensitive about that. What I'm saying is that it's more likely that the asylum-seekers are trying to game the system because of the Bush administration's dislike for Chavez. I thnk that a similar analogy would be pre-revolutionary Cuban asylum seekers vs. post-revolutionary asylum-seekers.

HRC or ANY following admininstration regardless of party has any bearing on the increase in the (small) increase in asylum-seekers we've seen.

__________________
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - B. Franklin
"There ought to be limits to freedom." - George W. Bush
"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

ASU2003

I think Chavez was a good leader last year, this year he has done a few things that I don't agree with.

I have no problem with him nationalizing the oil that is in Venezuela. It denied the oil companies (US/UK based) that would have made a few extra billion of profit and leave the Venezuelans in poverty. That is why people high up want the Americans to not like the Venezuelans.

And I have no problem with a concept that profits from national resources should be evenly dispersed among the population. And if it limits your country from growing at the same speed as the US, so what, if the lifestyle of the Venezuelan people is better as a socialist country, I don't see why we should worry about how they handle their economy.

aceventura3

The absolute numbers are small as are the numbers when compared to the total population, however, the percentage increase is large and perhaps correlated to Chavez's activities rather than the Clinton or Bush administrations. Also, we have to consider a portion will try to come here and others may go to other countries. We may be looking at the begining of a long-term trend, where the absolute numbers get big real fast.

When I look at this issue in terms of human capital - if for example, the "top 2%" of a nation's population is responsible for the majority of the country's human capital (doctors, scientists, inventors, engineers, business leaders, teachers, etc) and those people have the ability and opportunity to leave if the feel they feel unfairly treated, perhaps if they do leave the country would be crippled for several generations. I understand the appeal of being a populist, and taking from the privilaged, but is there a down-side to this strategy? I think there is, do you?

PS - Human Capital is different than the value of human life. The value of an uneducated unskilled human's life is no less valuable than that of the most educated and the most skilled. But when you measure it in terms of human capital highly skilled and highly educated people contribute more to a nation than those who are not. You guys can spare me of the "evil capitalist" doesn't care about people lines of b.s.

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

Elphaba

This is a non sequitur in that you presume there is only one of two positions to the formation of an economy.

When or if? Are you making the presumption that the skilled and educated are leaving the country based upon the article in your OP? I would like to see some support for that argument, if that is your position.

Cuba as a role model to Chavez? Surely you can't be serious. Venesuela is a social/democracy with a great revenue source from it's oil reserves. Cuba is a communist country that largely survived through the economic funding of the former Soviet Union. I have to agree with Jazz that you don't recognize the difference between communism and socialism.

Yes. People will eventually revolt against an Oligarchy, as we did in November.

aceventura3

There is in-fact class warfare occuring in Venezuela. To suggest the mention of it is absurd when you wrote...

strikes me as odd.



I think throughout history we have recorded events of mass migrations based on political upheaval. In fact the USA has benefitted from such events. Privilaged classes have been killed and have often left their countries of birth during "revolution" or major political/cultural cahnge. So, no, my views and my questions are based on my knowlegde of history (I am not an expert) and current events not one single article. What are your views based on?



Perhaps I don't understand what I read. But Chavez seems to have a great deal of respect for Castro and Cuba based on what I have been reading about Chavez over the last 6 months or so. If no one backs me up on this I will do some searches and get you some links.



We don't share a common definition of the term revolt in the context of our November elections.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...a-Cuba-Oil.php

http://www.smh.com.au/news/travel/cu...594470095.html

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=7434

These were a few links from a GOOGLE search inputting Cuba and Venezuela.

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

pan6467

Ace do you buy Citgo gasoline?

__________________
I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

aceventura3

Yes. To me gas is a commodity, brands or where the gas came from has no significance to me.

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

roachboy

i dont see what information this thread is based on: a factoid at the outset about asylum-seekers--that's it. chavez has been consistently opposed by various elite factions in venezuela--perhaps it is they who are leaving. qnd it does not follow--from any logic that i know of--that members of an economic elite are necessarily the "best and brightest" at anything. but to go further here, youd have to know something more specific about the nature of the venezuelan conservative opposition and its social origins. talking in vague terms about the movement of representatives of vague categories is a waste of time.

you should gather more information, ace.
check out the film "the revolution will not be televised" for starters.
it's eye-opening, and does not lead you to any particular sentiment about chavez: but it DOES give you a pretty good glimpse into this conservative elite, who they are, what they control and what they have been doing (and apparently are willing to do)--it also gives you information about the type of political organization that chavez comes from. all of this would matter if you want an actual discussion.

as it stands, i dont see the basis for a conversation about chavez here.
an alternative would be to introduce more information about venezuela into the thread, expand the data field and go from there.
i dont really have time to do it, but if someone else does, then by all means go for it
(not meaning to hijack your thread, ace, but it'd make it easier to have the conversation you seem to want to have that way...)

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

aceventura3

It is not complicated, I have my view, I look to learn the view of others. Here is the first line in the OP. The only reason I posted a link to anything is because so many of you are so anal about links.

I think we are at a very interesting moment in history. If you don't see the value in what is occuring in Venezuela and want to discuss it, don't.

I have lots of information. My position on issues evolve. I am interested in what others have to offer. Based on what is presented I will either change my view or provide more information to support it.
See how it works. I will take a look at the documentary, I was not aware of it.

Yet you discuss it.


In my opinion those who can not state their opinion in a few sentences, don't have clear opinions. I will never be overly wordy or post excessive volumes of quotes and links.

Given, you are free to avoid reading what I write wouldn't you be better served doing that rather than trying to get me to change my style?

Or, are you just blowing smoke and are incapable of having a discussion on the issue. I will draw my own conclusions on that, while you do things more worth your time.

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

roachboy

well ace, this puts me in a nice little high school debate team conumdrum, doesn't it?
if i post again, i am taking your bait: if i dont, you get to say why it is that the thread is adequately framed and that's that.


this time, i'll bite:

essentially the op does not require (or seemingly presuppose) any particular information about venezuela.
you cite a factoid concerning emigration levels and follow it with a general statement about central planning.
this way, even if one were not interested in actual information concerning what is happening on the ground in consensus reality (the empirical world), one could still draw conclusions from the skeletal op and fit them into the superficial nature of the thread.

essentially, what you are asking about is how the readers of the op react to the notion of central planning, about which you provide no information either in general or in particular concerning how such activities are undertaken under chavez and of their effects.

you juxtapose the factoids about emgration levels as if they constituted some kind of evidence that buttresses your apparent contention about central planning.

so as it stands, ace, there is no there there in this thread.
claim access to all the evidence you want--i dont doubt that you have evidence of some kind for something of what you post--but let's not pretend that this thread as it stands has anything like adequate information that would enable a reader who did not already know something about venezuela/chavez to arrive at anything like an informed judgment.

you might as well have simply posted this question:

central planning: good thing/bad thing? explain.

because that's all you're really asking here.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

pan6467

As long as you feel that way, you have no right to complain about him.... because you support him. Just makes you a hypocrite.

Me? I get my gas at one place (unless I truly have to get it elsewhere because I can't find one).... Marathon/Speedway. But I haven't bought Citgo gas in 2 years, even if it was cheaper (at most it was pennies).

I'm sure Chavez didn't care about me, but if enough say they won't buy.... then he'll take notice.

__________________
I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

aceventura3

I am not subject to his rule, my concern has more to do with what future impact he may have on the rest of the world. I think there is evidence to support the fact that the road he is on will be a net negative to his people, and the region. Those that think capitalism is a failed system may think otherwise. I am not complaining about him yet, other than his speech at the UN where in my opinion he disrespected our President.


I am open to becoming a better poster. Please point me to an example of an OP that you think is good.

P.S. Didn't you create the cunumdrum you described?

__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

pai mei

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...05144&q=chavez
Here is a movie "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised", you can see how US foreign policy works. It's the story of the 2002 coup against Chavez, seen from inside the presidential palace

pan6467

But if you worry about his impact on the world and you believe that he is on a negative road and will adversely affect his people and region... you can do something about it by boycotting his #1 export.

But as with many, you choose to complain and how evil or how this man may do damage as you line his pockets.

You cannot have it both ways.... it's like saying the Chinese want to destroy us, yet you buy their goods left and right, thereby putting money into the machine and supporting the very peoples and country, you believe will destroy you. You don't have to do this, find comparable products made by companies that are in countries you agree with.

To me as extreme as it sounds, by doing the above: buying product from, and having severe deficits with countries that are not truly friendly and may want to hurt us... is supporting the enemy as much as giving them military secrets and aid.

__________________
I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"