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Old 09-04-2007, 11:52 AM   #1 (permalink)
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The North Pole is melting

http://www.socc.ca/seaice/seaice_current_e.cfm


http://intothegreyzone.blogspot.com/
Quote:
The sea ice minimum in the 1970s was 5.5 million square kilometers. Then in the 1980s it was 5.0 million square kilometers. Then in the 1990s it reached 4.5 million square kilometers. Then by 2005 we touched 4.01 million square kilometers as the prior record.

Then comes 2007. Oh my, does 2007 come roaring by! On August 9, 2007 we set a new record low of 3.98 million square kilometers! But just 19 days later we set a new minimum of 2.99 million square kilometers.
Did you get that yet? We lost one million square kilometers of sea ice in 19 days.
http://unv.net/2007/TECH/science/08/...eut/index.html
The more ice free sea there is , the more heat is absorbed - which leads to more ice melting and more ice free sea, and so on. It's a "positive feedback loop", the melting is not linear.
I don't know if global warming is all our fault but I think this is significant news.
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:18 PM   #2 (permalink)
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All I want to know is whether or not the property value is going to rise, on my house in Omaha, due to its being on beachfront property.
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:23 PM   #3 (permalink)
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We need to reclaim the CO2 from the air, and fast. Cutting emissions isn't enough, really. We need to actually take the CO2 out of the air, and convert it to electricity.
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:24 PM   #4 (permalink)
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From that site...

This major decline in sea ice extent is consistent with the general consensus in the sea ice community that the loss of sea ice is accelerating and anthropogenic climate warming is one of the main causes

This major decline in sea ice extent is consistent with the general consensus in the sea ice community that the loss of sea ice is accelerating

Maybe, I've also seen data showing just the opposite, which ironically blamed global warming too.

but..............

anthropogenic climate warming is one of the main causes

Bullocks...

I won't get into this too much this time but there is strong evidence of a 1500 year warming/cooling cycle. There is NO evidence of human global warming, period, nothing, not a scientific shred, but there is plenty of evidence of this cycle. Correlation does NOT equal causation, period.
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:26 PM   #5 (permalink)
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There are many sites talking about this ice melting. I should have found another, I don't know and cannot say that global warming it's all our fault
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:33 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
I won't get into this too much this time but there is strong evidence of a 1500 year warming/cooling cycle. There is NO evidence of human global warming, period, nothing, not a scientific shred, but there is plenty of evidence of this cycle. Correlation does NOT equal causation, period.
There is a ton of evidence, but it's circumstantial. Here's the thing: those big brained people out there who are experts on such things, who have access to all the data and can interpret it correctly, who have the necessary experience and training, are all pretty much in consensus that the human race has had an effect on the climate. It's hard to ignore that.
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Old 09-04-2007, 12:37 PM   #7 (permalink)
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...arming.html#Q3

Quote:
Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 1996 at a rate of -2.8 +/- 0.3%/decade. Although this seems to correspond to a general increase in temperature over the same period, there are lots of quasi-cyclic atmospheric dynamics (for example the Arctic Oscillation) which may also influence the extent and thickness of sea-ice in the Arctic. Sea-ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase since 1979. Though extending the Antarctic sea-ice record back in time is more difficult due to the lack of direct observations in this part of the world.
Quote:
The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the southeastern U.S.) have, in fact, cooled over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N. Warming, assisted by the record El Niño of 1997-1998, has continued right up to the present, with 2001 being the second warmest year on record after 1998.
Quote:
If one calculates trends beginning with the commencement of radiosonde data in the 1950s, there is a slight greater warming in the record due to increases in the 1970s. There are statistical and physical reasons (e.g., short record lengths, the transient differential effects of volcanic activity and El Niño, and boundary layer effects) for expecting differences between recent trends in surface and lower tropospheric temperatures, but the exact causes for the differences are still under investigation (see National Research Council report "Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change").
The last few years have shown an increase in Antarctic Sea Ice, and the Southern Hemisphere in general has shown a reducing in temperature.

In short the scientists don't know, nor can they explain much of what they find. Very few (if any) hold out that there is change to the global environment, the debate lays in the cause and effect it will hold on society.

I personally do not believe it will hold much of an impact. We have risen .2 Degree Celsius since the mid 19th Century according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and with that have seen the biggest economic, social, and technological boom ever in history. I'm not saying lets turn the heat up and keep it going, but it obviously is not as bad as Gore makes it out to be.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:29 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Who cares if it's anthropogenic? If the poles melt and change the patterns of air and water currents, that's a major problem.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:31 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
I won't get into this too much this time but there is strong evidence of a 1500 year warming/cooling cycle. There is NO evidence of human global warming, period, nothing, not a scientific shred, but there is plenty of evidence of this cycle. Correlation does NOT equal causation, period.
I agree.
To a point.

I mean, I'm sure that you are correct. The fossil record shows that climate change is cyclic. We're probably due. Not too much that we can really do about that. Adapt, I guess.

However...to claim that all of the pollutants, that mankind has belched into the atmosphere just over the past hundred years, have not had a significant effect is a bit naive. Don't you think? Seriously? I mean it has to have had some impact on all of this. Even if it's just a simple escalation.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:34 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I'm gonna run outta ice for cocktails.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:47 PM   #11 (permalink)
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OMG! What about Santa and the elves and the reindeer???
The pole will remain after the ice is gone, until the theoretical flip-flop thing.
(Yeah, sorry)
Still and all, Omaha becoming a beachfront anytime within our timeframe seems highly unlikely.
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:55 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
I won't get into this too much this time but there is strong evidence of a 1500 year warming/cooling cycle. There is NO evidence of human global warming, period, nothing, not a scientific shred, but there is plenty of evidence of this cycle. Correlation does NOT equal causation, period.
I'm curious about this... Granting for the sake of etc. that the current warming trend isn't caused by human behavior (which I'm not convinced about, but granting it even so), do you believe the things people are saying about the end-game of the warming trend? The OP is fairly dramatic as a result--and people more credible than Al Gore have been talking about massive flooding and other catastrophic weather events related to global warming. Do you believe that's coming?

Second question, only sort of related. Do you believe that if we altered our behavior, we could ameliorate the effects of this (granted-for-the-sake-of) non-human-caused phenomenon? Is even the most massive world-wide effort enough to impact this (granted-for-the-sake-of) natural cycle? Or are we on this roller-coaster without any brakes for as far as it takes us?
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Old 09-04-2007, 01:57 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill O'Rights
I agree.
To a point.

I mean, I'm sure that you are correct. The fossil record shows that climate change is cyclic. We're probably due. Not too much that we can really do about that. Adapt, I guess.
There is a 100,000 year cycle (Ice ages anyone) and they also surprising found a much milder 1,500 year cycle. It is this cycle that we are in (well we are always in it but its the warming cycle of it) and if true it WILL get a bit hotter and then, again as seen in the middle ages, it WILL get colder again. This is documented by both polar ice cores and corroborated by history. Europe was warmer in the times of the Romans, got cold in the middle ages (which caused much of the problems) and is getting warmer again.

Quote:
However...to claim that all of the pollutants, that mankind has belched into the atmosphere just over the past hundred years, have not had a significant effect is a bit naive. Don't you think? Seriously? I mean it has to have had some impact on all of this. Even if it's just a simple escalation.
So you tell me is the very minimal warming effect human produced CO2 causing offset by the particulate pollutants which would reflect sunlight? No one knows but the one thing thats apparent is that its very MINOR. Hell we might even be slowing down the warming with our dust clouds acting much like increased cloud cover. I used to fly small aircraft and being around Chicago you could always find it first by the big brown cloud before you saw it over the horizon.

We don't KNOW the effects but I do not think they are anywhere near worthy of acting all hysterical about it. As you know from my past postings it annoys me to no end to have people with absolutely no scientific backgrounds or even interests acting like we have to do SOMETHING now in some feel good gesture. Not that you fit this group of course, but you don't have to ask around to long to find someone like that.
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Old 09-04-2007, 04:08 PM   #14 (permalink)
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I'm no scientist by any stretch of the imagination, but to reverse the line of thinking, why, as NOT being one, should I be irresponsible about my place in all this? Isn't it better to err on the side of helping, even if the data isn't complete?

/me goes outside and burns leaves for a week and cuts down a bunch of trees, then hauls them off in her massive 8mpg SUV...
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Old 09-04-2007, 04:21 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ngdawg
I'm no scientist by any stretch of the imagination, but to reverse the line of thinking, why, as NOT being one, should I be irresponsible about my place in all this? Isn't it better to err on the side of helping, even if the data isn't complete?

/me goes outside and burns leaves for a week and cuts down a bunch of trees, then hauls them off in her massive 8mpg SUV...
I'm all for cutting down on pollution, but I'm not for scaring the public over a chimera.

Environmentalists are trying to take the 'easy' way to get public environmental concerns going with the 'OH MY GOD WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!' type of alarmism. The problem is that in the long run, that doesn't work, and doesn't change the social conscious. When it turns out we are not all going to die people will go back to not caring and might even go overboard out of resentment for being duped in the first place.

Crying wolf isn't what we need, we need people actually caring about the environment for its own sake. Only then will you see real changes in lifestyle.
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Old 09-04-2007, 04:32 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I am, and always have, considered myself an environmentalist. The best thing Clinton ever did, in my opinion, is the massive Federal Park land grants. I believe we need to clean the air, water, and need to have massive investments in Wind/Air/Tidal energy generation.

I do, however, believe that the environmental "cause" has been hijacked by global socialists and the anti-globalization crowd. By running around saying the sky is falling, and taking the focus away from key pollutants (sulfates and nitrates) and onto CO2 is ubsurd. There is very little evidence out there already, and the evidence there is contradicts itself at every turn that CO2 causes global warming.

If we want to save the environment, clean the air/water/land I'm all for it. However I do not want my cause to be hijacked because people don't want industry in China to go up because they do not want a stronger global economy.
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Old 09-04-2007, 07:07 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill O'Rights
All I want to know is whether or not the property value is going to rise, on my house in Omaha, due to its being on beachfront property.
Seems a lot of ice has been melting and there hasn't been a devastating rise in ocean levels yet from what i can tell. This seems to be mostly ocean ice melting and the problem may be with land ice.. however from what i remember, when water freezes it expands. So when this water in the ocean thaws wouldn't it create more space in the ocean that the melting land ice can then fill? Also when the ice on the land melts and runs off the land the weight on that land is then relieved some and the land can then rise a little.
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Old 09-04-2007, 10:22 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ObieX
Seems a lot of ice has been melting and there hasn't been a devastating rise in ocean levels yet from what i can tell. This seems to be mostly ocean ice melting and the problem may be with land ice.. however from what i remember, when water freezes it expands. So when this water in the ocean thaws wouldn't it create more space in the ocean that the melting land ice can then fill? Also when the ice on the land melts and runs off the land the weight on that land is then relieved some and the land can then rise a little.
So does that mean all the global warming alarmist that were trying to convince us that every coastal city would be underwater are wrong?

You know those cute pictures with NYC underwater?
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:28 AM   #19 (permalink)
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How the hell do you turn C02 to electricity... (!).

I think this is rather a simplification. It takes a lot of water, clearly, to raise sea level.

The important issue is the trend (or not, given there are always fluctuations) as well as the reflectivity change.

Last edited by Nimetic; 09-05-2007 at 03:30 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 09-05-2007, 05:08 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
So does that mean all the global warming alarmist that were trying to convince us that every coastal city would be underwater are wrong?

You know those cute pictures with NYC underwater?
Most people well understand the Chicken Little effect you seem to focus on, but many also manage to ignore the hype in favor of the actual Data. It might help the discussion to keep in mind both sides of the information when formulating opinion. Case in point:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
There is a 100,000 year cycle (Ice ages anyone) and they also surprising found a much milder 1,500 year cycle. It is this cycle that we are in (well we are always in it but its the warming cycle of it) and if true it WILL get a bit hotter and then, again as seen in the middle ages, it WILL get colder again. This is documented by both polar ice cores and corroborated by history. Europe was warmer in the times of the Romans, got cold in the middle ages (which caused much of the problems) and is getting warmer again.
This seems to be a relatively sound statement of scientific consensus, but in the very next breath you choose to Ignore much of the opinion held by the very same community of scientists, in an attempt to support your beliefs:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
So you tell me is the very minimal warming effect human produced CO2 causing offset by the particulate pollutants which would reflect sunlight? No one knows but the one thing thats apparent is that its very MINOR. Hell we might even be slowing down the warming with our dust clouds acting much like increased cloud cover. I used to fly small aircraft and being around Chicago you could always find it first by the big brown cloud before you saw it over the horizon.

We don't KNOW the effects but I do not think they are anywhere near worthy of acting all hysterical about it. As you know from my past postings it annoys me to no end to have people with absolutely no scientific backgrounds or even interests acting like we have to do SOMETHING now in some feel good gesture. Not that you fit this group of course, but you don't have to ask around to long to find someone like that.
There are available, vast reams of data concerning the ways in which CO2 plays into Global climate, and though I agree no one theory or hypothesis can explain the full effect, any truly logical interpretation of the information would show cumulative effect in play. Its all good and fine to get pissed off at the Hype Ustwo, I am as well (though for different reasons), but to use that as a reasoning for hiding ones head in the sand is almost as ignorant.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:13 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Has anyone seen "An Inconvenient Truth." Gore presented a very convincing argument for the causation of CO2 and Global warming. I don't know about you all, but I'd rather not wait for it to get 122 degrees outside (which has happened in India already) before finally acting.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:30 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KirStang
Has anyone seen "An Inconvenient Truth." Gore presented a very convincing argument for the causation of CO2 and Global warming. I don't know about you all, but I'd rather not wait for it to get 122 degrees outside (which has happened in India already) before finally acting.
Al Gore refuses to debate anyone on the other side, care to ask him why?

An inconvenient truth is propaganda, nothing more, and like all propaganda its very convincing if you don't know what you are looking at.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:34 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:37 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
Al Gore refuses to debate anyone on the other side, care to ask him why?
He's not a scientist, nor has he ever claimed to be. Demonize him all you want, but he is speaking on behalf of scientists. Those are the people to debate with. I'd no sooner expect Al Gore to debate on climate than I would expect that Mac guy from the Mac commercials to explain the finer points of Mac OS X. He's a spokesman. Surly you must realize this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
An inconvenient truth is propaganda, nothing more, and like all propaganda its very convincing if you don't know what you are looking at.
An Inconvenient Truth really isn't propaganda. It's too bad you can't see that.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:45 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tecoyah
There are available, vast reams of data concerning the ways in which CO2 plays into Global climate, and though I agree no one theory or hypothesis can explain the full effect, any truly logical interpretation of the information would show cumulative effect in play. Its all good and fine to get pissed off at the Hype Ustwo, I am as well (though for different reasons), but to use that as a reasoning for hiding ones head in the sand is almost as ignorant.
Of course CO2 plays a part in the climate. My first encounter with the global warming climate theory with CO2 playing a part was in the early 80's, it focused around why Venus was hotter than it should be based on its orbit. I've NEVER doubted CO2 plays a role, what I do deny is that human produced CO2 from the burning of fossil (and wood) fuels has had any measurable affect on the climate. Undoubtedly it plays a part, but its like blaming one French fry on why an obese person is fat. Sure it played a PART, but if they never saw that fry they would still be fat.

If the warming trend is inevitable, as will be our next ice age for that matter, I have to ask why anyone would make to make token, but expensive gestures that do nothing but lower the quality of life of humans across the globe.

Interestingly the best hydrocarbon fuel engine at 100% efficiency produces only CO2 and water as 'waste'. This would be a wonderful achievement and in fact we are getting close to this at a practical level. Instead we are labing CO2 as a pollutant which is just insane.

All global warming advocates have are 'computer models' in their favor so to speak. Well those same models can't 'predict' the global cooling of the 70's can't recreate any past climates, yet we are suppose to trust them as a crystal ball for the future?

Pardon me for doubting.
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Old 09-09-2007, 09:04 AM   #26 (permalink)
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Bottom line, as most people here have pointed out, there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that anthropogenic activity has had a significant effect on the global increase in temperature since the 1970s. There is virtually no disagreement about this among the scientific community.

Every "scientific" argument the deniers make (that I have seen) is very easily debunked, just as every "scientific" argument the creationists make is easily debunked (or the Holocaust deniers, or the HIV/AIDS deniers, or the smoking/cancer deniers, or the round earth deniers, etc.).

For example, the argument that there have always been climate cycles is certainly true, but the causes of those cycles (e.g. periodicity in the earth's rotation or sunspot variation) cannot explain the recent warming.

It should also be pointed out that the scientific community in general is inherently conservative. A consensus of this kind takes many years to develop, after all the counter-arguments have been addressed in all possible permutations, in great detail in the peer-review process. This in fact is one of the criticisms of the IPCC and other formal bodies, namely that they strive to be so careful in their conclusions that they end up about 5 years behind the science, which currently is implying that the situation is a lot worse than previously thought.

Global warming denialism logically is a form of conspiracy theory, since it has to explain why thousands of scientists all over the world and international scientific bodies have all come to the identical conclusion. If that conclusion were wrong, then there must be a grand, global conspiracy of some kind that involves just about every climate science laboratory in the world.
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Old 09-09-2007, 04:01 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raveneye
Bottom line, as most people here have pointed out, there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that anthropogenic activity has had a significant effect on the global increase in temperature since the 1970s. There is virtually no disagreement about this among the scientific community.
The fact that you think this saddens me. Its quite amazing how a population in the information age can be so susceptible to what amounts to propaganda.

And lets pretend your blanket statement was true. There was a consensus that man would never fly at one point by the scientific community. There was a consensus that animals were spontaneously generated by their environment. There was a consensus that nuclear fallout was safe after the initial exposure.

Consensuses mean absolutely nothing in science. Nature is not a democracy.

But just back to your original point....

http://www.oism.org/pproject/index.htm

Quote:
Letter from Frederick Seitz
Research Review of Global Warming Evidence

Below is an eight page review of information on the subject of "global warming," and a petition in the form of a reply card. Please consider these materials carefully.

The United States is very close to adopting an international agreement that would ration the use of energy and of technologies that depend upon coal, oil, and natural gas and some other organic compounds.

This treaty is, in our opinion, based upon flawed ideas. Research data on climate change do not show that human use of hydrocarbons is harmful. To the contrary, there is good evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful.

The proposed agreement would have very negative effects upon the technology of nations throughout the world, especially those that are currently attempting to lift from poverty and provide opportunities to the over 4 billion people in technologically underdeveloped countries.

It is especially important for America to hear from its citizens who have the training necessary to evaluate the relevant data and offer sound advice.

We urge you to sign and return the petition card. If you would like more cards for use by your colleagues, these will be sent.

Frederick Seitz
Past President, National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.
From what I gather they had over 17,000 signatures from scientists, engineers, an other doctors.

Among the scientists qualified in the field, there is no consensus that global warming has human causes. I hate to break your bubble, really.
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Old 09-09-2007, 04:04 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Bottom line, as most people here have pointed out, there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that anthropogenic activity has had a significant effect on the global increase in temperature since the 1970s. There is virtually no disagreement about this among the scientific community.
As my Psych Professor repeatedly says, "Corrolation does not mean causation!"

Temperatures have been going up since the mid 19th Century, and industry has increased since the mid 19th Century. These have two things in common, but there's no evidence one causes the other. The EXACT same data can be used to say Global Warming pushed industrialization along... absurd isn't it?

Quote:
For example, the argument that there have always been climate cycles is certainly true, but the causes of those cycles (e.g. periodicity in the earth's rotation or sunspot variation) cannot explain the recent warming.
Can those computer models explain the Medieval warming trend when Greenland supported a Viking colony of 10k people, with all their livestock (approximately 3-4 per person)? Or when the French were complaining that the English started making better wine then them? The answer is no, they just ignore it hoping we will too.

Quote:
Global warming denialism logically is a form of conspiracy theory, since it has to explain why thousands of scientists all over the world and international scientific bodies have all come to the identical conclusion. If that conclusion were wrong, then there must be a grand, global conspiracy of some kind that involves just about every climate science laboratory in the world.
Conspiracy theory? You misunderstand the argument because you don't want to hear it. People don't deny the world is getting warmer, the cause of it is under contention by scientists worldwide. You think there is a unanimous scientific contention of manmade global warming? Then you need to do read a lot more.

NASA recently announced there is global warming on Mercury, Venus, and Mars... is that because our industry? Oh nevermind, NASA is in on the conspiracy. Nothing to see here people...
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Old 09-09-2007, 10:41 PM   #29 (permalink)
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The logical fallacies of global warming denialists are easy to demonstrate. Here are some nice examples.

First they often say that scientific consensus is meaningless because, for example, nature is not a democracy. Then they attempt to refute global warming by claiming that there is no scientific consensus. This of course contradicts their own logic; you can’t have it both ways.

Second, there’s what we might call the “some guy said on the web” fallacy. Global warming denialists don’t support their claims by citing peer-reviewed research articles. This strategy would fail miserably, because the overwhelming scientific evidence is not in their favor. So instead they cherry-pick stuff from the web. For example, they cite web petitions that anybody could sign numerous times, and claim that these petitions prove that there is no consensus among “scientists qualified in the field”. Of course, they fail to point out the obvious, namely that the “some guy said on the web” plea can be used to prove absolutely anything you want.

Third, we have the time-tested “strawman” argument, in which the denialist tries to make scientists look stupid by misreprenting their arguments, which he obviously does not understand. The most common of these among the denialists is the “correlation does not prove causation” plea, but close on its heels is the “models can’t predict what I don’t want them to be able to predict” hope, which is more wishful thinking than anything else.

There are many others, and I’m sure we will continue to see them. What is encouraging, however, is that the denialism community does show signs of progress. In the mid 1990s they were claiming that global warming per se was a hoax, loudly and swaggeringly. Now they seem to have abandoned that proposition. Whether this progress was purely a political strategy (after all they don’t want to look like complete fools to their constituents) or whether it really is an embracement of the science is an open question.
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Old 09-10-2007, 04:56 AM   #30 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Seaver
As my Psych Professor repeatedly says, "Corrolation does not mean causation!"

While this statement is generally true and very useful when evaluating hypothesis it does not come into play once something graduates to theory, as the Data has already created the link between cause and effect.

Temperatures have been going up since the mid 19th Century, and industry has increased since the mid 19th Century. These have two things in common, but there's no evidence one causes the other. The EXACT same data can be used to say Global Warming pushed industrialization along... absurd isn't it?

Actually, no it cannot. Climate change does not "Produce" compounds that might increase temperatures, whereas industry most certainly does. There is no doubt whatsoever within science that the use use of carbon as a fuel source releases CO2, nor is there any measurable dispute as to the effect this gas has on temperatures. There are issues that pertain the the level of said effect, but not to the effect itself. Denying the validity of the data collected does not make one seem informed about the chemical composition of the fuels in use.



Can those computer models explain the Medieval warming trend when Greenland supported a Viking colony of 10k people, with all their livestock (approximately 3-4 per person)? Or when the French were complaining that the English started making better wine then them? The answer is no, they just ignore it hoping we will too.

Yes, they can. Though using other data is more accurate for this time frame:
Quote:
Medieval Warm Period - 9th to 14th Centuries
Norse seafaring and colonization around the North Atlantic at the end of the 9th century was generalized as proof that the global climate then was warmer than today. In the early days of paleoclimatology, the sparsely distributed paleoenvironmental records were interpreted to indicate that there was a "Medieval Warm Period" where temperatures were warmer than today. This "Medieval Warm Period" or "Medieval Optimum," was generally believed to extend from the 9th to 13th centuries, prior to the onset of the so-called "Little Ice Age."

In contrast, the evidence for a global (or at least northern hemisphere) "Little Ice Age" from the 15th to 19th centuries as a period when the Earth was generally cooler than in the mid 20th century has more or less stood the test of time as paleoclimatic records have become numerous. The idea of a global or hemispheric "Medieval Warm Period" that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globa.../medieval.html



Conspiracy theory? You misunderstand the argument because you don't want to hear it. People don't deny the world is getting warmer, the cause of it is under contention by scientists worldwide. You think there is a unanimous scientific contention of manmade global warming? Then you need to do read a lot more.

NASA recently announced there is global warming on Mercury, Venus, and Mars... is that because our industry? Oh nevermind, NASA is in on the conspiracy. Nothing to see here people...
This is another example of the dodge, and an attempt to sideline a serious discussion with something irrelevant to our earth. Temperature fluctuations on any other planet mean virtually nothing to the climate here, short of major changes in the solar output. While there are data pointing to cyclical changes in the star we orbit, they too have not been adequately shown to be a player in the climate shift we are experiencing. So...here you not only manage to claim the invalid "Corrolation does not mean causation" argument, you then try to use it to support a theory no planetary scientist would ever bring up, for fear of getting laughed out of the Lab. Though there is not consensus that CO2 is causing this shift in temperatures, there IS consensus that the gas can increase temperatures when added in bulk to a system that cannot remove it quickly enough. This is not in doubt within the community.
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Old 09-10-2007, 11:22 AM   #31 (permalink)
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Actually, no it cannot. Climate change does not "Produce" compounds that might increase temperatures, whereas industry most certainly does.
You misinterpretted me. What I was saying is there is a link between temperature increase and the growth of industrialization. One can easily argue that the increase in temperature relates to a longer and more stable growing season for those growing on the American plains and up in norther Europe, where the major industrialization countries were placed. One can then use this corrolation to argue that the increased yield helped specialization and therefore education to increase the scientific breakthroughs we now know as the Industrial and Post-Industrial eras.

Much like how historians now cite the Black Plague as a major stepping stone on the path to the democratic and populist movements now encompassed as "Western Society." It's absurd at first to think of that, but the corrolation is there. The plague killed millions, an estimated 1/5-1/3 of the population. Nobility no longer had the serfs to work the fields, nor the ability to prevent the free movement of said workers. The peasants could now demand increased salary, better treatment, and more control over thier own lands. It became their own lands because the nobility no longer could control or maintain it, or their own expenses, so they sold or leased off the property. Suddenly the merchant class boomed, families rose and families fell. I'm not even going to go into the religious aspects of it, as the plague has even been cited as a justification for Luther's split with the papacy.
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Old 09-10-2007, 01:14 PM   #32 (permalink)
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My current book I'm reading and about 1/2 way through is 'The Ancestors Tale' by Richard Dawkins.

For those of you who don't know who he is, he is an evolutionary biologist who wrote 'The God Delusion' and if you still don't know who he is, he was married to Mrs. Garrison in a South Park episode.

He's kind of a dick about his opinions, which explains why I like him even when I don't agree with him 100%.

He is a premiere evolutionary biologist. One of my few regrets is that I didn't persue evolutionary biology as a carreer. Its something I'm a true natural at, I set the curve in an 800 person class without cracking a book, and if you show me an animal I can almost trace its evolution just based on the physiology and ethology. Potential perhaps wasted but I can't complain.

Now most of you have already stopped reading, but for those who haven't I'm sure you are wondering how this all ties into this thread.

Well just in two points. One was a part where he was talking about the theory of plate techtonics. At the time in the 60's this was still contriversial and he mentioned how after a lecture on it his professor took a vote in the class what their thoughts were (50-50 btw). He lamented that a vote was taken as truth is not determined by voting and it sends the wrong message to the students.

Then he mentioned how antartica was once sub-tropical (and it was at the pole, it must have been an amazing place with amazing adaptations due to the light/dark cycle and if I had stupid money I'd sponser a major paelentological dig there).

You see there were several periods of time where the poles had no ice at all, and at least once it appears the world was 100% covered with ice. Climatology really isn't a big enough word to cover trying to understand this, its really planetology, though even that doesn't cover it as the sun figures into the equation directly and perhaps most strongly of all.

You can argue until you are blue in the face about what you THINK is happening, but really no one knows. None of the current models can explain the cooling in the 1970's or the little ice age. In fact some are going so far as to try and claim they didn't happen in order to make the models look better. No one knows why Europe was warmer in Roman times, and while deforestation was once blamed for the Sahara desert now being a desert, it seems its far more complex than ancient humans cutting down trees for ships. Hell climate change is a possible culprit for the weakening of the Roman empire according to some historians.

The problem is we don't rightly know how the system works.

Now you can say the logical choice would be, since we don't know, we should make sure we don't do anything that might affect this. In most cases I do agree with this type of thinking, but not here. Mostly because the solutions are such that either they are expensive and would make NO impact on the climate like Koyto (even Koyto supporters have admitted this) or are so restrictive that they become not expensive but repressive. Real DATA, not computer models but monkey see monkey measure data does not support the conclusion that we are the cause of a warming trend.

Compared to natural green house gas sources, humanity is pretty weak. Perhaps the worst offenders are not our cars, but our cows, and even then, we may have billions of livestock animals, much of those have just replaced the original fauna such as the buffalo, Elk, an large ruminants, so how much of an increase I'm not sure.

My point is you don't change millions of peoples lives on a unproven chance. The same type of people, and I'd guess some of the same people who want this now are the same ones that thought we should blacken the poles in the 1970's to prevent the great global cooling that would have starved millions of us by the 90's had it been true. They lamented the governments lack of interest and how they wouldn't do anything until it was 'too late'. Then a mere 5 years later, its all about the global warming.
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Old 09-10-2007, 01:47 PM   #33 (permalink)
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I beg to differ, there is plenty of evidence pointing to the cause of the little ice age....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Quote:
Solar activity

Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon.During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum. The physical link between low sunspot activity and cooling temperatures has not been established, but the coincidence of the Maunder Minimum with the deepest trough of the Little Ice Age is suggestive of such a connection [19]. The Spörer Minimum has also been identified with a significant cooling period near the beginning of the Little Ice Age. Other indicators of low solar activity during this period are levels of the isotopes carbon-14 and beryllium-10 [20].


Volcanic activity
Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world also experienced heightened volcanic activity.[21] When a volcano erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole of Earth. This ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur in the form of SO2 gas. When this gas reaches the stratosphere, it turns into sulfuric acid particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching Earth's surface. The 1815 eruption of Tambora in Indonesia blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without A Summer, when frost and snow were reported in June and July in both New England and Northern Europe.
I also beg to differ on humanities contribution to global warming, these are also well documented....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

Quote:
Over the past several years, public perceptions and attitudes concerning the causes and importance of global warming have changed. Increased awareness of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the suggested effects of global warming, while their actual emissions have been negligible compared to the developed world. At the same time, developing country exemptions from provisions of the Kyoto Protocol have been criticized by the United States and Australia, and have been used as part of their rationale for continued non-ratification. In the Western world, the idea of human influence on climate and efforts to combat it has gained wider acceptance in Europe than in the United States.

Fossil fuel organizations and companies such as American Petroleum Institute and ExxonMobil, represented by individuals such as Philip Cooney and some think tanks such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the Cato Institute, have campaigned to downplay the risks of climate change, described by some as climate change denial. Environmental groups and public figures have launched campaigns emphasizing the risks. Recently, some fossil fuel companies have scaled back such efforts or called for policies to reduce global warming.

This issue has sparked debate regarding the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases versus the effects on economic activity. In the U.S., the political manipulation of scientific testimonies and reports has also become an issue. There has also been discussion in several countries about the cost of adopting alternate, cleaner energy sources in order to reduce emissions.

Another point of debate is the degree to which newly-developed economies, such as India and China, should be expected to constrain their emissions. China's CO2 emissions (mainly from coal power plants and cars), are expected to exceed those of the U.S. within the next few years (and according to one report may have already done so). China has contended that it has less obligation to reduce emissions, since its emissions per capita are about one-fifth those of the U.S.; the U.S. contends that if they must bear the costs of reducing emissions, so should China. India will also soon be one of the biggest sources of industrial emissions, and has made assertions similar to China's on this issue.
But you are right that Dawkins is married to Mrs. Garrison, and righfully so, as his "opinions" have been accepted as fact, when they are nothing more than delusions, which have been thrown out to the masses in order to sell more books. Thank God for free enterprise.
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Old 09-12-2007, 01:05 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Is global warming a threat to the human species? ROBIN THOMPSON, Oxford

Yes. You could say that the human species is a threat to the human species. I recommend Al Gore's film on global warming. See it and weep. Not just for the human species. Weep for what we could have had in 2000, but for the vote-rigging in Jeb Bush's Florida.

--Richard Dawkins, ethologist, evolutionary biologist and popular science writer who holds the Charles Simonyi Chair for the Public Understanding of Science at Oxford University, United Kingdom

http://news.independent.co.uk/people...cle2037496.ece
This is another favorite tactic of global warming denialists. They reference distinguish scientists in a context that implies that those scientists themselves have serious doubts about global warming, when the truth is quite the reverse.

Dawkins for instance would consider anybody who uses his books to cast doubt on global warming as kooks or in the pocket of oil companies, or both.

Last edited by raveneye; 09-12-2007 at 01:32 AM..
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Old 09-13-2007, 03:54 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ustwo

My point is you don't change millions of peoples lives on a unproven chance. The same type of people, and I'd guess some of the same people who want this now are the same ones that thought we should blacken the poles in the 1970's to prevent the great global cooling that would have starved millions of us by the 90's had it been true. They lamented the governments lack of interest and how they wouldn't do anything until it was 'too late'. Then a mere 5 years later, its all about the global warming.
There is a small difference between a fringe group of the community making a statement on hypothesis, and the vast majority of an entire community of multiple fields expressing support for a theory. You claim to be scientifically minded Ustwo, yet the way you express logic does not point to this as reality. When the Global cooling hypothesis was in play, virtually no one took it seriously due to a complete lack of supporting Data. The current support for Global Warming however, has become mainstream thought in the scientific community. Timelines are increasingly important in this consensus, and have added a certain level of momentum to a desire to act.
As visible changes predicted my science begin to be documented (polar melting as an example), the perceived need for action is increased, and society begins to pay more attention to the science. As for the "mere 5 years later" statement, I am sure you are aware that many more scientists were studying the warming trend at the time, than were involved in Snowball Science...but this does not support your stance, and is easily ignored in light of that.
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Old 09-13-2007, 07:30 AM   #36 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by raveneye
This is another favorite tactic of global warming denialists. They reference distinguish scientists in a context that implies that those scientists themselves have serious doubts about global warming, when the truth is quite the reverse.

Dawkins for instance would consider anybody who uses his books to cast doubt on global warming as kooks or in the pocket of oil companies, or both.
Oh I was sure Dawkins was a global warming guy, I never claimed he didn't support it in the least, but I do respect his evolutionary biology work. Dawkins is as bad as anyone on the political side and I tend to glance at those as he will use out of context quotes or even bogus ones of GW as supporting his position on religion. It is the current book I"m reading on the subject of evolution. The nice thing about something that happened 100 million years ago is that people forget their politics when talking.

Honestly I'm the only scientist HERE in this thread, but I like to try to get people to think a bit differently than what they are spoon fed. Instead one person attacks Dawkins as a hack the other tries to claim I'm using his name to make me look better, and a third I'm not sure what is talking about.

Tecoyah the global cooling scare (and the temperatures DID go down) was in the late 70's by the early 80's thats when the scientific community started to talk about global warming. Those are the 5 years I'm talking about. I'm not denying there might be a warming trend, I do not think its human caused though. This does not put me in a fringe unless you are talking about whats in the media. I'd put any member of this fringe vrs anyone else in a debate about the science behind human caused global warming. Its not enough to show its happening, you must show we are a the problem.

If you can find me a global warming model that would explain the past climates I might take notice, but they can't show the last 100 years which are well documented, how the hell do you expect anyone with a clue to believe they can do the next 100 years? Hell they don't even agree with each other, but since they all show 'warming' they are all equally bad right? Garbage in garbage out.

Oh and Dave, what are you begging to differ on? Your thoughts, as you just cut and pasted an article I am already familiar with (the information not the source) and the second article didn't say anything.

I want you three to take a look at this diagram.



In light of davids first quote, what does this tell you?
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Old 09-13-2007, 11:36 AM   #37 (permalink)
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You should know by now, none of my posts make any sense. I could've posted many articles and countless pretty graphs to make my point, but I'm to damned lazy...Ok, just one pretty graph



Carbon dioxide during the last 400,000 years and (inset above) the rapid rise since the Industrial Revolution; changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, known as Milankovitch cycles, are believed to be the pacemaker of the 100,000 year ice age cycle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

Your graph may be prettier Ustwo.....
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Old 09-13-2007, 01:21 PM   #38 (permalink)
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I find it very interesting that CO2 started rising 100 years before Industrialization.... yet industrialization is to blame.
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Old 09-14-2007, 12:00 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
Honestly I'm the only scientist HERE in this thread,
Really? That is surprising, since no scientist would have been fooled, as you were, by the methodology of the Seitz petition that you cited above:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo

http://www.oism.org/pproject/index.htm

From what I gather they had over 17,000 signatures from scientists, engineers, an other doctors.
Here’s the petition text:

http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p37.htm

If you scroll down, you’ll see the text “Please send more petition cards for me to distribute.”

Any practicing scientist (such as myself) will find this absolutely hilarious. Not only can I sign the petition multiple times, but I can order more and distribute them to all my friends to sign, and they too can get multiple copies. We can have a party and invite the whole Elk’s Lodge. No wonder the petition has 19,000 signatures. Science sure is great, I can make it say whatever I want to.

Before hearing that you’re a scientist, Ustwo, I would have thought the chances were zero that any scientist would be so gullible. Sorry to have to tell you, I still think the chances are zero.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ustwo
I want you three to take a look at this diagram.
Nice example of how “correlation doesn’t prove causation” vanishes like a ghost whenever global warming deniers talk about sunspots.

Anybody who wants to claim that solar radiation is responsible for the recent rise in temperature, feel free to explain the following data.



This is a graph of four different measures of incident solar radiation, followed by the observed temperature rise since 1975. These are (a) sunspot number, R; (b) the open solar flux Fs from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field; (c) the Climax cosmic ray neutron counts C; and (d) the total solar irradiance, TSI. Sharp readers will note that while the temperature has been rising, the solar radiation overall trend has been slightly falling.

Go ahead, propose a causal model that explains how a slight negative trend in solar radiation can cause a large positive trend in temperature. The scientific community would be very interested in seeing it.

Ref:Lockwood and Froelich, 2007, Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A 463: 2447-2460.
http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media...pa20071880.pdf

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seaver
I find it very interesting that CO2 started rising 100 years before Industrialization.... yet industrialization is to blame.
Hint: stable isotopes.

Last edited by raveneye; 09-14-2007 at 12:03 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 09-14-2007, 12:42 PM   #40 (permalink)
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I'm glad we have actual scientists on the board but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to interpret the data. No offense meant to raveneye or Ustwo, its just that most members aren't practicing scientists, and I don't think thats necessary to have an informed opinion on global warming. I've said this before in similar threads, just open your eyes and look around, profound changes are already under way. A constant barrage of "this is a natural cycle" isn't going to cut it anymore. Theres nothing natural about burning untold billions of tons of fossil fuels over several hundred years. Almost anyone can see that. Almost.....
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