09-04-2007, 11:52 AM | #1 (permalink) | |
Insane
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The North Pole is melting
http://www.socc.ca/seaice/seaice_current_e.cfm
http://intothegreyzone.blogspot.com/ Quote:
The more ice free sea there is , the more heat is absorbed - which leads to more ice melting and more ice free sea, and so on. It's a "positive feedback loop", the melting is not linear. I don't know if global warming is all our fault but I think this is significant news. |
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09-04-2007, 12:18 PM | #2 (permalink) |
will always be an Alyson Hanniganite
Location: In the dust of the archives
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All I want to know is whether or not the property value is going to rise, on my house in Omaha, due to its being on beachfront property.
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"I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do because I notice it always coincides with their own desires." - Susan B. Anthony "Hedonism with rules isn't hedonism at all, it's the Republican party." - JumpinJesus It is indisputable that true beauty lies within...but a nice rack sure doesn't hurt. |
09-04-2007, 12:24 PM | #4 (permalink) |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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From that site...
This major decline in sea ice extent is consistent with the general consensus in the sea ice community that the loss of sea ice is accelerating and anthropogenic climate warming is one of the main causes This major decline in sea ice extent is consistent with the general consensus in the sea ice community that the loss of sea ice is accelerating Maybe, I've also seen data showing just the opposite, which ironically blamed global warming too. but.............. anthropogenic climate warming is one of the main causes Bullocks... I won't get into this too much this time but there is strong evidence of a 1500 year warming/cooling cycle. There is NO evidence of human global warming, period, nothing, not a scientific shred, but there is plenty of evidence of this cycle. Correlation does NOT equal causation, period.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
09-04-2007, 12:33 PM | #6 (permalink) | |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
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09-04-2007, 12:37 PM | #7 (permalink) | |||
Junkie
Location: Fort Worth, TX
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...arming.html#Q3
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In short the scientists don't know, nor can they explain much of what they find. Very few (if any) hold out that there is change to the global environment, the debate lays in the cause and effect it will hold on society. I personally do not believe it will hold much of an impact. We have risen .2 Degree Celsius since the mid 19th Century according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and with that have seen the biggest economic, social, and technological boom ever in history. I'm not saying lets turn the heat up and keep it going, but it obviously is not as bad as Gore makes it out to be.
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"Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas |
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09-04-2007, 01:31 PM | #9 (permalink) | |
will always be an Alyson Hanniganite
Location: In the dust of the archives
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To a point. I mean, I'm sure that you are correct. The fossil record shows that climate change is cyclic. We're probably due. Not too much that we can really do about that. Adapt, I guess. However...to claim that all of the pollutants, that mankind has belched into the atmosphere just over the past hundred years, have not had a significant effect is a bit naive. Don't you think? Seriously? I mean it has to have had some impact on all of this. Even if it's just a simple escalation.
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"I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do because I notice it always coincides with their own desires." - Susan B. Anthony "Hedonism with rules isn't hedonism at all, it's the Republican party." - JumpinJesus It is indisputable that true beauty lies within...but a nice rack sure doesn't hurt. |
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09-04-2007, 01:47 PM | #11 (permalink) |
still, wondering.
Location: South Minneapolis, somewhere near the gorgeous gorge
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OMG! What about Santa and the elves and the reindeer???
The pole will remain after the ice is gone, until the theoretical flip-flop thing. (Yeah, sorry) Still and all, Omaha becoming a beachfront anytime within our timeframe seems highly unlikely.
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BE JUST AND FEAR NOT |
09-04-2007, 01:55 PM | #12 (permalink) | |
Darth Papa
Location: Yonder
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Second question, only sort of related. Do you believe that if we altered our behavior, we could ameliorate the effects of this (granted-for-the-sake-of) non-human-caused phenomenon? Is even the most massive world-wide effort enough to impact this (granted-for-the-sake-of) natural cycle? Or are we on this roller-coaster without any brakes for as far as it takes us? |
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09-04-2007, 01:57 PM | #13 (permalink) | ||
Pissing in the cornflakes
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We don't KNOW the effects but I do not think they are anywhere near worthy of acting all hysterical about it. As you know from my past postings it annoys me to no end to have people with absolutely no scientific backgrounds or even interests acting like we have to do SOMETHING now in some feel good gesture. Not that you fit this group of course, but you don't have to ask around to long to find someone like that.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-04-2007, 04:08 PM | #14 (permalink) |
peekaboo
Location: on the back, bitch
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I'm no scientist by any stretch of the imagination, but to reverse the line of thinking, why, as NOT being one, should I be irresponsible about my place in all this? Isn't it better to err on the side of helping, even if the data isn't complete?
/me goes outside and burns leaves for a week and cuts down a bunch of trees, then hauls them off in her massive 8mpg SUV...
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Don't blame me. I didn't vote for either of'em. |
09-04-2007, 04:21 PM | #15 (permalink) | |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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Environmentalists are trying to take the 'easy' way to get public environmental concerns going with the 'OH MY GOD WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!' type of alarmism. The problem is that in the long run, that doesn't work, and doesn't change the social conscious. When it turns out we are not all going to die people will go back to not caring and might even go overboard out of resentment for being duped in the first place. Crying wolf isn't what we need, we need people actually caring about the environment for its own sake. Only then will you see real changes in lifestyle.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-04-2007, 04:32 PM | #16 (permalink) |
Junkie
Location: Fort Worth, TX
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I am, and always have, considered myself an environmentalist. The best thing Clinton ever did, in my opinion, is the massive Federal Park land grants. I believe we need to clean the air, water, and need to have massive investments in Wind/Air/Tidal energy generation.
I do, however, believe that the environmental "cause" has been hijacked by global socialists and the anti-globalization crowd. By running around saying the sky is falling, and taking the focus away from key pollutants (sulfates and nitrates) and onto CO2 is ubsurd. There is very little evidence out there already, and the evidence there is contradicts itself at every turn that CO2 causes global warming. If we want to save the environment, clean the air/water/land I'm all for it. However I do not want my cause to be hijacked because people don't want industry in China to go up because they do not want a stronger global economy.
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"Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas |
09-04-2007, 07:07 PM | #17 (permalink) | |
Pickles
Location: Shirt and Pants (NJ)
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We Must Dissent. |
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09-04-2007, 10:22 PM | #18 (permalink) | |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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You know those cute pictures with NYC underwater?
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-05-2007, 03:28 AM | #19 (permalink) |
Junkie
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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How the hell do you turn C02 to electricity... (!).
I think this is rather a simplification. It takes a lot of water, clearly, to raise sea level. The important issue is the trend (or not, given there are always fluctuations) as well as the reflectivity change. Last edited by Nimetic; 09-05-2007 at 03:30 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost |
09-05-2007, 05:08 AM | #20 (permalink) | |||
Illusionary
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Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha |
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09-05-2007, 02:13 PM | #21 (permalink) |
Future Bureaucrat
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Has anyone seen "An Inconvenient Truth." Gore presented a very convincing argument for the causation of CO2 and Global warming. I don't know about you all, but I'd rather not wait for it to get 122 degrees outside (which has happened in India already) before finally acting.
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09-05-2007, 03:30 PM | #22 (permalink) | |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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An inconvenient truth is propaganda, nothing more, and like all propaganda its very convincing if you don't know what you are looking at.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-05-2007, 03:37 PM | #24 (permalink) | ||
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
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09-05-2007, 03:45 PM | #25 (permalink) | |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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If the warming trend is inevitable, as will be our next ice age for that matter, I have to ask why anyone would make to make token, but expensive gestures that do nothing but lower the quality of life of humans across the globe. Interestingly the best hydrocarbon fuel engine at 100% efficiency produces only CO2 and water as 'waste'. This would be a wonderful achievement and in fact we are getting close to this at a practical level. Instead we are labing CO2 as a pollutant which is just insane. All global warming advocates have are 'computer models' in their favor so to speak. Well those same models can't 'predict' the global cooling of the 70's can't recreate any past climates, yet we are suppose to trust them as a crystal ball for the future? Pardon me for doubting.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-09-2007, 09:04 AM | #26 (permalink) |
Born Against
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Bottom line, as most people here have pointed out, there is an overwhelming scientific consensus that anthropogenic activity has had a significant effect on the global increase in temperature since the 1970s. There is virtually no disagreement about this among the scientific community.
Every "scientific" argument the deniers make (that I have seen) is very easily debunked, just as every "scientific" argument the creationists make is easily debunked (or the Holocaust deniers, or the HIV/AIDS deniers, or the smoking/cancer deniers, or the round earth deniers, etc.). For example, the argument that there have always been climate cycles is certainly true, but the causes of those cycles (e.g. periodicity in the earth's rotation or sunspot variation) cannot explain the recent warming. It should also be pointed out that the scientific community in general is inherently conservative. A consensus of this kind takes many years to develop, after all the counter-arguments have been addressed in all possible permutations, in great detail in the peer-review process. This in fact is one of the criticisms of the IPCC and other formal bodies, namely that they strive to be so careful in their conclusions that they end up about 5 years behind the science, which currently is implying that the situation is a lot worse than previously thought. Global warming denialism logically is a form of conspiracy theory, since it has to explain why thousands of scientists all over the world and international scientific bodies have all come to the identical conclusion. If that conclusion were wrong, then there must be a grand, global conspiracy of some kind that involves just about every climate science laboratory in the world. |
09-09-2007, 04:01 PM | #27 (permalink) | ||
Pissing in the cornflakes
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And lets pretend your blanket statement was true. There was a consensus that man would never fly at one point by the scientific community. There was a consensus that animals were spontaneously generated by their environment. There was a consensus that nuclear fallout was safe after the initial exposure. Consensuses mean absolutely nothing in science. Nature is not a democracy. But just back to your original point.... http://www.oism.org/pproject/index.htm Quote:
Among the scientists qualified in the field, there is no consensus that global warming has human causes. I hate to break your bubble, really.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-09-2007, 04:04 PM | #28 (permalink) | |||
Junkie
Location: Fort Worth, TX
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Temperatures have been going up since the mid 19th Century, and industry has increased since the mid 19th Century. These have two things in common, but there's no evidence one causes the other. The EXACT same data can be used to say Global Warming pushed industrialization along... absurd isn't it? Quote:
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NASA recently announced there is global warming on Mercury, Venus, and Mars... is that because our industry? Oh nevermind, NASA is in on the conspiracy. Nothing to see here people...
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"Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas |
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09-09-2007, 10:41 PM | #29 (permalink) |
Born Against
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The logical fallacies of global warming denialists are easy to demonstrate. Here are some nice examples.
First they often say that scientific consensus is meaningless because, for example, nature is not a democracy. Then they attempt to refute global warming by claiming that there is no scientific consensus. This of course contradicts their own logic; you can’t have it both ways. Second, there’s what we might call the “some guy said on the web” fallacy. Global warming denialists don’t support their claims by citing peer-reviewed research articles. This strategy would fail miserably, because the overwhelming scientific evidence is not in their favor. So instead they cherry-pick stuff from the web. For example, they cite web petitions that anybody could sign numerous times, and claim that these petitions prove that there is no consensus among “scientists qualified in the field”. Of course, they fail to point out the obvious, namely that the “some guy said on the web” plea can be used to prove absolutely anything you want. Third, we have the time-tested “strawman” argument, in which the denialist tries to make scientists look stupid by misreprenting their arguments, which he obviously does not understand. The most common of these among the denialists is the “correlation does not prove causation” plea, but close on its heels is the “models can’t predict what I don’t want them to be able to predict” hope, which is more wishful thinking than anything else. There are many others, and I’m sure we will continue to see them. What is encouraging, however, is that the denialism community does show signs of progress. In the mid 1990s they were claiming that global warming per se was a hoax, loudly and swaggeringly. Now they seem to have abandoned that proposition. Whether this progress was purely a political strategy (after all they don’t want to look like complete fools to their constituents) or whether it really is an embracement of the science is an open question. |
09-10-2007, 04:56 AM | #30 (permalink) | ||
Illusionary
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Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha |
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09-10-2007, 11:22 AM | #31 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Fort Worth, TX
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Much like how historians now cite the Black Plague as a major stepping stone on the path to the democratic and populist movements now encompassed as "Western Society." It's absurd at first to think of that, but the corrolation is there. The plague killed millions, an estimated 1/5-1/3 of the population. Nobility no longer had the serfs to work the fields, nor the ability to prevent the free movement of said workers. The peasants could now demand increased salary, better treatment, and more control over thier own lands. It became their own lands because the nobility no longer could control or maintain it, or their own expenses, so they sold or leased off the property. Suddenly the merchant class boomed, families rose and families fell. I'm not even going to go into the religious aspects of it, as the plague has even been cited as a justification for Luther's split with the papacy.
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"Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas |
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09-10-2007, 01:14 PM | #32 (permalink) |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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My current book I'm reading and about 1/2 way through is 'The Ancestors Tale' by Richard Dawkins.
For those of you who don't know who he is, he is an evolutionary biologist who wrote 'The God Delusion' and if you still don't know who he is, he was married to Mrs. Garrison in a South Park episode. He's kind of a dick about his opinions, which explains why I like him even when I don't agree with him 100%. He is a premiere evolutionary biologist. One of my few regrets is that I didn't persue evolutionary biology as a carreer. Its something I'm a true natural at, I set the curve in an 800 person class without cracking a book, and if you show me an animal I can almost trace its evolution just based on the physiology and ethology. Potential perhaps wasted but I can't complain. Now most of you have already stopped reading, but for those who haven't I'm sure you are wondering how this all ties into this thread. Well just in two points. One was a part where he was talking about the theory of plate techtonics. At the time in the 60's this was still contriversial and he mentioned how after a lecture on it his professor took a vote in the class what their thoughts were (50-50 btw). He lamented that a vote was taken as truth is not determined by voting and it sends the wrong message to the students. Then he mentioned how antartica was once sub-tropical (and it was at the pole, it must have been an amazing place with amazing adaptations due to the light/dark cycle and if I had stupid money I'd sponser a major paelentological dig there). You see there were several periods of time where the poles had no ice at all, and at least once it appears the world was 100% covered with ice. Climatology really isn't a big enough word to cover trying to understand this, its really planetology, though even that doesn't cover it as the sun figures into the equation directly and perhaps most strongly of all. You can argue until you are blue in the face about what you THINK is happening, but really no one knows. None of the current models can explain the cooling in the 1970's or the little ice age. In fact some are going so far as to try and claim they didn't happen in order to make the models look better. No one knows why Europe was warmer in Roman times, and while deforestation was once blamed for the Sahara desert now being a desert, it seems its far more complex than ancient humans cutting down trees for ships. Hell climate change is a possible culprit for the weakening of the Roman empire according to some historians. The problem is we don't rightly know how the system works. Now you can say the logical choice would be, since we don't know, we should make sure we don't do anything that might affect this. In most cases I do agree with this type of thinking, but not here. Mostly because the solutions are such that either they are expensive and would make NO impact on the climate like Koyto (even Koyto supporters have admitted this) or are so restrictive that they become not expensive but repressive. Real DATA, not computer models but monkey see monkey measure data does not support the conclusion that we are the cause of a warming trend. Compared to natural green house gas sources, humanity is pretty weak. Perhaps the worst offenders are not our cars, but our cows, and even then, we may have billions of livestock animals, much of those have just replaced the original fauna such as the buffalo, Elk, an large ruminants, so how much of an increase I'm not sure. My point is you don't change millions of peoples lives on a unproven chance. The same type of people, and I'd guess some of the same people who want this now are the same ones that thought we should blacken the poles in the 1970's to prevent the great global cooling that would have starved millions of us by the 90's had it been true. They lamented the governments lack of interest and how they wouldn't do anything until it was 'too late'. Then a mere 5 years later, its all about the global warming.
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
09-10-2007, 01:47 PM | #33 (permalink) | ||
Playing With Fire
Location: Disaster Area
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I beg to differ, there is plenty of evidence pointing to the cause of the little ice age....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age Quote:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming Quote:
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Syriana...have you ever tried liquid MDMA?....Liquid MDMA? No....Arash, when you wanna do this?.....After prayer... |
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09-12-2007, 01:05 AM | #34 (permalink) | |
Born Against
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Dawkins for instance would consider anybody who uses his books to cast doubt on global warming as kooks or in the pocket of oil companies, or both. Last edited by raveneye; 09-12-2007 at 01:32 AM.. |
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09-13-2007, 03:54 AM | #35 (permalink) | |
Illusionary
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As visible changes predicted my science begin to be documented (polar melting as an example), the perceived need for action is increased, and society begins to pay more attention to the science. As for the "mere 5 years later" statement, I am sure you are aware that many more scientists were studying the warming trend at the time, than were involved in Snowball Science...but this does not support your stance, and is easily ignored in light of that.
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Holding onto anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. - Buddha |
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09-13-2007, 07:30 AM | #36 (permalink) | |
Pissing in the cornflakes
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Honestly I'm the only scientist HERE in this thread, but I like to try to get people to think a bit differently than what they are spoon fed. Instead one person attacks Dawkins as a hack the other tries to claim I'm using his name to make me look better, and a third I'm not sure what is talking about. Tecoyah the global cooling scare (and the temperatures DID go down) was in the late 70's by the early 80's thats when the scientific community started to talk about global warming. Those are the 5 years I'm talking about. I'm not denying there might be a warming trend, I do not think its human caused though. This does not put me in a fringe unless you are talking about whats in the media. I'd put any member of this fringe vrs anyone else in a debate about the science behind human caused global warming. Its not enough to show its happening, you must show we are a the problem. If you can find me a global warming model that would explain the past climates I might take notice, but they can't show the last 100 years which are well documented, how the hell do you expect anyone with a clue to believe they can do the next 100 years? Hell they don't even agree with each other, but since they all show 'warming' they are all equally bad right? Garbage in garbage out. Oh and Dave, what are you begging to differ on? Your thoughts, as you just cut and pasted an article I am already familiar with (the information not the source) and the second article didn't say anything. I want you three to take a look at this diagram. In light of davids first quote, what does this tell you?
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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps. |
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09-13-2007, 11:36 AM | #37 (permalink) |
Playing With Fire
Location: Disaster Area
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You should know by now, none of my posts make any sense. I could've posted many articles and countless pretty graphs to make my point, but I'm to damned lazy...Ok, just one pretty graph
Carbon dioxide during the last 400,000 years and (inset above) the rapid rise since the Industrial Revolution; changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, known as Milankovitch cycles, are believed to be the pacemaker of the 100,000 year ice age cycle. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming Your graph may be prettier Ustwo.....
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Syriana...have you ever tried liquid MDMA?....Liquid MDMA? No....Arash, when you wanna do this?.....After prayer... |
09-13-2007, 01:21 PM | #38 (permalink) |
Junkie
Location: Fort Worth, TX
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I find it very interesting that CO2 started rising 100 years before Industrialization.... yet industrialization is to blame.
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"Smite the rocks with the rod of knowledge, and fountains of unstinted wealth will gush forth." - Ashbel Smith as he laid the first cornerstone of the University of Texas |
09-14-2007, 12:00 PM | #39 (permalink) | ||||
Born Against
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http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p37.htm If you scroll down, you’ll see the text “Please send more petition cards for me to distribute.” Any practicing scientist (such as myself) will find this absolutely hilarious. Not only can I sign the petition multiple times, but I can order more and distribute them to all my friends to sign, and they too can get multiple copies. We can have a party and invite the whole Elk’s Lodge. No wonder the petition has 19,000 signatures. Science sure is great, I can make it say whatever I want to. Before hearing that you’re a scientist, Ustwo, I would have thought the chances were zero that any scientist would be so gullible. Sorry to have to tell you, I still think the chances are zero. Quote:
Anybody who wants to claim that solar radiation is responsible for the recent rise in temperature, feel free to explain the following data. This is a graph of four different measures of incident solar radiation, followed by the observed temperature rise since 1975. These are (a) sunspot number, R; (b) the open solar flux Fs from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field; (c) the Climax cosmic ray neutron counts C; and (d) the total solar irradiance, TSI. Sharp readers will note that while the temperature has been rising, the solar radiation overall trend has been slightly falling. Go ahead, propose a causal model that explains how a slight negative trend in solar radiation can cause a large positive trend in temperature. The scientific community would be very interested in seeing it. Ref:Lockwood and Froelich, 2007, Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A 463: 2447-2460. http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media...pa20071880.pdf Quote:
Last edited by raveneye; 09-14-2007 at 12:03 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost |
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09-14-2007, 12:42 PM | #40 (permalink) |
Playing With Fire
Location: Disaster Area
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I'm glad we have actual scientists on the board but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to interpret the data. No offense meant to raveneye or Ustwo, its just that most members aren't practicing scientists, and I don't think thats necessary to have an informed opinion on global warming. I've said this before in similar threads, just open your eyes and look around, profound changes are already under way. A constant barrage of "this is a natural cycle" isn't going to cut it anymore. Theres nothing natural about burning untold billions of tons of fossil fuels over several hundred years. Almost anyone can see that. Almost.....
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Syriana...have you ever tried liquid MDMA?....Liquid MDMA? No....Arash, when you wanna do this?.....After prayer... |
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melting, north, pole |
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