01-03-2008, 07:45 PM | #1 (permalink) | ||
Baltimoron
Location: Beeeeeautiful Bel Air, MD
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Obama, Huckabee win Iowa caucuses
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nat...l_tab01_layout
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I think the interesting question is to the Democratic side, because of how many young people not just support Obama, but how many actually came out to do so. Is this a trend that could continue into the actual primaries?
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"Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen." --Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun |
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01-03-2008, 08:05 PM | #3 (permalink) |
Deja Moo
Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
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I love that the "inevitables" from both parties have been humbled by real people. The pundits' little pointy heads are exploding.
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"You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007 |
01-03-2008, 08:12 PM | #4 (permalink) | |
All important elusive independent swing voter...
Location: People's Republic of KKKalifornia
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If Huckabee can win from 3%, then maybe Ron Paul can do some damage too. Oh and Elph, my pointy little head exploded too!! |
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01-03-2008, 08:16 PM | #5 (permalink) |
Deja Moo
Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
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Eh...let someone else clean up the mess.
I just love that it is still a peoples' vote. My heart has nearly exploded with hope.
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"You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007 |
01-03-2008, 10:28 PM | #6 (permalink) | |
Somnabulist
Location: corner of No and Where
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For the same reason that they hate Edwards, though, they hate Huckabee. He delivers a populist economic message that very directly contrasts the American people with the corporate interests that more or less run DC (and the media companies) today. Huckabee is also decidedly not an establishment insider, as he evinces sincere religious beliefs and comes not from boarding schools and mutual funds but Arkansas (hicksville to the DC insiders, one of the reasons they also hated the Clintons). Now, I happen to think Huckabee would make for a disastrous president, and that none of his policy prescriptions would actually change this country's economic situation for the better. He wouldn't actually do anything to the big corporations. But he campaigns as if he would. If Huckabee wins the Republican nomination, I fully expect DC insiders to do everything in their power to stop him. They really hate this guy. P.S. I predict Obama/Somebody vs. McCain/Somebody. I just can't see Romney winning with his combination of under performance, obvious lying, and (unfortunately this matters in the Republican primary) Mormon faith. I think Republicans will eventually settle on McCain as the candidate they least utterly despise, as at the very least he has the respect of a lot of people and gets the full-on blowjob treatment from the press.
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"You have reached Ritual Sacrifice. For goats press one, or say 'goats.'" |
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01-03-2008, 11:34 PM | #8 (permalink) | |
Getting it.
Super Moderator
Location: Lion City
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I just found these stats on another site:
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I am also glad to see that Giuliani is done. I just hope he throws in the towel soon.
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"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke |
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01-04-2008, 12:46 AM | #9 (permalink) |
Lennonite Priest
Location: Mansfield, Ohio USA
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Well, I left Edwards for Biden because I liked Biden's message, his experience and what I have read about him as a decent man who has mucho respect from both parties.
I guess it's back to Edwards and working my butt off to help him in any way I can. I don't see Obama taking New Hampshire and S. Carolina is going to be an Edwards/Obama horse race..... Michigan I see now going to Edwards by blowout, I see Edwards taking quite a bit and surprising everyone, he truly has a great platform and message of hope, strength and growth. Obama's only hope is getting the youth to vote, and Clinton is dead in the water. I look for an Edwards/Clinton ticket and that is the winning ticket.... I would never vote for Hilary for President but I can handle her as VP. The 2 big exit poll questions that show me Edwards can win it all: Cares about people like me 44% (20 over Obama and 22 over Hilary) Has the best chance to win in November 36% (6 over Hilary and a HUGE 13 over Obama) Those 2 are what the nation as a whole I think will vote on in the future primaries and I believe Edwards to be control those 2 aspects. The Clinton war machine is in trouble, they focus too much on Obama and quite possibly will destroy him..... I don't see them having anything to destroy Edwards with, nor would they want to as I think he's her only hope on the ticket at all.... (yet, nothing that shrill bitch does surprises me.) Plus, in '04 the GOP/Bush mudslingers could never find a damned thing on Edwards. That says something right there about the man.....maybe he doesn't have any skeletons that bad. Great showing by the man some people expected would finish 4th. ============================================== On the GOP side, the Dem in me likes to see Huckabee win because that means the Dems can run on "separation of church and state" against him and crush him. But, part of me is saddened because that is not the way to win it should be because platform is better. Ron Paul, Mitt Romney are the GOP "true electables" and only hope to win come Nov. I think with this win it's all but over on the GOP side and it will be a Huckabee/Romney ticket..... I think if Paul is left off (and I believe he will be), you'll see maybe a Ron Paul/ John McCain combo ticket and you'll see a Perot effect destroying the GOP's White House hopes or a Ron Paul/Bill Richardson ticket where both they show a Bipartisanship flavor and take enough votes away from both parties to have a true mess and President elected with an under 45% popular vote (and that ticket may actually win). This could be a very, very interesting election and one that no matter who wins the whole course of the nation could change very swiftly.
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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?" Last edited by pan6467; 01-04-2008 at 01:23 AM.. |
01-04-2008, 01:24 AM | #11 (permalink) | |
Lennonite Priest
Location: Mansfield, Ohio USA
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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?" |
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01-04-2008, 09:13 AM | #12 (permalink) | |
Crazy
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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One thing is for sure, it is going to be interesting to see how the also-rans of both sides adjust and move forward! |
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01-04-2008, 09:48 AM | #14 (permalink) |
Upright
Location: Kansas City, MO
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I, for one, can't WAIT for Barrack Obama to be the President. I am so very pleased that he has won in Iowa. I think he's a really strong candidate, I believe what he says... he speaks with great passion. I know that may sound naive, but there's something about this guy that moves me to stand behind him.
The only thing that really concerns me is, that no matter who our next President is, he/she will have their work more than cut out for them. I mean, I can't imagine trying to clean up this clusterfuck that we have going on now. I can't wait until November so I can vote for Obama myself!
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That is all. |
01-04-2008, 09:49 AM | #15 (permalink) |
Junkie
Location: San Francisco
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Oh, yeah. Giuliani is spending time in Florida all right. I'm in Florida now and I've seen about 14 of his "9/11 freedom America fight terrorist" television ads. The guy is such a nutbag. What would he be doing without 9/11?
Glad to see Obama win but I'm still undecided between him and Edwards. The rest have all spent way too much time inside the Beltway or in church and lost contact with the real world. Earth to Hillary!
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"Prohibition will work great injury to the cause of temperance. It is a species of intemperance within itself, for it goes beyond the bounds of reason in that it attempts to control a man's appetite by legislation, and makes a crime out of things that are not crimes. A Prohibition law strikes a blow at the very principles upon which our government was founded." --Abraham Lincoln Last edited by n0nsensical; 01-05-2008 at 09:17 AM.. |
01-04-2008, 10:32 AM | #16 (permalink) | ||||
Banned
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01-04-2008, 03:13 PM | #18 (permalink) | |
Deja Moo
Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
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Host: Thanks for the info, it's something to consider. I'm pretty sure that one or two other candidates signed that pig of a bill, too.
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"You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007 |
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01-04-2008, 03:45 PM | #19 (permalink) | |||
Banned
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If you want to be taken seriously, as a candidate for an office as high as US Senator, or president, you must be wise enough, patient enough, and have your greedy impulses under control enough, to the point where you avoid even the appearance of impropriety. Biden clearly didn't, and Obama has not, either. He has the problem of making a decision, if that is all that it is, of buying the rest of his house lot from a man who has a criminal reputation, a man who Obama had not already held at arm's length. Did whitewater turn into an eight year, partisan witch hunt on any things more substantative than what I've just described about Biden and Obama? I like Edwards, but even he fails in his reaction to our worst symptom of corporate takeover, and lack of priorities and fiscal discipline, not to mention the pandering that is required to go along with it. We are spending ten times as much on annual defense as the next closest rival. It is not okay. It is extreme militarism. Again, Russ Feingold's record makes the current contenders look almost almost as bad as they are. THEY ARE UNACCEPTABLE ! Quote:
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01-04-2008, 04:14 PM | #20 (permalink) |
Minion of the scaléd ones
Location: Northeast Jesusland
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Well that takes my guy out of the race. Sorry, Chris.
Nice to see Mrs. Clinton finish third, but, unfortunately, that's not weak enough to count her out yet. She's the only Democrat other than Kucinich who could lose this, and only to John McCain. We won't know til February, but I think Rudy may have miscalculated. On paper gong for the big fish was a good idea, but the way the media is talking he's going to have a hell of a time changing the narrative to give himself the (false) appearance of electability after a month of stories about finishing behind Ron Paul.
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Light a man a fire, and he will be warm while it burns. Set a man on fire, and he will be warm for the rest of his life. |
01-04-2008, 07:54 PM | #21 (permalink) | |
Location: Washington DC
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Going back for 40 years or so, only two Presidents won the Iowa caucus when they were not already incumbents - both Bushes. Clinton came in third in 1992, Reagan lost to George HW Bush in 1980....so I dont put much stock in the Iowa results as a measure of electability.
Huckabee won because 60% of the voters were self-identified born-again christians or evangelicals.....that wont be the case in most larger more diverse states. And on the Democratic side, never count out the Clintons. They have the best political machine and most experienced national ground network among the big three. Hillary is also still way head in delegate count since, for now, she still has commitments from many of the "super delegates" (members of Congress and party leaders - according to an AP survey, Clinton has 160, Obama has 59 and Edwards has 32). Feb 5 will be the decider, when the big states are heard from. Quote:
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"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 01-04-2008 at 08:07 PM.. |
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01-04-2008, 08:16 PM | #22 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Indiana
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Please get real. The huge failures were Rudy and Romney. Rudy went from 30%-4% in Iowa and campaigned there more than Ron. Romney spent retarded amounts of money there and couldn't pull first. Ron went from 0%-10%. Get your facts straight.
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It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize. |
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01-04-2008, 08:28 PM | #23 (permalink) |
Location: Washington DC
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Sam....you're right. If you look back at my last post, you will see I changed "big loser" to "wont do any damage" before you posted in order to respond directly to Jorgelito's post. But coming in fifth out of seven can hardly be considered a victory for Ron Paul.
Romney was the biggest loser and if he loses NH to McCain, he is dead. If McCain wins NH....he will have the "big mo" going into a heavy military state like SC and beyond. Rudy made a huge strategical blunder by not actively campaigning or spending money in Iowa (he announced before the Aug straw polls that he would not campaign or build a ground network in Iowa ..and he certainly didnt campaign there more than RP) and he may never recover. BTW, those polls you insisted were so unreliable pretty much had it right in Iowa. Huckabee - 34% (and ave of last 5 polls - 30%)All within a few points margin of error - pretty damn close for a multi-person list of candidates and far closer than your straw polls and internet "click" polls. The average of latest 5 polls for NH as of today have Paul at 7.6%...this is the "live free or die" and "no tax" state where Pat Buchanan won the primary in '96 (he beat Bob Dole)....so you would think Paul would be polling higher. Perhaps he will get 10% again and still come in fifth. Thats why I think he wont "do any damage".
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"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 01-04-2008 at 10:22 PM.. Reason: corrected wrong year for Buchanan win in NH.....'96 not '92 |
01-04-2008, 10:37 PM | #24 (permalink) |
Deja Moo
Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA
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Two major corrections on a couple of my previous posts. The delegate count for the top three was from my morning paper and *way* off the mark.
Second, I need a good night's sleep. Host, I was thinking Dodd, when I posted about Biden. You concerns about my sudden tilt caused me to look back at what I wrote and go "huh?" At the risk of making similar mistakes due to lack of sleep, I am going to stick with and support Edwards for as long as he stays in the race. I love the *idea* of a first ever black or female president, and I also see that Edwards has been shut out by the media. He intends to undo media consolidation among many other anti-trust issues, and his nomination is the most feared by the corporate establishment. I have a sense that he will make good cabinet choices, as well. Issues over coolness, I sez.
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"You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007 |
01-05-2008, 01:00 AM | #25 (permalink) | |
All important elusive independent swing voter...
Location: People's Republic of KKKalifornia
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DC, the "damage" I am thinking about is more along the lines of garnering enough votes to make the other candidates take notice. To shake things up a bit. For example, if Ron does run as an independent and even manages to grab 3-5% and the Dem candidate wins by 3-5%, I would consider that to be damage (and I would love it too to be quite honest). Actually, I would hope that maybe a couple of more 3rd party candidates come out and grab 1-5% of the vote, just to shake things up, like Nader, Bloomberg, maybe Forbes. etc. maybe even Lieberman. Anyways, on a side note, it looks like McCain is not quite dead yet and Guiliani seems finished (yes I know it's way early but it's just a feeling, sorry, no links or sources). Another side note, DC, do you have any more of those charts and graphs showing voter demographics (from a previous thread I think talking about voter preference)? i would love to see a comparison with the Iowa caucus. I am particularly interested in the contrast between Hillary Clinton and Baraka Obama. I thought it was interesting which demographics leaned towards which candidates. |
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01-05-2008, 04:27 AM | #26 (permalink) | |
Location: Washington DC
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I think its too soon to know if there will be third party candidates....its dependent on the two major party candidates. But the Greens dont want Nader this time around and among possible scenarios, I dont think Bloomberg will run if its a Obama/McCain race, but will run if its Clinton/Huckabee (very unlikely) CNN has interesting "entrance" polls with demographics of Iowa voters (gender, age, income, urban/rural, etc) Democratic Republican The only demographics Hillary won were married women (barely), seniors over 65 (significantly) and those who prefer "experience" over "change"(significantly).
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"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 01-05-2008 at 05:25 AM.. Reason: fixed link |
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01-05-2008, 09:04 AM | #27 (permalink) | |
Minion of the scaléd ones
Location: Northeast Jesusland
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Looks like the Greens are going to try and get that all important Muppet Demographic. McKinney/Elmo 08. Nice to see the Greens slink back to the irrelevancy they earned with Nader.
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Light a man a fire, and he will be warm while it burns. Set a man on fire, and he will be warm for the rest of his life. |
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01-05-2008, 09:24 AM | #28 (permalink) |
Location: Washington DC
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Tophat.....the Greens wont select their candidate until July from among 7 candidates, but the buzz is that McKinney is the leading contender.
http://www.gp.org/press/pr-national.php?ID=2 She will set them back, but on other hand she is a publicity hound who will at least draw attention to the party.
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"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire |
01-05-2008, 06:06 PM | #29 (permalink) |
Baltimoron
Location: Beeeeeautiful Bel Air, MD
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http://www.jaredball.com/
This is one of the Green Party candidates. He came to my newswriting class for a mock press conference, and I might consider voting for him if I didn't disagree with just about his entire platform, as well as consider him completely and utterly insane Nice guy, though.
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"Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen." --Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun |
01-05-2008, 07:33 PM | #30 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Indiana
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Rumsfeld really didn't deny any of it, rather he claimed he was uninformed or brushed it off. Whoever the green party or third party candidates are, hopefully they can take votes away from the Republicans and Democrats and bring the parties back to where they should be.
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It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize. |
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01-06-2008, 04:34 PM | #32 (permalink) |
Easy Rider
Location: Moscow on the Ohio
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Like many others, I had this one figured all wrong. I did not expect Obama to do so well against Hillary and/or Edwards in lily white Iowa.
What a strange development, the under 30 crowd seems to be going for Obama and Paul. One is an old libertarian and the other a young socialist. |
01-06-2008, 08:08 PM | #33 (permalink) | |
Location: Washington DC
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Huckabee got 40% to Paul's 21%...perhaps the evangelical influence.
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"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire |
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01-07-2008, 07:06 AM | #34 (permalink) | |
Minion of the scaléd ones
Location: Northeast Jesusland
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What I found really interesting was the income and urbanity splits. It pretty much supports what pundits have been saying about Huckabee as a populist inurgency. If you like in the city and/or make a large amount of money, you probably voted for Romney. Otherwise, you went with Huckabee. I also thought that it was sort of interesting that McCain becomae a more likely choice as the caucus got closer. And it was downright amusing that McCain, the straight talker, did better with the women than ladies' man Thompson.
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Light a man a fire, and he will be warm while it burns. Set a man on fire, and he will be warm for the rest of his life. |
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08-23-2008, 08:53 AM | #35 (permalink) | |
Banned
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RE: Post #16..... and congratulations to all of you who have supported Barak Obama...I hope you're happy, today !
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Obama and Biden are served up to insure the least change that they elite can get away with permitting.... rioting, at some point, or....a US version of Hugo Chavez, will be the inevitable result, my friends ! |
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08-24-2008, 05:50 AM | #37 (permalink) | |
Getting it.
Super Moderator
Location: Lion City
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I am glad you are out there in the ether railing away, but you have to know that what you are doing is less than tilting at windmills.
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"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke |
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caucuses, huckabee, iowa, obama, win |
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