Going back for 40 years or so, only two Presidents won the Iowa caucus when they were not already incumbents - both Bushes. Clinton came in third in 1992, Reagan lost to George HW Bush in 1980....so I dont put much stock in the Iowa results as a measure of electability.
Huckabee won because 60% of the voters were self-identified born-again christians or evangelicals.....that wont be the case in most larger more diverse states.
And on the Democratic side, never count out the Clintons. They have the best political machine and most experienced national ground network among the big three. Hillary is also still way head in delegate count since, for now, she still has commitments from many of the "super delegates" (members of Congress and party leaders - according to an AP survey, Clinton has 160, Obama has 59 and Edwards has 32).
Feb 5 will be the decider, when the big states are heard from.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by jorgelito
Agreed!! Congrats Obama Barak.
If Huckabee can win from 3%, then maybe Ron Paul can do some damage too.
|
IMO, I dont see Paul Ron (I couldnt resist
) doing any damage. He was counting on a large turnout among young Independents and they went overwhelmingly for Barak Obama. If that trend continues, RP will never get beyond his fifth place, 10% showing in Iowa.