Sam....you're right. If you look back at my last post, you will see I changed "big loser" to "wont do any damage" before you posted in order to respond directly to Jorgelito's post. But coming in fifth out of seven can hardly be considered a victory for Ron Paul.
Romney was the biggest loser and if he loses NH to McCain, he is dead. If McCain wins NH....he will have the "big mo" going into a heavy military state like SC and beyond.
Rudy made a huge strategical blunder by not actively campaigning or spending money in Iowa (he announced before the Aug straw polls that he would not campaign or build a ground network in Iowa ..and he certainly didnt campaign there more than RP) and he may never recover.
BTW, those polls you insisted were so unreliable pretty much had it right in Iowa.
Huckabee - 34% (and ave of last 5 polls - 30%)
Romney - 25% (ave of last 5 polls - 26%)
McCain - 13% (ave of last 5 polls - 11%)
Thompson - 13% (ave of last 5 polls - 11%)
Paul - 10% (ave of last 5 polls - 8%)
Guiliani - 3% (ave of last 5 polls - 6%)
http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
All within a few points margin of error - pretty damn close for a multi-person list of candidates and far closer than your straw polls and internet "click" polls.
The
average of latest 5 polls for NH as of today have Paul at 7.6%...this is the "live free or die" and "no tax" state where Pat Buchanan won the primary in '96 (he beat Bob Dole)....so you would think Paul would be polling higher. Perhaps he will get 10% again and still come in fifth.
Thats why I think he wont "do any damage".