04-26-2011, 08:17 PM | #441 (permalink) |
Psycho
Location: The Aluminum Womb
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availability isn't a factor?
In the words of a British actor pretending to be an American doctor: "numbers don't lie" -House EDIT: to put a quote from the good doctor
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04-26-2011, 10:59 PM | #442 (permalink) |
Upright
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I'll admit I haven't read the whole thread, but I think there's something very important to consider here.
It is too late to ban guns in America. There are already waaaay too many in circulation to do so successfully. This is not the UK, which has had some measure of success with a gun ban. The US is much, much larger, and is not an island. This is unfortunate for Mexico, where the US drug market and US gun market are driving the drug wars and arming their footsoldiers. |
04-26-2011, 11:21 PM | #443 (permalink) |
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The ban thing is a bit of a strawman. The vast majority of the left want gun control, not an outright ban. We're a bit concerned about the ease with which people, particularly criminals, can get guns. I'm not a fan of private gun sales, for example. I like background checks.
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04-27-2011, 03:31 AM | #444 (permalink) |
Super Moderator
Location: essex ma
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actually, now that i think about it, i'm surprised that christian-types oppose state bailouts. i augustine is correct about original sin, the whole jesus thing was a bailout.
without it, the business model of being-human could lead to nothing but failure.
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04-27-2011, 07:22 AM | #445 (permalink) | ||
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Mexico's Gun Supply and the 90 Percent Myth | STRATFOR And looky here: Grenades hurled at police and security forces: Gang gun battles, street blockades in Mexico Grenades are tightly controlled in the US, along with other explosives. What's likely happening is that weapons are flowing in from sources other than the US. While it's true that *some* weapons are moving from the USA to Mexico, the large majority come from other sources--perhaps even from corrupt security forces and the like. Take this for what it's worth, I've gotten in to a heated debate about this before and would rather not argue it again.
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04-27-2011, 07:29 AM | #446 (permalink) |
warrior bodhisattva
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Location: East-central Canada
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Why are only ~1 out of 10 of those guns coming out of the U.S.? You'd think it would be higher.
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04-27-2011, 08:20 AM | #447 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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The chart is based on guns seized, might be an issue.
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04-27-2011, 08:27 AM | #448 (permalink) |
warrior bodhisattva
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Location: East-central Canada
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Right. Maybe it's more difficult to seize guns originating from the U.S. because the border is larger and likely more porous than others.
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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot |
04-27-2011, 08:35 AM | #449 (permalink) |
Asshole
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Location: Chicago
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Or it could be what guns are favored by the gangs. If they don't want long guns and pistols and are opting for automatic weapons, those are going to be much more difficult to secure in the US.
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04-27-2011, 08:46 AM | #450 (permalink) |
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Location: essex ma
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or the neat pie graphic kirstang posted could sit on studies so methodologically problematic as to be disinformation. but it's cool in paranoia.
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a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite |
04-27-2011, 08:49 AM | #451 (permalink) | ||
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Indeed, the 3 states south of Mexico (Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua) are mired in a drug war, with over 50% of their inhabitants living in poverty. It's incredible that, so much murder and violence are happening in the Countries south of Mexico (Panama's murder rate has also doubled in the past 3 years), yet, for all of the Isthmus's lawlessnes and drugs and violence (including many light aircraft using Guatemala as a backwater airport of sorts), it must be the AMERICAN border that's shifting guns south. Also don't forget the porous Mexican Guatemalan Border. Mexico's Other Border - National Geographic Magazine
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04-27-2011, 08:53 AM | #453 (permalink) | ||
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---------- Post added at 12:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:51 PM ---------- Yea. As cited before in this 10 page thread....Americans aren't nearly as destitute as other countries which fell to civil war. Thankfully, our institutions modulate grievances, and citizens aren't 'disappeared' for questioning the government.
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04-27-2011, 09:00 AM | #454 (permalink) |
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Location: essex ma
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i spent a while fiddling about the the sirpi small arms transfers database
SIPRI Arms Transfers Database — www.sipri.org but found the interface to be less that intuitive...maybe someone else who's done more work in researching international traffic in small arms for real has better insight into how to access and organize this data? if no, i'll leave it here for now and maybe return to the question should another occasion arise in a different thread...
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04-27-2011, 09:35 AM | #455 (permalink) | |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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---------- Post added at 12:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 PM ---------- Also BK look at this graph again- What exactly are the "other sources" mentioned? I'd also contend that the total number of "seized" weapons seems awfully low. My guess is there are two reasons for this- first, a lot of seized weapons never make it to any official location. They're either sold or kept by the seizing officials. Second, so many LEO here are on the drug lords payroll I'd guess the % of gun seized as compared to the number of guns in the country is extremely low. I'm just guessing but I base those guesses on newspaper and other news reports here in Mexico.
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04-27-2011, 10:05 AM | #456 (permalink) | |
Future Bureaucrat
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Yea, but unlike U.S. $100 bills, Russia, Bulgaria, S. Africa, China, Brazil and a host of other countries make guns.
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04-27-2011, 10:09 AM | #457 (permalink) |
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Location: essex ma
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but not at anywhere near the scale the united states does.
it's implausible that the united states is not a primary source of these weapons, just as it's implausible that the love canal is the cleanest spot in the united states. that said, at this point, i've nothing more to go on than a sense of implausibility. and frankly i've no idea how a coherent inventory would be taken.
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04-27-2011, 10:18 AM | #458 (permalink) | ||
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But if you're sure and can back up the small arms claim with concrete numbers and a semi-legitimate source, I'd gladly say you're right. There's also a whole body of ITAR laws for the exportation US made small arms, too.
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04-27-2011, 10:31 AM | #459 (permalink) |
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Location: essex ma
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well, the sirpi database is pretty definitive, but like i said i haven't the time at the moment to fight through the counter-intuitive interface to access the data.
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04-27-2011, 10:33 AM | #460 (permalink) | |
Upright
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If the tracing failed, it could be for a number of reasons, including that the guns were not of US origin. The number could be higher in practice, but it's rather difficult to survey these things. Of course, that's 3,500 guns that aren't particularly helping Mexico. I am curious, though; do you have similar data about the drug markets? |
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04-27-2011, 10:57 AM | #461 (permalink) |
warrior bodhisattva
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Location: East-central Canada
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Well, I guess that was my subtle point: the data doesn't paint a full picture. It tells us something specific and rather narrow.
It isn't very useful.
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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot |
04-27-2011, 12:11 PM | #462 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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So you think they drug cartels smuggle in truck loads of cash from the US and use massive amounts of other resources to get guns from places like China and the Middle East? Exactly how plausible does that honestly sound? I honestly don't think I've read one story where they've intercepted a cash shipment that didn't included and stockpile of weapons including many illegal in the US weapons. At some point Occam's razor kicks in, doesn't it? The drugs go north and the cash and weapons go south. Not exactly a huge secret here south of the border.
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04-27-2011, 12:28 PM | #463 (permalink) | ||
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04-27-2011, 12:34 PM | #464 (permalink) |
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Location: essex ma
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i haven't any hand grenade data, but i am confused about the relation between a question concerning small arms traffic and a question concerning hand grenades. how is this not like having a conversation about where hats come from and you insisting on talking about gloves?
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04-27-2011, 12:37 PM | #465 (permalink) | |
Future Bureaucrat
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Simple. Most of you insist guns and weapons are coming from the USA, since civilians can possess guns.
However, civilians cannot possess handgrenades, which seem to be used extensively by Mexican drug cartels. So, hand grenades aren't flowing from the North to the South, but most likely through other means--i.e. the Southern Border, or, even, the two masses of water bordering Mexico. If also follows then, that if its easier to smuggle things through the south or through the oceans, then, it's probably easier to smuggle small arms and other explosives through these other routes. If you don't mind, Id also love to see the cash smuggling articles you've read, Tully.
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04-27-2011, 12:41 PM | #466 (permalink) |
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Location: essex ma
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and what's at stake for you in this question?
what's your commitment to one answer as over against another?
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04-27-2011, 12:57 PM | #467 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
Super Moderator
Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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Well there in Spanish and there not on-line so... I have one around here I saved for a friend let me find it and scan it in.
As for hand grenades some really could come from the us and many could come from other countries. I have read stories about drug lords having solid gold automatic rilfes made and they do come from Asia. I don't argue all guns/weapons come for the US just a vast majority ---------- Post added at 03:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:50 PM ---------- Wait, exactly how many and how often do you think grenades are being used down here? And you do realize a lot of what gets reported as a hand grenade in the foreign press gets reported here as a home made explosive device. Sort like IEDs.
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I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club |
04-27-2011, 01:03 PM | #468 (permalink) | |
Future Bureaucrat
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I'm just trying to cast legitimate doubt on an oft-cited statistic (90% of guns used in Crimes in Mexico are traceable) in support of stricter US gun laws. With respect to what's my stake, you know I'm a gun nut, so I'm personally invested in dispelling stereotypical claims about guns and gun owners.
Tully, I don't know if I agree with the 'vast majority' claim, but I suppose we'll agree to disagree. I'm going to bow out now, since I probably spent 2 hours today digging up sources and writing on this topic. Good discussion, though. ---------- Post added at 05:03 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:59 PM ---------- According to WAPO, 72 grenade attacks in 2009-2010, apparently from the Cold War Era.
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04-27-2011, 01:10 PM | #469 (permalink) |
Super Moderator
Location: essex ma
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ah--i wasn't working off that statistic. and now that you note it, i can't imagine how it'd be established one way or another. as for tracking down data, it's kind of difficult to just pull numbers pertaining to these flows out of the air that are legit---the most accurate numbers track flows from specific firms to specific endpoints and so cannot account for the---um---informal traffic. the sources for that would likely be various agencies on both sides of the border concerned with interdiction or dealing with the consequences of all these people who are strapped. and that' s spotty affair, those numbers, by necessity. i suppose there could be some clandestine statistical database but i've never heard of such a thing---just because most folk who want to participate in clandestine networks and/or activities have a kind of commitment to the whole being-clandestine thing.
so one's left with intuitions, really. i don't have a particular iron in this fire. were i to argue for stricted gun control, it wouldn't be on these grounds anyway. interesting to see nonetheless. it's like running into a rearguard action from another battle film.
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04-27-2011, 01:13 PM | #470 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
Super Moderator
Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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What the Wapo?
Here's an article to muddy the waters for you- Read the whole thing I doubt it's 90% and I doubt it's 17%. My guess is it's somewhere in between and we'll never know that number or an accurate number regarding the amount of drugs headed north. For the record I like guns too. But I think most of the weapons being used come from the US. Rocket launch attacked and military grade weapons are no that common here, pistols and rifles are. But them again "los Zetas' the current biggest player prefers to cut heads off and hang bodies from building and bridges. Don't need a gun for that. Just a good knife and some rope.
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04-27-2011, 01:15 PM | #471 (permalink) | |
Future Bureaucrat
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Yea, I hate misinformation (even though both sides to the statistic may have their agenda, thus casting doubt on their veracity). Sorry to derail the thread.
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04-27-2011, 01:21 PM | #472 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Here's a recent example where "Crude explosive device" ends up being reported as a grenade-
Grenade?
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04-27-2011, 01:28 PM | #473 (permalink) | |
Future Bureaucrat
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And now, for some humor:
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04-27-2011, 01:30 PM | #474 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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Only problem I see is the car is actually an HK.
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05-15-2011, 12:51 AM | #475 (permalink) | ||||||||||||||
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My head hurts.
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If you compare CDC numbers with the Brady Campaign "kids killed by guns" numbers (a gunrights group did the side by side, I forget who, it;s online somewhere) they include "children" up to age 19 (the age that captures the 1st 3 years of the males aged 16-25 involvement in violent crime in the US), and include people shot by the police, shot by citizens defending themselves, shot by other young criminals, etc. It's a numbers game, about who can lie the most with statistics. I'm assuming you're referring to guns used inside the US? No, legal availability isn't a factor. The people obtaining them aren't legally allowed to possess or carry them in the first place due to young age, criminal record, lack of license, and so on. They aren't being obtained legally in almost 100% of the circumstances. Quote:
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The chart is based on guns seized, submitted to US law enforcement for tracing (meaning someone said "Hey, this gun looks like it came from the US"), and successfully traced by US law enforcement, who only have access to databases of info compiled in the US. This is a very narrow window. I bet if we went to a busy shopping mall and started writing down VIN numbers of every car we saw, then contacted Ford to trace all of them, they'd only be able to trace some of them...because Ford doesn't keep track of Chevy's VIN's, just Ford's. And naturally, a large percentage of the cars successfully traced in such a manner would come back to Ford, because...Ford had those records. The same circular logic is being applied here. Also, notice how they only specify that guns "originated" in the US. That could mean manufactured, exported, made for the military, etc. What it's being interpreted as is "guns originally bought in the US at a gun store by a private individual who turned around and gave it to the cartels as part of a scheme." That's just not the case. Most of the legally available guns popular in the US aren't popular with vicious cartel hitmen. Quote:
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Every other source. The cottage industry of copyright infringing copies of guns made in Asia without serial numbers, guns bought or stolen internationally outside of the channels that care about paperwork and laws, all kinds of other sources. Out of fear that the Germans were bound to invade the UK, large stashes of guns were hidden all over the place with no records kept of their locations for fear of the German's finding them. No one went and rounded them up later. After WW2 ended the US sold off many of the machines they'd used to make all manner of small arms, at auction, not enough questions asked, and they all sold. We're talking about people who don't have to go to a store to buy what they want, they don't have to buy it at all, they can just take it. How many conflicts have been fought around the world in the past 30-40 years? Quote:
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They have billions of dollars, and people from their own government who control things like import/export unrelated to the US border in their pocket. Why make thousands of little transactions when they can make one massive transaction from a cooperating entity on the other side of the planet? If Walmart can get cheap toasters to the US from China by sending them in bulk, don't you think others can do the exact same thing with weapons? Quote:
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The US sells old missile technology to other countries. If those exact systems start turning up in Mexican cartel's hands, are we going to start pushing for laws that make it illegal for Best Buy to sell home computers to everyday Americans? That's what this is akin to in gun terms. Sure both are computers, both plug into some power source and churn out code, but they only appear the same to people who don't know the difference. If my analogy sucks it's because I'm not a computer guy and I don't really know the difference there either. Placing more restrictions on channels that aren't used by the people doing most of the violence, based on incomplete data that's not being published, is a piss poor idea. Last edited by citadel; 05-15-2011 at 01:05 AM.. |
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05-15-2011, 05:29 AM | #476 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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I'm too wore out from weeks of dealing with some family issues to address the many, many falsehoods in your responses to me. Maybe at a later time I'll go by point to address them but for now let me just say in regards of the guns made of gold they absolutely exist, but are merely status symbols and never intended to function.
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05-15-2011, 06:42 PM | #478 (permalink) | |
Crazy
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05-16-2011, 07:06 AM | #479 (permalink) |
Living in a Warmer Insanity
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Location: Yucatan, Mexico
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Thanks for asking. After a very long illness (pretty much all his life, he contracted polio at age 2 in 1927) my father passed away. I'm currently in the US staying with my mother trying to help her through all this. Again thanks for your thoughts.
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