MuadDib

I'm curious what the Obama supporters here make of the New Hampshire primary. I think it's very telling that a candidate who had a double-digit lead in the polls 24 hours before the vote would end losing by 2%-3%. All the more so because New Hampshire is a more typical blue state than Iowa. Honestly, I did not believe Hillary was going to come back and win New Hampshire like Bill did, but I believed she was going to turn it around on Super Tuesday and take it to the White House. Now it looks like she'll get a boost in South Carolina, even if she doesn't take it, and then go on to dominate Nevada and Florida. Granted the latter doesn't have delegates, but I think a big win by anyone in Florida will sway a lot of voters since even non-voters are fully cognizant of effect it has on the general election. Hell a Republican hasn't won the White House without Florida since 1924!

I'm also curious what my fellow politicos here at TFP think account for Hillary's victory. Personally, I think her 'episode' yesterday in which she teared up helped her. I also think that Bill's last minute speech taking Obama to task for, among other things, his free pass by the media. Both of these things were criticized heavily by the media and political insiders, but I suppose those were the same people who said Obama by around 10% in New Hampshire.

Finally, what do you all think this entails for future primaries? I certainly don't think this marks any sort of death knell for anyone (not even Edwards or Giuliani), but I do think that this is a much more reeling defeat for Obama than Iowa was for Clinton. I say this because after Iowa everyone got so caught up in the Obama victory that many media outlets, pundits, and supporters from all camps were declaring Obama victories at least all the way through Super Tuesday. Hillary, on the other hand, was expected to win for almost a year and the tides only recently had changed and now, not long after, she has seemingly stemmed them with a most unlikely of victories. Declarations of Barak's 'inevitable' were just as adamantly posited, but now seem ridiculously short lived. His 'we can' slogan almost seems to have been co-opted by the Clinton campaign as she has lost the front-runner sheen and now has the comeback kid aura on her side that her husband rode all the way to Pennsylvania Ave.

(PS: Let's not rehash old Clinton-Obama arguments here, there are plenty of threads to find those. Let's discuss the democratic primary in light of developments from Iowa onwards and only talk about character, electability, etc as they apply to the rest of the election season)

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"The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751

Ustwo

I'm sort of surprised if this is true only because every FM radio station talk show seemed to be making fun of her this morning and even the women on my staff thought it was not what you want to see in a president.

Be sort of amusing if after all this it turns into Hilary McCain after all.

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Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

MuadDib

The major media outlets were the same, but I would argue that while generally they would be right but in this instance Hillary's perceived coldness and inhumanity is among (if not the) greatest objection many voters have to her. As counter-intuitive as it may seem, I believe that her showing human weakness makes us snicker at her, but at the same time helps us relate to her on a human level. Hillary is in the extremely uncommon position of being perceived as so calculating and so much of an insider that its a bigger obstacle to her nomination that she is too strong and political than that she exhibited weakness and foolishness.

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"The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751

Elphaba

I think this says everything about how people are disgusted with what the media chooses to report as important. The attempted manipulation of public opinion was far too obvious this time.

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"You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007

Ustwo

Well these were not 'media' people manipulating but D.J.'s who normally get no deeper then asking some 19 year old if she has sex with her boyfriend and if she cheats on him. I was desperate for a music station which is hard to find in the morning rush hour. Personally I found it annoying even if I'm not a fan of Clinton, but I rather doubt it was a premeditated smear campaign.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

MuadDib

Funny you should mention that. I just left the ticker section of CNN.com where I was commenting on a ticker 'news' piece about Hillary supporters 'booing' Obama's post-primary speech. I know it's a ticker item, but honestly this woman just overcame around a 10% (including margin of error) deficit (which itself probably swayed voters one way or another) to win the state by 2%. Instead of reporting on the Obama speech or how he lost New Hampshire after the entire race was declared 'his to lose', they decide to report on Hillary's supporters booing Obama. It truly is disgusting what the media chooses to report and how they slant it. Even for Obama supporters, I think that if this is a sign of voters not buying into spoon-fed media rhetoric then we can all take hope.

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"The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751

jorgelito

I think Hillary's decision to rub a dirty negative campaign unfortunately helped her.

At least Obama showed some class.

SecretMethod70

Precisely. There were at least some undecided female voters that I heard interviewed saying that Clinton's show of emotion contributed to their decision to vote for her.

As for Obama, I don't think this loss is that big of a deal. First off, New Hampshire is an unusual state. A great deal of people voting made their decision at the very last minute, which worked to Clinton's advantage between her show of emotion and Bill Clinton's (unfounded) criticisms against Obama. This is also a big reason the polls were so off. Secondly, Clinton technically got more votes, but the two of them are tied in terms of delegates won in NH, and that's all that really matters. When it comes down to it, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are each very much still in the game. We'll see some of the impact of New Hampshire in Michigan, but it doesn't really matter there since they've been stripped of delegates. So, the next vote that really matters is Nevada, where Obama will almost certainly get a boost from the caucus system. In fact, I'm quite positive he would have won New Hampshire, and by a decent margin, were it a caucus and not a primary. This plurality method of voting we have is just plain terrible, and people need to have the opportunity to express their second choice.

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Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Elphaba

Ustwo, a simple google news search would show you that your radio station reflected most of the media reporting. Clinton got hammered by every major media source. Romney can tear up every other day, but not Clinton.

She is damned if she is too strong, and damned if she shows a moment of vulnerabiliity. She is not my first choice, but dayum...I suspect she got a bump in NH because *real* people are sick and tired of the media telling us what we should think and feel.

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"You can't ignore politics, no matter how much you'd like to." Molly Ivins - 1944-2007

host

Nope....wouldn't want a president of the Untied States who isn't wooden:
<center><img src="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2007/01/12/wiraq12.jpg"></center>
Lincoln's close friend, the namesake of his late son, Edward Baker Lincoln, was killed on October 21, 1861, at the battle of Ball's Bluff, and later at a service for Baker held at the home of col. J.W. Webb, according to a reporter, Lincoln "wept like a child."

Who does the hiring of your staff Ustwo, you, or someone you interviewed, hired, and designated to do it?

MuadDib

If you want to take it that direction, I'm going to have to object. Clinton ran a very clean campaign in New Hampshire. Certainly she attacked Obama, but only in a permissible issue-related manner. But before you jump on me for my "issue-related" statement, let me clarify that Obama's personal experience and the manner in which he runs his campaign are issues because they are the chief things he campaigns on and why he claims he should be elected. Now, if you want to claim the choking up was some political strategy then I think you are making Hillary out to be a little more than she is. Granted the Clintons and their staff are superb campaigners, but they aren't prescient. Claims like this are the same made every time something happens to humanize Hillary. It's unrealistic and the simple truth is that (wait for it) Hillary actually is a human being! I think it's much more likely that a human being, even a superbly accomplished politician, might occasionally act humanly than that there exists any human so cunning and calculating that every human emotion they exhibit is just a means to ends.

As I said earlier, I don't think this is a make or break deal, but I do think this primary is a pretty big deal. New Hampshire isn't THAT unusual of a state. At least it is much more representative of the nation than Iowa, all the more so when we are talking about democratic politics specifically. I think Obama needs to learn a lesson from the state or it will become a big deal because he is relying so heavily on independent and young voters who did not come through for him in a heavily independent state.

Also, I do want to briefly address this notion that President Clinton's comments were "unfounded". The fact remains that Obama did say that he was the same as George Bush on the war, granted while in the context of the assumption that we were already in it. He also said he did not know how he would have voted on the war, granted in the light of the Democratic National Convention where he did not want to contradict party leaders on the issue. Further, I will contend that Obama is given a much easier ride by the media and he plays off of it, as well he should. He has a ludicrously short record which makes him difficult to report on and that is no fault of his own, but beyond that his newness is something the media can, and I contend does, get behind in order to increaser readership/viewership. It's the same thing they did with Dean. New players are better stories who will get protected for a time by the media until their newness wears off. It's a classic media sale tactic and the Clinton's are right to call attention to it. Overall, the reason none of this was unfounded was because these are the very issues on which Obama justifies his candidacy. He claims to be an agent of change but did not disagree with Bush as late as 2004 when talking about handling Iraq now that we were there. He claims to be someone who is not a business-as-usual kind of democrat, but he valued party unity over stating that he wouldn't have voted to go to war; that either makes him a business-as-usual party player or inconsistent on the issue in my book, I'll let him take his pick which.

You are right about the delegate count. What I want to know is where was this kind of analysis when Hillary got one less delegate in Iowa. This goes into the current media, and national, easy ride argument I already mentioned. When Hillary came in third in Iowa everyone was calling lights out for her and talking about the scathing defeat she suffered in a third place showing (though she picked up one more delegate than the second place candidate Edwards). Isn't it a little telling that this 'big picture' analysis only comes out now that Obama is on the receiving end? Also lets look at the superdelegates, if you want to measure the primary that way. All delegates currently accounted for gives Hillary 183 delegates to Obama's 78. Now I'm not saying that this is a huge difference, but the implication is that Obama needs to make up his deficit in superdelegates in pledged delegates. Simply tying Hillary or getting one more delegate is not going to cut it. The big picture at this stage in the race is NOT delegate count anyway, it's momentum. Hillary has effectively regained momentum, but not only that she can run with the image of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat which is a much bigger deal than a delegate count this early on.

I hate to say it but your analysis, which is the Obama camps analysis as well, is the same that lost Dean the nomination. You want to rely on the caucus system which is out of sync with what actually get candidates nominated. Focusing on delegates means ignoring states like Michigan and Florida, which lost their delegates, even though the results of these states (especially Florida) will be what make up voters minds coming into Super Tuesday, which almost always decides the nomination. Momentum, surprise victories and losses, and, unfortunately, media coverage is what wins elections. Hillary is primed to strike now with most recent polls showing her leading Obama by 12% in Nevada and 22% in Florida. That was before her upset victory this evening! She is in a great position because she has the momentum, the national lead, and, perhaps most importantly, she has the media in a position where they can't just turn around and declare the race 'her's to lose' again. They are going to have to either continue portraying the race as Obama's to lose (which will make New Hampshire appear like a biting loss to him) or portray it as clean and even between them (which gives her an edge in fact because she is leading in the major remaining states because she ran a national campaign early on). This race is NOT over, but I strongly disagree with your analysis and believe that if the Obama campaign chooses to approach New Hampshire and the future campaign the way you do then they will lose. Obama will be reeling from tonights primary and to brush that aside would be more than foolish, if he is to win he is going to need to dig deep and stem the momentum beyond just South Carolina, but in every race up until Super Tuesday. Moreover, if the Clinton campaign can portray New Hampshire correctly then they can make that task a monumental task for Obama.

Elphaba, I do have to say that Hillary is my first choice and I know she is not yours, but despite that I really like your attitude towards this election. I personally feel it's different for me to say that I would have to grit my teeth to vote for Obama than for all the Hillary haters out there to decry her from within her own party. I truly hope that these democrats are just getting caught up in the excitement of the primaries with a good field of democrats where there is a lot of hope for the future in a democratic win regardless of which one we choose. Your ability to look past your first choice and see that the real issue is getting neo-cons out and some democrat blood in brings me hope that regardless of who our nominee is (Clinton, Obama, or even Kucinich or Gravel) that at the end of the day the next four years will be so much brighter than the last eight we've had to endure.

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"The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751

SecretMethod70

Frankly, I have no idea how the Obama campaign is spinning it. I was looking at delegate counts after both Iowa and New Hampshire. You're 100% correct. I think the superdelegates are immensely stupid and undemocratic, and they upset me, but the reality is still there. Again, 100% correct.

My "analysis" (and I don't really feel comfortable calling it that, because that implies that I was doing more than just typing some quick thoughts onto an internet forum ) was only in terms of how much of a direct impact the NH primary will have on the election. How Obama should move forward is a completely different story and you're right to factor in the challenge of Clinton's new-found and powerful momentum. As for the NV caucus, again I was strictly speaking in terms of direct impact. I'd hope that Obama's campaign wouldn't be stupid enough to count on the caucus system to save them. All I meant is simply that that's one state coming up where he has something to help him out. As for ignoring Michigan and Florida, he doesn't have a choice. The DNC has said that any candidate who campaigns there will not be allowed to receive delegates. All Obama can do is move on to Nevada and hope that the news coming out of there has an impact on Michigan.

Anyway, I feel like I'm coming off as an Obama supporter here when, in fact, I'm undecided among the main candidates, so I just wanted to throw that out there

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Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Ustwo

Ummmm yea, the context is just SO similar, and while you are trolling, you will note I didn't criticize Clinton for crying.

We just pick the pretty ones out of the line of homeless people dying from a lack of health care in the shanty town.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

samcol

If you care here is a list showing the difference between machine voting precincts and hand count precints. The big winners were Romney getting a massive 7% higher on the machines and Hillary getting a 6% percent swing higher on machines than Obama. Interesting considering Obama had a 6% lead on Hillary going into the New hampshire primary.

Machine vs Hand voting

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It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize.

Ustwo

There is no more fun a conspiracy than a implied conspiracy.

Hilarious web site though...

You can dance if you want to....

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Willravel

HAHAHAHAHAHA New Hampshire republicans are complete idiots. I'll bet they were the people who went out to see Good Luck Chuck twice because they liked the story.

The Dems are idiots, too, but I can understand that their love of Bill runs so deep that they got confused with nostalgia when they saw the name on the ballot.

Ustwo

McCain is the only republican with ANY potential to be elected that I can tell. I don't see how anything they did makes them an idiots.

Likewise Hilary is the only non-far left or disgusting slime ball who should be in prison if there was any justice (Edwards) on the democrat side.

I still wouldn't be surprised if neither get the nomination, but I don't see anything idiotic.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Willravel

He's got $2 in the bank, his staff has been quitting since the get go, and his "flip flops" make John McCain look solid as a rock. Not only that, but his "I'm a Washington outsider" rhetoric stand in stark opposition to his 25 years in Washington. Completely and totally idiotic. Just do a search of host's posts that include McCain.

BTW, is anyone else kinda chuckling at the fact that Ron Paul's incredible online presence is meaningless in the primaries? I know some may think it's because of cheating, but there's no precedence for such an eCampaign, so there's no way to be sure.

Hilary is a Republican who happened to have thought that people should get health care. She was a mad fence walker in NY and supported the war. Hmm... fence walker.... supported the war... sounds like a republican to me.

http://drunkardslamppost.wordpress.c...new-hampshire/

Interesting story. Can we please have paper ballots again?

Ustwo

I suppose then that Bill Clinton was a republican too.

You know will, when you look at the world from the extreme, you kinda forget that there is in fact a middle.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Rekna

I think the media had a large impact on this. They declared Obama the hands down winner a day ahead of time that the independents decided he didn't need their help and went and voted for Mc'Cain. That hurt him a bunch.

samcol

It never ceases to amaze me how much negativity there is toward's the Paul grassroots effort. His online presence is meaningless in the primaries? What do you think got his campaign off the ground to 10% or whatever in iowa and 7% in New hampshire instead of a 0-2% percent showing like a Tancredo, Hunter, Kucinich or Gravel? They said he couldn't transform a huge online presence into real votes over and over again, but that's exactly what has happened.

Actually, there are some fishy things going on. In a county where hundreds of votes were cast Ron Paul got 0. Statistically that doesn't add up but Bev Harris of blackboxvoting.org found out that indead 31 votes were cast for him.

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It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize.

dc_dux

I dont see anything idiotic in the NH vote.

Independents who voted Republican put McCain over the top.

Women, whose support Clinton did not have in Iowa, recognized that she has the most experience and best record on issues that generally are most important to them - children and family issues and pocketbook issues - and voted for her in NH in far larger numbers than Iowa.

And the vote for the bottom dwellers on both ends, Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich, reinforces general thinking that the overwhelming percentage of voters in neither party nor independents support the extremist candidates....nothing idiotic about that.

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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

Ustwo

Sam has a point, if it weren't for the online stuff he wouldn't even be a blip on the radar.

What it does mean though is that online polls mean even less than the 'real' ones when it comes to predicting elections.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

Willravel

Until we bomb Diebold, there will always be stolen votes. As I linked above, Hilary was essentially given the win in NH, stolen from Obama (who may end up being the Gore of this election). I'm sure votes were stolen from Paul. Not enough to win, though.

ShaniFaye

I have to agree with this, and every person that I've had a conversation with today IRL was disgusted about the "women that changed their minds because Hilary showed emotion"

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I want the diabetic plan that comes with rollover carbs. I dont like the unused one expiring at midnite!!

dc_dux

sam...Much can be learned from Ron Paul's internet-based constituency, but two important lessons are still ignored by the Paul followers.

A successful campaign must have a strong central organization and manage the message of the campaign, not let it be controlled by a vocal group of outsiders. Paul just rode the wave created by his internet followers and never built proper and credible state-based organizations.

And, the candidate's message must resonate with the rest of the party voters and Paul's message never did, which is no surprise to most objective observers.

But if you're happy with two fifth place finishes, then I guess you can consider the Paul candidacy to be successful.

will....your "stolen vote" charge and dismissal of the NH voters as idiots, many of whom did not make up their mind until the last day, is beneath you.

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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

samcol

No, they won't steal enough to cheat him from first, but that wasn't realistic. I'm not implying that he was supposed to win. The optimistic goal was 3rd really, it's possible he got cheated out of enough to beat Giuliani which definetly would of helped his campaign.

Regardless its important to keep an eye on voting fraud.

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It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize.

Willravel

Hillary was only given 5%. That still means that over a third of people voted for her. As for making up their mind on the last day: that's proof that they're idiots. It suggest that they maybe, MAYBE did some research on one day on who they want to represent them for the next 4 years. It's a joke.

I hope you know that of all the republicans, I'd absolutely love to see Paul get the nomination. And yes, it pisses me off that there are reports of votes being stolen from him. I just wanted to try and put it in perspective. We simply can't have president McCain a possibility.

dc_dux

will and sam...regarding voter fraud, I'll repeat what I said about Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004.

I think the country should be far more concerned about voter suppression than voter fraud.

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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

Ustwo

And now the truth comes out, you are afraid of McCain getting the nomination

I don't blame you, hes the only republican with a prayer and moderate supporters.

The NH voters are not idiots, they scared you.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

dc_dux

What proof? Perhaps they were serious voters who did their research and homework and were torn between two candidates and made their final decision on the last day. Why not take all the time you have to make a decision if you are uncertain? That hardly makes them idiots.

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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

Willravel

My mistake. I was using voter fraud as a blanket term meaning all the garbage that's being done to votes. Is there a blanket term?

Ustwo: idiots that vote scare me.

dc_dux

FYI....there was a bill introduced earlier this year to require "an individual, durable, voter-verified paper record" for electronic voting.

"Ballot Integrity Act of 2007"

Its no surprise to me it only had Democratic sponsors and support (including Clinton and Obama). It got as far as a committee vote in the House, but has stalled in committee in the Senate.

This is a bill the American people should demand.

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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire

host

What would it take for you to see "anything idiotic"?
McCain: Americans Fine With Troops In Iraq For 10,000 Years :

Willravel

TY, host.

Ustwo

host buddy, if you didn't absolutely hate, despise, and think the person I'd support was guilty of crimes against the people I'd know I made the wrong choice.

Some people in this country are not waiting for the next revolution, and are pretty happy over all with life even if not everything in the world at large is to their liking.

You radicals see the countries rejection of Bush to be your golden opportunity to get someone far more left into office than would normally be electable. Not on their policies but out of a dislike for republicans currently. You are right this is your best chance as on the issues you wouldn't have a prayer.

Moderates like Hilary must be trashed so that the path is clear for the more 'true' left wing.

McCain is your nightmare republican for this election. Hes open, hes viewed as moderate, he is a former POW and the public still knows its a dangerous situation in the mideast.

I'm not a McCain fan myself, I think hes a camera whore, but right now he is your worst nightmare as the republican nomination.

__________________
Agents of the enemies who hold office in our own government, who attempt to eliminate our "freedoms" and our "right to know" are posting among us, I fear.....on this very forum. - host

Obama - Know a Man by the friends he keeps.

flstf

You have to admire the Clinton political machine, they are not stupid. Hillary showed just the right amount of "poor me I'm so distraught" emotion that NH voters gave her a group hug.

The Republicans have to be looking at this as positive for them. I don't think it is a secret that they want to run against Hillary in the general. An Obama "JFK like" steamroller would be very difficult for them stop. Their best chance is if Hillary does it for them.

MuadDib

Gotta agree. A good number of Americans don't make up their minds until the last and this doesn't make them idiots. I might even argue that it's more idiotic to become so entrenched in a candidates camp that a voter won't consider changing their mind and thinks people who keep their minds open about multiple candidates are idiots.

This is really the basis of the intra-party Hillary hate as well. While the most vocal party members, in either party, detest moderate candidates they will win much more often because we live in a diverse enough country were no single extreme point of view is wide-spread enough to dominate.

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"The courts that first rode the warhorse of virtual representation into battle on the res judicata front invested their steed with near-magical properties." ~27 F.3d 751

host

I'm sleeping like a baby, Ustwo....
Tick....tick....tick....tick.....tick:

Willravel

You're a radical too, just of a different flavor.