Facebook Poll versus ABC News Poll - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Sensei · 12-17-2007, 11:26 PM

Facebook Supporters* ABC News Poll**

Democrats:
Barack Obama 57.47% 23%
Hillary Clinton 18.74% 53%
John Edwards 8.65% 10%
Dennis Kucinich 6.12% 2%
Joe Biden 2.98% 3%
Bill Richardson 2.72% 3%
Mike Gravel 2.52% NA
Chris Dodd 0.79% NA

Republicans:
Ron Paul 33.64% 3%
Mitt Romney 16.93% 17%
Fred Thompson 14.08% 14%
Mike Huckabee 12.58% 19%
John McCain 11.24% 12%
Rudy Giuliani 9.57% 25%
Thomas Tancredo 1.00% NA
Duncan Hunter 0.96% 2%

I'm sure this has been covered but I'm quite surprised about the big differences between Facebook users and the "general voting population" (I don't know how ABC selected its sample). Some simple observations include:

1) Facebook users are generally more educated than the population at large
2) Facebook users are more web-inclined (duh)
3) Facebook users are younger

Giuliani is taking an especially harsh beating on Facebook. (Maybe that's because his daughter is on there.)

Personally I would lean towards Obama and McCain.

Baraka_Guru · 12-18-2007, 04:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sensei

3) Facebook users are younger

Interesting to see the differences in the polling. I wonder how much of this is to do with sample size and other factors. The one thing I'll point out, though, is that there are more older users on Facebook these days. The 25+ crowd is the fastest growing segment on the system. The age distribution is more even than you might think. How does this affect your view of the data?

samcol · 12-18-2007, 10:55 AM

Interesting. I believe the Facebook to be more accurate. It's funny how you look at the people who scored higher on the abc poll than the facebook poll it's the usual media establishment hacks, Giuliani, and Clinton. The media decided long ago it's going to be Giuliani vs. Clinton and all their news reporting has given them favorable time compared to other candidates.

On the other hand candidates like Obama, Kucinich and Paul gain significantly on the facebook poll.

I think we are starting to see a shift away from the old land-line polling technology. Perhaps like when phones were first used to do polls and they were very innacurate because only a certain demographic owned phones.

Every other major indicator shows similar results (straw polls, money raised, meetup groups, online polls, overall online buzz, caucuses), however the old phone polling shows things significantly different.

dc_dux · 12-18-2007, 11:02 AM

Another SLOP survey:

Quote:

A good poll story begins with a good poll. At the heart of a good poll is a randomly selected representative sample of the target population. Unfortunately, bad polls and bad samples are everywhere, and stories based on those flawed polls find their way on air or into print with dismaying frequency. One reason is that it’s hard and sometimes prohibitively expensive to collect a random or representative sample. Instead, some researchers use convenience samples.

One common type of convenience sample produces surveys that researchers call self-selected opinion polls, or SLOP surveys. As the name suggests, the sample in a SLOP survey is not selected randomly. Instead, individuals choose whether to participate. Margin of sampling error cannot be estimated for a SLOP poll, no matter how large...

...Researchers have learned, often to their great embarrassment, that these types of samples often produce flawed results. Respondents who volunteer to participate in such surveys tend to be more extreme or otherwise very different in their views than those who do not. In no way can they be said to be representative of the population, so the survey results cannot be used to say anything useful about a target population.
http://www.aapor.org/badandworsesamples

You do realize that more than half of facebook members are not even US voters.

samcol · 12-18-2007, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

Another SLOP survey:

You do realize that more than half of facebook members are not even US voters.

Facebook wasn't the only example I was refering to though. All the major indicators tell a different story than the standard land line polls. Facebook happens to be simliar to these other indicators.

You do realize cell phones are quickly phasing out land-lines totally. 2007 will be the first year people spent more on cell phones than standard phones, and cell phones out number standard phone lines significantly. Granted some of these are corporate phones but the trend is significant I believe.

Is there a chance this is throwing polls off?

Quote:

2007 First Year Americans Spent More On Cell Phones

With more Americans ditching their landlines, 2007 is on pace to be the first year in which U.S. households spend more on cell phone services, according to industry and government officials.

Recent government data found that households spend $524, on average, on cell phone bills in 2006, compared with $542 for residential landline services. People are most likely spending more on their cell phone bills, telecom industry analysts say.

"What we're finding is there's a huge move of people giving up their landline service altogether and using cell phones exclusively," Allyn Hall, consumer research director for market research firm In-Stat told the AP.

The growth of wireless networks has made cell phones more convenient, and a variety of services, including text messaging, video and music has made it simple for people to spend money on their cell phone. "Frankly, I'd be shocked if (households) don't spend more on cell phones at this point," said Andrew Arthur, vice president of market solutions at Mediamark Research & Intelligence.

When corporate cell phone use is included, overall U.S. spending surpassed landline spending a number of years ago, analysts say. There are about 170 million landlines in use around the country, industry officials project there are almost 250 million cell phones.

Eric Rabe, senior vice president for media relations at Verizon Communications, said the company's wireless revenue has grown 15 to 20 percent annually over the last five years. Its landline business has been stagnant year to year, because more than 90 percent of U.S. households have one.

"As a company that once made the vast, vast majority of its revenue on phone calls, for 10 years we've been moving away from that and trying to re-establish ourselves in other businesses because we could see the traditional telephone was a mature business, it was not going to grow and indeed might even shrink," he said.

dc_dux · 12-18-2007, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by samcol

Facebook wasn't the only example I was refering to though. All the major indicators tell a different story than the standard land line polls. Facebook happens to be simliar to these other indicators.

You do realize cell phones are quickly phasing out land-lines totally. 2007 will be the first year people spent more on cell phones than standard phones, and cell phones out number standard phone lines significantly. Granted some of these are corporate phones but the trend is significant I believe.

samcol.....you still dont understand or accept the need for statistical validity and representative samples for any poll to have meaning.

BTW, some of the larger national polls now include cell phones and others are moving to keep up with that changing demographic as well...and they all rely on commonly accepted polling protocols and factor in the potential missing cell phone voters in their determinations ....unlike any internet poll.

If money and internet polls were "major indicators", dont you think Romney, Guilinni, Thompson would be attacking Ron Paul instead of Mike Hucakbee?
***

Quote:

Is there a chance that this is throwing polls off?

Far, far, far less than the fact, for example, that the largest voting block in the country, those over 50, are vastly underrepresented on the Internet. (Is your mother a facebook member? Does your father go any online poll and "click" ....or participate in text message polls?)

12-17-2007, 11:26 PM	#1 (permalink)
Sensei Black Belt in Slacking Off Location: Portland Or-ah-gun	Facebook Poll versus ABC News Poll Facebook Supporters* ABC News Poll** Democrats: Barack Obama 57.47% 23% Hillary Clinton 18.74% 53% John Edwards 8.65% 10% Dennis Kucinich 6.12% 2% Joe Biden 2.98% 3% Bill Richardson 2.72% 3% Mike Gravel 2.52% NA Chris Dodd 0.79% NA Republicans: Ron Paul 33.64% 3% Mitt Romney 16.93% 17% Fred Thompson 14.08% 14% Mike Huckabee 12.58% 19% John McCain 11.24% 12% Rudy Giuliani 9.57% 25% Thomas Tancredo 1.00% NA Duncan Hunter 0.96% 2% I'm sure this has been covered but I'm quite surprised about the big differences between Facebook users and the "general voting population" (I don't know how ABC selected its sample). Some simple observations include: 1) Facebook users are generally more educated than the population at large 2) Facebook users are more web-inclined (duh) 3) Facebook users are younger Giuliani is taking an especially harsh beating on Facebook. (Maybe that's because his daughter is on there.) Personally I would lean towards Obama and McCain. __________________ Slacking off with style since 1981. Last edited by Sensei; 12-18-2007 at 03:54 PM..

12-18-2007, 10:55 AM	#3 (permalink)
samcol Junkie Location: Indiana	Interesting. I believe the Facebook to be more accurate. It's funny how you look at the people who scored higher on the abc poll than the facebook poll it's the usual media establishment hacks, Giuliani, and Clinton. The media decided long ago it's going to be Giuliani vs. Clinton and all their news reporting has given them favorable time compared to other candidates. On the other hand candidates like Obama, Kucinich and Paul gain significantly on the facebook poll. I think we are starting to see a shift away from the old land-line polling technology. Perhaps like when phones were first used to do polls and they were very innacurate because only a certain demographic owned phones. Every other major indicator shows similar results (straw polls, money raised, meetup groups, online polls, overall online buzz, caucuses), however the old phone polling shows things significantly different. __________________ It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize.