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Old 11-17-2006, 12:19 PM   #1 (permalink)
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PS3 Economics

Today was the launch of Sony's PlayStation 3. It's retailing for $600.00. What I don't understand is why Sony has fixed the price at $600.

Demand far exceeds supply. Only 400,000 units are available between now and Christmas. It is near impossible to get one. There were 500 people lined up outside Circuit City in Tallahassee last night to receive one of six raffle tickets that would allow them to purchase on of the 6 units Circuit City received (they received 10, but employees already purchased 4).

The game console is selling for over $3,000 on eBay.

I would say at least 90% of the people in line last night only wanted the system at $600 so they could sell it for $3,000 today. But that begs the question, why doesn't Sony just set the retail price for the first 400,000 units at $3,000? That’s what the market is dictating. Is it a public image issue? Does it have more to do with marketing and PR than it does strictly economics? Do they not want to seem like they are 'gouging' the public?

We hear over and over that companies lose money on the consoles only to try and make money on the games. Well, they wouldn't lose money if they priced the systems at what the market demands. If the 400,000 units were priced at $1,200 they would still sell out today. Priced at $2,000 I'm sure they would sell out by Christmas.

An accurate pricing would remove the gray market, scalpers, and eBay resellers. While eBay allows for anyone willing to buy the PS3 before Christmas at $2,800-$3,400 (the range I've observed), Sony is losing out on a lot of profits.

Can anyone offer any reason as to why the experts would set the price at $600?
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:23 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Somehow I doubt that they could sell 400,000 PS3's for $1200 each, but maybe..
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:26 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I don't know, maybe they didn't want the bad publicity that would go with gouging their customers? Maybe they feel that $600 is a fair price for the product. It's about putting your most loyal customers above the assholes with so much moey they can pay whatever price it is.

Products should sell for a fair price. Period. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:29 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carno
Somehow I doubt that they could sell 400,000 PS3's for $1200 each, but maybe..
They've already sold 400,000 for $600 each. In a matter of minutes after midnight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kutulu
I don't know, maybe they didn't want the bad publicity that would go with gouging their customers? Maybe they feel that $600 is a fair price for the product. It's about putting your most loyal customers above the assholes with so much moey they can pay whatever price it is.

Products should sell for a fair price. Period. Somewhere along the line we forgot that.
What is a fair price? Who determines what is fair? When there is a limited supply and an extreme demand who determines who gets what?

I would also add, that if I were CEO of Sony, my most loyal customers would be the ones with the most money. period. Who gives a shit about a customer without a dime? Doesn't make for a good customer, now, does it?
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Last edited by stevo; 11-17-2006 at 12:32 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:35 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Most technology is priced based on perceived value vs. the competition. Flagrant opportunism doesn't build loyalty which is critical to platform success.

Premiums for product scarcity will always be added by the fly-by-nighters to addicted consumers, but that's not something a large company wants to be seen promoting or even drawing attention to. They need to build the base, not get a quick fix. Think about cheap crack.

Consider the difference in news coverage if Sony started at $3k, micro-managing it exactly to demand. Instead of reports about flocks of fans lining up for days you'd see a very different and and unflattering picture revolving around the price and Sony's ethics. The excitement would evaporate.
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:40 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyrnel
Most technology is priced based on perceived value vs. the competition. Flagrant opportunism doesn't build loyalty which is critical to platform success.
Bingo. Sony has already burned (in some cases literally!) a lot of customer loyalty over the last year or two. Opening the PS3 price at what could be perceived as a gouging price wouldn't be smart PR. They probably could sell through their 400k units at $3k apiece, but consumers wouldn't be happy with them.

Besides--if they retailed for $3000, wouldn't that just up the price in the secondary market to match?
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:45 PM   #7 (permalink)
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The machine was already overpriced. People have been talking about how crazy it was to pay $600 for a machine when they got the 360 for what.. $300+? By raising the price to $1,200 Sony would have to wait for a return on their production costs and would lose market shares daily to microshit and nintendo. Sony put just enough cost on it to where they would sell out and stay afloat in the market while maintaining demand.
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:46 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyrnel
Most technology is priced based on perceived value vs. the competition. Flagrant opportunism doesn't build loyalty which is critical to platform success.

Premiums for product scarcity will always be added by the fly-by-nighters to addicted consumers, but that's not something a large company wants to be seen promoting or even drawing attention to. They need to build the base, not get a quick fix. Think about cheap crack.

Consider the difference in news coverage if Sony started at $3k, micro-managing it exactly to demand. Instead of reports about flocks of fans lining up for days you'd see a very different and and unflattering picture revolving around the price and Sony's ethics. The excitement would evaporate.
That's got to be it. You're right about building the positive coverage. Everyone sees lines of people wanting one, no one is complaining about the price. If they did mark them at $3,000, sure they'd sell, but most people who can't afford them would be pissed. Economics be damned!
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:47 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Wasn't also most of the purchases with bundles so the total out the door cost was closer to $800?
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Old 11-17-2006, 12:47 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ratbastid
Besides--if they retailed for $3000, wouldn't that just up the price in the secondary market to match?
Que? are you saying if they retailed at $3,000 they would sell on ebay for more?
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Old 11-17-2006, 01:53 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Winning bid @ $5,100.00

http://cgi.ebay.com/Playstation-3-60...QQcmdZViewItem
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Old 11-17-2006, 02:46 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miss Mango
wow. for a 20gb system. And the demand isn't there (sarcasm). They could have priced them at $2,000 and sold out today.
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Old 11-17-2006, 03:15 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo
Que? are you saying if they retailed at $3,000 they would sell on ebay for more?
I've got to think so, yeah. That is, if $3000 became the "fair" price for it (or, god forbid, $5100) then there'd be some subset of the gamer lunatic demographic who would be willing to go two or three times that on eBay.
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Old 11-17-2006, 08:02 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo
What is a fair price? Who determines what is fair? When there is a limited supply and an extreme demand who determines who gets what?
I'm not going to play that game with you. I highly doubt you are so stupid that you cannot understand the concept of a fair profit.
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Old 11-17-2006, 11:26 PM   #15 (permalink)
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this seemed semi-relevent: http://vgcats.com/comics/images/061012.jpg
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Old 11-18-2006, 08:54 AM   #16 (permalink)
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I imagine that people at Sony did a HUGE study into how much they should sell their PS3's for, looking at demand and what would turn them the best profit. There was a big article in Wired a few months back about how Sony is on the verge of going belly-up unless the PS3 just knocks everything else the hell out of the water. I suppose we'll know over the coming weeks if that $600 was worth it or not.
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Old 11-18-2006, 09:11 AM   #17 (permalink)
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But if you figure people ARE paying $3000+ on eBay for the system, and presumeably they are happy about the purchase, why would they be UNhappy paying that price at BestBuy or Wal Mart? Money spent is money spent, I doubt that if you have resigned yourself to pay such insane prices for a game platform, do you care who gets it?

Honestly I think it would be better for Sony to have the profits for themselves instead of Joe Shmo Linesquatter.

But the reality is that the PR for Sony would be really bad if they priced the units that high. I dunno, I have no plans to buy one, but it will be interesting to see what happens between now and Christmas.
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Old 11-19-2006, 06:10 PM   #18 (permalink)
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What this thread is missing is the quite obvious fact that the people who pay $3,000 on eBay for an PS3 are a huge minority. It's not like everyone who didn't get one is willing to pay $3k for a PS3. It's just a few rich parents who want to satisfy their kids. Nothing more, nothing less. Stating that Sony could raise their price to $3,000 and see the same sales is absurd. The actions of 1% of the buyers market is not the same as the rest.

Hell, most of the people in line to get a PS3 aren't even there to sell it on eBay. They're waiting in line because they want to be the first to obtain and experience the new generation of consoles which is always a big deal.
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Old 11-19-2006, 06:42 PM   #19 (permalink)
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I agree that most of the initial buyers that waited in line to buy a ps3 were excited to own the next gen console and planed to keep and play it. I also think that it is a minority of people that are willing to pay 3k for the new system. to think Sony could permanently market it for that price or even half of that is rather absurd. I for one would love to have one but cant afford it now. I feel $600 is way over priced for the unit. I mean come on, how much dose it cost to manufacture the thing?
Oh well, the only game I have any interest in playing on it Gran Turismo HD is still being developed so I have some time to come up with the money to get one.
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Old 11-19-2006, 06:57 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I'm not very hip to the ins and outs of econ, but is Sony trying to mega create a future market demand for this product by only offering such a small number of units at the most opportune time? If they create this overwhelming demand, aided by the PR value of news reports of people camping out to even get a chance at getting one, will the PS3 actually make enough profit for them to emerge from the economic doldrums they are in? I mean, how much does Sony need to get from this product in order to break even, much less make a decent, company saving profit - does anyone know?

(flashes in my memory of Cabbage Patch Dolls, Tickle me Elmos, etc....)

Ah, the consumer bug bites us in the butt here in the US, does it not?
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Old 11-20-2006, 12:56 AM   #21 (permalink)
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deleted. I don't think I had anything useful to say.
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Old 11-20-2006, 06:33 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Intense1
Im not very hip to the ins and outs of econ, but is Sony trying to mega create a future market demand for this product by only offering such a small number of units at the most opportune time? If they create this overwhelming demand, aided by the PR value of news reports of people camping out to even get a chance at getting one, will the PS3 actually make enough profit for them to emerge from the economic doldrums they are in? I mean, how much does Sony need to get from this product in order to break even, much less make a decent, company saving profit - does anyone know?

(flashes in my memory of Cabbage Patch Dolls, Tickle me Elmos, etc....)

Ah, the consumer bug bites us in the butt here in the US, does it not?
Theyre selling the console at a loss so they need to get as many out there as possible and get people buying games. Games are where they make their real money. My understanding is that they are getting so few out due to manufacturing problems and with Wii coming out and Xbox360 out for a year they simply couldnt afford to wait any longer.

My opinion.
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Old 11-20-2006, 07:16 AM   #23 (permalink)
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So a quick search for "PS3 console" on Ebay returned roughly 4000 hits. (I did not filter for listings already sold, or were not actually the console itself) So roughly 1% of the 400,000 PS3's are on Ebay. Even taking into account things such as PS3's being auctioned off/sold else where and PS3's already sold, I find it hard to imagine that it all adds up to more than 5%.

From the ebay search results, I am more inclinded to think that most of the PS3's bought were for personal use and not to resell for profit. I would think that having an initial sales price of $2k would have A) had the gaming world laughing at them. B) Would have created huge ammounts of negative publicity and C) Would have resulted in lower sales.... remember 100% sold at $600, but right now (from the ebay search) less than 1% are selling for $2k.

edit: $2k figure is the highest bids I am seeing for the auctions that are the closest to ending. Though oddly, auctions with DAYS left before ending have prices upwards of $10k. (I'm not an ebay pro or anything, so I figure the auctions ending NOW have a more realistic price, someone feel free to correct if I am wrong on this.)

Last edited by blade02; 11-20-2006 at 07:21 AM..
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Old 11-20-2006, 10:56 AM   #24 (permalink)
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http://cbs2.com/topstories/local_story_324085857.html

Quote:
Playstation 3 Seller Attacked, Robbed In La Palma
(CBS) LA PALMA, Calif. Two men who had agreed to buy two PlayStation 3 consoles from a third man attacked the seller at a La Palma McDonald’s restaurant early Monday morning.

The victim -- a man in his 20s whose name was not released -- was assaulted with pepper spray and robbed of the coveted consoles.

The seller met the two men around 1 a.m. at a McDonald’s restaurant on Moody Street and Orangethorpe Avenue, according to Sgt. Terry Kim of the La Palma Police Department.

One man sprayed the victim with pepper spray, then the pair fled on foot with the PS3 consoles, Kim said.

The victim was treated by paramedics at the scene, he said.

The suspects are described as men in their 20s.

The victim said that he had advertised the consoles on Craigslist.com, and was trying to sell both items for $5,000. PS3s retail for $500 or $600 per unit.
(this is my emphasis, but it seems relevant...
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Old 11-20-2006, 01:51 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Old 11-20-2006, 02:04 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Personally I am just amazed by the stupidity of the rich sometimes. I personally think it is Assnine to pay such rediculous prices for a freaking GAME CONSOLE! Sounds to me like having more money than sense!
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Old 11-20-2006, 04:15 PM   #27 (permalink)
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I'm sorry... but a friend of mine got one... and is intending on keeping it... and I nearly cremed my pants when he let me touch it. And it really is as good as the price dictates. I think the PS3 was going for 600 because the X Box 360 lowered its price to 100 to hopefully gain some sales.
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Old 11-20-2006, 09:56 PM   #28 (permalink)
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I think that their pricing should be flexible as well. Unless scalpers and eBayers bought out all of them, and sold them for more than they paid, the system would keep them afraid at buying at the top. If you had an auction at each Best Buy, Circuit City, CompUSA, GameStop, etc... One person could only bid up so high and get one system. How do they know that paying $3000 at their local Best Buy action would net them $4000 on eBay next week? The crazy parents that 'need' this system to make their kids happy would be able to give the $2000-$3000 to Sony and the big box store(or Sony could put a few on eBay each day). The people looking to make a (tax free) fast buck wouldn't risk paying a lot of money and not being able to sell it at a higher price, especially if Sony had staggered the release (every Friday some more PS3's came in).

Sony could then use that money to reduce the cost of the games $10 or $20 to sell more games and make the console more popular.

I went to the U of M vs OSU football game, and the ticket scalper market works the same way. OSU sells all of the tickets at a set price, and then the scalpers find the true price people are willing to pay. If OSU had sold a lot of tickets in their own eBay type auction, they could have offered a lot of financial aid and scholarships to the current students.
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Old 11-21-2006, 04:22 AM   #29 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by streak_56
I think the PS3 was going for 600 because the X Box 360 lowered its price to 100 to hopefully gain some sales.

??? It's not 100 bucks....?


Amazon.com is having a short Denial of Service Attack sorry, ahem sale this Thursday for the Core system to be 100 dollars, but other than that, it's still 299.99 and 399.99, respectively.
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Old 11-21-2006, 05:24 AM   #30 (permalink)
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http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...38642038&hl=en

this just solidifies my desire for a Wii
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Old 11-21-2006, 06:49 AM   #31 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo
Demand far exceeds supply. ...

Can anyone offer any reason as to why the experts would set the price at $600?

So the other question that must be asked is:
If they kept the price low (this is not really low it is just relative) at $600, and they knew that they could probably get much more for it, then why did they not produce more to satisfy the demand.

I think, as mentioned by someone earlier, it is all about perception.
Pricing it at $600 and holding back on (or not providing enhough) supply.
serves Sony's purpose.

They (artificially) did the following
- They got people to buy it for $600
- They caused the value of the PS3 to be about $3000 without having to actually look like they are gauging the product. 12 year old: if people are paying $3000 for it, it must be awesome. I have to get one.
- They caused people to want it. People want what is scarce.
- The got tons of free publicity
- They bought some time to come up with some more. becuase of all this people will wait a little longer than they would have instead of right away buying a 360 or Wii.

Without anybody actualy playing it, prior to selling it in the stores, they got people to want it and want it real bad.

Now all they need to do is come through with more supply in time to fully benefit from the demand they created.

I think they did a pretty good job.




Quote:
Originally Posted by guccilvr
*MNSFW*

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...38642038&hl=en

this just solidifies my desire for a Wii
That video is awesome.


Have you seen this one?
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...37310048&hl=en
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Last edited by Sticky; 11-21-2006 at 06:54 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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Old 11-22-2006, 01:30 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Funny film.
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Old 11-25-2006, 03:23 AM   #33 (permalink)
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$600 for a PS3 is a bargain, considering that you're getting a Blu Ray DVD player with it. Standalone Blu Ray players are currently retailing for about a thousand dollars.

We got a Wii and skipped the others. Pure Nintendo fun and it's the only one I can actually use anyway.
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Old 11-25-2006, 03:42 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Yes but you must ask yourself, how much is a blu ray player worth for me? As for myself, I'm perfectly happy sticking around with DVD. So no thanks.
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Old 11-25-2006, 08:59 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo
Que? are you saying if they retailed at $3,000 they would sell on ebay for more?
Without a doubt. The price is always relative. It's not the actual price that matters but the perceived value based on the base price.

On another note, the 400,000 quantity - and don't kid yourself, with electronics they made money at $600 - they got an incredible amount of free publicity. This turned into at least a $40-60 million ad campaign. That added another $100 or more to the net bottom line price of the unit.

Great marketing, demand will still be there for some time and the games will just be gravy. It's all about the marketing.
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Old 11-25-2006, 09:27 AM   #36 (permalink)
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See this is what I truly don't get.... why people are so willing to spend so much on game systems that the companies make obsolete within 5 years and you have to pay another exorbitant price for the new one, not to mention restocking the whole video game library.

(if the company's were really smart they'd charge maybe a 10% profit on the system itself then hit the people with the price of the games themselves. Ah but the geniuses don't make the games .... pity.)

See my PC gets the graphics I need, if a game needs something I can upgrade my video card a lot cheaper than if I have to buy a new system, and as long as the game uses XP (which I don't see any jumping yet) I'm good to go.

I don't need games so realistic that I lose touch with reality.

There are people teaching their kids to kill us, to hate us and using our ignorances and greed against us......

What are we teaching our youth? Stay inside, don't worry about imagination or being in shape and just vegetate for hours in front of your newest bestest top of the line game system.

No wonder our professional athletes suck and are so injury prone....

I appologize but this is just the height of greed and how truly out of touch with reality this country is. We've lost sight on what truly is important and what Christmas is truly about, love, generosity, goodwill toward men....etc

Worst supporters of this nihilistic, ego driven, selfish, hateful, commercialized season is? The Christians that claim to be so close to Jesus that "Only they will get to Heaven." It's ironic, hypocritical and sad.....

And Jesus said unto them, "You must go out in the season you celebrate my birthday and buy, buy, buy. Pay more for those game systems than you do for your children's schooling. Let those systems be your baby sitter. Worship the dollar and all that it brings..... and forget what the fuck I preached about...it doesn't matter, you "read" the Bible, you profess to believe in me, you'll go to Heaven.... You don't need to live with the ideas I taught in your heart, when you would rather enjoy a love of money and all that it can bring you here."
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Old 11-26-2006, 05:46 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Slate had two article on this phenomenon a year ago. They were very interesting because the first one essentialy admited that economists were stumped, and couldn't explain why console makers underprice their products by hundreds or even thousands of dollars. The second article gives some more convincing explinations, but not a lot better. Here they are, sorry for the length:

http://www.slate.com/id/2132071/

Quote:
The Great Xbox Shortage of 2005
Why you can't buy the one present you really need.
By Tim Harford
Posted Thursday, Dec. 15, 2005, at 6:09 PM ET

Gaming enthusiasts camp outside electronics stores, desperate to buy the hot new game console. Corporate flacks are deployed to fend off PR calamity: "Consumer demand for the new console has exceeded our expectations, and we are doing all we can to fulfill the wish lists of people who want a new console under their tree this holiday season."

Video-gamers are clamoring for the new Xbox 360 console, but that statement didn't come from Microsoft: It came from Sony at the beginning of last year's buying frenzy for the new slim-line PlayStation 2. In 1996, parents wrestled to get hold of a Tickle Me Elmo. 1988 saw parental panic sparked by shortages of Nintendo game cartridges. And we're now celebrating the 20th anniversary of the Cabbage Patch Kid craze: They sold $600 million of those things in 1985, and that was in the days when $600 million was worth something.

These spectacular sellouts have become as much of a holiday staple as turkey and stuffing. And, of course, they have inspired conspiracy theories. Isn't it a little odd that the same story comes round year after year? Is Microsoft really running short of consoles? Yet, for economists, the Xbox 360 crisis is more alarming than a conspiracy, because these supply shortages make no economic sense whatsoever. Despite their suspicious regularity, the shortages benefit nobody.

It isn't the scarcity of supply itself that is puzzling. That is almost inevitable for some of these seasonal toys. In any given year, many toys will be unloved and oversupplied, but a few lucky ones will be in unexpectedly high demand. We shouldn't be surprised any more than we're surprised that the champion of a knockout tennis tournament won all his matches. Somebody had to.

In Microsoft's case, the Xbox 360 can be produced only gradually, but all the demand is there at once. Plentiful supply would be possible only if Microsoft made millions of consoles in advance and stored them without releasing them, or if it built vast production lines that only ran for a few weeks—both economically unwise strategies. It makes more sense to ship the consoles as they are made—and that means gradually. The steady supply can't match peak December demand.

So, supply shortages are a fact of life. The puzzle is somewhere else: Why don't companies raise prices when supply is short and demand is frenzied? Leaving aside oxygen and a few other essentials, there is no such thing as an absolute shortage of anything: There is only a shortage if the price is too low. At the moment, Microsoft is easily selling out the half-million or so Xbox 360 units (there's no official number) for prices starting at $300 for the basic package. Why doesn't Microsoft price them at $700 instead? That's the figure that the consoles are fetching on eBay. (Back in the days of the Cabbage Patch Kids, we could only speculate how much parents would have been willing to pay for guaranteed delivery. Thanks to eBay we can now put a price on customers' frustrations.)

Perhaps the sellouts are supposed to generate free publicity. By deliberately giving Xbox consoles away too cheaply today, Microsoft gets the column inches before Christmas, and that may boost demand and sell more in the long run. If you had put that theory to me last year I might have believed it, but after all the hot air over gasoline prices this fall, no longer. It's now obvious that you can get just as much publicity by raising prices as you can by selling out at low prices. But raising prices makes money, and creating lines of frustrated customers who can't get the product doesn't.

Maybe Microsoft is worried that this would be the wrong kind of publicity, because customers would dislike a price hike. That's possible, but the publicity is already bad: Many empty-handed customers seem convinced that Microsoft has a secret hangar in Roswell stuffed full of Xboxes that they've decided not to release just yet.

In any case, strange as it may seem, even if the consoles sold out at a higher price, the average Xbox aspirant wouldn't be any worse off: The increased price should be exactly balanced by the shorter lines, reduced aggravation, and greater chance of getting a console. Customers are infuriated by the shortage itself, whether that shortage is expressed in lines (as it is today) or in high prices (as it could be if Microsoft raised them). If Microsoft is going to aggravate its customers, why doesn't it at least make a buck out of it?

So, this is all something of a headache for the dismal science. Over dinner with a friendly local economics department, I challenged them to explain the puzzle of why prices stay low in the face of such shortages. They cited a number of ingenious explanations, all of them unlikely.

The economist Kenneth McLaughlin of City University, New York, has suggested that rock concerts deliberately underprice tickets because it means that a younger audience shows up—and teenagers, while they won't buy premium-price tickets, will buy merchandise and music. It's clever, but it's a stretch even for Rolling Stones concerts. (Every extra dollar on the ticket price is pure profit, after all—and how much merchandise do they really expect to sell?) For Xbox sales, it makes no sense at all to apply McLaughlin's theory, which would only work in the bizarro-world where the people willing to pay the most for the consoles were also the ones willing to spend the least on the games.

Barry Nalebuff and Adam Brandenburger, economists at, respectively, Yale School of Management and NYU's Stern School of Business, have argued that the scarcity of Nintendo game cartridges in 1988 was a deliberate attempt by the company to create a strong bargaining position in negotiations with retailers carrying the cartridges. (Retailers requested 110 million cartridges, and Nintendo produced 33 million.) Limiting supply is an age-old tactic for creating a bargaining position, of course, but the traditional thing to do with that bargaining position is to exploit it. What is the point of limiting supply if you don't raise the price?

Microsoft could certainly have made itself popular with favored retailers. If customers value the console at $700 but it retails at $300, then a retailer such as Best Buy will certainly thank Microsoft for any extra consoles, because they will attract customers into the store. Every $300 console saves a customer the extra $400 he would have had to spend on eBay to buy it (or allows that customer to buy for $300 something he can sell for $700). This is effectively a $400 handout to a few lucky customers, but Microsoft could achieve the same effect for the same price by having its representatives stand around in Best Buy handing out a limited number of $400 checks. Either way, Best Buy enjoys the crowds that result, but what has Microsoft gained?

A final explanation is that Microsoft is creating some kind of cachet by making the console scarce. But that doesn't work either because, again, it isn't the scarcity that's puzzling, it's the low price. Microsoft could create the same cachet by selling the same limited number of units at a higher price. In any case, it's not the Hope diamond, it's just a game console. How valuable can this so-called cachet be?

That leaves us with Napoleon's explanation: Never attribute to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetence. This view of the world is antithetical to economics, because the dismal scientists tend to be suspicious of people's motives but credit them with vast intelligence.

Perhaps readers will suggest better ideas for the Xbox 360 shortage than my economist colleagues and I have done, but something happened recently to convince me that Napoleon was right: My publisher managed to sell out its rather timid print run of my book, The Undercover Economist. There was no great scheme or publicity effort attached to my book, no cachet, no hard-talking negotiation to raise the price on Amazon. The publisher just misjudged demand, and unsurprisingly so, because life is full of uncertainty.

Microsoft has got it wrong, too, but they have missed out on a far more obvious opportunity. Why didn't they sell their initial supply of Xbox consoles, packaged as a "limited edition," using online auctions? All the while they would promise $300 consoles as soon as stocks were available. Since at an auction the price is set by the buyers, not the seller, Microsoft could have made a killing, absolutely guilt-free, and created no more annoyed, empty-handed customers than they have with their current strategy.
And the followup article:

http://www.slate.com/id/2132988/

Quote:
Xbox Economics, Part 2
More reasons Microsoft isn't charging enough for the season's hot game console.
By Tim Harford
Posted Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2005, at 1:24 PM ET

Last week I wrote that the shortage of Xbox 360 consoles seemed inexplicable, at least to me and my fellow economists. I invited readers to provide better explanations, and you did.

A reminder of the puzzle: Xbox 360s are the latest in a long line of Christmas products to suffer spectacular shortages. The shortage of supply isn't the puzzle; the low price is. Why doesn't Microsoft raise prices temporarily from the current floor of $300 for a basic console? Why doesn't the company auction them all on eBay, where consoles are currently reselling for $700 and up?

If I had a dollar for every e-mail I received on the subject, I'd be able to afford an Xbox myself. Most of the suggestions I received were wrong, but a few got me thinking, and they may get you thinking, too.

The stupidest explanation came up again and again: Microsoft is holding the price low in order to grab market share and make money on selling games. This is the "cheap razors and expensive razor blades" strategy. True, console manufacturers are widely thought to be losing money on the consoles and recouping the losses on the games. But only the most idiotic of my correspondents failed to see that one traditional part of grabbing market share is, um, producing enough consoles to supply the demand you've stoked with your low prices. If you have only 500,000 consoles, you can sell them cheaply, give them away, or even pay people to take them off your hands, but in the end there will still be only 500,000 consoles to buy games for.

Many people also claimed that the seasonal shortage creates free publicity to encourage sales later, but high prices don't create publicity. I still don't believe that: Exxon got plenty of publicity by raising gas prices after Hurricane Katrina. In any case, now, not later, is the Christmas season when people want to buy it.

One reader reminded me of the "hot IPO" phenomenon of underpricing to generate interest in new shares. Maybe Microsoft was trying something similar. But I counter that Google chose an IPO auction instead of an underpriced IPO and wasn't short of publicity.

This isn't to say that Microsoft couldn't use the buzz: The console business is very dependent on expectations. Gamers buy consoles if they expect great games. Games-publishers invest in great games if they expect the console will be popular. Confidence in a console—or lack of it—is self-fulfilling. So, yes, buzz is important. But lines aren't the only way to create a buzz: Microsoft could have secured plenty of publicity (and a lot more revenue) selling a "limited edition" at auction.

Why wouldn't Microsoft raise prices to take advantage of the seasonal demand? In my original article, I claimed that Microsoft would irritate customers equally by raising prices or by creating lines, and rightly so because the typical customer is inconvenienced either way.

But more thoughtful correspondents produced good reasons why Microsoft would steer clear of raising prices.

The first is that much of Microsoft's business is nearly monopolistic: The company has no powerful commercial rivals to its Windows software or its Office products. As a result, the company has often been targeted by regulators investigating alleged abuses of its dominant position. These businesses are huge relative to the Xbox 360. High console prices might raise government suspicions. Why take the risk of antagonizing the regulators for a relatively small financial gain?

The second reason Microsoft would avoid price hikes comes from David Friedman (whose modern classic Hidden Order will be much enjoyed by many readers). Friedman wrote to draw my attention to an essay in which he argues that there was once an evolutionary advantage for those stubborn people who insisted—contrary to what economists believe—that there is such a thing as a "just price." Imagine a person whose response to every price hike is outrage. In the one-on-one negotiations our ancestors engaged in, it's impossible to rip our man off, and most of the time he'll get his way and the price will stay low. Of course, every now and then, the price hike isn't an attempt at exploitation, but a genuine reflection of scarcity: Then the outrage means lining up in the cold for an Xbox rather than paying the price that would balance supply and demand.

A third suggestion is that Microsoft may want to raise the price, but can't. Microsoft has to agree to a retail price in advance with sellers, who in turn incorporate that price into their advertising material. It's too disruptive to change prices suddenly and for such a short period of time.

But the best idea of all is from my friend Alex Tabarrok, a professor at George Mason University who was one of those economists I originally stumped with the puzzle. Spurred on by this public humiliation, he has thought harder and he now claims to have the solution: Very few people really are willing to pay $700 for an Xbox. Contrary to what you might expect, long lines are perfectly consistent with customers who refuse to pay high prices. Imagine that the typical Xbox customer is willing to pay around $325 for a basic console but is extremely price sensitive. At $300, twice as many people want the console. At $350, hardly anybody wants it. Microsoft isn't sure exactly what the average gamer will pay and can't change the price quickly. If they priced just a little too high, all the customers would wait for Sony's next console. A little too low, and long lines form—a better result for Microsoft, but without sacrificing hundreds of dollars per console with the low prices.

Tabarrok's argument makes all the other arguments in this column more plausible: While Microsoft might not want to pass up an extra $400 per console for a few more game sales or some good publicity, if it's only $25 per console, then that's a good deal for the company.

What about those $700 consoles on eBay? If Tabarrok is right that the actual price is closer to $325, why haven't eBay prices collapsed? The answer may be that it is gamers who are acting irrationally. Very few people resell their consoles despite the high auction prices. Having grabbed a scarce console, gamers only think about using it rather than profiting from its resale. As a result, only a few consoles are up for sale and only the most desperate buyers compete for them. If more people put their consoles up for auction, the price would drop.

I leave the last and wisest word with my much-maligned publisher, whom I teased in my first article for not printing enough copies of my book. "I can't believe we didn't think of this before!" he writes. "We are raising the price of The Undercover Economist to $700."
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Old 11-26-2006, 06:02 PM   #38 (permalink)
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It's a question of class and access.

Yes, they probably could allow the market to entirely dictate the price. And then suddenly the PS3 would become a very different kind of product.

They don't want the PS3 to be a luxury good that is restricted to the wealthy. It is intended to be a mass consumer product and for that to work, the average person has to have access to it.

There are both practical and less practical reasons for this.

On the level of principle, it has to do with perceived fairness. You don't want to price the console out of the range of people who you perceive to be your target demographic. You don't want to make it an elite product. If the PS3 is really for everyone then it has to be priced that way.

More practically, the product has to permeate more of society than the top few percent, in order for it to do well in the future. When the price comes down later on, the people who buy PS3's at a discount will be those who have seen it at their friends' houses or heard other people talking about it. If no one in their social circle has access to a PS3, they may not be exposed enough to the product to want to purchase it, especially when far cheaper options are out there (Wii or even 360). Also, someone who can't necessarily afford a $1200 console may still be able to afford a $50 game or two every month, and you want to catch that revenue, not freeze it out by denying that consumer access to the console itself by making it prohibitively expensive.

The upshot of this is that those who wanted a PS3 for $600 can have one, while the secondary markets take care of the high rollers who don't mind paying a few thousand to get one NOW.
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Old 11-28-2006, 10:16 PM   #39 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hiredgun
It's a question of class and access.

Yes, they probably could allow the market to entirely dictate the price. And then suddenly the PS3 would become a very different kind of product.

They don't want the PS3 to be a luxury good that is restricted to the wealthy. It is intended to be a mass consumer product and for that to work, the average person has to have access to it.

There are both practical and less practical reasons for this.

On the level of principle, it has to do with perceived fairness. You don't want to price the console out of the range of people who you perceive to be your target demographic. You don't want to make it an elite product. If the PS3 is really for everyone then it has to be priced that way.

More practically, the product has to permeate more of society than the top few percent, in order for it to do well in the future. When the price comes down later on, the people who buy PS3's at a discount will be those who have seen it at their friends' houses or heard other people talking about it. If no one in their social circle has access to a PS3, they may not be exposed enough to the product to want to purchase it, especially when far cheaper options are out there (Wii or even 360). Also, someone who can't necessarily afford a $1200 console may still be able to afford a $50 game or two every month, and you want to catch that revenue, not freeze it out by denying that consumer access to the console itself by making it prohibitively expensive.

The upshot of this is that those who wanted a PS3 for $600 can have one, while the secondary markets take care of the high rollers who don't mind paying a few thousand to get one NOW.

Why wouldn't they want the majority of the owners to be kids from wealthy families? If they have $3000 to blow on a console, $50 for a game or two won't be a big deal. Sony would make a ton of profit on each console they sold. Buying stuff in the game isn't a problem either. For me growing up, I had to save for months to afford one $30 NES game.

Then in March, you flood the market with them, and since you might be the first one in your social circle to get one, it will be that much better as you will have a toy that the ‘rich’ crowd had.

Let's say it is a Lamborghini that they are selling instead of the PS3. And if you stand in line, you could get one for $20000. Buy, it's real market price is $200,000. The person that has enough time on their hands to wait in line for 2 or 3 days, probably could use the money. So, none of the people we know would keep it, if they got one. And even though I have never driven it, and I know that it is a toy for the rich, it doesn't mean that I would not love to drive a Lamborghini if I had the money.
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Old 11-29-2006, 06:03 AM   #40 (permalink)
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This is one of the many issues that very handily illustrates the inadequacies of textbook economic theory.
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