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Old 10-28-2004, 03:22 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Who could follow Arafat

I thought I'd post this interesting article from BBC that gives brief biographies of Arafat's potential successors.

Quote:
Who could follow Arafat?
By Roger Hardy
Middle East analyst



Yasser Arafat has been careful during his long career not to anoint a successor.


Thousands have died during the four-year intifada

Like many other Arab leaders, he has been wary of rivals - and even his closest lieutenants have often been kept on a short leash.

The death of senior Palestinian official Faisal Husseini in June 2001 strengthened the impression that the old guard of Palestinian leaders are gradually fading from the scene.

And since Mr Arafat is now a frail figure in his mid 70s, speculation about who will one day take his place is inevitable.

The contenders

Possible contenders fall into two main categories. There are the older men who have worked with Mr Arafat for a long time and younger figures who have come to the fore more recently.

Those in the first category worked with the PLO - the umbrella body of the Palestinian movement - during its long years in exile in Jordan, Lebanon and Tunisia.

They are people Mr Arafat trusts, but Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza tend to regard them as outsiders. They are sometimes dubbed the "Tunisians" and some of them are tainted by accusations of corruption.

In the second category are "insiders", younger men who remained in the Israeli-occupied territories when the PLO was in exile.

They have stronger roots than the "Tunisians", and they acquired their first taste of local leadership during the first intifada, or uprising against Israeli rule, which broke out in the late 1980s.


AHMED QUREI ('TUNISIAN')

Better known as Abu Ala, Mr Qurei is the Palestinian prime minister and a figure closely involved in the secret negotiations which led to the Oslo peace agreement with Israel in 1993.

Born in Jerusalem in 1937, Mr Qurei rose to prominence in the PLO in the mid-1970s, and was close to Yasser Arafat in Lebanon and Tunis, before returning to Gaza with the PLO leader in 1994.

After taking over as the Palestinians' second prime minister in September 2003, Mr Qurei exhibited an independence which sat uneasily with Mr Arafat's autocratic style.

He threatened to resign several times over Mr Arafat's failure to give him sufficient powers, but was always persuaded to stay.

Profile: Ahmed Qurei http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/...es/1932797.stm


MAHMOUD ABBAS ('TUNISIAN')

Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has long been Mr Arafat's number two in the PLO. The co-founder of the Fatah movement is another moderate who has frequently negotiated with the Israelis.

In early 2003, he was appointed by Mr Arafat as the Palestinians' first ever prime minister. The US, Israel and the European Union, had insisted the Palestinian leader hand most of his powers over to another leader.

Abu Mazen's leadership was meant to open a new chapter in Israeli-Palestinian relations in which the peace plan known as the roadmap was meant to lead both sides towards resolution. He resigned after four months after losing a power struggle with Mr Arafat.

He is an outspoken critic of the use of violence during the current four-year-old Palestinian intifada and tried to get Islamic militants to end attacks on Israel.

Profile: Mahmoud Abbas http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1933453.stm


NABIL SHAATH ('TUNISIAN')

Nabil Shaath has long been one of Mr Arafat's closest advisers and has been an important negotiator in Palestinian-Israeli talks.

Most recently, he has played the role of ambassador to the outside world for Mr Arafat, who is under virtual house arrest in Ramallah.

The former businessman who holds the post of foreign minister has a reputation of being a moderate.


YASSER ABED-RABBO ('TUNISIAN')

Formerly a member of one of the left-wing factions, Yasser Abed-Rabbo is now a senior PLO official. He is a former Palestinian Authority minister of information and culture.

Last year, Mr Abed Rabbo produced the Geneva Accord along with Yossi Beilin, a one-time Israeli justice minister and one of the main architects of the Oslo peace accord. The plan, an alternative to the US-backed road map, sought to define a "final status" solution based on a division close to that of the pre-1967 borders.

Earlier this year, Mr Abed Rabbo was among 60 leading Palestinian intellectuals and officials who signed a prominent advertisement urging Palestinian militants not to carry out suicide bombings against Israelis.


MOHAMMED DAHLAN ('INSIDER')

Mohammed Dahlan is the former security chief in Gaza. As such, he has considerable experience of dealing face to face with the Israelis. He has also enjoyed the confidence of the United States.

Mr Dahlan is without an official post but retains influence in the Gaza strip. He has been courted by international mediators as someone who could instil order there after a planned Israeli pullout next year.

His relations with Israel and the US have been viewed with deep suspicion by some Palestinians.

Profile: Mohammed Dahlan http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2068270.stm


JIBRIL RAJOUB ('INSIDER')

Jibril Rajoub is the former security chief of the West Bank, where he had built up an independent power base.

Like Mr Dahlan, he has fallen in and out of favour with Mr Arafat. But, he is still influential and has considerable experience of dealing with the Israelis. Also like Mr Dahlan he is considered to be a pragmatist.

He speaks fluent Hebrew and English and is seen as acceptable in Washington and Israel. This, however, has affected his grassroots support.

Profile: Jibril Rajoub http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1881756.stm


MARWAN BARGHOUTI ('INSIDER')

He was the head of Mr Arafat's political organisation, Fatah, in the West Bank.

Many believe him to be the most popular Palestinian politician after Mr Arafat.

Mr Barghouti is currently in an Israeli jail serving five consecutive life sentences.

He was a strong backer of the Oslo peace accords and opposed attacks on Israeli civilians inside Israel. after the start of the current intifada in 2000, he became more militant.

He now backs Mr Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan, describing it as a great achievement of the intifada.

Profile: Marwan Barghouti http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/...es/1473585.stm
I'm embedding the links to the detailed bios (where available) for those who have more than a passing interest in this topic.

I'm wondering what people think? I know there is a lot of animosity towards Arafat in the US (and on this board), but who do you "prefer" from these potential replacements?


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Old 10-28-2004, 03:34 PM   #2 (permalink)
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You know I just reread this a second time and it occurred to me that all of the above are listed as "moderates" or "pragmatists".

One wonders if there are any "hardliners" potentially up for the post.


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Old 10-29-2004, 12:43 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto
I'm wondering what people think?
I've heard that SouthPark pinkslipped Satan. Maybe he'd be interested? (we need a "smartass" smilie)
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Old 10-29-2004, 01:08 AM   #4 (permalink)
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One of the guys up to succeed him is currently in jail with 5 consecutive life sentences hanging over him? I really doubt the isreali's will just let him go so he can lead their enemies.
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Old 10-29-2004, 01:51 AM   #5 (permalink)
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So which one is the Libertarian? Should have set this up as poll, get us warmed up for Nov. 2. I don't really follow Palestinian politics all THAT closely though. In the past I've been pretty impressed by Seab Erekat and what he had to say. He's apparently been nudged out of the government though: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3033601.stm
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Old 10-29-2004, 07:28 AM   #6 (permalink)
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I think its going to be an extremely rough transition. On the one side, you're going to have Palestinean radicals like Hamas demanding a hardline, inflexible successor to Arafat. The other option will take more courage and imagination: elect a moderate Palestinean willing to 1) acknowledge and accept the existence of Israel, 2) take an honest stand against Palestinean terrorism, 3) have a sincere desire to establish a peace treaty with Israel, 4) LEAD the Palestineans out of the 10th Century.

I see outside Arab forces playing an enormous role in the process as well. The power vacuum will be immense, and EVERYBODY in the region is going to want to have their say in the matter. The entire situation is at a Crossroads.

I also wonder if Israel will let Arafat back into Ramallah if he survives his illness, regardless of what they're saying now. I think now is a good time to banish him from the region permanently.
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Old 10-29-2004, 07:47 AM   #7 (permalink)
 
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and what would the point of banishing him now be? i think it would be a political blunder of the highest order to do it. even by the low standards one applies to sharon, this would be seen as a problem, a pr disaster for the israelis.

btw, powerclown--your position seems consistently likud or to the right of it---why is that? not looking for a personal explanation, rather for a poltiical one. just curious.
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Old 10-29-2004, 08:18 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roachboy
and what would the point of banishing him now be? i think it would be a political blunder of the highest order to do it. even by the low standards one applies to sharon, this would be seen as a problem, a pr disaster for the israelis.

btw, powerclown--your position seems consistently likud or to the right of it---why is that? not looking for a personal explanation, rather for a poltiical one. just curious.
The point in banishing him would be to 1) establish a leadership committed to raising its people out of the desperate situation Arafat led them into, 2) establish a leadership interested in dealing with Israel for a real peace, which Arafat has proven unwilling to do.

One could ask you the same question in regards to your outspoken, universal left-wing ideology.

My stance on the Israeli-Palestinean Conflict is well documented here on this board. I don't believe in terrorism as a means of social change. Its a morally bankrupt tactic of the weak-minded. Simply my opinion on the matter, no more or less valid than anyone else's opinion.

Last edited by powerclown; 10-29-2004 at 08:29 AM..
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Old 10-29-2004, 08:27 AM   #9 (permalink)
 
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i wasn't questioning the validity of your position, actually: i was just curious as to why it was so.

for myself, i come out of marxism--but my work as a historian is about the implosion of marxism as a political formation--the consequence of this is that i think it impossible to still be a marxist in any way--not analytically, not conceptually, not politically. but it does influence how i understand things. my basic assumption is that the left remains caught in the vacuum created by the implosion of the older frame of reference, that a new collective elaboration of a very different type of opposition must be undertaken, but that the process has barely started.

in specific situations, this general orientation deploys differently--in the case of the question of the israeli/palestinian conflict, i tend to see the palestinian people as being crushed by a vastly superior military force, subjected to oppressive conditions every day, to be the losers in the conflict as a function of a wide range of political factors, the blame for which extends to all sides and which include arafat.
i do not question israel's right to exist, but i do think that it can and must be held to account according to the same kind of standards that would obtain for any other state.
i do not see how the occupation is justified.
i do not see how it is possible for anyone to look at the politics of theis conflict and not factor in the fact of the settlement policy as fundamental to exacerbating it at every step.
i do not understand how the brutality of the occupation squares with the ideals of the israeli state.
and i do not see why one cannot be critical of that state.

so there you are: your turn.
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Old 10-29-2004, 11:33 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Don't want to hijack the thread but,... I think this would be a golden opportunity for the U.S to come and help in the progress of a future Palestinian leader. They appear to have done a satisfactory job in Iraq with Karzai and could do the same in Palestine.

Further this could give the U.S a lift is public opinion with regards to the Arabs and at the same time could do some dearly needed damage control regarding the one sided nature the U.S has chosen by catering to the Israeli's while totally ignoring the Palestinians.

Of course this would be all in the name of future peace between both sides. If such an attempt were made and were quashed by the Israeli's, their international reputation which is flailing already, would be worthless. Arafat is their biggest excuse to avoid peace and they have done well to convince people of that. With Arafat out of the way and somewhat paradoxically, if the Israeli's don't come to the table showing that indeed they don't want peace (Actually they do want peace, they just don't want to see the creation of an independant Palestinian state,for those who continue with the notion that the Palestinian's don't want Israel to exist--tit for tat), they will be the bigger losers seeing as they still have something to lose unlike the Palestinian's.
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