Where Will Bush Get More Votes than he did in 2000? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

host · 10-12-2004, 01:41 AM

Given the polarization of the country and the fact that Bush was not
the winner of the popular vote in 2000, and, at best won the electoral
vote by a 537 popular vote plurality in Florida, and does not seem to have picked up any new states won by Gore in 2000 (see current polling stats in 2nd quote box), what states do you think that he will win a plurality of the vote, that Gore won in 2000? (Please try to make your case as to why Bush
would (or would not) appeal more to voters in the states that you predict will swing his way this time, than he appealed to voters of those states in 2000?)

Quote:

<div id="webAddress">
This page is available online at <a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html">http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html</a>
</div>



Below is a meta-analysis directed at the question of who would win the Electoral College if
the election were held today. Meta-analysis provides more objectivity and precision
than looking at one or a few polls, and in the case of election prediction gives a more
accurate current snapshot.

<big>
Monday, October 11, 2004 at 9:00PM EDT
</big>



Median expected outcome*:<big>


Kerry 269 EV, Bush 269 EV

</big>(<a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#EVmap">Map</a>) (<a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#pastEV">Trends to 9/25</a>)

95% confidence band:<big>


Kerry 246-301 EV

</big> (Kerry >=270EV: 

46%)

Popular Meta-Margin (<a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#swing">explanation</a>):<big>


Bush leads Kerry by 0.1%

</big>


*If
<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/06/opinion/courtwatch/main647763.shtml">Colorado ballot initiative</a>
passes, transfer 4 EV from Bush to Kerry.

Quote:

<body bgcolor="#E0E0FF">

Current projection = Kerry 291, Bush 247 (updated 10/11/04) 
2000 GOP states picked up by Dems = 3 (Ohio, Arkansas, Nevada) 
2000 Dem states picked up by GOP = 0 

Deadlocked states = 0 

The following is a state-by-state breakdown of current poll results. Where there is no state data, the state's 2000 winner is assumed to win in 2004. In cases where there is a virtual tie, the state goes as "undecided", and electoral votes go to neither candidate. 
Although most polls included Ralph Nader, his vote totals are not included in this report.

<a href="http://www.geocities.com/samboni1342/state_polls.htm" target="_blank">Click here for the latest state poll results</a>

<table border=1 cellpadding=1 cellspacing=1 width=100%>

pan6467 · 10-12-2004, 05:57 AM

I don't know what state Kerry may lose that Gore won, but I can almost predict Ohio being a lot closer and I feel with certainty that Kerry will win Ohio.

The only state that may go Bush that was Gore.... Pennsylvania. And that is because Yahoo had an article this week about how the GOP are drafting and scaring the Amish into voting Republican. While the article did state that many were holding firm to their religious belief and not voting there were a small group that was going to. Whether this can affect Pa. who knows.

Superbelt · 10-12-2004, 06:23 AM

Trying to get the Amish to do anything like voting is like trying to herd cats. There won't be much success. I read the reports about the Republican attempts to reach out to the Amish, fact is only about 10% of Amish ever vote. Abortion and Gay Marriage are issues that could turn them on, but Afghanistan and Iraq are enough to turn them right back off. Amish are vehement pacifists.

The east of this state remains steady democrat and the west has reversed a trend towards the republicans. I live in Central Pa (Pennsyltucky), this area, through my life, has been about as conservative and red as anywhere in the nation.
Lately, I've seen democratic signs like Kerry/Edwards lawn signs out in greater frequency here than I ever have before. It's most likely the recent influx of Baltimore residents who are trying to escape high city taxes by living in York/Lancaster/Adams counties. With democratic Harrisburg to the north this area has lost it's intense red brilliance and is becoming more of a dull pink.

Don't worry bout PA. We were slightly Kerry before the debates and have moved 5-7 points ahead in most of the national polls since debate 2. Debate 3 will be unnecessary. The three most important states in this race, if any of them switch sides means the end for the other are PA, OH and FL. I believe OH is the one most in play for us, especially with 200+% relative incrases in democrat voter rolls in some areas for this cycle.

Paxton_Free · 10-12-2004, 10:01 AM

I do. I think it's unfortunate, but I do.

Everything is so damn black and white these days.

repeater · 10-12-2004, 01:01 PM

I'm in Ohio now for school, I definitely think it'll be a lot closer than it was last year. I've re-registered to vote here and there is a huge liberal art college population that is doing the same. I've also noticed a lot more democrat yard signs than I have in the last election. I'm really excited about this election even though I have no idea who will win.

pan6467 · 10-12-2004, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superbelt

Trying to get the Amish to do anything like voting is like trying to herd cats. There won't be much success. I read the reports about the Republican attempts to reach out to the Amish, fact is only about 10% of Amish ever vote. Abortion and Gay Marriage are issues that could turn them on, but Afghanistan and Iraq are enough to turn them right back off. Amish are vehement pacifists.

The east of this state remains steady democrat and the west has reversed a trend towards the republicans. I live in Central Pa (Pennsyltucky), this area, through my life, has been about as conservative and red as anywhere in the nation.
Lately, I've seen democratic signs like Kerry/Edwards lawn signs out in greater frequency here than I ever have before. It's most likely the recent influx of Baltimore residents who are trying to escape high city taxes by living in York/Lancaster/Adams counties. With democratic Harrisburg to the north this area has lost it's intense red brilliance and is becoming more of a dull pink.

Don't worry bout PA. We were slightly Kerry before the debates and have moved 5-7 points ahead in most of the national polls since debate 2. Debate 3 will be unnecessary. The three most important states in this race, if any of them switch sides means the end for the other are PA, OH and FL. I believe OH is the one most in play for us, especially with 200+% relative incrases in democrat voter rolls in some areas for this cycle.

Thanks Super for the info. I was really offended that the GOP (the self proclaimed religious family values party) was trying to recruitt the Amish, who by their religion feel they should not vote. Don't know why I was surprised Bush and the GOP wouldn't respect their wishes of being left alone and THEIR religious values.

We have a lot of Amish here in Eastern, Ohio and they are good people but they truly want as little contact with the outside as possible.

tom12 · 10-13-2004, 07:52 PM

i dont know, and that really scares me

10-12-2004, 05:57 AM	#2 (permalink)
pan6467 Lennonite Priest Location: Mansfield, Ohio USA	I don't know what state Kerry may lose that Gore won, but I can almost predict Ohio being a lot closer and I feel with certainty that Kerry will win Ohio. The only state that may go Bush that was Gore.... Pennsylvania. And that is because Yahoo had an article this week about how the GOP are drafting and scaring the Amish into voting Republican. While the article did state that many were holding firm to their religious belief and not voting there were a small group that was going to. Whether this can affect Pa. who knows. __________________ I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

10-12-2004, 01:01 PM	#5 (permalink)
repeater Crazy Location: Chicago	I'm in Ohio now for school, I definitely think it'll be a lot closer than it was last year. I've re-registered to vote here and there is a huge liberal art college population that is doing the same. I've also noticed a lot more democrat yard signs than I have in the last election. I'm really excited about this election even though I have no idea who will win. __________________ When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. -Raoul Duke

10-12-2004, 06:23 AM	#3 (permalink)
Superbelt This vexes me. I am terribly vexed. Location: Grantville, Pa	Trying to get the Amish to do anything like voting is like trying to herd cats. There won't be much success. I read the reports about the Republican attempts to reach out to the Amish, fact is only about 10% of Amish ever vote. Abortion and Gay Marriage are issues that could turn them on, but Afghanistan and Iraq are enough to turn them right back off. Amish are vehement pacifists. The east of this state remains steady democrat and the west has reversed a trend towards the republicans. I live in Central Pa (Pennsyltucky), this area, through my life, has been about as conservative and red as anywhere in the nation. Lately, I've seen democratic signs like Kerry/Edwards lawn signs out in greater frequency here than I ever have before. It's most likely the recent influx of Baltimore residents who are trying to escape high city taxes by living in York/Lancaster/Adams counties. With democratic Harrisburg to the north this area has lost it's intense red brilliance and is becoming more of a dull pink. Don't worry bout PA. We were slightly Kerry before the debates and have moved 5-7 points ahead in most of the national polls since debate 2. Debate 3 will be unnecessary. The three most important states in this race, if any of them switch sides means the end for the other are PA, OH and FL. I believe OH is the one most in play for us, especially with 200+% relative incrases in democrat voter rolls in some areas for this cycle.

10-12-2004, 10:01 AM	#4 (permalink)
Paxton_Free Upright	I do. I think it's unfortunate, but I do. Everything is so damn black and white these days.

10-13-2004, 07:52 PM	#7 (permalink)
tom12 Tilted	i dont know, and that really scares me