Given the polarization of the country and the fact that Bush was not
the winner of the popular vote in 2000, and, at best won the electoral
vote by a 537 popular vote plurality in Florida, and does not seem to have picked up any new states won by Gore in 2000 (see current polling stats in 2nd quote box), what states do you think that he will win a plurality of the vote, that Gore won in 2000? (Please try to make your case as to why Bush
would (or would not) appeal more to voters in the states that you predict will swing his way this time, than he appealed to voters of those states in 2000?)
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<p><span>This page is available online at <a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html">http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html</a></span></p>
</div>
<p>
Below is a meta-analysis directed at the question of who would win the Electoral College if
the election were held today. Meta-analysis provides more objectivity and precision
than looking at one or a few polls, and in the case of election prediction gives a more
accurate current snapshot.
<!-- BeginDate -->
<p><big><b>
Monday, October 11, 2004 at 9:00PM EDT
</b></big></p>
<!-- EndDate -->
<p>
Median expected outcome*:<big><b>
<!-- BeginMedian -->
Kerry 269 EV, Bush 269 EV
<!-- EndMedian -->
</b></big>(<a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#EVmap">Map</a>) (<a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#pastEV">Trends to 9/25</a>)</p>
<p>95% confidence band:<big><b>
<!-- BeginKerry95Percent -->
Kerry 246-301 EV
<!-- EndKerry95Percent -->
</b></big> (Kerry >=270EV: <b>
<!-- BeginKerryProbability -->
46%<!-- EndKerryProbability --></b>)</p>
<p>Popular Meta-Margin (<a href="http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html#swing">explanation</a>):<big><b>
<!-- BeginKerrySwingIndex -->
Bush leads Kerry by 0.1%
<!-- EndKerrySwingIndex -->
</b></big>
</p>
<p></p>*If
<a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/06/opinion/courtwatch/main647763.shtml">Colorado ballot initiative</a>
passes, transfer 4 EV from Bush to Kerry.</p>
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<p class="headingtext">Current projection = Kerry 291, Bush 247 (updated 10/11/04)<br><br>
<font size="-1">2000 GOP states picked up by Dems = 3 (Ohio, Arkansas, Nevada) </font><br><br>
<font size="-1">2000 Dem states picked up by GOP = 0 </font><br><br>
<font size="-1">Deadlocked states = 0 </font><br><br>
<p class="textnormal">The following is a state-by-state breakdown of current poll results. Where there is no state data, the state's 2000 winner is assumed to win in 2004. In cases where there is a virtual tie, the state goes as "undecided", and electoral votes go to neither candidate.<br><br>
Although most polls included Ralph Nader, his vote totals are not included in this report.</p>
<p class="textnormal"><font color="red"><a href="http://www.geocities.com/samboni1342/state_polls.htm" target="_blank">Click here for the latest state poll results</a></font></p>
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