Would my vote even count? - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

mosha · 10-02-2004, 03:39 PM

I truly am still undecided on who I am voting for. As of right now I am leaning toward Bush. Anyway, here in VA it is almost a given that the state will go to Bush. If I decided to vote Kerry, who has already stopped advertising here pretty much saying he will lose, how would my vote even matter?

Rekna · 10-02-2004, 04:34 PM

If your state doesn't have a chance for Kerry to win and you really dislike Bush make a statement by voting for a 3rd party.

Journeyman · 10-02-2004, 04:34 PM

Elector count is determined by population (census bureau), so whether you vote or not, your residence in a state is factored in to how much the winning candidate will benefit from your states votes. So long as you're presence is being used for the electoral process, you may as well vote, regardless of the chances of your candidate winning.

Tombstone

Quote:

Crawley Dake : Ah, I see. To strike it rich. Well, all right, that's fine. Tell you one thing, though... I never saw a rich man who didn't wind up with a guilty conscience.
Wyatt Earp : I already got a guilty conscience. Might as well have the money, too. Good day, now.

guy44 · 10-02-2004, 05:32 PM

Edited for grammar.

It depends how you define, "count." If you mean, will my vote make a difference in who gets elected president in 2004, the answer is, no. Really, in a plurality system (winner takes all) the value of a single vote is entirely contained within its chances of being the one vote that breaks a tie. The safer a state is, the less likely a vote cast within that state will break a tie, and as a result, it loses value. Mathematically speaking, in a safe state like VA, your vote really will "count" for very little.

However, there are other value systems by which you can measure the importance of a vote. If you see it as your civic duty, then voting even in a safe state is valuable indeed. If you believe in the value of looking at the popular vote (the number of people for Bush nationwide vs. the number of people for Kerry nationwide), then your vote has more value, as the race will be a close one nationally.

Also, as someone pointed out, you could vote for a third-party candidate and have your vote take on a completely different meaning. So it boils down to how you look at it.

mattevil · 10-02-2004, 05:57 PM

I'm voting in VA this election and Kerry could win it since Bush doesn't have a huge lead on Kerry in the state.You'd still probably be safe voting for third party if you identify with any of them.
I've been monitoring VA on electoral-vote.com and I've seen the polls say that VA is "Barely Bush" to "Strong Bush" to it's current "Weak Bush" rating (this is all without cellphone users being polled too).
I'd forget about wondering if your vote counts and try to find the candidate that has supported your beliefs the closest no matter the party and vote for them.

FoolThemAll · 10-02-2004, 11:20 PM

Plus, there are other races on the ballot besides the presidential race. Well-worth showing up for those. Ballot initiatives, too.

Rodney · 10-03-2004, 01:59 AM

Statewide-races are always worth showing up and voting for. But it's true that the abolition of the electorale college, so that the official winner was always the candidate who got the most votes nationwide, would make your presidential vote more meaningful.

ubertuber · 10-03-2004, 08:22 AM

2 things:

1) The only poll that matters is the one taken on election day. The wide range of poll figures we have seen over the last few weeks only drive home the point that statistics and polling are important, but not entirely reliable. Don't base your decisions on the predictions of experts. Your vote counts.

2) There will be state and local elections as well. These people may well affect your daily life more than the President of the US does. In VA, you don't have any state elections, but you should be having an election for your House Representative. I couldn't find anything about Williamsburg local elections quickly, but there probably are at least a few. Your vote will count - use it.

mosha · 10-03-2004, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ubertuber

2 things:

1) The only poll that matters is the one taken on election day. The wide range of poll figures we have seen over the last few weeks only drive home the point that statistics and polling are important, but not entirely reliable. Don't base your decisions on the predictions of experts. Your vote counts.

2) There will be state and local elections as well. These people may well affect your daily life more than the President of the US does. In VA, you don't have any state elections, but you should be having an election for your House Representative. I couldn't find anything about Williamsburg local elections quickly, but there probably are at least a few. Your vote will count - use it.

Thanks to everyone for their input. I plan to show up at the polls in Novemeber no matter what, its just that when people ask me who I'm voting for I sometimes wnat to answer with "Does it matter in VA?" I mean VA hasnt voted Dem. for President in like the last 40+ years. Anyway, its more of a "I have the right to vote so I'm going to use it" ideal thats going to get me to show up.

ubertuber · 10-04-2004, 08:46 AM

You are correct - VA went Dem last in 1964 for Lyndon Johnson. However, in 1996 the Dems only lost by about 2 percent (actually a little less). The other issue is that if the Republicans win big (and I mean huge) in VA it may be seen as a secure state and will be less likely to be targeted by the Democrats in 2008. Conversely, if the state is close, then VA could be seen as a valuable swing state - 13 electoral votes isn't a lot, but it also isn't nothing.

Anyone interested in this stuff should check out www.uselectionatlas.org
There is a ton of cool information including electoral college maps down to the county level for almost every election that we've had. I have spent hours checking it out!

irateplatypus · 10-04-2004, 10:01 AM

even if your individual vote doesn't swing the state one way or the other, you should still cast it. vote #'s and margins are always being evaluated by political types. your vote will have its effect... cast it accordingly.

Zar · 10-04-2004, 10:59 AM

Useless factoid from my poli. sci. class: You have a greater chance of dying on the way to the polls (car accident, lightning, etc.) than of your vote being the deciding vote in the election.

Nevertheless, you should definitely still vote, for the reasons people have given above. As has been said, your impact on local elections is much greater than on the presidential. It's somewhat ironic that many people only pay attention to the election that they have the smallest chance of affecting.

DelayedReaction · 10-04-2004, 11:11 AM

Maryland has a republican governer, despite being as democratic as you can get. If the People's Republic of Maryland can elect Bahama Bob as their governer, then Virginia could feasibly go democrat.

I'm in a situation similar to yours in that I want Kerry over Bush, but I would also like to make a statement by voting Libertarian. I decided to vote for Kerry because of how close the election is percieved to be; I suggest you do the same. Even if the chance is slim, the chance is still there.

Zeld2.0 · 10-04-2004, 06:51 PM

You should always vote even if you think you won't win

Why? Because there are probably very many like-minded people in every state of every party which thinks "oh well I shouldn't vote because we're not going to win anyway..."

And if the election is decided by 100 votes? Then those 100 same minded people who didn't vote would kick themselves in the ass for years...

After how close Florida was in 2000, all I can say is: vote vote vote.

Redlemon · 10-05-2004, 04:22 AM

Don't vote based on what the polls say.

1) There is a greater than 90% hangup rate on pollsters calling (stat in Time Magazine, I think last week). They are only talking to the people who like telling their opinions to strangers.

2) The pollsters only reach those people that are at home during certain hours, and completely miss those people who only have cell phones.

3) There are huge numbers of new voters registering for the first time this year. They aren't on the pollsters logs.

I can't see how any polls can be accurate under these circumstances.

trickyy · 10-05-2004, 09:43 PM

i plan to vote in a state supposedly split 57 - 35 ish

also got guvnor, representative, local reps, and some ballot measures to vote on

Sippy · 10-06-2004, 04:43 PM

The Electoral College is what really matters. If you are in a state that is obviously going for one candidate or another than no your vote really does not count if you vote for the loser.

That being siad you should voter your concience even if that means voting for a third party. In fact voting for say Badnarik instead of Kerry in a Bush state says more in my opinion.

seep · 10-07-2004, 04:20 AM

Heh...

I've thought about this myself.

I live in Texas. There's absolutely no way whatsoever that Bush isn't going to take Texas, no matter how much of a drooling retard I think he is. An upset will absolutely not happen. Showing up at the polls is nothing more than a formality for me.

I figure I'll vote 3rd party, I don't really like Kerry either anyway...

summerkc · 10-10-2004, 12:50 PM

You should vote for who shares the values that you hold, no matter which party or if it will count. Think of all of the republicans in the differnt states that didn't vote because their state "always" goes to the GOP. What happend is that the Dems lost the electoral vote but won the popular vote, and we still here Dems b*tchin about that still and saying "he was selected and not elected". Too bad those people didn't vote so we wouldn't have been so divided to start out with Jan 01.

10-02-2004, 03:39 PM	#1 (permalink)
mosha Crazy Location: Htown, NJ	Would my vote even count? I truly am still undecided on who I am voting for. As of right now I am leaning toward Bush. Anyway, here in VA it is almost a given that the state will go to Bush. If I decided to vote Kerry, who has already stopped advertising here pretty much saying he will lose, how would my vote even matter?

10-02-2004, 05:32 PM	#4 (permalink)
guy44 Somnabulist Location: corner of No and Where	Edited for grammar. It depends how you define, "count." If you mean, will my vote make a difference in who gets elected president in 2004, the answer is, no. Really, in a plurality system (winner takes all) the value of a single vote is entirely contained within its chances of being the one vote that breaks a tie. The safer a state is, the less likely a vote cast within that state will break a tie, and as a result, it loses value. Mathematically speaking, in a safe state like VA, your vote really will "count" for very little. However, there are other value systems by which you can measure the importance of a vote. If you see it as your civic duty, then voting even in a safe state is valuable indeed. If you believe in the value of looking at the popular vote (the number of people for Bush nationwide vs. the number of people for Kerry nationwide), then your vote has more value, as the race will be a close one nationally. Also, as someone pointed out, you could vote for a third-party candidate and have your vote take on a completely different meaning. So it boils down to how you look at it. __________________ "You have reached Ritual Sacrifice. For goats press one, or say 'goats.'"

10-02-2004, 11:20 PM	#6 (permalink)
FoolThemAll Walking is Still Honest Location: Seattle, WA	Plus, there are other races on the ballot besides the presidential race. Well-worth showing up for those. Ballot initiatives, too. __________________ I wonder if we're stuck in Rome.

10-03-2004, 08:22 AM	#8 (permalink)
ubertuber spudly Location: Ellay	2 things: 1) The only poll that matters is the one taken on election day. The wide range of poll figures we have seen over the last few weeks only drive home the point that statistics and polling are important, but not entirely reliable. Don't base your decisions on the predictions of experts. Your vote counts. 2) There will be state and local elections as well. These people may well affect your daily life more than the President of the US does. In VA, you don't have any state elections, but you should be having an election for your House Representative. I couldn't find anything about Williamsburg local elections quickly, but there probably are at least a few. Your vote will count - use it. __________________ Cogito ergo spud -- I think, therefore I yam

10-04-2004, 08:46 AM	#10 (permalink)
ubertuber spudly Location: Ellay	You are correct - VA went Dem last in 1964 for Lyndon Johnson. However, in 1996 the Dems only lost by about 2 percent (actually a little less). The other issue is that if the Republicans win big (and I mean huge) in VA it may be seen as a secure state and will be less likely to be targeted by the Democrats in 2008. Conversely, if the state is close, then VA could be seen as a valuable swing state - 13 electoral votes isn't a lot, but it also isn't nothing. Anyone interested in this stuff should check out www.uselectionatlas.org There is a ton of cool information including electoral college maps down to the county level for almost every election that we've had. I have spent hours checking it out! __________________ Cogito ergo spud -- I think, therefore I yam

10-02-2004, 04:34 PM	#2 (permalink)
Rekna Junkie	If your state doesn't have a chance for Kerry to win and you really dislike Bush make a statement by voting for a 3rd party.

10-02-2004, 05:57 PM	#5 (permalink)
mattevil Addict Location: Virginia	I'm voting in VA this election and Kerry could win it since Bush doesn't have a huge lead on Kerry in the state.You'd still probably be safe voting for third party if you identify with any of them. I've been monitoring VA on electoral-vote.com and I've seen the polls say that VA is "Barely Bush" to "Strong Bush" to it's current "Weak Bush" rating (this is all without cellphone users being polled too). I'd forget about wondering if your vote counts and try to find the candidate that has supported your beliefs the closest no matter the party and vote for them.

10-03-2004, 01:59 AM	#7 (permalink)
Rodney Observant Ruminant Location: Rich Wannabe Hippie Town	Statewide-races are always worth showing up and voting for. But it's true that the abolition of the electorale college, so that the official winner was always the candidate who got the most votes nationwide, would make your presidential vote more meaningful.

10-04-2004, 10:01 AM	#11 (permalink)
irateplatypus can't help but laugh Location: dar al-harb	even if your individual vote doesn't swing the state one way or the other, you should still cast it. vote #'s and margins are always being evaluated by political types. your vote will have its effect... cast it accordingly. __________________ If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves. ~ Winston Churchill

10-04-2004, 10:59 AM	#12 (permalink)
Zar Tilted Location: St. Louis	Useless factoid from my poli. sci. class: You have a greater chance of dying on the way to the polls (car accident, lightning, etc.) than of your vote being the deciding vote in the election. Nevertheless, you should definitely still vote, for the reasons people have given above. As has been said, your impact on local elections is much greater than on the presidential. It's somewhat ironic that many people only pay attention to the election that they have the smallest chance of affecting.

10-04-2004, 11:11 AM	#13 (permalink)
DelayedReaction BFG Builder Location: University of Maryland	Maryland has a republican governer, despite being as democratic as you can get. If the People's Republic of Maryland can elect Bahama Bob as their governer, then Virginia could feasibly go democrat. I'm in a situation similar to yours in that I want Kerry over Bush, but I would also like to make a statement by voting Libertarian. I decided to vote for Kerry because of how close the election is percieved to be; I suggest you do the same. Even if the chance is slim, the chance is still there. __________________ If ignorance is bliss, you must be having an orgasm.

10-04-2004, 06:51 PM	#14 (permalink)
Zeld2.0 Cherry-pickin' devil's advocate Location: Los Angeles	You should always vote even if you think you won't win Why? Because there are probably very many like-minded people in every state of every party which thinks "oh well I shouldn't vote because we're not going to win anyway..." And if the election is decided by 100 votes? Then those 100 same minded people who didn't vote would kick themselves in the ass for years... After how close Florida was in 2000, all I can say is: vote vote vote.

10-05-2004, 04:22 AM	#15 (permalink)
Redlemon Devoted Donor Location: New England	Don't vote based on what the polls say. 1) There is a greater than 90% hangup rate on pollsters calling (stat in Time Magazine, I think last week). They are only talking to the people who like telling their opinions to strangers. 2) The pollsters only reach those people that are at home during certain hours, and completely miss those people who only have cell phones. 3) There are huge numbers of new voters registering for the first time this year. They aren't on the pollsters logs. I can't see how any polls can be accurate under these circumstances.

10-05-2004, 09:43 PM	#16 (permalink)
trickyy ►	i plan to vote in a state supposedly split 57 - 35 ish also got guvnor, representative, local reps, and some ballot measures to vote on

10-06-2004, 04:43 PM	#17 (permalink)
Sippy Upright	The Electoral College is what really matters. If you are in a state that is obviously going for one candidate or another than no your vote really does not count if you vote for the loser. That being siad you should voter your concience even if that means voting for a third party. In fact voting for say Badnarik instead of Kerry in a Bush state says more in my opinion.

10-07-2004, 04:20 AM	#18 (permalink)
seep Tilted	Heh... I've thought about this myself. I live in Texas. There's absolutely no way whatsoever that Bush isn't going to take Texas, no matter how much of a drooling retard I think he is. An upset will absolutely not happen. Showing up at the polls is nothing more than a formality for me. I figure I'll vote 3rd party, I don't really like Kerry either anyway...

10-10-2004, 12:50 PM	#19 (permalink)
summerkc Tilted Location: Indiana	You should vote for who shares the values that you hold, no matter which party or if it will count. Think of all of the republicans in the differnt states that didn't vote because their state "always" goes to the GOP. What happend is that the Dems lost the electoral vote but won the popular vote, and we still here Dems b*tchin about that still and saying "he was selected and not elected". Too bad those people didn't vote so we wouldn't have been so divided to start out with Jan 01.