You are correct - VA went Dem last in 1964 for Lyndon Johnson. However, in 1996 the Dems only lost by about 2 percent (actually a little less). The other issue is that if the Republicans win big (and I mean huge) in VA it may be seen as a secure state and will be less likely to be targeted by the Democrats in 2008. Conversely, if the state is close, then VA could be seen as a valuable swing state - 13 electoral votes isn't a lot, but it also isn't nothing.
Anyone interested in this stuff should check out
www.uselectionatlas.org
There is a ton of cool information including electoral college maps down to the county level for almost every election that we've had. I have spent hours checking it out!