"Our political system is broken": Crist quits the GOP in his run for the Senate - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Baraka_Guru · 04-30-2010, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Centrist Florida governor falls through the cracks of a deeply divided GOP

Konrad Yakabuski

Washington — From Friday's Globe and Mail Published on Friday, Apr. 30, 2010 4:55AM EDT Last updated on Friday, Apr. 30, 2010 10:30AM EDT

It’s Ross Perot in reverse.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist’s move to quit the Republican Party to run as an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate this fall illustrates just how far the GOP has swung right since Mr. Perot ran for president in 1992.

Back then, Mr. Perot, the hard-right outsider, drained the vote of conservatives who thought the Republicans had moved too far toward the mushy middle. Now, it’s the centrist Mr. Crist who is being chased from a GOP that has fallen under the spell of Tea Party purists.

The end result could be the same, as an ideological schism splits the Republican vote in November’s midterm congressional election.

Mr. Crist, who launched his campaign Thursday as the “people’s candidate” for the prized Florida seat, had been trailing badly in the Republican primary race that pitted him against Tea Party favourite Marco Rubio.

“I haven’t supported an idea because it's a Republican idea or it's a Democratic idea. I support ideas that I believe are good ideas for the people,” Mr. Crist charged, insisting that his decision to bolt the party “says more about our nation and our state than it does about me.”

Mr. Crist’s independent candidacy sets the stage for a three-way Senate race with Mr. Rubio, who is now assured of the GOP nomination, and Kendrick Meek, the expected Democratic candidate. A safe Republican seat is suddenly in play with Mr. Crist the favourite to win.

A similar dynamic to the Rubio-Crist duel is unfolding in Republican primaries across the country, as hard-right candidates harness the anger of Tea Party newcomers to recast the party as a radical anti-government formation.

In Senate primaries in Kentucky, Arizona and Colorado, middle-of-the-road GOP stalwarts are seriously threatened by upstarts who would have been dismissed as fringe candidates not long ago.

The GOP has been a sitting duck for such a right-wing takeover, since its ranks were decimated during George W. Bush’s final years in office. But in their quest for purity, the new-breed Republicans may also sacrifice winnability.

“This is potentially very problematic for the Republican Party,” University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith warned in an interview. “By embracing the far right candidate it could be very difficult for them to win in a general election.”

The 53-year-old Mr. Crist, a George Hamilton doppelganger who is a walking billboard for Coppertone, was first elected governor in 2006 and immediately began infuriating Republican hard-liners.

He revoked almost 300 nominations made by his GOP predecessor Jeb Bush, required paper records of all ballots (to avoid a repeat of the presidential 2000 election fiasco in Florida) and extended voting hours in 2008 – all measures favoured by Democrats.

Yes, he opposed gay marriage – a position that earned him an attempted “outing” in the 2009 documentary Outrage – and appointed conservative, anti-abortion judges to the Florida Supreme Court.

But that was not enough, in Republican eyes, to compensate for his biggest sin – embracing President Barack Obama (literally) and endorsing his $787-billion (U.S.) stimulus plan in early 2009.

It was no bear hug – more like an awkward man-embrace as the two gripped each other’s arms as they shook hands. But “the hug” launched the primary career of Mr. Rubio, the 38-year-old son of Cuban exiles and former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, as he seized on the stimulus package, the record federal deficit, bank bailouts and health-care reform as symbols of government gone awry.

“He will certainly have plenty of money,” Florida State University political science professor Robert Crew said of Mr. Rubio. “He will also have the Republican Party get-out-the-vote apparatus on his side and it has traditionally been one of the best in the country.”

There are signs Mr. Rubio may temper his politics to broaden his appeal. He came out this week against a controversial new Arizona law aimed at cracking down on illegal immigrants. While his Latino roots may have something to do with that, the move was unpopular with some of his Tea Party supporters.

“If he moves to the centre he risks alienating the same people who brought him to the dance,” Prof. Smith opined.

Mr. Crist has also been doing some repositioning. Two weeks ago, he vetoed a state bill that would have eliminated job security for teachers and linked their salaries to student performance on standardized test scores. The move ingratiated him to the teachers’ union, which has been running TV ads thanking him.

Mr. Crist’s decision to slam the door on his party, however self-interested, should be a wake-up call to Republicans across the country as they contemplate how to regain control of Congress and the White House.

“I can confirm what most Floridians already know,” Mr. Crist asserted in announcing his split from the GOP. “Our political system is broken.''

Well, maybe not the system. More like one of its parties.

Centrist Florida governor falls through the cracks of a deeply divided GOP - The Globe and Mail

So Florida Governor Charlie Crist has quit the Republican Party to run as an independent candidate for the U.S. Senate.

What do you think of this move?

Is it indicative of how the Republicans have swung further right, as the article implies?

It also suggests that this is an indication of how the Republicans have been swayed by the Tea Party movement, and that Crist's move is a way to distance himself from it.

Do you think this will lead to further fragmentation within the Republican party?

Do you think the party has moved further to the right?

How far do you think it will go? How will the Republicans sell themselves in future elections?

Is the political system broken, or is it merely the Republican party?

Craven Morehead · 04-30-2010, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru

Is the political system broken, or is it merely the Republican party?

Democratic Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is not seeking re-election for much the same reason - the political system is broken.

However, since Bayh decided not to run for the Senate again and Crist made the change in order to retain his seat, Bayh's response certainly seems much more believable. Crist on the other hand can be perceived of doing whatever is necessary to keep his job.

Wes Mantooth · 04-30-2010, 11:29 AM

I've thought the political system here in the US has been broken for decades, if not longer. The major issue, in my opinion, is both political parties catering so much to their own base that they've lost the ability to view anything from the middle, where I'd wager (without searching around to back this up) the majority of Americans probably sit. In other words most people are shoehorning themselves into one side or the other but really not being satisfied with either and are left feeling disappointed in the govt they've elected.

I think moves like this will become more and more common over the next decade or two as more people begin to seek out and vote for 3rd party candidates in a backlash of sorts against myopic, lock step politicians/parties more interested in the party line then whats right for the country.

Mojo_PeiPei · 04-30-2010, 11:47 AM

This isn't some major doomsday breakdown in the Republican ranks. This is merely some donkey who couldn't secure his parties nomination so he's going the next best route not named democrat.

Look at current poll numbers and tell me the state of the republican party. For as much as I'm sure everyone on TFP hates them and labels them, the "tea party" are definitively doing solid work for the republicans as much as they claim they are independently affiliated. Oh and wait for November, early prediction I know, but for some reason me thinks that 2010 will balance out the aberration(s) that was 06' & 08'.

FuglyStick · 04-30-2010, 05:19 PM

"Aberration"? So if a republican/conservative isn't in office, it's an "aberration"?

This is the kind of thinking that makes the whole "take our country back" mantra sound so ignorant. Listen closely, conservatives--it's not your country. It's OUR country, conservatives and liberals alike. You represent a portion of it--a minority portion, if the elections of '08 are any kind of gauge. I swear to god, I have no desire whatsoever to try to understand the point-of-view of someone stupid enough to insinuate "if it ain't conservative, it's un-American".

Oh, and Crist is just another political whore cut from the Lieberman cloth.

pan6467 · 05-01-2010, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FuglyStick

"Aberration"? So if a republican/conservative isn't in office, it's an "aberration"?

This is the kind of thinking that makes the whole "take our country back" mantra sound so ignorant. Listen closely, conservatives--it's not your country. It's OUR country, conservatives and liberals alike. You represent a portion of it--a minority portion, if the elections of '08 are any kind of gauge. I swear to god, I have no desire whatsoever to try to understand the point-of-view of someone stupid enough to insinuate "if it ain't conservative, it's un-American".

Oh, and Crist is just another political whore cut from the Lieberman cloth.

THAT'S the problem, the Left does it and says it as much as the Right does.

I liked the tea party idea and went to a few but when I see nothing but right winged nutcases (Beck, Levine, Hannity, France (here in Cleveland area and so on) doing all the speaking and the people just stand/sit there and aren't allowed to speak or won't speak, it became obvious the Right was doing nothing but playing on negative emotions (primarily anger, paranoia, fear, etc) to win. (Which does win.) So the Right is smart in that aspect, short term.

The problem is, the Right better live up to the Tea Party's ideals or they will be in serious trouble in 2 years. Hell, if they don't, the whole political system is probably done in 2 years because people will not trust either party.

I think by now and November, IF the tea parties don't start showing true RESPONSE to the people and not TELLING people how to feel, you'll see a slight decline in their popularity which could seriously hurt the GOP in Nov.

PS... for a conspiracist like me, the tea parties show EXACTLY how BOTH parties are in it only for the power and to promote their own agendas outside while internally working for the same ends.... the destruction of all freedoms.

FuglyStick · 05-01-2010, 03:54 PM

Yeah, the political system will be fine in two years, regardless of the Chicken Little contingent.

WinchesterAA · 05-01-2010, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pan6467

THAT'S the problem, the Left does it and says it as much as the Right does.

I liked the tea party idea and went to a few but when I see nothing but right winged nutcases (Beck, Levine, Hannity, France (here in Cleveland area and so on) doing all the speaking and the people just stand/sit there and aren't allowed to speak or won't speak, it became obvious the Right was doing nothing but playing on negative emotions (primarily anger, paranoia, fear, etc) to win. (Which does win.) So the Right is smart in that aspect, short term.

The problem is, the Right better live up to the Tea Party's ideals or they will be in serious trouble in 2 years. Hell, if they don't, the whole political system is probably done in 2 years because people will not trust either party.

I think by now and November, IF the tea parties don't start showing true RESPONSE to the people and not TELLING people how to feel, you'll see a slight decline in their popularity which could seriously hurt the GOP in Nov.

PS... for a conspiracist like me, the tea parties show EXACTLY how BOTH parties are in it only for the power and to promote their own agendas outside while internally working for the same ends.... the destruction of all freedoms.

But dude, how do you explain to people that just because Option A and Option B are both wrong, that even though Option C isn't listed, it DOES exist and can be selected?

Terrell · 05-02-2010, 04:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Craven Morehead

Democratic Indiana Senator Evan Bayh is not seeking re-election for much the same reason - the political system is broken.

However, since Bayh decided not to run for the Senate again and Crist made the change in order to retain his seat, Bayh's response certainly seems much more believable. Crist on the other hand can be perceived of doing whatever is necessary to keep his job.

Crist isn't the Senator from Florida. Mel Martinez is the person Crist is running to replace (against Rubio and Meeks). His current office is Governor of Florida.

Craven Morehead · 05-02-2010, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terrell

Crist isn't the Senator from Florida. Mel Martinez is the person Crist is running to replace (against Rubio and Meeks). His current office is Governor of Florida.

Yeah, I just realized that as I watched him on Meet the Press. My point still stands, he's doing this solely to get elected. And after watching him on Meet the Press, I'm even more sure of it.

roachboy · 05-02-2010, 07:44 AM

i basically agree with mojo about crist (!) but see the possible downsides quite differently. i think these moves expose the center to a defeat from the right.
this didn't work out so well in earlier times and other places for the center-right which confronted a (neo-)fascist movement and underestimated it.
and i don't see the republicans as the teabagger party: i see a power struggle going that involves different patronage systems (the deep pockets) who are trying to shape ways to get the right around the giant steaming pile of poo that is the legacy of the bush people. which you cannot pretend is not present. moves like crists are indications of how that struggle is being perceived in different areas of the country. in fla, it appears that the far right has enough momentum to send the sane right fleeing into---well where?---no organization no money no chance, right?

we'll see.

dc_dux · 05-02-2010, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pan6467

THAT'S the problem, the Left does it and says it as much as the Right does.

I liked the tea party idea and went to a few but when I see nothing but right winged nutcases (Beck, Levine, Hannity, France (here in Cleveland area and so on) doing all the speaking and the people just stand/sit there and aren't allowed to speak or won't speak, it became obvious the Right was doing nothing but playing on negative emotions (primarily anger, paranoia, fear, etc) to win. (Which does win.) So the Right is smart in that aspect, short term.

The problem is, the Right better live up to the Tea Party's ideals or they will be in serious trouble in 2 years. Hell, if they don't, the whole political system is probably done in 2 years because people will not trust either party.

I think by now and November, IF the tea parties don't start showing true RESPONSE to the people and not TELLING people how to feel, you'll see a slight decline in their popularity which could seriously hurt the GOP in Nov.

PS... for a conspiracist like me, the tea parties show EXACTLY how BOTH parties are in it only for the power and to promote their own agendas outside while internally working for the same ends.... the destruction of all freedoms.

While the sentiments behind many in the Tea Party movement are genuine....the movement itself is hardly a populist, grass roots movement.

Consider the money behind the Tea Party movement.... the organizations funding the events, the bus tours, etc.

They are astro-turf organizations - presented as grass roots, but fronts for Washington insiders and special interests.

Washington insider/lobbyist/former Congressman Dick Armey and Freedom Works

Washington inside/lobbyist Grover Norquist and Americans for Tax Reform

Americans for Prosperity funded by the Koch Industries and the Koch Family Foundation, with former ties to the John Birch Society, but now libertarian business interest org.

These are the powers behind the Tea Party movement.

FuglyStick · 05-02-2010, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

While the sentiments behind many in the Tea Party movement are genuine....the movement itself is hardly a populist, grass roots movement.

Consider the money behind the Tea Party movement.... the organizations funding the events, the bus tours, etc.

They are astro-turf organizations - presented as grass roots, but fronts for Washington insiders and special interests.

Washington insider/lobbyist/former Congressman Dick Armey and Freedom Works

Washington inside/lobbyist Grover Norquist and Americans for Tax Reform

Americans for Prosperity funded by the Koch Industries and the Koch Family Foundation, with former ties to the John Birch Society, but now libertarian business interest org.

These are the powers behind the Tea Party movement.

Don't forget they have their own cable "news" network.

Mojo_PeiPei · 05-02-2010, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FuglyStick

"Aberration"? So if a republican/conservative isn't in office, it's an "aberration"?

This is the kind of thinking that makes the whole "take our country back" mantra sound so ignorant. Listen closely, conservatives--it's not your country. It's OUR country, conservatives and liberals alike. You represent a portion of it--a minority portion, if the elections of '08 are any kind of gauge. I swear to god, I have no desire whatsoever to try to understand the point-of-view of someone stupid enough to insinuate "if it ain't conservative, it's un-American".

Oh, and Crist is just another political whore cut from the Lieberman cloth.

Aberration as in the political culture had predominantly swung Right of center, especially in regards to congress, since 94'. Then you get 08' when the Obama starts running, and everyone gets all "hopey and changey" (I'm sure people will state I'm a huge Palin fan), and the Dems take a solid majority as a result of the republicans being inept, unpopular war/lame duck president, and just basically not offering anything to vote for.

And 2 short years later Barry's popularity numbers have seen him take the biggest term loss in 50 years (Barack Obama sees worst poll rating drop in 50 years - Telegraph), where currently his Presidential approval index rating is at -9 (30% strongly approve, 39% strongly disapprove. Overall the man is below what I would assume is the margin of error (or right at it) at 48% approval v. 51% disapproval. (Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports).

The democratic party numbers as a whole are at an 18 year low, where you now have the republicans ahead by 1% (42% v. 41%). And most importantly, there is a massive shift in approval amongst independent voters where between Nov 08' and June 09' they had a 47% approval rating of democrats, which has since dropped considerably to 30%. Although admittedly at the same time independents really haven't picked up any love for the GOP with a mere 1% increase in the same time frame.(Democratic Party Image Drops to Record Low)

Again to sum, aberration as in the shift to voting sharply for democrats, whereas later this year you will for sure see, if not a correction which evens everything out, a shift back right, which will nullify democratic congressional power in both houses.

filtherton · 05-02-2010, 02:00 PM

Interesting interpretations, mojo. I don't know that you can necessarily extrapolate approval numbers to make statements about America's political leanings. For instance, there are a whole slew of liberal reasons to strongly disapprove of Obama's performance. Perhaps if you found data that corrected for political affiliation your interpretation would have more credibility.

dc_dux · 05-02-2010, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei

Aberration as in the political culture had predominantly swung Right of center, especially in regards to congress, since 94'. Then you get 08' when the Obama starts running, and everyone gets all "hopey and changey" (I'm sure people will state I'm a huge Palin fan), and the Dems take a solid majority as a result of the republicans being inept, unpopular war/lame duck president, and just basically not offering anything to vote for.

And 2 short years later Barry's popularity numbers have seen him take the biggest term loss in 50 years (Barack Obama sees worst poll rating drop in 50 years - Telegraph), where currently his Presidential approval index rating is at -9 (30% strongly approve, 39% strongly disapprove. Overall the man is below what I would assume is the margin of error (or right at it) at 48% approval v. 51% disapproval. (Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports).

The democratic party numbers as a whole are at an 18 year low, where you now have the republicans ahead by 1% (42% v. 41%). And most importantly, there is a massive shift in approval amongst independent voters where between Nov 08' and June 09' they had a 47% approval rating of democrats, which has since dropped considerably to 30%. Although admittedly at the same time independents really haven't picked up any love for the GOP with a mere 1% increase in the same time frame.(Democratic Party Image Drops to Record Low)

Again to sum, aberration as in the shift to voting sharply for democrats, whereas later this year you will for sure see, if not a correction which evens everything out, a shift back right, which will nullify democratic congressional power in both houses.

Gallup compares Obama's job approval rating with past presidents....and he stands up pretty well.

For example:
Obama, April 19-25, 2010 - 50% approval
Reagan, April 22-26, 1982 - 43% approval
Clinton, April 22-24, 1994 - 48% approval

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Pr...al-Center.aspx

Filtheron is correct. If you look below the surface of the polls, a statistically significant portion of the dissatisfaction with the Democrats in Congress is coming from the left, upset that the Congressional agenda is not liberal enough.

And while the Democrats in Congress approval numbers are lowest in recent years, they still top Republican numbers in most polls.

Job approval - Congressional Democrats
Job approval - Congressional Republicans

In the longer term, the demographics favor the Democrats, given that the profile of the Republican party is older, whiter, and male (much like those who say they support the Tea Party movement).

Unless the Republican party becomes less socially conservative, it will continue to alienate women and, even more so, minorities. In another 25-30 years, the majority of the population in the US will be minorities.

Mojo_PeiPei · 05-02-2010, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dc_dux

Gallup compares Obama's job approval rating with past presidents....and he stands up pretty well.

For example:
Obama, April 19-25, 2010 - 50% approval
Reagan, April 22-26, 1982 - 43% approval
Clinton, April 22-24, 1994 - 48% approval

Presidential Job Approval Center

Filtheron is correct. If you look below the surface of the polls, a statistically significant portion of the dissatisfaction with the Democrats in Congress is coming from the left, upset that the Congressional agenda is not liberal enough.

And while the Democrats in Congress approval numbers are lowest in recent years, they still top Republican numbers in most polls.

Job approval - Congressional Democrats
Job approval - Congressional Republicans

In the longer term, the demographics favor the Democrats, given that the profile of the Republican party is older, whiter, and male (much like those who say they support the Tea Party movement).

Unless the Republican party becomes less socially conservative, it will continue to alienate women and, even more so, minorities. In another 25-30 years, the majority of the population in the US will be minorities.

Fair enough maybe, I will concede if wrong. But the numbers I saw showed a very strong decrease in Barry's numbers, I was talking about my own aforementioned "aberration". Barack's numbers have slid heavily since his election, the democrats numbers have slid steadily.

Admittedly the Republicans have made no ground... at the same time, the most pressing and relevant thing I saw was that Independent voters have swung strongly against the administration and Barry. A lot of my posts in this thread were speculation, but I assure you I posted those numbers in good faith.

I've taken a strong time of from tfp, can't even recall the length, and I don't want to go back to how it was. Saying that I apologize if I come of as combative or divisive, I think I've fallen on a political plane of apathy.

Dc_Dux my numbers had Barry at 48% not far off of your 50%, but from what I saw he was at 62% back in Nov. (Roughly what I posted)

...

In answering multiple responses to my post, here goes...

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

Interesting interpretations, mojo. I don't know that you can necessarily extrapolate approval numbers to make statements about America's political leanings. For instance, there are a whole slew of liberal reasons to strongly disapprove of Obama's performance. Perhaps if you found data that corrected for political affiliation your interpretation would have more credibility.

I'm sorry if I over stepped my bounds, but I think the numbers I posted were relevant.

Barry ran on a lot of things that were different from the status quo of 02' to 08'. And your mention of liberal disapproval, I'm sure correlates to things such as Gitmo still being open, Iraq still being an issue, and from what I at best guess is an escalation in Afghanistan?

I don't know what my political affiliation is, I'm sure it would be safe to label it republican as I am not down with what most of the dems do. Like I said the Repubes, didn't offer anything, and I was always told you can't talk shit if you do not cast a vote, so I did.

The only thing I was mostly pressing with my last post with those recent poll numbers, I think fairly state things. Yes there was a massive shift in favor between the parties starting in 06' and culminating in 08'. I would just ask you to honestly look at the numbers i presented.

Barack won with a shift from the center based on his claims for change. The numbers I pulled which I hope are independent as they are gallop (seriously aren't shifting me) are clearly showing a strong disapproval with how he proceeded from his election. Maybe I'm arguing semantics, or maybe I'm missing your point. But without having to link some polls, or editorials, or websites, I know that a lot of people are feeling disappointed, and more so perhaps those who get the lime light are feeling pissed off. Perhaps I should silence my opinions until the midterms so as not to agitate somebody?

filtherton · 05-03-2010, 04:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei

The only thing I was mostly pressing with my last post with those recent poll numbers, I think fairly state things. Yes there was a massive shift in favor between the parties starting in 06' and culminating in 08'. I would just ask you to honestly look at the numbers i presented.

Barack won with a shift from the center based on his claims for change. The numbers I pulled which I hope are independent as they are gallop (seriously aren't shifting me) are clearly showing a strong disapproval with how he proceeded from his election. Maybe I'm arguing semantics, or maybe I'm missing your point. But without having to link some polls, or editorials, or websites, I know that a lot of people are feeling disappointed, and more so perhaps those who get the lime light are feeling pissed off. Perhaps I should silence my opinions until the midterms so as not to agitate somebody?

I'm not questioning the validity of the data, I'm questioning the way you've interwoven it with a fairly subjective narrative about an America that may or may not actually exist. You can't really draw the conclusions you draw from the data you presented without more data. Despite what certain folks might want you to believe, Obama's solidly centrist. There are just as many progressive reasons to dislike him as there are conservative ones (the difference between the two being that the progressive reasons are actually grounded more in reality than hyperbolic scare tactics). That doesn't mean that the country will go overwhelmingly right this November.

Besides, Obama isn't even up for election this year. Why would you expect that his poll numbers indicate anything significant about upcoming Congressional elections? You should focus on Congress' numbers, but beyond that you should focus on the numbers for individual congresspeople who are actually running for office, because while most people hate congress, far fewer people actually hate their own congressperson.

Mojo_PeiPei · 05-03-2010, 04:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by filtherton

I'm not questioning the validity of the data, I'm questioning the way you've interwoven it with a fairly subjective narrative about an America that may or may not actually exist. You can't really draw the conclusions you draw from the data you presented without more data. Despite what certain folks might want you to believe, Obama's solidly centrist. There are just as many progressive reasons to dislike him as there are conservative ones (the difference between the two being that the progressive reasons are actually grounded more in reality than hyperbolic scare tactics). That doesn't mean that the country will go overwhelmingly right this November.

Besides, Obama isn't even up for election this year. Why would you expect that his poll numbers indicate anything significant about upcoming Congressional elections? You should focus on Congress' numbers, but beyond that you should focus on the numbers for individual congresspeople who are actually running for office, because while most people hate congress, far fewer people actually hate their own congressperson.

Maybe I overstated my position. But all things I read and hear make it fairly clear that even though Barry isn't up for re-election, 2010 midterms is a referendum on him and the democratic party as it is the first election since hope and change were elected to office and the democrats were given a green light with their majorities in congress.

dippin · 05-03-2010, 08:40 AM

The democrats will lose a lot of seats this november, but it has very little to do with being right wing or left wing or whatever.

First, historically, the party of the president always tends to lose seats the first midterm election it faces.

Second, the main reason for satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the ruling party is basically economic conditions. If you made a graph of presidential approval and employment rates, they'd virtually overlap, regardless of who is in power.

Mojo_PeiPei · 05-03-2010, 04:51 PM

So change is constant, but things remain the same Dippin?

I'm not asking that to be smarmy, honest question. I was pre-kindergarten for all of Reagen, and 2nd grade when Clinton was elected, so outside of the latter Clinton years I have no idea how divisive (or non-divisive) the political climate was. But I would be curious if some older members here might be able to compare Reagan/Bush I/Clinton to Shrub/Barry and the current feelings out there.

dippin · 05-03-2010, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei

So change is constant, but things remain the same Dippin?

I'm not asking that to be smarmy, honest question. I was pre-kindergarten for all of Reagen, and 2nd grade when Clinton was elected, so outside of the latter Clinton years I have no idea how divisive (or non-divisive) the political climate was. But I would be curious if some older members here might be able to compare Reagan/Bush I/Clinton to Shrub/Barry and the current feelings out there.

No, it's more that the sort of grand narratives of the elections are seldom true. These supposed big swings to the left or to the right have a lot less to do with left or right and a lot more to do with reacting to the economic condition.

If the economy keeps it's recovery pace, unemployment should start getting back to normal levels next year, and then Obama will experience a bounce back in popularity, and it won't be because people are suddenly leftist again.

Seaver · 05-03-2010, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Look at current poll numbers and tell me the state of the republican party. For as much as I'm sure everyone on TFP hates them and labels them, the "tea party" are definitively doing solid work for the republicans as much as they claim they are independently affiliated. Oh and wait for November, early prediction I know, but for some reason me thinks that 2010 will balance out the aberration(s) that was 06' & 08'.

Read more: http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/tilted-...#ixzz0mvZOv1nh

This bullshit is why I'm no longer identifying, nor voting for, Republicans for the first time.... ever.

You won't win any semblance of a majority until the teabaggers stop eating it's own, tell the racists to STFU and go back home, and get rid of the stupid politicians who pander to the baggers and let the Big Party Intelligencia (which gave GOP a majority in the first place) back at the helm.

FuglyStick · 05-03-2010, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seaver

You won't win any semblance of a majority until the teabaggers stop eating it's own, tell the racists to STFU and go back home, and get rid of the stupid politicians who pander to the baggers and let the Big Party Intelligencia (which gave GOP a majority in the first place) back at the helm.

Amen. The shame is rational conservatives have been tossed out into the cold, ostracized by a party that stands for nothing anymore except "we're not them".

Wes Mantooth · 05-03-2010, 11:00 PM

I've got to agree as well Seaver. I actually find myself in agreement with the Republicans on a lot of issues, but I just can't vote for this clusterfuck they try to pass off as a party. For every idea I agree with there are about a dozen that just make me shake my head in disbelief, most of which emanates from the fringe elements of the party. If the GOP really wants to right the ship and take the country back they need to start purging themselves of the fringe elements or at the very least stop pushing them as the face of the party. Embracing instead the mainstream, level headed and quite frankly sane aspects of their own party will go a long way in cementing the votes of swing voters. Moderates and independents, who are so important in swinging elections will only accept so much "crazy" before they turn away for good and view the Dems as the new "lesser of two evils". It may already be happening.

Honestly the Republican party is like a really hot girl with way to much baggage, sure the sex is fantastic but once its over and you actually have to talk to her you find out she's nuttier then nut store built entirely out of nuts and you realize the sex just isn't worth it.

04-30-2010, 11:29 AM	#3 (permalink)
Wes Mantooth Junkie Location: Tennessee	I've thought the political system here in the US has been broken for decades, if not longer. The major issue, in my opinion, is both political parties catering so much to their own base that they've lost the ability to view anything from the middle, where I'd wager (without searching around to back this up) the majority of Americans probably sit. In other words most people are shoehorning themselves into one side or the other but really not being satisfied with either and are left feeling disappointed in the govt they've elected. I think moves like this will become more and more common over the next decade or two as more people begin to seek out and vote for 3rd party candidates in a backlash of sorts against myopic, lock step politicians/parties more interested in the party line then whats right for the country. __________________ “My god I must have missed it...its hell down here!”

04-30-2010, 11:47 AM	#4 (permalink)
Mojo_PeiPei Kiss of Death Location: Perpetual wind and sorrow	This isn't some major doomsday breakdown in the Republican ranks. This is merely some donkey who couldn't secure his parties nomination so he's going the next best route not named democrat. Look at current poll numbers and tell me the state of the republican party. For as much as I'm sure everyone on TFP hates them and labels them, the "tea party" are definitively doing solid work for the republicans as much as they claim they are independently affiliated. Oh and wait for November, early prediction I know, but for some reason me thinks that 2010 will balance out the aberration(s) that was 06' & 08'. __________________ To win a war you must serve no master but your ambition. Last edited by Mojo_PeiPei; 04-30-2010 at 11:52 AM..

04-30-2010, 05:19 PM	#5 (permalink)
FuglyStick WHEEEE! Whee! Whee! WHEEEE! Location: Southern Illinois	"Aberration"? So if a republican/conservative isn't in office, it's an "aberration"? This is the kind of thinking that makes the whole "take our country back" mantra sound so ignorant. Listen closely, conservatives--it's not your country. It's OUR country, conservatives and liberals alike. You represent a portion of it--a minority portion, if the elections of '08 are any kind of gauge. I swear to god, I have no desire whatsoever to try to understand the point-of-view of someone stupid enough to insinuate "if it ain't conservative, it's un-American". Oh, and Crist is just another political whore cut from the Lieberman cloth. __________________ AZIZ! LIGHT!

05-01-2010, 03:54 PM	#7 (permalink)
FuglyStick WHEEEE! Whee! Whee! WHEEEE! Location: Southern Illinois	Yeah, the political system will be fine in two years, regardless of the Chicken Little contingent. __________________ AZIZ! LIGHT!

05-02-2010, 07:44 AM	#11 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	i basically agree with mojo about crist (!) but see the possible downsides quite differently. i think these moves expose the center to a defeat from the right. this didn't work out so well in earlier times and other places for the center-right which confronted a (neo-)fascist movement and underestimated it. and i don't see the republicans as the teabagger party: i see a power struggle going that involves different patronage systems (the deep pockets) who are trying to shape ways to get the right around the giant steaming pile of poo that is the legacy of the bush people. which you cannot pretend is not present. moves like crists are indications of how that struggle is being perceived in different areas of the country. in fla, it appears that the far right has enough momentum to send the sane right fleeing into---well where?---no organization no money no chance, right? we'll see. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

05-02-2010, 02:00 PM	#15 (permalink)
filtherton Junkie Location: In the land of ice and snow.	Interesting interpretations, mojo. I don't know that you can necessarily extrapolate approval numbers to make statements about America's political leanings. For instance, there are a whole slew of liberal reasons to strongly disapprove of Obama's performance. Perhaps if you found data that corrected for political affiliation your interpretation would have more credibility.

05-03-2010, 08:40 AM	#20 (permalink)
dippin Crazy, indeed Location: the ether	The democrats will lose a lot of seats this november, but it has very little to do with being right wing or left wing or whatever. First, historically, the party of the president always tends to lose seats the first midterm election it faces. Second, the main reason for satisfaction/dissatisfaction with the ruling party is basically economic conditions. If you made a graph of presidential approval and employment rates, they'd virtually overlap, regardless of who is in power.

05-03-2010, 04:51 PM	#21 (permalink)
Mojo_PeiPei Kiss of Death Location: Perpetual wind and sorrow	So change is constant, but things remain the same Dippin? I'm not asking that to be smarmy, honest question. I was pre-kindergarten for all of Reagen, and 2nd grade when Clinton was elected, so outside of the latter Clinton years I have no idea how divisive (or non-divisive) the political climate was. But I would be curious if some older members here might be able to compare Reagan/Bush I/Clinton to Shrub/Barry and the current feelings out there. __________________ To win a war you must serve no master but your ambition.

05-03-2010, 11:00 PM	#25 (permalink)
Wes Mantooth Junkie Location: Tennessee	I've got to agree as well Seaver. I actually find myself in agreement with the Republicans on a lot of issues, but I just can't vote for this clusterfuck they try to pass off as a party. For every idea I agree with there are about a dozen that just make me shake my head in disbelief, most of which emanates from the fringe elements of the party. If the GOP really wants to right the ship and take the country back they need to start purging themselves of the fringe elements or at the very least stop pushing them as the face of the party. Embracing instead the mainstream, level headed and quite frankly sane aspects of their own party will go a long way in cementing the votes of swing voters. Moderates and independents, who are so important in swinging elections will only accept so much "crazy" before they turn away for good and view the Dems as the new "lesser of two evils". It may already be happening. Honestly the Republican party is like a really hot girl with way to much baggage, sure the sex is fantastic but once its over and you actually have to talk to her you find out she's nuttier then nut store built entirely out of nuts and you realize the sex just isn't worth it. __________________ “My god I must have missed it...its hell down here!”