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Old 05-02-2010, 02:15 PM   #16 (permalink)
dc_dux
 
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Location: Washington DC
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei View Post
Aberration as in the political culture had predominantly swung Right of center, especially in regards to congress, since 94'. Then you get 08' when the Obama starts running, and everyone gets all "hopey and changey" (I'm sure people will state I'm a huge Palin fan), and the Dems take a solid majority as a result of the republicans being inept, unpopular war/lame duck president, and just basically not offering anything to vote for.

And 2 short years later Barry's popularity numbers have seen him take the biggest term loss in 50 years (Barack Obama sees worst poll rating drop in 50 years - Telegraph), where currently his Presidential approval index rating is at -9 (30% strongly approve, 39% strongly disapprove. Overall the man is below what I would assume is the margin of error (or right at it) at 48% approval v. 51% disapproval. (Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports).

The democratic party numbers as a whole are at an 18 year low, where you now have the republicans ahead by 1% (42% v. 41%). And most importantly, there is a massive shift in approval amongst independent voters where between Nov 08' and June 09' they had a 47% approval rating of democrats, which has since dropped considerably to 30%. Although admittedly at the same time independents really haven't picked up any love for the GOP with a mere 1% increase in the same time frame.(Democratic Party Image Drops to Record Low)

Again to sum, aberration as in the shift to voting sharply for democrats, whereas later this year you will for sure see, if not a correction which evens everything out, a shift back right, which will nullify democratic congressional power in both houses.
Gallup compares Obama's job approval rating with past presidents....and he stands up pretty well.

For example:
Obama, April 19-25, 2010 - 50% approval
Reagan, April 22-26, 1982 - 43% approval
Clinton, April 22-24, 1994 - 48% approval

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Pr...al-Center.aspx

Filtheron is correct. If you look below the surface of the polls, a statistically significant portion of the dissatisfaction with the Democrats in Congress is coming from the left, upset that the Congressional agenda is not liberal enough.

And while the Democrats in Congress approval numbers are lowest in recent years, they still top Republican numbers in most polls.

Job approval - Congressional Democrats
Job approval - Congressional Republicans

In the longer term, the demographics favor the Democrats, given that the profile of the Republican party is older, whiter, and male (much like those who say they support the Tea Party movement).

Unless the Republican party becomes less socially conservative, it will continue to alienate women and, even more so, minorities. In another 25-30 years, the majority of the population in the US will be minorities.
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