Yakk

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference

A 95/5 split in the Black vote, a 30/70 in the non-Black vote (includes Hispanic, Asian, White), together with Black voters having the same turnout as the non-Black members of the state (30% registered produces 30% of voters), places McCains advantage in Georgia at ... 1%.

If you instead presume a historical turnout of Black voters (20-25%), you end up with a 7% McCain edge in Georgia, which is what current polls are showing.

Currently, in early voting, 40% of voters are Black in Georgia.

Has the Obama surge begun? Nearly 40 percent of early votes cast by African-Americans | Political Insider | ajc.com

So, ratbastid, care to offer me long odds?

Now, note that if Obama takes Georgia, Obama probably won't _need_ Georgia. In short, given the current polling numbers over the USA, McCain is toast. It would take a swing towards the Republicans for Obaman to be in trouble, electoral college wise.

And if such a swing occurs, Georgia falls out of play.

So, in a sense, this possibility is irrelevant. It is still interesting. :-)

Secondly, the Senate. There is a somewhat decent chance that a Georgia (R) senator can be turfed out this cycle. If so... if you don't want the Republicans to have a filibuster minority in the Senate...

But, I'm serious about it. If you think GA is out of play, what kind of odds you offering?

__________________
Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.

grumpyolddude

Since 1972, I've voted "for" a candidate twice... maybe. I've always held deep seated aversion to one of the candidates. That's true this cycle, as well, with the exception that, this time, I feel very positive about my choice.

__________________
"Regret can be a harder pill to swallow than failure .With failure you at least know you gave it a chance..." David Howard

Skutch

For Obama. I don't agree with everything he says, but he's the better choice for the country at this partuclar time. It also freaks me out how everytime Mccain tries to raise one of his stumpy little arms it looks like he's doing a 'heil hitler'.

DEERE

McCain isn't the best candidate the party could have picked, but he has served his country, and put a conservative as his running mate. She really is the one to watch, she will be at the top of the ticket in 2012, no matter who wins this round. My concerns with Obama are his hate for this country, trashing it when he can, doesn't show any promise of any fiscal reform or responsibilty, ( nor has the Bush Admin.), McCain at this point is the lesser of the 2 evils.

abaya

What are your sources for this observation about Obama?

__________________
And think not you can direct the course of Love;
for Love, if it finds you worthy, directs your course.
--Khalil Gibran