Quote:
Originally Posted by ratbastid
See, if you weren't in GA, this would be tragic. GA is not in play by even the most blue-optimistic analyst. If you were up here in NC, I'd be driving your ass to the polling place to register you TODAY.
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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: In Georgia, Small Improvements in Black Voter Participation May Make Big Difference
A 95/5 split in the Black vote, a 30/70 in the non-Black vote (includes Hispanic, Asian, White), together with Black voters having the same turnout as the non-Black members of the state (30% registered produces 30% of voters), places McCains advantage in Georgia at ... 1%.
If you instead presume a historical turnout of Black voters (20-25%), you end up with a 7% McCain edge in Georgia, which is what current polls are showing.
Currently, in early voting, 40% of voters are Black in Georgia.
Has the Obama surge begun? Nearly 40 percent of early votes cast by African-Americans | Political Insider | ajc.com
So, ratbastid, care to offer me long odds?
Now, note that if Obama takes Georgia, Obama probably won't _need_ Georgia. In short, given the current polling numbers over the USA, McCain is toast. It would take a swing towards the Republicans for Obaman to be in trouble, electoral college wise.
And if such a swing occurs, Georgia falls out of play.
So, in a sense, this possibility is irrelevant. It is still interesting. :-)
Secondly, the Senate. There is a somewhat decent chance that a Georgia (R) senator can be turfed out this cycle. If so... if you don't want the Republicans to have a filibuster minority in the Senate...
But, I'm serious about it. If you think GA is out of play, what kind of odds you offering?
