2006 Midterm Elections - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 04:16 PM

The 2006 midterm elections have the potential for a course change similar to 1994. The article below identifies specific races to be watched during this election cycle, as well as vulnerabilities in both parties. I am curious as to how your state candidates are fairing and what election outcomes you anticipate.

Truth Out Link

Quote:

Handful of Races May Tip Control of Congress
By Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post

Monday 06 February 2006

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Rick Santorum (R) has been running behind his challenger for months. In Montana, Sen. Conrad Burns (R), linked to the Jack Abramoff scandal, is on the defensive. In Ohio, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) is struggling to overcome a toxic environment of scandals that has tarnished the state Republican Party.

Not since 1994 has the party in power - in this case the Republicans - faced such a discouraging landscape in a midterm election. President Bush is weaker than he was just a year ago, a majority of voters in recent polls have signaled their desire for a change in direction, and Democrats outpoll Republicans on which party voters think is more capable of handling the country's biggest problems.

The result is a midterm already headed toward what appears to be an inevitable conclusion: Democrats are poised to gain seats in the House and in the Senate for the first time since 2000. The difference between modest gains (a few seats in the Senate and fewer than 10 in the House) and significant gains (half a dozen in the Senate and well more than a dozen in the House) is where the battle for control of Congress will be fought.

The contest begins with Republicans holding 231 House seats and Democrats holding 201, with one Democrat-leaning independent and two vacancies, split between the parties. Democrats need to gain 15 seats to dethrone the GOP majority. In the Senate, Republicans hold 55 seats to the Democrats' 44, with one Democrat-leaning independent. Democrats need six more seats to take power.

What makes the year ahead compelling is the tension between two powerful factors: the broader political environment plainly favors Democrats, but the on-the-ground realities of many races give Republicans an advantage as they seek to preserve their majorities.

History dictates a certain modesty about predictions. Early in 1994, few foresaw the size of the Republican landslide-in-the-making. By November, the anti-incumbent mood overwhelmed even well-prepared candidates. If the public mood deteriorates further this year, Republicans could be swamped; if not, the GOP could be adequately equipped to wage trench warfare state by state and district by district and leave Washington's current balance of power intact.

At this point, the biggest challenge facing the Democrats is the narrow size of the battlefield. To win control of the House or Senate, Democrats must either capture the overwhelming percentage of genuinely competitive contests or find a way to put more races "in play" than is the case now.

Redistricting after the 2000 census left most House districts safely in the hands of one party or another. In 2004, just 32 districts were won with less than 55 percent of the vote - giving incumbents a grip on power said Rhodes Cook, an independent analyst.

Jim Jordan, a Democratic strategist and former executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the odds strongly favor gains by the Democrats but not necessarily Democratic takeovers. "From almost every standpoint - the national political environment, the state political environments, recruiting, retention, fundraising - Democratic candidates are in exceedingly strong shape," he said. "Because of the map, a flip in either chamber is significantly harder, but you can certainly see how it's done."

Republicans and Democrats have adopted contrasting strategies in the race for the House. Democrats hope to nationalize the elections around the issues of corruption and dissatisfaction with Bush. Republicans want their candidates to run strictly local races. "Incumbents don't get beat because there's a bad national environment," said Carl Forti, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

But Joe Gaylord, top political lieutenant to Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) during the 1994 takeover, said Republicans should not underestimate the impact of national tides. "If you have mechanics without message, you have no motivation," he said. "The danger is in a bad year, as the Democrats would remember from 1994, is that you have supporters who stay home."

Party operatives devoted much of 2005 to fundraising and candidate recruitment, with the political climate helping Democrats in both areas. Democratic strategists said Bush's weakness helped attract a number of top-tier candidates, while Democratic campaign committees, particularly the DSCC, outperformed expectations on the fundraising front.

The DSCC ended last year with about $15 million more in the bank than the NRSC. On the House side, the NRCC raised $22 million more than its Democratic counterpart, but ended the year with just $4 million more in its campaign coffers. Looming over all of these financial calculations is the sizable $28.5 million cash edge the Republican National Committee has over the Democratic National Committee, which could wipe out other Democratic fundraising successes in 2005.

If there is a wave that carries Democrats to power in the Senate, it must begin in Democratic strongholds of the East, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, before sweeping west through such traditionally GOP-leaning states as Montana, Ohio, Missouri and Arizona. Democrats are most optimistic about defeating Republican incumbents in the first four of these half-dozen states. Beating the incumbents in the other two looks more difficult.

Republicans hope to insulate themselves from expected losses by targeting two of the Democrats' three open seats - Maryland and Minnesota - and are talking up their chances against three Democratic incumbents: Sens. Robert C. Byrd (W.Va.), Robert Menendez (N.J.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.).

The marquee Senate contest this year is in Pennsylvania, where Santorum is being challenged in his bid for a third term by state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D). Santorum's high-profile conservatism combined with Bush's flagging numbers in the Democratic-leaning state have given Casey a clear edge in polls the past six months. But Casey has yet to define himself as a Senate candidate, preferring to stay away from hot-button issues and focus on Santorum.

In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee (R) faces a two-front battle. He will face off against Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, who is running as a populist outsider, in the Sept. 12 GOP primary. Should he advance to the general election, Chafee will face one of two Democrats: former state attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse (D), the current front-runner for his party's nomination, or Secretary of State Matt Brown.

Republican strategists are more concerned about Chafee's ability to win the primary than the general election. One of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, Chafee must win over a significant portion of his party's conservative base to defeat Laffey in a primary that is open only to registered Republicans and independents. Most strategists say any Republican but Chafee would be hard-pressed to win the general election in a heavily Democratic state.

Two other Republican senators appear to be in real trouble at the moment, as two different scandals echo through the election year.

In Montana, Burns has been hurt by reports detailing his financial and staff ties to disgraced lobbyist Abramoff. Democrats have already run three ads hitting Burns on the scandal. Burns has responded with a commercial insisting that Abramoff never influenced him. Republican argue that Burns is ramping up his campaign now and dismiss chatter about his potential retirement.

Nevertheless, the scandal publicity has dampened Burns's reelection prospects. He holds narrow leads over state Auditor John Morrison and state Sen. Jon Tester, the two Democrats seeking to unseat him in November.

DeWine, on the other hand, is struggling in his reelection race because of GOP scandals in the Buckeye State, which have scuffed the Republican brand in Ohio even though DeWine is not personally implicated. Outgoing Gov. Bob Taft (R) was convicted of a misdemeanor offense last year for his role in the scandals, and his approval ratings are now below 20 percent.

Not all is gloomy for DeWine, however, as Democrats seem headed toward a nasty May primary that could leave the opposition drained. That contest pits Rep. Sherrod Brown against Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett, who excited liberal bloggers last year with a narrower-than-expected loss in a congressional special election.

Even if Democrats defeated those four vulnerable Republicans, they would have to beat two somewhat less vulnerable Republicans, Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl and Missouri Sen. James M. Talent, to pick up the six seats needed for control. Or they would have to beat one of the two and count on Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. (D) winning the Tennessee open seat vacated by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

At this point estimates of the number of genuinely competitive House races ranges from a low of 25 or 30 to as high as 40 in the most optimistic Democratic scenarios. Democrats' best opportunities will come in Republican-held open seats, with the three best prospects, according to both parties, in Arizona's 8th District, Colorado's 7th District and Iowa's 1st District.

But Republicans say they have opportunities to pick up seats in Ohio's 6th and 13th districts, both of which are being vacated by Democratic members seeking statewide office.

Given recent trends, in which incumbent reelection rates have hovered around 95 percent in the House, it is no easy task to beat a sitting member of Congress. Thanks to the Abramoff scandal, however, Democrats have two golden opportunities to oust embattled incumbents in Ohio and Texas.

Former House majority leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), who, in addition to his connections to Abramoff, is currently under indictment by an Austin grand jury, finds himself in what promises to be a close race against former representative Nick Lampson (D). Former Republican representative Steve Stockman's independent candidacy is another complicating factor for DeLay.

Ohio Rep. Robert W. Ney (R) appears to be at the center of the pay-to-play schemes of Abramoff and has been informed by federal investigators that he may be indicted. Ney has pledged to run regardless but is trailing his two little-known Democratic opponents in internal GOP surveys.

Indiana is another place to watch as Republican Reps. Michael E. Sodrel and John N. Hostettler both face extremely competitive Democratic challenges in districts that favor GOPers on the presidential level. Sodrel faces a rematch against Baron Hill (D), the incumbent he narrowly ousted in 2004. Hostettler - who makes little effort to raise money and forswears political consultants in favor of a local network of conservative activists - is being challenged by Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D).

Among Democratic incumbents, Republican House strategists see Reps. John Barrow (Ga.), Melissa L. Bean (Ill.), Leonard L. Boswell (Iowa), Chet Edwards (Tex.) and Jim Marshall (Ga.) as beatable.

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 04:28 PM

Washington State, like many others, gives the incumbent the advantage so I don't anticipate any changes in our congressional representatives.

Sen. Marie Cantwell (D) is being challenged, but I believe she will succeed in being reelected. Her campaign war chest is significantly greater than any of her challengers.

Quote:

Maria Cantwell (D)* - (Campaign Site)

Mark Wilson (D) - Businessman, USMC Veteran, '04 Green Nominee & '02 Congressional Candidate

Brad Klippert (R) - Police Officer, Minister, Businessman, National Guard Officer & '04 Candidate

Mike McGavick (R) - Ex-Insurance Corporation CEO & Ex-Congressional Aide

Linda Evans Parlette (R) - State Sen., Pharmacist & Cherry Orchardist

Bernard "Bern" Haggerty (Green) - Attorney & '02 Congressional Nominee

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 04:29 PM

I want to hear from Pan, because Ohio should have everyone's attention.

pan6467 · 02-06-2006, 04:51 PM

Awwww shucks she singled me out, she likes me, she truly likes me.

In Ohio my heart belongs to Brown, Sherrod is a damned good and honest man. He was our state history's youngest Secretary of State, he was the first ever to use driver registration to get voters registered, and politically, he votes his conscience and fights damned hard for those who elect him.

(He's actually from my hometown, and I have loved this man politically since the 80's. He is a name to watch.)

That said, I don't know much about Hackett. I know Hackett has some union support which is tearing the base apart in that area as he is not that pro-union, meanwhile Brown is extremely pro-union. Hackett, I believe sadly, is a wannabe GOP Neo-con in sheeps clothing, but that is just my impression.

It'll be very hard for Brown, who voted against the war, to beat a war hero in Ohio, but his past and his charisma should do it.

As for Dewine, he's been attacked by the GOP and I'm surprised they haven't pushed a candidate against him. He's a decent man, but he's attached very closely to Voinovich (his mentor in some ways) and if the Cincy and western parts of the state don't come out in big numbers he's gone.

Of course given the scandals of the last election, the true votes may not matter. In which case, if it is a close race and the GOP wins and there's some "discrepancy" again. But if that were to happen, I think Ohioans would really rebel and start screaming loud enough to be heard.

Ohio's a unique state and a pivotal state, but we're the best state in many ways we set the trends the rest of the nation follows.

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 05:01 PM

'Course I do sweetie. But ya gotta admit, Ohio plays rough when it comes to politics.

pan6467 · 02-06-2006, 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

'Course I do sweetie. But ya gotta admit, Ohio plays rough when it comes to politics.

Ohio is a very weird state we're like Sybil. We have the classic liberals up here and then we have Neo-cons down south Cicny way and in between we have the free thinkers who get ignored by the parties but are the true deciding factors. And they are the hardest to pin party onto, because most of them vote with their consciences and hearts.

I love Ohio, I love the people and sometimes I truly think it's a curse.

samcol · 02-06-2006, 05:13 PM

All signs point to Democrats picking up seats, but the GOP has the old Diebold trick up its sleeves. Should be interesting. Actually though, I hope the houses are become so deadlocked that they can't pass anymore legislation for two years, that would be great.

As for me, I won't be voting for any incumbents if I even bother to vote.

Ustwo · 02-06-2006, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by samcol

All signs point to Democrats picking up seats, but the GOP has the old Diebold trick up its sleeves. Should be interesting. Actually though, I hope the houses are become so deadlocked that they can't pass anymore legislation for two years, that would be great.

As for me, I won't be voting for any incumbents if I even bother to vote.

Haha so if the democrats win its a great thing but if republicans win we must have cheated

If dems do win can we put the tinfoil hats away about diebold, or will it just be a plan within a plan where we are hoping you will now trust the machines and then later we can switch a major election!

shakran · 02-06-2006, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo

Haha so if the democrats win its a great thing but if republicans win we must have cheated

If dems do win can we put the tinfoil hats away about diebold, or will it just be a plan within a plan where we are hoping you will now trust the machines and then later we can switch a major election!

I dunno. You tell me. You don't find it remotely troubling that the maker of the machines promised to deliver a hotly contested state to Bush and, despite exit polls indicating otherwise, Bush won the state?

Hell break that one down. You don't find it remotely troublling that the maker of the machines promised to deliver the state to any specific candidate?

dksuddeth · 02-06-2006, 05:53 PM

In all actuality, it won't matter which way the midterms go whether the GOP retains control and gains more or lose control to the dems. Either way, the majority of americans are going to get farked by either the far left or the far right. It really kind of sucks and the only saving grace I see is for the country to just finally split apart at the seams and we can get our civil war on.

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 06:01 PM

Party foul called on samcol and ustwo.

Indiana and Illinois both have big chips on the table in the next election. What is the local, inside news in your state and what do you expect the outcome to be?

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dksuddeth

In all actuality, it won't matter which way the midterms go whether the GOP retains control and gains more or lose control to the dems. Either way, the majority of americans are going to get farked by either the far left or the far right. It really kind of sucks and the only saving grace I see is for the country to just finally split apart at the seams and we can get our civil war on.

Suddeth, you're about to see the speaker ousted. Couple that with the long avoided investigation into DeLay's redistricting shennanigans, and Texas gets *very* interesting in 2006. Good Texans have always known how to kick some political ass.

samcol · 02-06-2006, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

Party foul called on samcol and ustwo.

Indiana and Illinois both have big chips on the table in the next election. What is the local, inside news in your state and what do you expect the outcome to be?

Well I dunno, I my choices are Souder for house and Lugar for senate with no opposition. I can't stand either of these guys so I'll have to write in myself I guess.

As for the state government, anyone who voted to give our highways to Spain lost my vote.

pan6467 · 02-06-2006, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shakran

I dunno. You tell me. You don't find it remotely troubling that the maker of the machines promised to deliver a hotly contested state to Bush and, despite exit polls indicating otherwise, Bush won the state?

Hell break that one down. You don't find it remotely troublling that the maker of the machines promised to deliver the state to any specific candidate?

Along with Dem districts where Bush's polling numbers were down having more votes than voters and Bush winning those districts, even though polls had him losing those by more than 5%? Or the fact GOP Blackwell threw out 1,000's upon 1000's of voter registrations?

So yes, there are serious questions right now about ANY legitimacy of the voting in Ohio.

And as I said if it is a close race and DEM districts again show more votes than voters and the polls had the Dem winning in that district...... there will be no doubt in my mind. Nor should there be in anyone else's.

I don't think anyone who does not live in Ohio or has no true knowledge of what goes on in this state should be accusing anyone living here seeing it, reading about it, hearing about it, living it, as being paranoid or conspiritorial.

Especially when it is a proven fact the majority of the GOP heirarchy was involved with Noe and Abramhoff and to this day, even with evidence proving otherwise, they claim innocence and not really knowing Noe. Yet, they all took money from him, they all elected him to be in the office and to invest the Workers Comp monies. Yet, we're supposed to trust these people to run fair elections?

We shall see, we shall see.

djtestudo · 02-06-2006, 07:57 PM

The Maryland senate race is going to be interesting this year, because the Republicans are running the lieutenent governer, Michael Steele, who is also the highest-elected African-American in state history, while the Democrats are running either a congressman, Ben Cardin, or Kwese Mfume, former NAACP president.

Cardin has the major party support, so if Mfume wins in a primary, it will be a hell of a race. Of course, I'm rooting for Steele

irateplatypus · 02-06-2006, 09:07 PM

i detect a measurable amount of dissatifaction with the GOP... but i don't think that necessarily translates into big gains for the dems. i really don't think many people see them as a viable alternative.

i predict a stalemate.

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by irateplatypus

i detect a measurable amount of dissatifaction with the GOP... but i don't think that necessarily translates into big gains for the dems. i really don't think many people see them as a viable alternative.

i predict a stalemate.

That's fine. Tell us about your state.

Elphaba · 02-06-2006, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djtestudo

The Maryland senate race is going to be interesting this year, because the Republicans are running the lieutenent governer, Michael Steele, who is also the highest-elected African-American in state history, while the Democrats are running either a congressman, Ben Cardin, or Kwese Mfume, former NAACP president.

Cardin has the major party support, so if Mfume wins in a primary, it will be a hell of a race. Of course, I'm rooting for Steele

Whoa. How does Mfume challenge a popular lieutenent governer? Does he have state credentials beyond NAACP? I've not heard of Cardin as yet.

Hardknock · 02-06-2006, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

Washington State, like many others, gives the incumbent the advantage so I don't anticipate any changes in our congressional representatives.

Sen. Marie Cantwell (D) is being challenged, but I believe she will succeed in being reelected. Her campaign war chest is significantly greater than any of her challengers.

Ms. Maria Cantwell is walking on thin ice with me right now. But in the end, I'll still vote for her because we need to keep as many seats in the senate as we can.

scout · 02-07-2006, 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by samcol

.....

As for the state government, anyone who voted to give our highways to Spain lost my vote.

I don't think Lugar is running anymore is he? Didn't he announce a few years ago that this was his last term and he was going to retire?

I agree, anyone who voted for this new highway plan the Governor concocted won't receive a vote from me. Seventy five years is a looooong time to receive tolls from any road. Neither will I be voting for anyone that voted for this stupid time change. I have to hand it to Mitch Daniels, he's screwed up more in a few short months than any Democrat governor we've had in the last 20 years.

The_Jazz · 02-07-2006, 05:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

Indiana and Illinois both have big chips on the table in the next election. What is the local, inside news in your state and what do you expect the outcome to be?

Here in Illinois the Republican party is still trying to recover from the 2004 senatorial race where it pretty much disintegrated when Ryan backed out and the party drafted Alan Keyes to get obliterated by Obama. As of now, the Deomocrats hold every major state office except for one, which means that they're almost certainly going to loose some control. There's going to be a really hot race for Henry Hyde's old House seat now that he's retiring. That district used to be one of the biggest Republican strongholds in the country, but there's been a shift in the demographics in the last 10 or 15 years, and there's a decent chance that a Democrat could get it. They're already talking about big money being spent in that primary - one of the Republicans is already well over $1M in funds. It should be lilke the race that Kirk won up in Northbrook in 2000. Most of the rest of the seats are pretty safe for incumbents.

dksuddeth · 02-07-2006, 07:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

Suddeth, you're about to see the speaker ousted. Couple that with the long avoided investigation into DeLay's redistricting shennanigans, and Texas gets *very* interesting in 2006. Good Texans have always known how to kick some political ass.

Texas is GOP country and will be for a very long time unless the dems shift their views. In the districts where any GOP politician is having issue, that district is just going to elect another GOP. Texas is about as GOP partisan as northern Illinois is Dem partisan.

dksuddeth · 02-07-2006, 07:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardknock

Ms. Maria Cantwell is walking on thin ice with me right now. But in the end, I'll still vote for her because we need to keep as many seats in the senate as we can.

and my point is well proven by this statement. The Left vs. Right is only going to get worse because the far sides are entrenched and most of the 'independents' have no spine to say 'fuck off' and vote for a 3rd party or independent.

RAGEAngel9 · 02-07-2006, 09:50 AM

For Illinois, I'm more interested in the next gov race. Rod is a moron and people are starting to notice, but as stated above the Illinois GOP is in shambles (althought they are starting to pick up the pieces).
Should be interesting in the next couple years.

Elphaba · 02-07-2006, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardknock

Ms. Maria Cantwell is walking on thin ice with me right now. But in the end, I'll still vote for her because we need to keep as many seats in the senate as we can.

What's up with Cantwell? I know she won some points for "saving" Puget Sound from the Alaska oil senator. She returned the donations from Abramoff's Indian clients and there doesn't appear to be any stink attached to her about it. Other than that, I know very little about her.

Ustwo · 02-07-2006, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RAGEAngel9

For Illinois, I'm more interested in the next gov race. Rod is a moron and people are starting to notice, but as stated above the Illinois GOP is in shambles (althought they are starting to pick up the pieces).
Should be interesting in the next couple years.

Hehe being from Illinois I want to meet whoever decided to let Allen Keys run

and beat them with a dead carp. Maybe even a live one.

The_Jazz · 02-07-2006, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo

Hehe being from Illinois I want to meet whoever decided to let Allen Keys run

and beat them with a dead carp. Maybe even a live one.

One of the scary things is that with all of the strikes against him, he still got about 20% of the vote. A landslide by any stretch of the imagination, but there were still 1 in 5 that voted for him after he made some statements so outlandish that even the theocons thought he was nuts.

Blago is going to have an uphill fight to stay in his job, but he's still the odd's on favorite for now. There's a civil war being silently fought in the Republican trenches here, and the Chicago Democratic machine is taking every advantage that they can find. The state election in 2002 was one of the biggest ass-spankings anywhere at any time. Obviously, there's no way that the Democrats can have that kind of success again, but the state government is going to be controlled by them for a good time yet to come just from the residuals of that landslide.

NCB · 02-07-2006, 11:57 AM

There wont be any change in NC. Dole is up for reelection and will win again. The House races will end up the same as they are now.

Ustwo · 02-07-2006, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Jazz

One of the scary things is that with all of the strikes against him, he still got about 20% of the vote. A landslide by any stretch of the imagination, but there were still 1 in 5 that voted for him after he made some statements so outlandish that even the theocons thought he was nuts.

Oh how I recall staring at that ballot. I just passed, but don't think they were votes for Keys as much as votes against Obama. Left wing socialist hack, right wing nutjob, some went for the nutjob.

The_Jazz · 02-07-2006, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ustwo

Oh how I recall staring at that ballot. I just passed, but don't think they were votes for Keys as much as votes against Obama. Left wing socialist hack, right wing nutjob, some went for the nutjob.

I wouldn't go so far as to call Obama a "hack", although I think that the rest of the characterisation is at least somewhat close to the truth. The socialists probably wouldn't claim him as one of their own, but he definitely shares some of their thoughts on several subjects.

As for Keyes, well he just scares me. He always struck me as one of those guys that would call for a "return of responsible gunplay to our once-proud schools" or banning red crayons because they could encourage children to draw pictures of Satan.

Obama's pretty much a mortal lock to win reelection in 2008 unless he does something incredibly stupid. He's got the center and the left sewn up. The only truely vulnerable Democrat that I see in the state right now is the governor, and if Daley decides that he can work with Rod, Rod will stay in. But if Da Mayor owes too many favors to Rod's father-in-law, the kid's gone.

Ustwo · 02-07-2006, 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Jazz

Obama's pretty much a mortal lock to win reelection in 2008 unless he does something incredibly stupid. He's got the center and the left sewn up. The only truely vulnerable Democrat that I see in the state right now is the governor, and if Daley decides that he can work with Rod, Rod will stay in. But if Da Mayor owes too many favors to Rod's father-in-law, the kid's gone.

He may have the center locked but only if he doesn't stick his head out too far. Most really have no clue about him, but the more he is in the press, the less he will be able to hide.

samcol · 02-07-2006, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scout

I don't think Lugar is running anymore is he? Didn't he announce a few years ago that this was his last term and he was going to retire?

I agree, anyone who voted for this new highway plan the Governor concocted won't receive a vote from me. Seventy five years is a looooong time to receive tolls from any road. Neither will I be voting for anyone that voted for this stupid time change. I have to hand it to Mitch Daniels, he's screwed up more in a few short months than any Democrat governor we've had in the last 20 years.

Not sure about Lugar actually.

I'm gonna have to agree with you about the situation in our state. Don't forget about closing multiple BMV's branches either, which is a huge inconvinience. As far as time zones, it's an either love it or hate it thing. For me in the NE corner working in Ohio and Michigan it worked out for the better, but for much of the state it really sucks. I guess they should just split it up by region maybe?

scout · 02-07-2006, 03:55 PM

Ya know I really don't care that we [Indiana] switched to daylight savings time but for fuck's sake get the whole state on the same time. This has become more of a conglamorated hodge-podge [read large string of cusswords here] than anything else.

Closing the license branches and inconveniencing everyone to save a few hundred thousand when we are hundreds of millions in the red made no freekin' sense either.

I doubt "my man Mitch" will serve more than one term as Governor. If he gets reelected it will surprise me.

irateplatypus · 02-07-2006, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elphaba

That's fine. Tell us about your state.

my post was on-topic, no need to get snippy.

alpha phi · 02-07-2006, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NCB

There wont be any change in NC. Dole is up for reelection and will win again. The House races will end up the same as they are now.

Elizabeth Dole was elected in 2002 she is not up for
re-election untill 2008
In 2008 I will see who is the best canidate
so far Mrs. Dole has done a good job
Who ever runs against her will have a HUGE up hill battle.

My Representative is Charles Taylor
Charles Taylor
he is a lifelong, multi-generational politician and a criminal
He owns a credit union that is under constant investigation
He owned a bank in Russia that went into default, then
used the ethics committee to hide behind.
He was taken to court by the county after refusing to
pay property tax on a tree farm he owns, he lost

He is being challenged by a ex football player
that I know very little about, other than a five minute interview
on the local channel. and his campaign page
Heath Shuler
in comparison my cat is more electable than both
this one will go down to people who choose R or D
I will be voting Libertarian just to try to get them that 3%
for campiagn funding.

Edit in looking around I found another challenger
Michael Morgan
So far I like this guy I'll have to find out more about him

his gun control policy
My concept of gun control is being able to hit your target, preferably while using either hand

Sounds more like a libertarian running on the democrat ticket
I love these mountain people

Elphaba · 02-07-2006, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by irateplatypus

my post was on-topic, no need to get snippy.

Not being snippy at all, sweet platypus. I have no idea which state you live in, so I don't know if you are speaking generally or offering an opinion local to your state. I am asking for local/state opinion regarding the prospects of the midterm elections.

Elphaba · 02-07-2006, 07:51 PM

Thanks for the great background on your state candidates, Alpha.

Elphaba · 02-15-2006, 03:10 PM

Ohio democrats have forced a change. Any ideas on how this will play out?

Truth Out

Quote:

With Hackett Departure, Old Politics Win
The Associated Press

Wednesday 15 February 2006

Washington - With a shove from party leaders, Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett abruptly quit a key Senate race in Ohio and further exposed a disconnect between the Democratic establishment and Internet-fueled challengers.

The political novice withdrew under intense pressure from party leaders in Washington, clearing the field for Rep. Sherrod Brown - a 30-year veteran of Democratic politics with more than $2.5 million in the bank.

Phil Singer, spokesman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Hackett's decision to quit gives the party a better chance of beating two-term GOP Sen. Mike DeWine in November. Hackett drew his strongest support from Democratic activists outside Washington and Ohio who donated money and time via the Internet, including many who considered his military record an asset against DeWine.

"Hackett would have probably won this seat," David Nir, one of three founders of the liberal Web site SwingStateProject.com, contended in a blog posting Tuesday. "It's much harder for me to envision the 'northeastern Ohio liberal' Sherrod Brown breaking the 49-percent barrier, particularly with DeWine moving to the center."

Not everyone agreed in the world of Weblogs, or blogs, but there was plenty of anger and many threatened not to help Brown. Matt Stoller, a leading voice on the liberal blog MyDD.com who wasn't involved in the Ohio Senate race, said Hackett represented a failure by bloggers to compete.

"Establishment Democrats are still more powerful than we are, by orders of magnitude," Stoller wrote. "While we can put tens of thousands into a race, they can dwarf that with millions."

Hackett said the party's decision "highlights the challenge that's still there" to close the gap between Washington and the party's grassroots.

In 2004 bloggers helped former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean leapfrog establishment candidates in the months leading up to the Democratic presidential primaries, but he quickly fell once the voting started.

Last month, Sen. John Kerry made a point of posting a message on the liberal Weblog DailyKos to assure bloggers that he and Sen. Edward Kennedy would push to block a Senate vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito. They couldn't get enough support to mount a filibuster.

On Tuesday, soon after Hackett said he was quitting politics, the largest liberal Internet organization, MoveOn.org, notified its 3.3 million members of a new strategy: working to oust conservative Democratic incumbents.

Another grassroots group that backed Hackett, Democratic war veterans, expressed outrage as well.

"Hackett brought credibility on the No. 1 issue facing the nation - the war in Iraq," said Jon Soltz, an Iraq combat veteran and executive director of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Political Action Committee. "The Democratic Party loses credibility on that issue because he is no longer running, and because they had a hand in his decision."

Hackett said he had ended his 11-month political career. It reached its zenith last summer when his House campaign in a conservative Cincinnati-area district raised $850,000 in two months, $500,000 of it through blogs.

Republicans contended the Democrats hurt themselves.

"The Democrat party bosses dumped a candidate with mainstream vote-getting potential for one of their most liberal members," said Dan Ronayne, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "In doing so, the Democrats have settled on a candidate who is fundamentally out of touch with the mainstream values of Ohioans. Happy Valentine's Day, indeed."

Republicans are not immune to the grassroots-vs-establishment split. President Bush's friend and former personal lawyer, Harriet Miers, was forced to withdraw as a Supreme Court nominee this year after an uprising by conservative activists.

Hardknock · 02-16-2006, 12:51 AM

As for my home state Alaska:

Lisa Murkowski never deserved her seat in the first place. Can you say nepotism?

Hardknock · 02-16-2006, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hardknock

Ms. Maria Cantwell is walking on thin ice with me right now. But in the end, I'll still vote for her because we need to keep as many seats in the senate as we can.

I also retract this statemtnt. Sen. Cantwell did fight to deny the neo-cons from drilling for oil in ANWR in Alaska which I wholeheartly support. Minor statements she mase that irritated me can't compare to her efforts to save ANWR.

02-06-2006, 04:51 PM	#4 (permalink)
pan6467 Lennonite Priest Location: Mansfield, Ohio USA	Awwww shucks she singled me out, she likes me, she truly likes me. In Ohio my heart belongs to Brown, Sherrod is a damned good and honest man. He was our state history's youngest Secretary of State, he was the first ever to use driver registration to get voters registered, and politically, he votes his conscience and fights damned hard for those who elect him. (He's actually from my hometown, and I have loved this man politically since the 80's. He is a name to watch.) That said, I don't know much about Hackett. I know Hackett has some union support which is tearing the base apart in that area as he is not that pro-union, meanwhile Brown is extremely pro-union. Hackett, I believe sadly, is a wannabe GOP Neo-con in sheeps clothing, but that is just my impression. It'll be very hard for Brown, who voted against the war, to beat a war hero in Ohio, but his past and his charisma should do it. As for Dewine, he's been attacked by the GOP and I'm surprised they haven't pushed a candidate against him. He's a decent man, but he's attached very closely to Voinovich (his mentor in some ways) and if the Cincy and western parts of the state don't come out in big numbers he's gone. Of course given the scandals of the last election, the true votes may not matter. In which case, if it is a close race and the GOP wins and there's some "discrepancy" again. But if that were to happen, I think Ohioans would really rebel and start screaming loud enough to be heard. Ohio's a unique state and a pivotal state, but we're the best state in many ways we set the trends the rest of the nation follows. __________________ I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?" Last edited by pan6467; 02-07-2006 at 12:09 AM..

02-06-2006, 05:53 PM	#10 (permalink)
dksuddeth Junkie Location: bedford, tx	In all actuality, it won't matter which way the midterms go whether the GOP retains control and gains more or lose control to the dems. Either way, the majority of americans are going to get farked by either the far left or the far right. It really kind of sucks and the only saving grace I see is for the country to just finally split apart at the seams and we can get our civil war on. __________________ "no amount of force can control a free man, a man whose mind is free. No, not the rack, not fission bombs, not anything. You cannot conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him."

02-06-2006, 07:57 PM	#15 (permalink)
djtestudo Baltimoron Location: Beeeeeautiful Bel Air, MD	The Maryland senate race is going to be interesting this year, because the Republicans are running the lieutenent governer, Michael Steele, who is also the highest-elected African-American in state history, while the Democrats are running either a congressman, Ben Cardin, or Kwese Mfume, former NAACP president. Cardin has the major party support, so if Mfume wins in a primary, it will be a hell of a race. Of course, I'm rooting for Steele __________________ "Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen." --Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun

02-06-2006, 09:07 PM	#16 (permalink)
irateplatypus can't help but laugh Location: dar al-harb	i detect a measurable amount of dissatifaction with the GOP... but i don't think that necessarily translates into big gains for the dems. i really don't think many people see them as a viable alternative. i predict a stalemate. __________________ If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves. ~ Winston Churchill

02-06-2006, 04:29 PM	#3 (permalink)
Elphaba Deja Moo Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA	I want to hear from Pan, because Ohio should have everyone's attention.

02-06-2006, 05:01 PM	#5 (permalink)
Elphaba Deja Moo Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA	'Course I do sweetie. But ya gotta admit, Ohio plays rough when it comes to politics.

02-06-2006, 05:13 PM	#7 (permalink)
samcol Junkie Location: Indiana	All signs point to Democrats picking up seats, but the GOP has the old Diebold trick up its sleeves. Should be interesting. Actually though, I hope the houses are become so deadlocked that they can't pass anymore legislation for two years, that would be great. As for me, I won't be voting for any incumbents if I even bother to vote.

02-06-2006, 06:01 PM	#11 (permalink)
Elphaba Deja Moo Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA	Party foul called on samcol and ustwo. Indiana and Illinois both have big chips on the table in the next election. What is the local, inside news in your state and what do you expect the outcome to be?

02-07-2006, 09:50 AM	#24 (permalink)
RAGEAngel9 Insane Location: Vermont	For Illinois, I'm more interested in the next gov race. Rod is a moron and people are starting to notice, but as stated above the Illinois GOP is in shambles (althought they are starting to pick up the pieces). Should be interesting in the next couple years.

02-07-2006, 03:55 PM	#33 (permalink)
scout Psycho	Ya know I really don't care that we [Indiana] switched to daylight savings time but for fuck's sake get the whole state on the same time. This has become more of a conglamorated hodge-podge [read large string of cusswords here] than anything else. Closing the license branches and inconveniencing everyone to save a few hundred thousand when we are hundreds of millions in the red made no freekin' sense either. I doubt "my man Mitch" will serve more than one term as Governor. If he gets reelected it will surprise me.

02-07-2006, 07:51 PM	#37 (permalink)
Elphaba Deja Moo Location: Olympic Peninsula, WA	Thanks for the great background on your state candidates, Alpha.

02-16-2006, 12:51 AM	#39 (permalink)
Hardknock Republican slayer Location: WA	As for my home state Alaska: Lisa Murkowski never deserved her seat in the first place. Can you say nepotism?