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05-21-2007, 11:02 PM
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#1 (permalink) |
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Black Belt in Slacking Off
Location: Portland Or-ah-gun
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How many of you are risk-adverse?
I had a discussion with some friends and couldn't believe their answers to the following question. While I thought the answer was easy, multiple people disagreed with me. What are your thoughts?
Would you choose... 1) $200 guaranteed? 2) 10% chance of getting $2500?
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Slacking off with style since 1981. Last edited by Sensei; 05-21-2007 at 11:07 PM.. |
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05-22-2007, 05:51 AM
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#2 (permalink) |
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I'll ask when I'm ready....
Location: Firmly in the middle....
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If the numbers where higher, I bet the answer would change.
Personally, for me, $200 isn't that big of a deal, but $2500 would put a smile on my face. So yeah, I'd probably go with the 10% chance. Now if it were $20,000 vs 10% chance at $250,000, then I'd pick the $20K in a heartbeat.
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"No laws, no matter how rigidly enforced, can protect a person from their own stupidity." -Me- "Some people are like Slinkies..... They are not really good for anything, but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down a flight of stairs." -Unknown- DAMMIT! -Jack Bauer- |
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05-22-2007, 09:38 PM
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#4 (permalink) |
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Black Belt in Slacking Off
Location: Portland Or-ah-gun
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I'm also of the camp that "I could live without the $200 so I'll take the choice with the higher expected value." I assumed everyone had the same rationale as me but this is clearly not the case.
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Slacking off with style since 1981. |
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05-23-2007, 07:13 PM
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#6 (permalink) |
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Dumb all over...a little ugly on the side
Location: In the room where the giant fire puffer works, and the torture never stops.
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on the day before payday...I'll take the $200
day after payday...I'll take the risk
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He's the best, of course, of all the worst. Some wrong been done, he done it first. -fz I jus' want ta thank you...falettinme...be mice elf...agin... |
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05-23-2007, 09:03 PM
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#7 (permalink) |
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Wise-ass Latino
Location: Pretoria (Tshwane), RSA
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You should change it up. If you don't get the $2500, you still walk away with no less than what you started with. If you have to choose a 10% chance with the added risk of a 90% chance of losing the same amount, that's a real risk.
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Cameron originally envisioned the Terminator as a small, unremarkable man, giving it the ability to blend in more easily. As a result, his first choice for the part was Lance Henriksen. O. J. Simpson was on the shortlist but Cameron did not think that such a nice guy could be a ruthless killer. -From the Collector's Edition DVD of The Terminator |
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05-24-2007, 12:24 PM
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#8 (permalink) |
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Upright
Location: Germany
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I would take $200 because I only have $25 a month, so $200 would be lots of money. The risk to get nothing with a 90% chance is way to high. But I agree with your opinions, it just depends on how much you have anyway. If it was $20 vs 10% chance to get $250 or if I had more money (eg $250 a month) I would take the 10% chance.
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05-25-2007, 06:13 AM
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#9 (permalink) |
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Devoted
Donor
Location: New England
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Statistics says take the chance: the "expected value" of the gamble is $250 versus the guaranteed $200. However, I'd still go with the guaranteed money. I'm extraordinarily risk-adverse.
Quasi: Your proposed bet would have an expected value of -$2,000; I don't think anyone would take that bet.
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I can't read your signature. Sorry. |
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05-25-2007, 07:10 AM
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#10 (permalink) |
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Indifferent to anti-matter
Location: Tucson, AZ
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200 bucks vs. a 90% chance of getting nothing? Give me the 200.
Even if there were only a 30% chance of getting nothing, I'd still go with the sure-thing 200.
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If puns were sausages, this would be the wurst. |
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