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I would take $200 because I only have $25 a month, so $200 would be lots of money. The risk to get nothing with a 90% chance is way to high. But I agree with your opinions, it just depends on how much you have anyway. If it was $20 vs 10% chance to get $250 or if I had more money (eg $250 a month) I would take the 10% chance.
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