CDs & DVDs to be gone in 5 years... - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Halx · 09-03-2003, 02:13 PM

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...ia_piracy_dc_1

Quote:

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading but the battlefield will be littered with casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as physical means of distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester Research study released Tuesday.

The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts to streaming and downloading.

Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999. But it will be due more so to efforts by the studios, cable companies and telcos to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like video-on-demand, Forrester researcher Josh Bernoff said.

"The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but eventually I think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start going away because people will have access to whatever they want right there at their television set."

While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years from 10 million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households, the association that represents disc makers does not believe that output will slow.

In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn. estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2008.

CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in the next five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by Forrester.

"The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president Charles Van Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't think it will be because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be consumers buying discs."

Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual distribution could be more gradual.

"People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part of the entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James Goss said. "The studios would be just as happy to sell something in a streamed form or a hard disc form. But once you download it to your computer, you're probably going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd end up with the same optical storage issues."

The Forrester report lists a number of winners and losers from the expected changes.

Among the beneficiaries are Internet portals (news - web sites) that enable on-demand media services, broadband suppliers such as cable and telcos and the creative community, which would profit from the removal of manufacturing and distribution costs and constraints. AOL Time Warner's decision to sell off its disc manufacturing plants was said to be proof of this trend.

Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have control of emerging means of distribution like VOD, Forrester said. Such retailers as Tower Records and Blockbuster will certainly feel the pain as sales and rentals shrink, though they may be able to sustain business by associating themselves with newer on-demand services. Major retailers including Wal-Mart and Best Buy are expected to survive by shifting CD and DVD floor space to sales of media devices.

The shift could also present several opportunities for companies if they move quickly.

Television companies have about three more years to release shows on DVD. By 2006, it is estimated that negotiations will start to focus on making content available on cable and Internet "basic VOD" tiers.

Movies studios are also urged to press the development of Internet-based alternatives to cable VOD for movies-on-demand.

"On-demand media services have the potential to turn pirate losses into gains even as they break the disc-based shackles that now hold back entertainment," the report concludes.

I dont think it will be so quick, and I definately don't think the industry will ever solve their problems with pirating. I'm personally hoping for an upgrade as far as physical media goes.

dr_clocker · 09-03-2003, 02:21 PM

I dont think physical storage devices for media will go away. They might get smaller and store more, but not go away.

Its like money, do we need actual dollar bills, when most people write checks and use credit cards, right?? No we dont need them, but there is still a purpose for it.

Lebell · 09-03-2003, 02:27 PM

"Looks like I'll have to buy the White Album again..."

Nisses · 09-03-2003, 02:36 PM

As long as they are going to charge for every time somebody requests a song, there are going to be people that will find a way to request it once and add it for free to their "librairy"

it only takes a program that dumps the stream to a processable medium like a part of your HD, and you can then rework it into a format that can stay at your disposal all the time...

Seems so far they are just running around in circles. Might be a better idea to abolish the whole system, set up a new tax in every country and use that tax to supply a "wage" for every band that makes music. Hell, offer the song as a free download on an official site & keep track of how many people download it. You can just compare the numbers and give more money to the more popular songs/bands.

Just an idea. Either way, their new proposal will probably buy them a few years, but then they'll be back where they are today

tinfoil · 09-03-2003, 02:48 PM

Naw. Not a chance. I like having a real, physical product.

Downloads aren't real enough.

i_t_man · 09-03-2003, 03:00 PM

I was just reading this article before coming here and I think they're being a little optimistic. I too believe that by the time my son is an adult, you'll be able to turn on your t.v. and select any movie ever made (for a monthly subscription of course). But 5 years? No way. When broadband first hit the scene, they predicted that everyone would have it within 5 years, we're not even close.

I can see a future when our personal storage needs will be gone. From a technology point of view, why do you really need that piece of plastic? Right now you need it because that's the only way to reliably deliver your music, I think that's going to change, but not in 5 years.

JcL · 09-03-2003, 03:05 PM

Quote:

"Looks like I'll have to buy the White Album again..."

Sums up my feelings exactly.

The_Dude · 09-03-2003, 03:06 PM

I think that flash cards will take up a lot more of the market in the future years.

But, CD ROM's and DVD's will also have a good share of the market.

Hard8s · 09-03-2003, 04:00 PM

When CD's first came out I had read an article that said they would be gone in 10-15 yrs because of the new technology that the US was keeping off our shores. THe new Technology was the digital storage chips. These were already in production when CD's first hit our shores. However the US withheld them so that CD's could flood the market. Then in 10 years they would introduce the chips that played digital quality sound, took up less space, didn't get scratched, etc. Now these are hitting the market, and just like predicted are going to phase out CD's and DVD's. WHo knows what Technology is being withheld now that is going to kill the chips? I see it all as one big marketing gimmick. Bring out CD's, charge a lot, then down the road start bringing out something better and charge a little more for those, even though they are cheaper to make, last longer, etc. Wait for these to take hold and skyrocket in usage. Then when everyone is used to these. bring out hte new tech that will make cd's look like vinyl.

tinfoil · 09-03-2003, 04:43 PM

Let's not forget that any new format will have DRM measures up the wazoo.

That's bad, m'kay.

Nefir · 09-03-2003, 04:54 PM

Ditto on the DRM. By the time we reach the kind of reality described in the article, our CPUs and OSes will have plenty of DRM protection hard-wired in, and will simply blow up if you try to play your old "unapproved" CD/DVD.

I personally enjoy having my own tangible copy that I purchased, standing on a bookshelf somewhere, even if I never touch it again.

boden11 · 09-03-2003, 07:46 PM

pfft, they won't be gone in 5 yrs. that's such a joke, with tv's going the way of HighDef, it takes a BluRay disc (26 gigs?) just for 2 hrs of HD quality. Compare that with 2 hrs on DVD @ 4 gigs...which even in 5 years jumps in technology to increase bandwidth would still make it nearly impossible to stream a dvd with even the FASTEST equipment/internet connection. the fastest my provider even offers is like 1.5MBps which is like what ...around 187kb/sec at MAX (more like actual optimal conditions would be 150 and most people would see like 110-130) So a SINGLE SIDED, SINGLE LAYER dvd movie would take like what...8 seconds per meg at optimal, about 4200 megs on a DVD-5 (single layer) or 560 minutes for on average a 110 minute movie.

vide on demand my butt

it would take mebbe a 4MBps internet connection (4,000kbps) to make dvd on demand possible.

now of course u might say 'but wait, with compression u can take a movie to sayyy 1200 megs with divx or other algorithms' pfft....these things make the movie look terrible on large screen tvs. i've seen what a dvd originally at around 6 gigs transcoded to 4.3gbs looks like on a large screen HD tv...its HORRIBLE.

long story shit

its not gonna happen

Speed_Gibson · 09-03-2003, 08:55 PM

I still like vinyls personally...I have bought far more (used in excellent shape) LPs lately than CDs. Something like a 45 to 1 ratio off the top of my head.

YourNeverThere · 09-03-2003, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Halx

I dont think it will be so quick, and I definately don't think the industry will ever solve their problems with pirating. I'm personally hoping for an upgrade as far as physical media goes.

Quoted for correctness.
It will be slow, I'll always love hard copies, becuase I lost upwords of 9 megabites of mp3's when my nomad suddenly stopped working. I died inside that day.

rogue49 · 09-03-2003, 09:07 PM

Nope, people will always want their OWN.

Own home,
Own car,
Own shit

It's the American way.

WhoaitsZ · 09-03-2003, 09:58 PM

I can easily see hardware change shapes and mediums, but thinking cd and dvds will cease in five years is a bit ridiculous.

If memory serves me correctly almost every single media ‘sure things’ have died. Too many factors.

bulakbol master · 09-03-2003, 11:59 PM

As much as I like downloading stuff -- movies, music, et al [hope no one from the FBI is reading this], there something satisfying about owning something. Knowing that you worked hard for your money and spent it wisely on a nice physical product.

For example, I'm a HUGE Simpsons fan and although I've downloaded most of the episodes, I won't hesitate to run out and buy the DVDs when I go on vacation in the US. Same goes for Family Guy.

stonecurran · 09-04-2003, 12:14 AM

there making evrything ready at your finger tips. so we are gonna turn into impatient lazy pricks. ppl who just sit on the computer or in front of the tv and don't get out how. i'll be damned befor thats happens to me. nothings more satisfying than goin to the shop and physically buying the product.

GakFace · 09-04-2003, 12:41 AM

"HD crashed? But.. But.. I have $500 dollars of music on there! All gone!!!"

Fuck that! I want it on CD! (or DVD)

cradeg · 09-04-2003, 03:42 AM

ok i donwload all stuff ... then i need to safe it for future use so i will use a dvd+r (or something better) therefore i need them also in 5 years

ehehe

Macheath · 09-04-2003, 03:47 AM

Saying they go the way of vinyl implies that vinyl no longer exists at all. Yeah it definitely isn't mainstream but it does enjoy an entreched position in DJ and audiophile niche markets.

Like Speed_Gibson I enjoy my parents LP collection. It's the challenge of keeping it in good shape, finding good turntables and cartridges; good amplifiers and speakers. I also like the romantic notion of using a medium that is (relatively) low tech enough to never be DRMed up the ass.

Television and video didn't make the cinema extinct. CDs and DVDs will only die if the corporate mofos KILL them.

Gortexfogg · 09-04-2003, 07:25 AM

I'd hate to see the day come when all media is just files on our computers. I love going into music stores, looking for CDs, buying one randomly that might be cool. I also love album art. If music was all on computers, there would probably be no more album art. That would be a sad day...

DelayedReaction · 09-04-2003, 09:15 AM

I refuse to rent music. If I purchase something, I want it to be in a physical format that I can carry wherever I want.

And I don't think anyone is going to purchase hardware which deliberately prevents them from doing something they want. If a company does that, then another company will innovate something that works just as well without infringing on liberties.

Cynthetiq · 09-04-2003, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by tinfoil
Naw. Not a chance. I like having a real, physical product.

Downloads aren't real enough.

i like holding stuff... touching it... having it...maybe the next generation will "buy into" the etherial stuff... but not me.

rev_skarekroe · 09-04-2003, 09:43 AM

I'm still waiting for everyone to have flying cars and videophones, and all our meals in pill form.
Let's go people! My shiny silver unitard is getting eaten by moths!
sk

GSRIDER · 09-04-2003, 10:08 AM

As long as people "collect" There will always be CDs and DVD...

Hell I still buy vinyl whenever I get a chance. Many artist still release on the ol stuff. Normally a limited run but it's out there none the less.

Shauk · 09-04-2003, 10:32 AM

JBX · 09-04-2003, 11:03 AM

If you can see it or hear it on your computer, you can copy it and distribute it. Anyone that thinks otherwise is pissing in the wind. They should work on making it easier to buy, $$ price or have unique incentives, than download.

Akira · 09-04-2003, 04:34 PM

Nah DVD's won't go anywhere. Maybe CD's but not for a long time. DVD's will be around as long as their's video games and then there's Sony's BlueRay which holds a hell of alot of data. They'll be around for a while.

Vyk · 09-04-2003, 06:37 PM

Awesome! so in 5 years I'll be able to download streaming music directly to my cold-fusion-powered flying car's radio! I'm glad predictions about the future are so acurate.

sweeeeet.

Baldrick · 09-05-2003, 04:38 AM

I've been involved in the home video industry for over 10 years now, in sales and marketing. I've heard the media "cry wolf" so many times now, I simply turn a deaf ear to it.

When VHS first came out, theatres weren't going to last five years. When satellite first came out, cable wasn't going to last five years. When Pay Per View first came out, VHS wasn't going to last five years. Now with downloading and streaming, theatres and DVD won't last five years. These are just a couple of MANY such death knell's people have made about the entertainment industry over the last fifty years. New technology in the entertainment industry simply forces an evolution or maturing of the industry, it doesn't kill it.

I absolutely love the direction that our studio has taken over the last couple of years to solidify our "survival" during this maturing process. We really got into the cult cinema (horror, anime, sci-fi, foreign) DVD's, and lessened our relying on "mainstream" titles. It is also very important in this ever changing environment to focus on creating a collectible type product - using innovative and unique packaging, special features, audio and video quality, etc... In order to survive, a studio has to truly cater to the collector - a collector who insists on having the great packaging and special features that they can't get with streaming or downloading.

Tell the film fan who buys every Criterion DVD that is released, that they have to now download or stream the film if they want to watch it. You'll have a geek revolt on your hands!

DVD is here for many, many years to come, and will only be replaced by a better method of storing data...

a2k · 09-05-2003, 07:34 AM

I kinda buy it. We're holding on to CD's mostly for nostolgia and legacy of the players we've all bought. CD players will not disappear, just as tape players haven't, but in order for the music industry to compete with P2P, they've got to cut the costs of manufacturing, storing, and distributing their product out of their price. Otherwise, they will not ever be able to cut costs enough to compete. In the end, after fighting it for years, they're gonna force it on us. DRM is gonna have to be figured out into some sort of working model because the whole world can't go on swapping mp3's for free forever. I just hope that they improve the sound quality.

YzermanS19 · 09-05-2003, 07:39 AM

I'm not throwing away my DVD and CD players. People who want downloads can have them, and I do like mp3's but I dont prefer them so much.

quantumburnz · 09-05-2003, 07:45 AM

Ha, the music industry won't stop stuff like this. Downloading will always happen. It's too widespread. Also, yes, medium's may change, but it'll just be something else with the same basic idea. 1's and 0's, there'll always be a way to save them for yourself...

Cynthetiq · 09-05-2003, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Baldrick
I've been involved in the home video industry for over 10 years now, in sales and marketing. I've heard the media "cry wolf" so many times now, I simply turn a deaf ear to it.

When VHS first came out, theatres weren't going to last five years. When satellite first came out, cable wasn't going to last five years. When Pay Per View first came out, VHS wasn't going to last five years. Now with downloading and streaming, theatres and DVD won't last five years. These are just a couple of MANY such death knell's people have made about the entertainment industry over the last fifty years. New technology in the entertainment industry simply forces an evolution or maturing of the industry, it doesn't kill it.

I absolutely love the direction that our studio has taken over the last couple of years to solidify our "survival" during this maturing process. We really got into the cult cinema (horror, anime, sci-fi, foreign) DVD's, and lessened our relying on "mainstream" titles. It is also very important in this ever changing environment to focus on creating a collectible type product - using innovative and unique packaging, special features, audio and video quality, etc... In order to survive, a studio has to truly cater to the collector - a collector who insists on having the great packaging and special features that they can't get with streaming or downloading.

Tell the film fan who buys every Criterion DVD that is released, that they have to now download or stream the film if they want to watch it. You'll have a geek revolt on your hands!

DVD is here for many, many years to come, and will only be replaced by a better method of storing data...

the death knell to spur sales.... create a false sense of scarcity...

and my criterion DVDs you'd have to pry from my grubby fingers...

heyal256 · 09-05-2003, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by GSRIDER
As long as people "collect" There will always be CDs and DVD...

This is probably the best example of why CDs & DVDs (or the next generation of these formats) will survive. Downloads just aren't considered collectible.

Reminds me of the paperless office that all of us should be working in, this concept has led to MORE paper use because of people printing out e-mails, faxes, etc instead of leaving them in their "digital" form. There is just something about having there stuff on paper that makes it seem "real". This same concept is true here, putting the stuff on CDs and DVDs just make them seem more "real".

Esoteric · 09-05-2003, 07:13 PM

If the artists make better music and there are better movies to buy (besides a select few) then I'll buy.

filtherton · 09-05-2003, 09:32 PM

Tape cassettes are still in effect too, even though they were supposed to be extinct "soon" a long time ago. The idea that cd's will be gone in the span of a few years is silly when you consider the digital divide. There are billions of people in this world, millions in this country who don't have access to their own P.C., much less broadband. I doubt that by 2006 or even 2010 the amount of unwired will become so negligable that the industry could afford to ignore them.
The economics of the music industry are so inflated right now any way and have been for decades. P2P just puts the power back in our hands. I think multimillion dollar salaries for record execs will we gone before CDs will.

merkerguitars · 09-05-2003, 10:23 PM

thats bullshit....that won't happen a long time......streaming something dvd quality or to download still requires hard drive space...which alot of people don't have tons of.....plus people would have to learn it....most people like the ease of popping in a cd or dvd......plus every isp would have to upgrade and everybody would have to have broadband...we are far from it.

Cynthetiq · 09-06-2003, 05:15 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by merkerguitars
thats bullshit....that won't happen a long time......streaming something dvd quality or to download still requires hard drive space...which alot of people don't have tons of.....plus people would have to learn it....most people like the ease of popping in a cd or dvd......plus every isp would have to upgrade and everybody would have to have broadband...we are far from it.

space is cheap... 1 Tb is possible with just a few hundred dollars, 1 Pb which just 1 year ago was around US$1M is now around US$100,000.

Netflix delivers 4.5Gb in an envelope, so truly the post office is the most versitile ISP at the moment.

09-03-2003, 02:21 PM	#2 (permalink)
dr_clocker Insane Location: ND	I dont think physical storage devices for media will go away. They might get smaller and store more, but not go away. Its like money, do we need actual dollar bills, when most people write checks and use credit cards, right?? No we dont need them, but there is still a purpose for it. __________________ You cant help from growing old, but that doesnt mean you have to grow up.

09-03-2003, 02:27 PM	#3 (permalink)
Lebell Cracking the Whip Location: Sexymama's arms...	"Looks like I'll have to buy the White Album again..." __________________ "Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." – C. S. Lewis The ONLY sponsors we have are YOU! Please Donate!

09-03-2003, 02:36 PM	#4 (permalink)
Nisses Shade Location: Belgium	As long as they are going to charge for every time somebody requests a song, there are going to be people that will find a way to request it once and add it for free to their "librairy" it only takes a program that dumps the stream to a processable medium like a part of your HD, and you can then rework it into a format that can stay at your disposal all the time... Seems so far they are just running around in circles. Might be a better idea to abolish the whole system, set up a new tax in every country and use that tax to supply a "wage" for every band that makes music. Hell, offer the song as a free download on an official site & keep track of how many people download it. You can just compare the numbers and give more money to the more popular songs/bands. Just an idea. Either way, their new proposal will probably buy them a few years, but then they'll be back where they are today __________________ Moderation should be moderately moderated.

09-03-2003, 02:48 PM	#5 (permalink)
tinfoil Fucking Hostile Location: Springford, ON, Canada	Naw. Not a chance. I like having a real, physical product. Downloads aren't real enough. __________________ Get off your fuckin cross. We need the fuckin space to nail the next fool martyr.

09-03-2003, 03:06 PM	#8 (permalink)
The_Dude The GrandDaddy of them all! Location: Austin, TX	I think that flash cards will take up a lot more of the market in the future years. But, CD ROM's and DVD's will also have a good share of the market. __________________ "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Darrel K Royal

09-03-2003, 03:00 PM	#6 (permalink)
i_t_man Tilted Location: Seattle	I was just reading this article before coming here and I think they're being a little optimistic. I too believe that by the time my son is an adult, you'll be able to turn on your t.v. and select any movie ever made (for a monthly subscription of course). But 5 years? No way. When broadband first hit the scene, they predicted that everyone would have it within 5 years, we're not even close. I can see a future when our personal storage needs will be gone. From a technology point of view, why do you really need that piece of plastic? Right now you need it because that's the only way to reliably deliver your music, I think that's going to change, but not in 5 years.

09-03-2003, 04:00 PM	#9 (permalink)
Hard8s Addict Location: Wherever I am!	When CD's first came out I had read an article that said they would be gone in 10-15 yrs because of the new technology that the US was keeping off our shores. THe new Technology was the digital storage chips. These were already in production when CD's first hit our shores. However the US withheld them so that CD's could flood the market. Then in 10 years they would introduce the chips that played digital quality sound, took up less space, didn't get scratched, etc. Now these are hitting the market, and just like predicted are going to phase out CD's and DVD's. WHo knows what Technology is being withheld now that is going to kill the chips? I see it all as one big marketing gimmick. Bring out CD's, charge a lot, then down the road start bringing out something better and charge a little more for those, even though they are cheaper to make, last longer, etc. Wait for these to take hold and skyrocket in usage. Then when everyone is used to these. bring out hte new tech that will make cd's look like vinyl. __________________ If ignorance is bliss, then wipe this smile off my face!

09-03-2003, 04:43 PM	#10 (permalink)
tinfoil Fucking Hostile Location: Springford, ON, Canada	Let's not forget that any new format will have DRM measures up the wazoo. That's bad, m'kay. __________________ Get off your fuckin cross. We need the fuckin space to nail the next fool martyr.

09-03-2003, 04:54 PM	#11 (permalink)
Nefir Junkie Location: Louisville, KY	Ditto on the DRM. By the time we reach the kind of reality described in the article, our CPUs and OSes will have plenty of DRM protection hard-wired in, and will simply blow up if you try to play your old "unapproved" CD/DVD. I personally enjoy having my own tangible copy that I purchased, standing on a bookshelf somewhere, even if I never touch it again. __________________ You do not use a Macintosh, instead you use a Tandy Kompressor break your glowstick, Kompressor eat your candy Kompressor open jaws, Kompressor release ants Kompressor watch you scream, Because Kompressor does not dance Last edited by Nefir; 09-03-2003 at 04:57 PM..

09-03-2003, 07:46 PM	#12 (permalink)
boden11 Upright	pfft, they won't be gone in 5 yrs. that's such a joke, with tv's going the way of HighDef, it takes a BluRay disc (26 gigs?) just for 2 hrs of HD quality. Compare that with 2 hrs on DVD @ 4 gigs...which even in 5 years jumps in technology to increase bandwidth would still make it nearly impossible to stream a dvd with even the FASTEST equipment/internet connection. the fastest my provider even offers is like 1.5MBps which is like what ...around 187kb/sec at MAX (more like actual optimal conditions would be 150 and most people would see like 110-130) So a SINGLE SIDED, SINGLE LAYER dvd movie would take like what...8 seconds per meg at optimal, about 4200 megs on a DVD-5 (single layer) or 560 minutes for on average a 110 minute movie. vide on demand my butt it would take mebbe a 4MBps internet connection (4,000kbps) to make dvd on demand possible. now of course u might say 'but wait, with compression u can take a movie to sayyy 1200 megs with divx or other algorithms' pfft....these things make the movie look terrible on large screen tvs. i've seen what a dvd originally at around 6 gigs transcoded to 4.3gbs looks like on a large screen HD tv...its HORRIBLE. long story shit its not gonna happen

09-03-2003, 08:55 PM	#13 (permalink)
Speed_Gibson Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? Location: right here of course	I still like vinyls personally...I have bought far more (used in excellent shape) LPs lately than CDs. Something like a 45 to 1 ratio off the top of my head.

09-03-2003, 09:07 PM	#15 (permalink)
rogue49 Loser	Nope, people will always want their OWN. Own home, Own car, Own shit It's the American way.

09-03-2003, 09:58 PM	#16 (permalink)
WhoaitsZ Crazy Location: right behind you...	I can easily see hardware change shapes and mediums, but thinking cd and dvds will cease in five years is a bit ridiculous. If memory serves me correctly almost every single media ‘sure things’ have died. Too many factors.

09-03-2003, 11:59 PM	#17 (permalink)
bulakbol master Upright Location: Philippines	As much as I like downloading stuff -- movies, music, et al [hope no one from the FBI is reading this], there something satisfying about owning something. Knowing that you worked hard for your money and spent it wisely on a nice physical product. For example, I'm a HUGE Simpsons fan and although I've downloaded most of the episodes, I won't hesitate to run out and buy the DVDs when I go on vacation in the US. Same goes for Family Guy. __________________ "There is a theory that says whenever somebody figures out exactly what the universe is and why it is here, it will immediately vanish and be replaced by something even more unexplainable and bizarre. There is another theory that says this has already happened." -Douglas Adams

09-04-2003, 12:14 AM	#18 (permalink)
stonecurran Crazy Location: australia	there making evrything ready at your finger tips. so we are gonna turn into impatient lazy pricks. ppl who just sit on the computer or in front of the tv and don't get out how. i'll be damned befor thats happens to me. nothings more satisfying than goin to the shop and physically buying the product.

09-04-2003, 12:41 AM	#19 (permalink)
GakFace Go Ninja, Go Ninja Go!! Location: IN, USA	"HD crashed? But.. But.. I have $500 dollars of music on there! All gone!!!" Fuck that! I want it on CD! (or DVD) __________________ RoboBlaster: Welcome to the club! Not that I'm in the club. And there really isn'a a club in the first place. But if there was a club and if I was in it, I would definitely welcome you to it.

09-04-2003, 03:42 AM	#20 (permalink)
cradeg Insane Location: Austria	dont think so ok i donwload all stuff ... then i need to safe it for future use so i will use a dvd+r (or something better) therefore i need them also in 5 years ehehe __________________ *************************** For every human problem, there is a neat, simple solution; and it is always wrong. ****************************

09-04-2003, 03:47 AM	#21 (permalink)
Macheath Junkie Location: Sydney, Australia	Saying they go the way of vinyl implies that vinyl no longer exists at all. Yeah it definitely isn't mainstream but it does enjoy an entreched position in DJ and audiophile niche markets. Like Speed_Gibson I enjoy my parents LP collection. It's the challenge of keeping it in good shape, finding good turntables and cartridges; good amplifiers and speakers. I also like the romantic notion of using a medium that is (relatively) low tech enough to never be DRMed up the ass. Television and video didn't make the cinema extinct. CDs and DVDs will only die if the corporate mofos KILL them.

09-04-2003, 07:25 AM	#22 (permalink)
Gortexfogg I and I Location: Stillwater, OK	I'd hate to see the day come when all media is just files on our computers. I love going into music stores, looking for CDs, buying one randomly that might be cool. I also love album art. If music was all on computers, there would probably be no more album art. That would be a sad day...

09-04-2003, 09:15 AM	#23 (permalink)
DelayedReaction BFG Builder Location: University of Maryland	I refuse to rent music. If I purchase something, I want it to be in a physical format that I can carry wherever I want. And I don't think anyone is going to purchase hardware which deliberately prevents them from doing something they want. If a company does that, then another company will innovate something that works just as well without infringing on liberties. __________________ If ignorance is bliss, you must be having an orgasm.

09-04-2003, 09:43 AM	#25 (permalink)
rev_skarekroe Insane Location: Parts Unknown	I'm still waiting for everyone to have flying cars and videophones, and all our meals in pill form. Let's go people! My shiny silver unitard is getting eaten by moths! sk __________________ "If I could have one wish, as in the fairy tales, I would unmake my past, and rise like Lazarus and stand in sunlight and banish all the dark." D. Tibet

09-04-2003, 10:08 AM	#26 (permalink)
GSRIDER spurt king Location: Out of my mind	As long as people "collect" There will always be CDs and DVD... Hell I still buy vinyl whenever I get a chance. Many artist still release on the ol stuff. Normally a limited run but it's out there none the less. __________________ No signature at this time.

09-04-2003, 10:32 AM	#27 (permalink)
Shauk Confused Adult Location: Spokane, WA	yeah vinyl has a HUGE market still believe it or not.... want proof? just offa the top of my lists... USA http://www.satelliterecords.com http://www.planetxusa.com http://www.groovetech.com http://www.germantrance.com/ http://www.dancerecords.com http://www.throb.com http://www.eightballshop.com http://www.nrgmusic.com http://www.dmcrecords.com http://www.n-siderecords.com http://www.superdance.com http://www.tweekin.com http://www.anotherlevel.com UK http://www.bangingtunes.com http://www.recordstore.co.uk http://www.juno.co.uk http://www.chemical-records.co.uk http://www.promo-records-ltd.co.uk http://www.htfr.com/ http://www.hmv.co.uk http://www.replayrecords.com http://www.abovethesky.com/ Netherlands http://www.only-djs.com/ http://www.dancegrooves.com Canada http://www.releaserecords.com http://www.easternbloc.com http://www.playderecord.com http://www.thepitrecords.com http://www.djmr.com http://www.canadarecords.com http://www.theonlinerecordstore.com Norway http://www.hsrecords.no Germany http://www.overdose.de Not sure http://www.conzoom.com btw yes I am a DJ so :\ I say I spend about 3000$ a year on vinyl alone. I havent bought a cd in 2 years.

09-04-2003, 11:03 AM	#28 (permalink)
JBX Unfair and Imbalanced Location: Upstate, NY	If you can see it or hear it on your computer, you can copy it and distribute it. Anyone that thinks otherwise is pissing in the wind. They should work on making it easier to buy, $$ price or have unique incentives, than download. __________________ "Youth and Strength is no match for Age and Treachery"

09-04-2003, 04:34 PM	#29 (permalink)
Akira Crazy	Nah DVD's won't go anywhere. Maybe CD's but not for a long time. DVD's will be around as long as their's video games and then there's Sony's BlueRay which holds a hell of alot of data. They'll be around for a while. __________________ -signature

09-04-2003, 06:37 PM	#30 (permalink)
Vyk Insane Location: Dayton, Ohio	Awesome! so in 5 years I'll be able to download streaming music directly to my cold-fusion-powered flying car's radio! I'm glad predictions about the future are so acurate. sweeeeet. __________________ "Courage of the heart is very rare"

09-05-2003, 04:38 AM	#31 (permalink)
Baldrick We are everywhere... Location: Barrie, Ontario	I've been involved in the home video industry for over 10 years now, in sales and marketing. I've heard the media "cry wolf" so many times now, I simply turn a deaf ear to it. When VHS first came out, theatres weren't going to last five years. When satellite first came out, cable wasn't going to last five years. When Pay Per View first came out, VHS wasn't going to last five years. Now with downloading and streaming, theatres and DVD won't last five years. These are just a couple of MANY such death knell's people have made about the entertainment industry over the last fifty years. New technology in the entertainment industry simply forces an evolution or maturing of the industry, it doesn't kill it. I absolutely love the direction that our studio has taken over the last couple of years to solidify our "survival" during this maturing process. We really got into the cult cinema (horror, anime, sci-fi, foreign) DVD's, and lessened our relying on "mainstream" titles. It is also very important in this ever changing environment to focus on creating a collectible type product - using innovative and unique packaging, special features, audio and video quality, etc... In order to survive, a studio has to truly cater to the collector - a collector who insists on having the great packaging and special features that they can't get with streaming or downloading. Tell the film fan who buys every Criterion DVD that is released, that they have to now download or stream the film if they want to watch it. You'll have a geek revolt on your hands! DVD is here for many, many years to come, and will only be replaced by a better method of storing data... __________________ You can be young only once, but you can be immature for the rest of your life...

09-05-2003, 07:34 AM	#32 (permalink)
a2k Crazy Location: Seattle	I kinda buy it. We're holding on to CD's mostly for nostolgia and legacy of the players we've all bought. CD players will not disappear, just as tape players haven't, but in order for the music industry to compete with P2P, they've got to cut the costs of manufacturing, storing, and distributing their product out of their price. Otherwise, they will not ever be able to cut costs enough to compete. In the end, after fighting it for years, they're gonna force it on us. DRM is gonna have to be figured out into some sort of working model because the whole world can't go on swapping mp3's for free forever. I just hope that they improve the sound quality.

09-05-2003, 07:39 AM	#33 (permalink)
YzermanS19 not your typical god-fearing junkie Location: State of Confusion	I'm not throwing away my DVD and CD players. People who want downloads can have them, and I do like mp3's but I dont prefer them so much. __________________ the light that burns twice as bright burns half as long and you have burned so very, very brightly

09-05-2003, 07:45 AM	#34 (permalink)
quantumburnz Tilted Location: Tucson, AZ	Ha, the music industry won't stop stuff like this. Downloading will always happen. It's too widespread. Also, yes, medium's may change, but it'll just be something else with the same basic idea. 1's and 0's, there'll always be a way to save them for yourself... __________________ University of Arizona Tucson, AZ Computer Engineering

09-05-2003, 07:13 PM	#37 (permalink)
Esoteric Tired Location: Florida	If the artists make better music and there are better movies to buy (besides a select few) then I'll buy. __________________ From a head full of pressure rests the senses that I clutch Made a date with Divinity, but she wouldn't let me fuck I got touched by a hazy shaded, God help me change Caught a rush on the floor from the life in my veins

09-05-2003, 09:32 PM	#38 (permalink)
filtherton Junkie Location: In the land of ice and snow.	Tape cassettes are still in effect too, even though they were supposed to be extinct "soon" a long time ago. The idea that cd's will be gone in the span of a few years is silly when you consider the digital divide. There are billions of people in this world, millions in this country who don't have access to their own P.C., much less broadband. I doubt that by 2006 or even 2010 the amount of unwired will become so negligable that the industry could afford to ignore them. The economics of the music industry are so inflated right now any way and have been for decades. P2P just puts the power back in our hands. I think multimillion dollar salaries for record execs will we gone before CDs will.

09-05-2003, 10:23 PM	#39 (permalink)
merkerguitars Buffering......... Location: Wisconsin...	thats bullshit....that won't happen a long time......streaming something dvd quality or to download still requires hard drive space...which alot of people don't have tons of.....plus people would have to learn it....most people like the ease of popping in a cd or dvd......plus every isp would have to upgrade and everybody would have to have broadband...we are far from it. __________________ Donate now! Ask me How! Please use the search function it is your friend. Look at my mustang please feel free to comment! http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showthread.php?t=26985