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CDs & DVDs to be gone in 5 years...
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...ia_piracy_dc_1
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I dont think physical storage devices for media will go away. They might get smaller and store more, but not go away.
Its like money, do we need actual dollar bills, when most people write checks and use credit cards, right?? No we dont need them, but there is still a purpose for it. |
"Looks like I'll have to buy the White Album again..."
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As long as they are going to charge for every time somebody requests a song, there are going to be people that will find a way to request it once and add it for free to their "librairy"
it only takes a program that dumps the stream to a processable medium like a part of your HD, and you can then rework it into a format that can stay at your disposal all the time... Seems so far they are just running around in circles. Might be a better idea to abolish the whole system, set up a new tax in every country and use that tax to supply a "wage" for every band that makes music. Hell, offer the song as a free download on an official site & keep track of how many people download it. You can just compare the numbers and give more money to the more popular songs/bands. Just an idea. Either way, their new proposal will probably buy them a few years, but then they'll be back where they are today |
Naw. Not a chance. I like having a real, physical product.
Downloads aren't real enough. |
I was just reading this article before coming here and I think they're being a little optimistic. I too believe that by the time my son is an adult, you'll be able to turn on your t.v. and select any movie ever made (for a monthly subscription of course). But 5 years? No way. When broadband first hit the scene, they predicted that everyone would have it within 5 years, we're not even close.
I can see a future when our personal storage needs will be gone. From a technology point of view, why do you really need that piece of plastic? Right now you need it because that's the only way to reliably deliver your music, I think that's going to change, but not in 5 years. |
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I think that flash cards will take up a lot more of the market in the future years.
But, CD ROM's and DVD's will also have a good share of the market. |
When CD's first came out I had read an article that said they would be gone in 10-15 yrs because of the new technology that the US was keeping off our shores. THe new Technology was the digital storage chips. These were already in production when CD's first hit our shores. However the US withheld them so that CD's could flood the market. Then in 10 years they would introduce the chips that played digital quality sound, took up less space, didn't get scratched, etc. Now these are hitting the market, and just like predicted are going to phase out CD's and DVD's. WHo knows what Technology is being withheld now that is going to kill the chips? I see it all as one big marketing gimmick. Bring out CD's, charge a lot, then down the road start bringing out something better and charge a little more for those, even though they are cheaper to make, last longer, etc. Wait for these to take hold and skyrocket in usage. Then when everyone is used to these. bring out hte new tech that will make cd's look like vinyl.
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Let's not forget that any new format will have DRM measures up the wazoo.
That's bad, m'kay. |
Ditto on the DRM. By the time we reach the kind of reality described in the article, our CPUs and OSes will have plenty of DRM protection hard-wired in, and will simply blow up if you try to play your old "unapproved" CD/DVD. :D
I personally enjoy having my own tangible copy that I purchased, standing on a bookshelf somewhere, even if I never touch it again. |
pfft, they won't be gone in 5 yrs. that's such a joke, with tv's going the way of HighDef, it takes a BluRay disc (26 gigs?) just for 2 hrs of HD quality. Compare that with 2 hrs on DVD @ 4 gigs...which even in 5 years jumps in technology to increase bandwidth would still make it nearly impossible to stream a dvd with even the FASTEST equipment/internet connection. the fastest my provider even offers is like 1.5MBps which is like what ...around 187kb/sec at MAX (more like actual optimal conditions would be 150 and most people would see like 110-130) So a SINGLE SIDED, SINGLE LAYER dvd movie would take like what...8 seconds per meg at optimal, about 4200 megs on a DVD-5 (single layer) or 560 minutes for on average a 110 minute movie.
vide on demand my butt it would take mebbe a 4MBps internet connection (4,000kbps) to make dvd on demand possible. now of course u might say 'but wait, with compression u can take a movie to sayyy 1200 megs with divx or other algorithms' pfft....these things make the movie look terrible on large screen tvs. i've seen what a dvd originally at around 6 gigs transcoded to 4.3gbs looks like on a large screen HD tv...its HORRIBLE. long story shit its not gonna happen |
I still like vinyls personally...I have bought far more (used in excellent shape) LPs lately than CDs. Something like a 45 to 1 ratio off the top of my head.
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Re: CDs & DVDs to be gone in 5 years...
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It will be slow, I'll always love hard copies, becuase I lost upwords of 9 megabites of mp3's when my nomad suddenly stopped working. I died inside that day. |
Nope, people will always want their OWN.
Own home, Own car, Own shit It's the American way. |
I can easily see hardware change shapes and mediums, but thinking cd and dvds will cease in five years is a bit ridiculous.
If memory serves me correctly almost every single media ‘sure things’ have died. Too many factors. |
As much as I like downloading stuff -- movies, music, et al [hope no one from the FBI is reading this], there something satisfying about owning something. Knowing that you worked hard for your money and spent it wisely on a nice physical product.
For example, I'm a HUGE Simpsons fan and although I've downloaded most of the episodes, I won't hesitate to run out and buy the DVDs when I go on vacation in the US. Same goes for Family Guy. |
there making evrything ready at your finger tips. so we are gonna turn into impatient lazy pricks. ppl who just sit on the computer or in front of the tv and don't get out how. i'll be damned befor thats happens to me. nothings more satisfying than goin to the shop and physically buying the product.
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"HD crashed? But.. But.. I have $500 dollars of music on there! All gone!!!"
Fuck that! I want it on CD! (or DVD) |
dont think so
ok i donwload all stuff ... then i need to safe it for future use so i will use a dvd+r (or something better) therefore i need them also in 5 years ;) ehehe
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Saying they go the way of vinyl implies that vinyl no longer exists at all. Yeah it definitely isn't mainstream but it does enjoy an entreched position in DJ and audiophile niche markets.
Like Speed_Gibson I enjoy my parents LP collection. It's the challenge of keeping it in good shape, finding good turntables and cartridges; good amplifiers and speakers. I also like the romantic notion of using a medium that is (relatively) low tech enough to never be DRMed up the ass. Television and video didn't make the cinema extinct. CDs and DVDs will only die if the corporate mofos KILL them. |
I'd hate to see the day come when all media is just files on our computers. I love going into music stores, looking for CDs, buying one randomly that might be cool. I also love album art. If music was all on computers, there would probably be no more album art. That would be a sad day...
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I refuse to rent music. If I purchase something, I want it to be in a physical format that I can carry wherever I want.
And I don't think anyone is going to purchase hardware which deliberately prevents them from doing something they want. If a company does that, then another company will innovate something that works just as well without infringing on liberties. |
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I'm still waiting for everyone to have flying cars and videophones, and all our meals in pill form.
Let's go people! My shiny silver unitard is getting eaten by moths! sk |
As long as people "collect" There will always be CDs and DVD...
Hell I still buy vinyl whenever I get a chance. Many artist still release on the ol stuff. Normally a limited run but it's out there none the less. |
If you can see it or hear it on your computer, you can copy it and distribute it. Anyone that thinks otherwise is pissing in the wind. They should work on making it easier to buy, $$ price or have unique incentives, than download.
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Nah DVD's won't go anywhere. Maybe CD's but not for a long time. DVD's will be around as long as their's video games and then there's Sony's BlueRay which holds a hell of alot of data. They'll be around for a while.
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Awesome! so in 5 years I'll be able to download streaming music directly to my cold-fusion-powered flying car's radio! I'm glad predictions about the future are so acurate.
sweeeeet. |
I've been involved in the home video industry for over 10 years now, in sales and marketing. I've heard the media "cry wolf" so many times now, I simply turn a deaf ear to it.
When VHS first came out, theatres weren't going to last five years. When satellite first came out, cable wasn't going to last five years. When Pay Per View first came out, VHS wasn't going to last five years. Now with downloading and streaming, theatres and DVD won't last five years. These are just a couple of MANY such death knell's people have made about the entertainment industry over the last fifty years. New technology in the entertainment industry simply forces an evolution or maturing of the industry, it doesn't kill it. I absolutely love the direction that our studio has taken over the last couple of years to solidify our "survival" during this maturing process. We really got into the cult cinema (horror, anime, sci-fi, foreign) DVD's, and lessened our relying on "mainstream" titles. It is also very important in this ever changing environment to focus on creating a collectible type product - using innovative and unique packaging, special features, audio and video quality, etc... In order to survive, a studio has to truly cater to the collector - a collector who insists on having the great packaging and special features that they can't get with streaming or downloading. Tell the film fan who buys every Criterion DVD that is released, that they have to now download or stream the film if they want to watch it. You'll have a geek revolt on your hands! :) DVD is here for many, many years to come, and will only be replaced by a better method of storing data... |
I kinda buy it. We're holding on to CD's mostly for nostolgia and legacy of the players we've all bought. CD players will not disappear, just as tape players haven't, but in order for the music industry to compete with P2P, they've got to cut the costs of manufacturing, storing, and distributing their product out of their price. Otherwise, they will not ever be able to cut costs enough to compete. In the end, after fighting it for years, they're gonna force it on us. DRM is gonna have to be figured out into some sort of working model because the whole world can't go on swapping mp3's for free forever. I just hope that they improve the sound quality.
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I'm not throwing away my DVD and CD players. People who want downloads can have them, and I do like mp3's but I dont prefer them so much.
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Ha, the music industry won't stop stuff like this. Downloading will always happen. It's too widespread. Also, yes, medium's may change, but it'll just be something else with the same basic idea. 1's and 0's, there'll always be a way to save them for yourself...
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and my criterion DVDs you'd have to pry from my grubby fingers... |
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Reminds me of the paperless office that all of us should be working in, this concept has led to MORE paper use because of people printing out e-mails, faxes, etc instead of leaving them in their "digital" form. There is just something about having there stuff on paper that makes it seem "real". This same concept is true here, putting the stuff on CDs and DVDs just make them seem more "real". |
If the artists make better music and there are better movies to buy (besides a select few) then I'll buy.
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Tape cassettes are still in effect too, even though they were supposed to be extinct "soon" a long time ago. The idea that cd's will be gone in the span of a few years is silly when you consider the digital divide. There are billions of people in this world, millions in this country who don't have access to their own P.C., much less broadband. I doubt that by 2006 or even 2010 the amount of unwired will become so negligable that the industry could afford to ignore them.
The economics of the music industry are so inflated right now any way and have been for decades. P2P just puts the power back in our hands. I think multimillion dollar salaries for record execs will we gone before CDs will. |
thats bullshit....that won't happen a long time......streaming something dvd quality or to download still requires hard drive space...which alot of people don't have tons of.....plus people would have to learn it....most people like the ease of popping in a cd or dvd......plus every isp would have to upgrade and everybody would have to have broadband...we are far from it.
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Netflix delivers 4.5Gb in an envelope, so truly the post office is the most versitile ISP at the moment. |
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