Borla

They basically have the entire team signed for next year.

The only REALLY important free agent is Konerko.......and I think he'll be back. Here is why:
Konerko had the ball from the last out. And for the past 2 days everyone (media) has been asking him where is the ball? What are you gonna do with it? Paul kept saying, don't worry I have it and it's not going anywhere, I'm keeping it. I saw things claiming the irony of this after what happened last year, with the Red Sox. So Konerko was talking to the crowd and called up Jerry Reinsdorf, the Sox owner. Then Jerry came up and Paul pulled the ball out of his pocket and gave it to Jerry. He almost started crying. He got all teary eyed and had to take a minute before he could talk. He then said that was the best thing anyone has done for him and that this is the most emotional day of his life. You tell me that isn't huge symbolically, since it's those two guys that have to sign off on the new contract when all is said and done.



Here is how it breaks down:

Buerhle - Under contract.
Garland - Up for salary arbitration, going nowhere.
Garcia = Under contract.
Contraras = Under contract.
Hernandez = Under contract.


That right there is your starting rotation, the best/deepest in baseball, all coming back. You have Brandon McCarthy (who shut out the Red Sox and Rangers both in the final weeks of the season remember), fighting for a spot in there too. I could MAYBE see a trade of a starting pitcher for a DH or solid bat, but either way they are deeper than any team in the league in starting pitching.

Hermanson = Under contract.
Cotts = Club sets salary (too little seniority for arbitration).
Politte = Club option for $1.2M, they will do it.
Jenks = Club sets salary (too little seniority for arbitration).

There is the heart of your bullpen, all coming back.

Pierzynski = Salary arbitration, will be back.
Iguchi = Under contract.
Uribe = Under contract.
Crede = Salary arbitration, will be back.
Podsednik = Under contract.
Rowand = Under contract.
Dye = Under contract.

That is ALL of your starting position players, except Konerko.


You have Konerko as a free agent, and Thomas and Everett with buyouts. Brian Anderson and several of the other key back-ups will all be back. Basically, if the Sox lock up Konerko, the only change they will have next year is a tweak at DH, or maybe sliding McCarthy into the starting rotation in place of Hernandez. The scary thing is, if you go through their ENTIRE team, the only key guy whose numbers were much better than his career averages was Garland, and he is young, and this could be the Garland that you will see pitching the next 5-10 years. The way it seems now, the Sox stand to have a VERY strong team next year too.

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Craven Morehead

This Cubs fan would like to see the team remain as is. Konerko isn't going to go anywhere. Besides Reinsdorf saw first hand what happens to a championship team when its broken up. He also owns the Bulls.

I think these guys all have their heads in the right spot. No big egos, a real team. I hope they can keep it up for a few more years. After a couple more years it will get tough. About the only thing that can kill this team is injuries.

djtestudo

They aren't even the best team in their own division.

Cleveland almost beat them out as it is. THEY are the favorites. They have great young pitching, great young hitting, and most importantly, money.

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pan6467

Listen to DJ he knows from what he speaks.

I seriously doubt Hernandez and Contreras will have the same year next year. They pitched above their heads.

Also by all means keep the team as is, the Indians will sign/trade for the bat they need and something tells me IF Dolan truly wants to keep any fanbase he'll resign Millwood. (Millwood has stated if Cle. gives him the years and the right $$$ he won't even listen to anyone else.... so he is Cle's to lose)

This offseason will show how badly Dolan wants the Tribe to win. If he goes after the holes (RH power hitter, an ace SP, a closer, and a veteran clutch hitter) and gets primo players and not an Alex Cora and so on then the ChiSux are doomed.

Cleveland has very few holes but they do have the few I described above and they can be easily filled.... by trade or F/A

A good cheap match maybe Piazza and play him at 1B. He has experience and in the A.L. may up his average and homers a bit..... however his character and leadership maybe in doubt and disruptive.

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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

Derwood

Crede will go, as will El Duque. Rowand will be traded to make room for theirphenom minor league OFer (name escapes me)

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Borla

I'll be shocked if Crede goes anywhere after the clutch second-half and playoffs he had. I could see El Duque going somewhere for a DH, since they have Brandon McCarthey ready to start next year, though I say you can never have too much depth. I can't see Rowand getting traded though.



I'm hearing lots of "if, if, if" out of the Cleveland fans.

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pan6467

When you have an owner saying he's dedicated to putting a winner on the field but refuses to put money into the team until "fans start coming to the park" you have to have a lot of "ifs".

My question is why own a team and refuse to put money into it until fans show up? You are starting the downward spiral into mediocrity, yourself.

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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

Borla

I agree.........that had actually been Reinsdorf's excuse here in Chicago for a long time. Fortunately, through deft moves by Kenny Williams to get quality men as well as players, and Ozzie instilling a team spirit that guys actually bought into, we were able to succeed despite it. Now I'm hoping Reinsdorf loosens the purse strings enough to hang on to Konerko.

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pan6467

The Indians Mark Shapiro has done the same thing, but as we saw this year we are still short and rookies and young players just can't do it without some veterans, so now Dolan has to open up the purse and get the missing pieces or Cleveland will give up on the owner and the Indians are destined to become more like they were in the 60's-early 90's rather than the powerhouse they can be.

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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

kutulu

The Sox had plenty of players perform at the very least above what would be expected of them and quite a few career years that will not likely be repeated.

Garland - Aside from 117 IP in 2001, this year's ERA was better than any previous year by more than 1 run. He could have a significant decline.

There's not much to go off of from Contreras but he's not 33 as listed.

Garcia and Burhle are fine pitchers but neither is a true 'ace' pitcher.

El Duque sucks, he's done.

It's a GOOD rotation, but not a GREAT rotation. Two '#2' guys and and some league average guys are nice but not typical of a favorite. Cleveland did pitch just as well as the Sox and Min was right behind them.

On offense, they had a very average team. 16th in OPS and 13th in runs scored. They won due to career years from key pitchers and Garcia and Burhle doing a little better than expected.

I wouldn't put money on the Sox even winning their division. Cleveland will be a threat, as will Minnesota.

Borla

"Quite a few career years"? Like who? I'm curious to see the long list of names...........


I'd argue that he JUST turned 26, and is finally figuring things out and getting his confidence up. I think this year was just the beginning.

And Roger Clemens is 42. Age is a number nowadays.

Buerhle isn't an ace? Name ONE lefty who has more wins in the last five years. Garcia has AVERAGED a shade under 15 wins a season for the last six years. Not too shabby as a number three.

We all saw how he struggled against Boston in the ALDS, eh? I hope all their pitchers suck that bad next year!

If a "good but not great" rotation gets you the lowest ERA in the ENTIRE AL, like the Sox had this year, I'll take it.


I have found on many forums the last few weeks people who didn't have much of a clue about the Sox (especially their pitching) because they get limited media coverage. If people would take a look at the hard stats, they might see it wasn't a fluke.

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pan6467

I'm not going to deny that Chicago has a good team that will compete next year, because they will.

However, I do think their pitching staff pitched above their heads and as we saw how the Tribe almost caught up to them (and the Tribe lacked a true clutch hitter and run producer) they were weaker after the All-Star break.

I will say your guys came through in the clutch at the end though and won very decisively. But can they win like that again? I doubt it.

Something tells me the crosstown Cubs have been awakened and maybe the old Tribune is gonna put some big money behind the team this year to reclaim the #1 team in Chicago.

I see the Cubs going after Burnett and Millwood heavily, maybe trying to trade for Manny and if Thome can be had cheap.

A rotation of Prior, Millwood, Burnett, Zambrano and Wood/Maddox (trading one or the other) would be the scariest in all baseball. I can see the Cubs doing it and if the Tribune doesn't, they show me they are content living off the name and not truly competing.

(Of course I hope and wish and pray the Tribe gets eithe Millwood or Burnett but I doubt we'll be able to afford them with "no money" Dolan as owner.

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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

Borla

I don't see the Cubs pursuing Thome because they already have Derrick Lee.




As far as the Sox pitchers pitching over their heads this year........check out these stats:

Buerhle-
2001 - 16 wins - 221.1 innings - 3.29 ERA
2002 - 19 wins - 239.0 innings - 3.58 ERA
2003 - 14 wins - 230.1 innings - 4.14 ERA
2004 - 16 wins - 245.1 innings - 3.89 ERA
2005 - 14 wins - 236.2 innings - 3.12 ERA

Garcia
2002 - 16 wins - 223.2 innings
2003 - 12 wins - 201.1 innings
2004 - 13 wins - 210.0 innings
2005 - 14 wins - 228.0 innings

Garland -
2002 - 12 wins - 192.2 innings
2003 - 12 wins - 191.2 innings
2004 - 12 wins - 217.0 innings
2005 - 18 wins - 221.0 innings



The only one with a significant improvement was Garland, and he just turned 26. I'd argue that everything is just finally clicking for him, and what he did this year is representative of what he is capable of.


I guess time will tell.

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kutulu

Start with Konerko, His OPS+ was 136, career 114. Oh, and it's a contract year. Interesting how that works...
Anyways, aside from Konerko (and Dye to some extent), their offense was below league average. If they expect to be true condenters next season, they will have to upgrade that offense.

Burhle - ERA+ of 143 vs career ERA+ of 128
Garland, after 5 years of mediocrity, he pulls a 127 ERA+. Remind anyone of Beltre?
Cotts - ERA+ 229!!?
Hermanson - from league average to 218 ERA+
Politte - ERA+ 222 vs career 112

Evaluating pitchers based on W-L is setting yourself up for disaster. Going into the 2005 season guess who had the most wins since like 2000 - Russ Ortiz.

Things happen in the postseason, for proof that El Duque sucked, look at his 2005 regular season stats. He was far below league average.

Actually, they tied with Cleveland and were just 0.10 ahead of Min. It's not as if they ran away with it. Their pen went so far beyond expectations and they won't repeat that.

Perhaps you should take a second look at the stats. They won their division because they manhandled their division. Outside of the ALC, they were a .500 team.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2005.shtml

kutulu

I don't understand the love that Millwood gets. Sure, he was great in 2005, but seems to go in patterns of suck for two years, good for one year. Add in that Boras is his agent and it just doesn't look good for the team that gets him.

Borla

An offense below league average got them where this year?

The Houston Astros had the 27th best offense out of 30, and they outlasted 28 of the 29 other teams. So to say they "have to" upgrade on offense is false, if their pitching and defense stays the class of the league.


Did you miss the part about Garland only being 26? How many players hit their prime years in their late 20's and early 30's. I think he'll be fine.


And what about Konerko? His lifetime batting average is .279, he hit .283 this year. He hit 40 home runs this year, he hit 41 last year. He had 24 doubles this year, 22 last year. He had 100 RBI this year, 117 the year before. His slugging percentage last year was .534, it was .535 the year before. I don't see a huge difference in numbers there for you to claim this was a "career year" for him.

Jermaine Dye? Career batting average of .272, he hit .274 this year. He hit 29 doubles last year, 29 this year. He hit 23 HR's last year, 31 this year. 86 RBIs this year, 80 last year. Aside from the year he was hurt in 2003, his numbers this year are in the same range as every year since 1999.

And as far as how I evaluate pitchers.......throw my estimation out the window. Did you happen to check out the recently released Elias Sports Bureau ratings of starting pitchers? For those that aren't familiar, they are THE undisputed authority on player ratings as far as both the MLB and the MLBPA is concerned. They release player rankings for the purpose of determining draft choice compensation for free agents, as well as to compare players head to head. They ranked three of the Sox starting pitchers (Buerhle, Garcia, and Garland) in the top eleven in their league, and the Sox had a total of four of the top eighteen. No other team even comes close.

We can all argue till we are blue in the face, guess we'll have to wait till next year to see who is right.

In the meantime, I'll enjoy walking around in my "World Champs" shirt.

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kutulu

My point is that you are using the wrong tools to evaluate them. Batting average is a terrible metric to use (not as bad as RBI though). HR are somewhat decieving too. Are you familiar with OPS+? It's on base plus slugging normalized so you can see how they compared to the league. An OPS+ of 100 is league average, 90 is 10% below average, and 110 is 10% above average. Here are Konerko's OPS+ for his career:
1999 120
2000 108
2001 120
2002 123
2003 85
2004 123
2005 136

2005 WAS a career year. I'm not saying he usually sucks, just that this was his best year yet. My comment on Dye was that he was the only other player to be significantly above league average. Iguchi was just above league average. It's not a typical recipe for success if 6 of the 9 hitters on your team are below league average.

Garland is similar. He had a fine year in 2001 and 2005 but has been league average the rest of the time. Also, did you even look at the BR link I posted? How can you not say the pen went way above their projections?

Borla

I'm familiar with .OPS. However, I'd argue that offensive stats are down across the league this year, maybe because of steriod use. If Konerko is clean, and many of the players raising the "curve" were not, it's not a matter of him having an awesome year as much as him staying the same while the field dropped. Using that theory, or what I said originally, what he did this year could be expected out of him again, assuming he avoids injury.


As far as Garland, he has been decent, with everyone in Chicago screaming about "potential". I'll I'm saying is that he's reached it now.

With the bullpen, if Bobby Jenks does what he did the second half (and there is no reason to think he won't just get better with experience), and the depth they have, I'm not too worried.

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drewpy

Love to hear all the central division love going on in this thread. I'd rather not have the boys in black as favorites. Certainly wasn't the case this year ... and had a great time on LaSalle street on Friday. Ticker tape parades are pretty cool. As to next year, well, I still have a hundred plus days of saying, "World Champs". That'll keep me happy.

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pan6467

Millwood, I think has a great upside. He'll never be a #1 pitcher but he'll be an extremely strong and fearsome #2.

I think the problem with Millwood is Philly just pinned him to be the next best thing since Carlton. And when the hype didn't come true and the pressure was on Millwood had a hard time handling it.

I think if he goes to a team and they sign him for big big bucks and expect him to be this great ace, then, yes, he'll falter. But if he signs like he did in Cleveland with a team needing some veteran leadership in pitching, don't pressure him to be this great savior pitcher, he'll be their #2 and will show this year wasn't a fluke.

That's why I believe Cleveland (he's been here, he's comfortable and he's not the "ace", he's "the craft veteran"), the Cubs, Florida, maybe the Mets and Angels could use him. I see him being a bust in places like the Yankees, the Bosox, the Dodgers, even Baltimore. He may get bigger bucks there but he'd be pushed to be the "ace" and one bad season and he'd be a goat to fans and that would end him.

As for Boras, I like what Millwood said at the end of the season, that he's the boss and knows what he wants, if he gets it then he's taking it and it doesn't matter what Boras wants. Boras works for him, he doesn't work for Boras.

Talk is cheap but you don't hear many players talking that way.

What does Millwood want? According to the Plain Dealer, he's been quotes as saying a 4-5 year contract at about 9 million a year. If that is true, Cleveland should be able to resign him easily, but 9 million for Millwood, is high, I'd make it incentive laden.

Burnett will probably get around that and Burnett is a younger and better pitcher.

__________________
I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

Borla

Preach on brotha!!!!!

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