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Originally Posted by kutulu
Start with Konerko, His OPS+ was 136, career 114. Oh, and it's a contract year. Interesting how that works...
Anyways, aside from Konerko (and Dye to some extent), their offense was below league average. If they expect to be true condenters next season, they will have to upgrade that offense.
Burhle - ERA+ of 143 vs career ERA+ of 128
Garland, after 5 years of mediocrity, he pulls a 127 ERA+. Remind anyone of Beltre?
Cotts - ERA+ 229!!?
Hermanson - from league average to 218 ERA+
Politte - ERA+ 222 vs career 112
Evaluating pitchers based on W-L is setting yourself up for disaster. Going into the 2005 season guess who had the most wins since like 2000 - Russ Ortiz.
Things happen in the postseason, for proof that El Duque sucked, look at his 2005 regular season stats. He was far below league average.
Actually, they tied with Cleveland and were just 0.10 ahead of Min. It's not as if they ran away with it. Their pen went so far beyond expectations and they won't repeat that.
Perhaps you should take a second look at the stats. They won their division because they manhandled their division. Outside of the ALC, they were a .500 team.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2005.shtml |
An offense below league average got them where this year?
The Houston Astros had the 27th best offense out of 30, and they outlasted 28 of the 29 other teams. So to say they "have to" upgrade on offense is false, if their pitching and defense stays the class of the league.
Did you miss the part about Garland only being 26?
How many players hit their prime years in their late 20's and early 30's. I think he'll be fine.
And what about Konerko? His lifetime batting average is .279, he hit .283 this year. He hit 40 home runs this year, he hit 41 last year. He had 24 doubles this year, 22 last year. He had 100 RBI this year, 117 the year before. His slugging percentage last year was .534, it was .535 the year before. I don't see a huge difference in numbers there for you to claim this was a "career year" for him.
Jermaine Dye? Career batting average of .272, he hit .274 this year. He hit 29 doubles last year, 29 this year. He hit 23 HR's last year, 31 this year. 86 RBIs this year, 80 last year. Aside from the year he was hurt in 2003, his numbers this year are in the same range as every year since 1999.
And as far as how I evaluate pitchers.......throw my estimation out the window. Did you happen to check out the recently released Elias Sports Bureau ratings of starting pitchers? For those that aren't familiar, they are THE undisputed authority on player ratings as far as both the MLB and the MLBPA is concerned. They release player rankings for the purpose of determining draft choice compensation for free agents, as well as to compare players head to head. They ranked three of the Sox starting pitchers (Buerhle, Garcia, and Garland) in the top eleven in their league, and the Sox had a total of four of the top eighteen. No other team even comes close.
We can all argue till we are blue in the face, guess we'll have to wait till next year to see who is right.
In the meantime, I'll enjoy walking around in my "World Champs" shirt.
