kutulu

I think so. Forget the W-L record, it's a superficial stat that is strongly dependant on the quality of the team you are on. Russ Ortiz last year is a perfect example of that, he won 21 games last year with a 3.81 ERA. To me the only fair way to judge a pitcher is to look at his ERA, IP, WHIP, K, and HR. When you look at those stats, he blows everyone away. Remember, the CYA doesn't go to the pitcher who was the most valuable to his team, it is supposed to go to the guy who dominated the most batters.

djtestudo

Hell, I'd argue he could have been the most valuable to his team because he was the only reason to see the Diamondbacks all season.

He was the best pitcher this year, so he gets the award.

Clemens is a close second, though.

__________________
"Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen."
--Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun

radioguy

it's a tough call. unfortunatly, the voters are going to look at his won/loss record and see that it was far from impressive, even though all his other stats were amazing. i wouldn't mind him winning it, but the story of the year has been clemens coming out of retirement, which i hate, to pitch in his hometown. i bet they will vote for clemens, but secretly want johnson to win.

Halx

I'd like to see him win it.. 'cause ya gotta feel sorry for him. He fell *just* short of the line of demarkation that notes "so ugly, it's cute."

Oh yeah.. he's also the most badass pitcher ever.

__________________
You have found this post informative.
-The Administrator
[Don't Feed The Animals]

Baldrick

Should he win? Absolutely. He was the best pitcher in baseball as far as I'm concerned.

Will he win? I wouldn't bet money on it. I think his W-L, and Arizona's terrible season overall will work against him in the voters eyes. I really hope not, but I'd be surprised if he won.

__________________
You can be young only once, but you can be immature for the rest of your life...

canuckguy

alot of the sport sites I read like espn, cnnsi..etc all but so much stock into him not having that many wins. I think he should win the cy, its not his fault his team sucks balls. his era alone should get him the title.

soccerchamp76

If he was on any other team, he would lead the league in wins.
He wins it.

__________________
Brian Griffin: Ah, if my memory serves me, this is the physics department.
Chris Griffin: That would explain all the gravity.

kutulu

If it isn't RJ, it would be Clemens for sure. I don't have a real problem with that because he did get the results. Both Stark and Gammons picked him but I'm sure that Joe Morgan would pick Clemens. Morgan has a history of lack of knowledge about stats.

cardfan4269

Absolutely he should win but the sports writers will pick someone else-hopefully Clemons. At least the Astros made it to the playoffs-something they would not have done if Clemons had retired. But my pick would be Johnson-hands down the best in the NL this year.

bond007

Clemens deserves the Cy Young.

here's why:
1. Clemens' W-L record of 18-4 is so far superior to Johnson's record of 16-14, that it trumps Johnson's statistical edges in ERA (2.60 to 2.98), WHIP (0.90 to 1.16), IP (245 to 214), and K (290 to 218). Clemens had the edge in HR's Allowed (18 to 15).

btw: another statistical factor (called the Ballpark Index) that favors Clemens, is that he achieved his success while pitching in a more "hitter-friendly" ballpark.

djtestudo

Not when one pitcher is one of five good pitchers on a playoff team and the other is the ONLY attraction on a terrible team.

Should Alex Rodriguez have won the MVP last year?

__________________
"Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen."
--Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun

kutulu

Actually Bank One is slightly more of a hitter's park than Minute Maid. It's really close enough that it can be completely ignored. BOB is actually 2nd in elevation to Coors Field.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=3289

Regarding the W-L record, Clemens has only 2 more wins. People are focusing on the losses that Johnson has, which IMO, is sort of short-sighted.

Looking at some of the losses Johnson got:
4/6 COL 6.0IP 3R, 3ER
5/7 PHI 6.1IP 2R, 2ER
5/12 NYM 7.0IP, 1R, 1ER
6/29 SD 8.0 3R, 2ER
7/20 SF 7.0 3R, 2ER
8/10 MON 6.0IP, 3R, 3ER
8/20 CIN, 7.2IP 2R, 1ER
8/25 PIT, 8.0IP, 2R, 2ER
9/22 COL, 7.0IP, 3R, 1ER

And ALL of his no-decisions:
4/11 STL 7.0IP, 5R, 5ER
6/23 SD, 7.0IP, 3R, 3ER
7/15 LA, 7IP, 0R
7/25 COL 8.0IP, 0R
8/31 LA 8.0IP, 1R, 1ER

With the exception of the 4/11 game he should have won all all of those. Instead, those are 9 losses and 5 no-decisions due to the AA hitting team and second worst-fielding team that went to the field behind him.

Clemens only had 2 losses when he pitched at least 7 and gave up 3 or less. He also had 5 no decisions where he gave up 4 or more.

I also think you are discounting the differences in ERA, IP, and WHIP. That is almost a half a run/9innings, 31 innings, and a 22% difference in baserunners allowed.

I just don't think that anyone could have been more sucessful in his role this year. If he and Roger had switched places, Clemens would not be 16-14 and RJ would be better than 18-4.

bond007

ummm... perhaps not. here's a link to the Ballparks Register (at baseball-statistics.com), and their analysis of the Houston & Arizona ballparks.
http://www.baseball-statistics.com/Ballparks/

Minute Maid Ballpark:
Highly offensive ballpark, producing large increases in runs, home runs and batting average. It also boosted doubles and triples dramatically, thanks to the oddly-shaped outfield walls and deep center field, and the minimum of foul territory gives hitters extra swings at the ball. When the hot Houston summer air fills the stadium, the ball carries substantially better than it did at the Astrodome.

Bank One Ballpark:
With an elevation of approximately 1,100 feet above sea level, Bank One Ballpark is the second-highest facility in the major leagues, trailing only Coors Field in Denver. Scientists have estimated that a fly ball will travel seven feet farther for every 1,000 feet of altitude. When the hot desert air blows in, the heat makes the ball travel even further.

That said, the park doesn't appear to boost run production significantly - in fact, it has depressed home runs in three of the past four years, and played neutral as far as scoring runs is concerned.

kutulu

Now, you realize that your reference had BOB listed as a more hitter friendly park than Minute Maid in 2003 (13 vs 15) and 2002 (6 vs 12), right?

The text written on the parks is based on data up to the '01 season

That said I don't put too much into park factors until it becomes an exaggerated case (Coor's Field vs. Dodger Stadium). They vary year by year and are heavily influenced by the quality of the most recent pitching staff. For example, I'd expect BOB to appear as a more exaggerated hitter's park because of the low quality pitching they had most of the year (however the terrible bats did their best to keep things low)

Delirious

How about Oswalt? The only guy to win 20 games.. I wouldn't count him out..

Beatlefan58

What does it say for the state of pitching in the National League when two guys looking back at 40 are the two that the group here thinks (the mention of Oswalt notwithstanding) are the likely winners?

kutulu

So what if he won 20 games, he had an ERA of 3.49. It would be a disgrace to the award to give it to someone with such a high ERA. With enough run support, anyone can win (RE: Russ Ortiz).

dmt767s

I think the Cy Young should go to the best pitcher, which would be Johnson. Unfortunately I think Clemens will get it because his team won and he's been a great "story" all season.

__________________
w00t

Bobaphat

I can see the arguement for both Johnson and Clemens and think that it is damn near a toss-up in my opinion. As far as I am concerned, the really impressive stat is that the two real contenders for the award are both geriatrics. I don't know if that speaks to their ability, or how bad pitching has really been over the past 20 years.

__________________
--size matters not-- yoda

Tralls

Clemens hands down - the turnaround by the Astros is remarkable and definitely attributable to his performance. They were left for dead by everyone at the All Star Break and now have a chance to be this year's Marlins.

kutulu

Clemens was a great pitcher this year. If RJ doesn't get it, Clemens should.

Tralls

Bobaphat, I think the decline of the Complete Game has resulted in the decline of the pitching ability of starters, thus the older guys used to pitching over 120 pitches a game are the ones who can keep coming through for their team consistently. Look even at Pedro Martinez over the last 2 seasons. An amazing pitcher, but once he hits 100 pitches he is done. My 2 cents...

tom12

i'd have to say Oswalt, the most dominant young guys in the game, and those 4 cubs pitchers are all pretty nasty too

soccerchamp76

No way Randy doesn't win it.
To go 16-14 on a team with 100+ losses is amazing.
If he were with the Cardinals he would have at least 25 wins.

__________________
Brian Griffin: Ah, if my memory serves me, this is the physics department.
Chris Griffin: That would explain all the gravity.

Beatlefan58

I am old enough to remember when the pitching staff was based on a four man rotation, and a team carried 10 pitchers, not 11 or 12. When I hear of a pitcher going on "short rest", I think of Denny McLain or Fergie Jenkins or Bob Gibson that went to the mound every four days. The fifth starter was a long reliever that filled in when there were double-headers or something like that.

{Anti-Punk}

Naturally, being a Dback and RJ fan, I believe he should win the Cy Young. However, due to the Dback's disappointing season (a huge understatement), I think someone else might win it. He is more than deserving of the award though. I think people are overlooking the fact that he did pitch a perfect game and almost all his stats are superior to the other competitor most people are mentioning (Roger Clemens).

tireguy17

Clemens better get the CY Young

yoyoyobro

I REALLY hope that Johnson beats out Clemens with the truly awful run support that he got this season he really deserves it.

buffto

perfect game, anyone?

anyway, anyone who needs more than 3 days rest to pitch consecutive games has some stamina problems and they need to get in better shape. (and don't give me that "try it yourself sometime, asshole" bs. because I have.

aliali

RJ deserves it, but it will go to Clemens.

RJ produced 31.37% of team wins and 12.61% of losses

Clemens produced 19.56% of team wins and 5.7% of losses

Wins or losses should not be discounted entirely (winners win even in tough situations), but should only be weighed with some consideration of how they came about. The only real edge Clemens has on RJ in any category is the losses. A look at RJ's performance in the losses as Kutulu has shown proves that RJ is deserving.

Kurant

Umm...

Clemens won 20 games in 2001 with an ERA over 3.50.

Guess what else he won .... You guessed it.

The Cy Young.

archer2371

Eh, either of them could get it and I would be happy. RJ's just an outstanding pitcher, makes me wonder why Steinbrenner didn't bust out the check book to get him. Clemens had an outstanding year, he helped elevate the Astros to a serious WS contender, and he had comparable stats to RJ. So, I don't know, really tough call.

That stamina thing, Clemens was recovering from the flu, that's some tough shit to get over and still play. In the regular season he wanted time to spend with his kids, watch them grow up, ya know, those kind of fatherly things that trump baseball.

__________________
"This ain't no Ice Cream Social!"

"Hey Grif, Chupathingy...how bout that? I like it...got a ring to it."

"I have no earthly idea what it is I just saw, or what this place is, or where in the hell O'Malley is! My only choice is to blame Grif for coming up with such a flawed plan. Stupid, stupid Grif."

piesen

RJ should get it I firmly believe
plus I have been a big fan of his since he played for the Mariners.

kutulu

Yes and I thought it was total bullshit that he won the Cy that year. Garcia totally outpitched him. Clemens won it on name alone. Garcia got skipped because he was a third year player.