RoadRage

All the talk has been whether LSU can catch USC. Obviously if one loses, the other is in.

No one talks about what happens if they both lose. So I will.

Assumptions: Oregon St beat Southern California, Georgia beats LSU, Miami-OH beats Bowling Green and becomes #11 in polls, shifts in computer ratings are the same as in Colley's, LSU drops to #5 in polls, USC drops to #6 in polls, and probably a couple of other things I forgot to mention. I'll freely admit this is a house of cards, but no one else is even taking a stab at it.

Results:
Rank. Team: Losses + Poll Avg + Computer Avg (A,B,C,M,N,S,W)+ Proj. SOS Rank - QW (Team beaten) = Score

1. Oklahoma: 0 + 1.0 + 1.00 (duh) + 0.40 - 0.7 (Texas) = 1.70
2. Georgia: 2 + 3.0 + 2.17 (3,2,4,2,2,2,2) + 0.64 - 0.8 (LSU,Tenn) = 7.11
3. Michigan: 2 + 2.0 + 4.00 (5,3,5,4,3,5,4) + 0.48 - 0.6 (Ohio St) = 7.88
4. Texas: 2 + 4.0 + 5.67 (4,10,9,6,4,4,7) + 0.76 - 0.0 = 12.43
5. Ohio State: 2 + 7.5 + 4.83 (7,5,2,3,7,11,5) + 0.16 - 0.0 = 14.49
6. Louisiana State: 2 + 5.0 + 7.58 (8.5,7,6,7,10,7,10) + 1.32 - 0.9 (Georgia) = 15.00
7. Florida State: 2 + 9.0 + 5.67 (6,8,3,8,5,6,6) + 0.52 - 0.0 = 17.19
8. Tennessee: 2 + 7.5 + 8.00 (10,6,11,9,6,9,8) +1.76 - 0.1 (Miami-FL) = 19.16
9. Southern California: 2 + 6.0 + 10.00 (11,11,8,11,9,10,11) +1.28 - 0.0 = 19.28
10. Miami-Florida: 2 + 10.0 + 7.43 (8.5,4,7,10,8,8,9) + 0.60 - 0.4 (Florida St) = 19.63
11. Miami-Ohio: 1 + 11.0 + 5.33 (2,9,10,5,11,3,3) + 2.92 - 0.0 = 20.25

I had assumed it as a given that it would be Michigan as #2 if both USC and LSU lose. I didn't realize that Georgia could possibly jump *THAT* much. If Georgia were to leapfrog Michigan in one of the human polls (very possible if Georgia hangs 40 or 50 on LSU's vaunted defense), the shakiness in the computer poll assumptions would have less effect on the outcome.

{edit: I had somehow forgotten that Georgia had a QW over Tennessee. Numbers have been changed to reflect it.}

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ironchef82

Wooooooo!!!!! Go Dawgs!!!!

But I sure ain't holdin' my breath for this. It'll be hard enough beating LSU on Saturday. And even if it *did* happen, they'd get creamed by OU.

Next year, baby. I think next year is their time.

edit: USC drops all the way from 2 to 9?? And plus, I think this scenario of UGA overtaking Michigan had been mentioned in some espn column earlier, so this didn't come as too much of a shock to me.

RoadRage

There are only 5.5 BCS points separating #5 from #9, so even slight movements is going to big shifts and big movements (like the scenario as laid out) is an upheaval. USC is already 3 in several computers, and losing to a #40s-ranked Oregon State would kill them in the computers, possibly worse than the #11s I have projected. Add to that Syrcause-Notre Dame (whom USC played) and Boise St-Hawaii (whom USC played). Losses by the wrong teams, and Southern Cal may be #10 or #11.

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dragon2fire

can we say time for a playoff system any one

billclinton

RR- you're absolutely right on your 2 loss assumptions!!!
The real irony is that if LSU whips Georgia, as I totally expect them too, they will lose points on quality wins from the previous Georgia win.........the BCS is classic.......???!!

By the way.....the Hogs are gonna whip some Mizzou arse!!!!

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fearofmear

If both teams lose, I'd expect Michigan to hold onto its spot. USC and LSU would both be penalized in the polls and drop to the bottom half of teams with 2 losses, below Ohio State. Michigan would get more of a quality win reduction and get the numbe r2 spot. What would be fun is if USC and LSU won and OU lost.

Artermis

OS is a lock for the Sugar Bowl even with a loss.

I suspect that it would all come down to where LSU and USC dropped in the polls to see who would go UG or UM.


Art

Jesus Malverde

It would be like that year when Florida State went to play in the championship, when all the big shots lost the last week. I would rather see LSU, USC or Michigan play Oklahoma, those would be good games for at least the first half. Georgia would get their ass kicked by a lot.

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Liquor Dealer

Doesn't matter which one it is - they're gonna' "get their ass kicked by a lot!"

ghobber

I think Michigan could play w/ OU , Navarre would have to have a hell of a game though
not sure about UGA, Im just not impressed with them

djtestudo

This is the exact reason why the BCS must go. There is no way that winning ANY game, let alone your CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, should penalize you.

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