2008 MLB Previews

[djtestudo]

Baltimore Orioles

2007 Record: 69-93 (.426), fourth place, AL East

2007 Pythagorean Record: 71-91 (756 runs scored, 868 runs allowed)

Off-season Review:

The Orioles finished with a losing record for the tenth consecutive season in 2007, so major changes needed to be made. Unlike in previous years, they were.

Team president Andy MacPhail, with the blessing of owner Peter Angelos, made two of the biggest trades of any made this off-season.

First, shortstop Miguel Tejada was traded to the Houston Astros for a package built around outfielder Luke Scott and young starters Matt Albers and Troy Patton. Also in the deal were reliever Dennis Sarfate and minor-league infielder Mike Costanzo.

Scott, though 29, has only three years of experience in the majors, and based on his statistics should have had a better chance with an offensively-challenged Astros club. Patton was on the fast track to a rotation slot in Baltimore before an injury, and both Albers and Sarfate will likely start the season in the majors.

After several months of dancing with multiple teams, ace starter Erik Bedard was traded to Seattle for outfielder Adam Jones (not THAT one), reliever George Sherrill, and pitching prospect Chris Tillman. Also included were minor-league pitchers Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler.

Adam Jones is being compared to Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones, while Sherrill will be the closer for the Orioles. Although sent to the minors, Tillman reportedly had jaws dropping at spring training, and could be the team's best pitching prospect.

2008 Preview:

Offense - The Orioles were ninth in the American League in runs scored in 2007.

Miguel Tejada and Corey Patterson are gone, and Jay Payton is no longer a starting outfielder. In their place are Jones, who has struggled in limited major-league plate appearances while destroying AAA the past two years, and Scott, who had an .855 OPS and 18 home runs in only 425 PAs last year.

At shortstop will probably be Luis Hernandez, though that item shouldn't go in offense. He has a career .621 OPS in the minors, and would be starting solely for defensive purposes.

For the offense to improve any real amount will take rebound years by several players, most notably catcher Ramon Hernandez, third baseman Melvin Mora and first baseman/designated hitter Aubrey Huff.

Hernandez, after a great 2006 in his first year in Baltimore, struggled through a 2007 filled with injuries and questions about his defense and desire. Those questions should be answered this year, with top prospect (and top-fifteen prospect in all of baseball) Matt Wieters breathing down his neck.

Mora seemed to have his moods dictated by Tejada during the shortstop's time in Baltimore. With that distraction gone, he is hitting in spring training and though 36 could still have several productive years left as a late-bloomer.

Huff was the big off-season signing last year, but drew the wrath of the fans in Baltimore with a terrible first half. However, as he has done historically, his second half was as good as the first was bad. He increased his OPS by .200+ points (to .897) and hit three more home runs (9) in more then 60 fewer PAs.

The only two real locks for success in 2008 are second baseman Brian Roberts and outfielder Nick Markakis.

Roberts hit .290 with an .809 OPS and 50 stolen bases (88%). However, there is a pretty good chance that he could still be traded before the beginning of the season. But that's another post

Markakis is going to be a household name by the end of the season. He had 23 home runs (leading the team) and 112 RBIs with an .847 OPS...and he turned 24 in November. He is very good defensively as well.

Pitching - The Orioles allowed 868 runs with a 5.17 ERA, both 13th in the league (thank goodness for Tampa Bay).

The Orioles lost a lefty and gained a lefty this year. Bedard is gone, but Adam Loewen, who had a 3.56 ERA in six starts before a season-ending injury, returns.

Jeremy Guthrie was the surprise pitcher in 2007, coming via a waiver claim from Cleveland and finishing the season with a 3.7 ERA 175 innings. This performance earned him the start on Opening Day this year. He needs to answer questions about whether he was a fluke, especially with a 5.03 ERA in the second half of 2007.

Steve Trachsel, despite walking 25 more batters then he struck out in 2007, was resigned (after being traded to the Cubs in August) to be a veteran on the staff and eat innings to save the young pitchers in the bullpen. And that's about it.

Daniel Cabrera is both the living embodiment of Nuke LaLoosh, and the eternal frustration of Orioles fans. He can walk more then he strikes out in one start, pitch a nine-inning, three-hit, double-digit strikeout game the next, and follow that with a game where he's knocked out by the third inning. He is running out of chances, but man, when he's on...

The final spot in the rotation still has yet to be decided, but appears to be down to Albers, who struggled in 18 starts in Houston, and Brian Burres, who struggled in 17 starts in Baltimore.

The bullpen has been revamped for 2008. As few as two pitchers will still be around from the end of last season.

Those two are Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker, who were signed to improve the bullpen last year, and did their part even if few others did.

The closer will be Sherrill, who was a situational lefty in Seattle. A team like these Orioles really doesn't NEED a closer, but a veteran like Sherrill will both stabilize the rest of the bullpen, and if he racks up saves could be a great trading chip at the trade deadline or next off-season for the saves-obsessed teams in baseball.

The rest of the bullpen will be guys with potential who are generally unproven. Guys like Sarfate, Rocky Cherry (yes, his real name), Greg Aquino (a waiver claim who seems to be the next-in-line to close), and Randor Bierd (picked in the Rule 5 draft).

Bench/Minors - The bench as about as good as it can be on a team like this.

Payton will be the primary backup outfielder. Jay Gibbons will be in the mix as well, mostly because he is owed an insane amount of money (and it is hard to believe that at one time he did deserve it).

In the infield will be Freddie Bynum, when he comes off the DL, and Scott Moore, who came over in last year's Trachsel trade and who is a decent prospect who has had a fantastic spring.

The backup catcher is Guillermo Quiroz, who was once a top prospect with Toronto, and who will at the very least be an upgrade over past Orioles backups like Sal Fasano and Paul Bako.

For the first time in a long time, there is actual depth in some areas of the minor leagues that could help.

Some fans are starting to ask if the rotation at AAA Norfolk could be better then the one in Baltimore. Four guys with major-league experience could start there, including former top prospect Hayden Penn (who is still 23 and only not in Baltimore due to two years of injuries), Garrett Olsen (dominated at AAA), and Radhames Liz (dominated at AA).

Also close to major-league ready is outfielder Nolan Reimold. He came back from an injury last year with a .930 OPS and 11 home runs in 203 AA PAs.

Top prospect Weiters will likely start at high A ball, but most expect him to advance quickly and be in Baltimore by Opening Day 2009, if not this September.

Conclusion:

The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team. In their division they are no better then the fourth-best team, and are probably destined for last place.

However, this team is not built for 2008. Andy MacPhail seems to have put this team back on the right track after a decade-long derailment, and he is nowhere near done.

Personally, I am excited about watching this team, and more people around Baltimore seem to be paying attention, because of the knowledge that we aren't just watching the 2008 Orioles, but also the development of contenders in 2010 and 2011, or maybe even 2009.

2008 Predictions:

Lineup:

2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
RF Nick Markakis
1B Kevin Millar
DH Aubrey Huff
CA Ramon Hernandez
LF Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
SS Luis Hernandez

Starting Rotation:

Jeremy Guthrie
Steve Trachsel
Daniel Cabrera
Adam Loewen
Matt Albers

Bullpen:

George Sherrill (Closer)
Chad Bradford
Jamie Walker
Greg Aquino
Brian Burres
Dennis Sarfate
Randor Bierd

2008 Final Record: 67-95, fifth place, AL East

[Halx]

LA Dodgers: If our kids come through, we're winning it all.

[djtestudo]

Originally Posted by Halx

LA Dodgers: If our kids come through, we're winning it all.

Succinct...

[Fotzlid]

I would like to see a repeat, but know that is a long shot. Tigers look real good this year and the Jays might make a chase of it.

[Ilow]

Originally Posted by Halx

LA Dodgers: If our kids come through, we're winning it all.

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Great job being pricks btw, guys, and requiring that the Red Sox not use the DH in AN EXHIBITION GAME. I'm sure no fans would have enjoyed seeing David Ortiz take hacks at feeble National League pitching.

[Glory's Sun]

The Dodgers will be in the hunt but they'll fall short. The NL is just too tight.

Boston started where they left off with Manny being a hero and all Good to see the season started off the right way.

I'll take the Indians over Detroit in the AL Central. Detroit just has too many question marks in their pitching staff to take them for the win. The Blue Jays should take second in the AL East, but they'll only do it if they stay healthy.

[The_Jazz]

Originally Posted by Halx

LA Dodgers: If our kids come through, we're winning it all.

That statement can be used for every single major league team, including the Royals. Actually, it could be used for every single team that's competing in the future. It's a phrase I use every fall to describe the Vol's chances during college footballs season.

[QuasiMondo]

The Mets: If they're healthy come September (and don't suffer another late summer meltdown), they might make it all the way.

[Halx]

Originally Posted by Ilow

If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. Great job being pricks btw, guys, and requiring that the Red Sox not use the DH in AN EXHIBITION GAME. I'm sure no fans would have enjoyed seeing David Ortiz take hacks at feeble National League pitching.

What the hell is that all about? Everyone knows you play by the home team's league's rules.

[Ilow]

Originally Posted by Halx

What the hell is that all about? Everyone knows you play by the home team's league's rules.

When the games count. This is an EXHIBITION game. If the Dodgers come to Fenway for an exhibition game and want to have their pitcher bat, I'm sure the Red Sox would have no problem with it

[djtestudo]

Originally Posted by Ilow

When the games count. This is an EXHIBITION game. If the Dodgers come to Fenway for an exhibition game and want to have their pitcher bat, I'm sure the Red Sox would have no problem with it

And I guess if the Red Sox want no ball-strike counts during the game, just pitching until contact is made, they should do that too?

[Halx]

So sensitive, Ilow. That's just the way things go; even in exhibition games. Teams play interleague all the time in pre-season games and it is ALWAYS like this. Talk about a bad point to pick on.

[The_Jazz]

I can't believe you idiots are arguing over exhibition game rules. Of ALL the things out there to talk about, like the Red Sox strike or the fact that Denver might actually have pitching this year, this is the most important topic of the day?

Then again, the topic in Chicago is what the new song should be played to introduce Kerry Wood in his new closing rule. Carry on.

[Ilow]

Originally Posted by Halx

So sensitive, Ilow. That's just the way things go; even in exhibition games. Teams play interleague all the time in pre-season games and it is ALWAYS like this. Talk about a bad point to pick on.

I honestly don't care that much, it just struck me as petty that's all. Ortiz is one of the high profile players in the league and I think that there are people who would like to see him play, that's all.

[Halx]

Following the league rules is petty? Please, stop.

[djtestudo]

Originally Posted by Ilow

I honestly don't care that much, it just struck me as petty that's all. Ortiz is one of the high profile players in the league and I think that there are people who would like to see him play, that's all.

You didn't answer my question. Where do you stop?

Maybe Terry Francona wanted to get his pitchers live-game batting practice for interleague play?

[Fotzlid]

Originally Posted by djtestudo

You didn't answer my question. Where do you stop?

Yeah...next thing you know, people will want to marry their pets.

wait....wrong thread....

*staggers out

[Ilow]

Originally Posted by djtestudo

You didn't answer my question. Where do you stop?

Maybe Terry Francona wanted to get his pitchers live-game batting practice for interleague play?

There is no telling where it will stop, but enjoy watching David Ortiz in all three Dodgers games, as the Dodgers have finally changed their mind and granted the Red Sox request to use the DH during games. Probably has something to do with the close relationship that Torre and Francona have. No word yet if the Dodgers pitchers will bat. Not to belabor this really insignificant topic much more, but it is not without precedent, as teams like the Giants used to request to use the DH in exhibition games with Bonds even though they are an NL team.

[Mister Coaster]

You see, Hal... this is why I stay out of the Baseball discussion topics. I learned my lesson last season. I think its best to just spout off when your team does well and slink back into the shadows when they falter. Because other people "know more than you do" therefore your opinion is always second best.

Go Angles!

[Glory's Sun]

oh come on coaster..

bantering back and forth is part of what makes baseball fun..

[Leto]

Originally Posted by Fotzlid

I would like to see a repeat, but know that is a long shot. Tigers look real good this year and the Jays might make a chase of it.

Not to sound like a 'homer' but I've heard similar things, and that the Blue Jays are the team to watch. Last night's season opener at Yankee Stadium was a low scoring game, and even though the line on the Jays is that it will be easy to steal, that was not the case.

* interest growing this season...

[Derwood]

Cubs off to a typically awesome start

[djtestudo]

Orioles are .500!

[pan6467]

How about that Bannister kid in KC????? WOW!!!!!!!!

[Ilow]

Originally Posted by pan6467

How about that Bannister kid in KC????? WOW!!!!!!!!

Yeah, I guess he's got a little greg maddux in him or something. Detroit's offense has yet to come around though. I'll be surprised if it doesn't (except for rentaria, of course, I never thought he'd show his face in the AL again).

[Glory's Sun]

Originally Posted by Ilow

Yeah, I guess he's got a little greg maddux in him or something. Detroit's offense has yet to come around though. I'll be surprised if it doesn't (except for rentaria, of course, I never thought he'd show his face in the AL again).

he just needs to keep his face out of Boston.. fucking underachiever

The Tigers will be fine.. if their bullpen holds up..

The Cubbies.. well they don't have a 17 game winner with the exception of Z. I'll take the Brewers in that division.. if they keep Gagne on the bench.

Who knows who will win the AL West.. with K-Rod gone in LA.. it's a tossup.

[djtestudo]

So...is Boston where shortstops go to die? The Curse of Nomar?

[Derwood]

Cubs finally get it going today. hopefully they can take at least 2 against Houston this weekend

[Glory's Sun]

Originally Posted by djtestudo

So...is Boston where shortstops go to die? The Curse of Nomar?

That's pretty much how it works.

Although, if Lugo could hit the ball.. it would be different.

[djtestudo]

Baltimore Orioles - 4-1, first place AL East!

Look out Yankees and Sox!

[Leto]

and the Blue Jays Sweep the Bosox...


Looks like an interesting season shaping up!

[Ilow]

Originally Posted by Leto

and the Blue Jays Sweep the Bosox...


Looks like an interesting season shaping up!

Yeah, the Jays often have the Sox number like the Rays do for the Yanks. We'll see later in the season how the Sox look against them when the haven't traveled on a 20,000 mile road trip through 3 countries.

It will be an interesting season, for sure. Has anyone else noticed that Griffey Jr. Is quietly almost to 600 home runs? When you consider how much time he has spent on the DL over the last decade, it's amazing to think that mashers like Manny Ramirez and Frank Thomas are still almost 100 behind him and nearly the same age.

[Leto]

Originally Posted by Ilow

...We'll see later in the season how the Sox look against them when the haven't traveled on a 20,000 mile road trip through 3 countries.

....

A very good point that is often overlooked. I am not a smug Jays fan and really look forward to seeing what can happen as the season progresses. Plus I'll keep on rooting for Frank Thomas to "quietly" gain on Griffey Jr...

[djtestudo]

Originally Posted by Ilow

Yeah, the Jays often have the Sox number like the Rays do for the Yanks. We'll see later in the season how the Sox look against them when the haven't traveled on a 20,000 mile road trip through 3 countries.

It will be an interesting season, for sure. Has anyone else noticed that Griffey Jr. Is quietly almost to 600 home runs? When you consider how much time he has spent on the DL over the last decade, it's amazing to think that mashers like Manny Ramirez and Frank Thomas are still almost 100 behind him and nearly the same age.

Well, Thomas has spent a significant time on the DL too

It's great to see Griffey still playing. Before his injuries and Bonds doing whatever he did, he was easily the best player of this generation.

[Ustwo]

The White Sox amazingly don't seem to suck this year as I predicted.

[Mojo_PeiPei]

Originally Posted by Ustwo

The White Sox amazingly don't seem to suck this year as I predicted.

It's a little early in the season to read the winds. As it stands now, the Tigers blow, the Tribe is strong, the Royals are surprising. That leaves my twinks: They are mentally daft in the front office right now, apparently we are playing for our new ball park to open all the same... the Wild card is coming through the Central.. who will it be?

Dodgers could be dangerous their division sucks.
The NL central is tough, betting it comes down to the Brew crew and Cards.
NL East? It's the Mets to loose.

Al East??? Yankee's? Boston... 162 games is a lot to deal with.
Al West? People are giving the edge to the Mariners; the Angels do have a softened staff.

All I can honestly say about baseball season is that I don't have to worry about turning on espn and watching 3-4 hours of football live. Thank God.

[kutulu]

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei

Dodgers could be dangerous their division sucks.
The NL central is tough, betting it comes down to the Brew crew and Cards.
NL East? It's the Mets to loose.

???

The NL West has 4 damn good teams and with the exception of Santana, all of the best NL pitchers are there. Obviously I'm going with the DBacks.

The NL Central sucks, the Brewers should win that.


Speaking of the DBacks, they hit 4 HRs against the Dodgers last night. They also gave their CF a 6 year/30 M extension.

[Mojo_PeiPei]

You're right forgot about D-Backs and Rockies. But Giants and Padres blow something fierce.

[djtestudo]

(Originally Posted by another poster, TGO, at OriolesHangout.com...)

I do hereby refpectfully fubmit the BULLPEN of Ye Lord BALTIMORE'S ORIOLES of the Year of Our Lord, 2008 Anno Domino, for recognition as the greateft collection of men fince the noble group that did so afsemble in Philadelphia, in the COMMONWEALTH of Pennfylvania, in the Year of Our Lord, 1776 Anno Domino, to declare INDEPENDENCE of a new nation and to fpit in the face of the tyrant King George, being a moft cruel and petty dictator, fuch men including the noble SIRS Wafhington, Jefferfon, Adams, Franklin, Madifon, Hancock, and of courfe, the REPRESENTATIVES OF THE STATE OF MARYLAND, SIRS Charles Carroll, Samuel Chafe, William Paca, and Thomas Stone.

SUCH Submifsion being made, the matter fhall be put to vote of the parties afsembled, to recognife the GREATNESS of George Friederich Sherrill of Tennefsee, Matthew James Albers of Texas, Chadwick Lee Bradford of Mifsifsippi, James Rofs Walker of Tennefsee, Gregori Emilio Aquino of the Ifland of Hifpaniola, and Randor Bierd of the Ifland of Hifpaniola.

[kutulu]

Originally Posted by Mojo_PeiPei

You're right forgot about D-Backs and Rockies. But Giants and Padres blow something fierce.

As much as I hate the Giants, I can't help but feel sorry for what this season could be for them. The worst thing is that 2 great young pitchers (Cain and Lincencum) are going to waste. I also don't count the Padres out. They have sick pitching.