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djtestudo · 03-24-2008, 04:07 PM

Baltimore Orioles

2007 Record: 69-93 (.426), fourth place, AL East

2007 Pythagorean Record: 71-91 (756 runs scored, 868 runs allowed)

Off-season Review:

The Orioles finished with a losing record for the tenth consecutive season in 2007, so major changes needed to be made. Unlike in previous years, they were.

Team president Andy MacPhail, with the blessing of owner Peter Angelos, made two of the biggest trades of any made this off-season.

First, shortstop Miguel Tejada was traded to the Houston Astros for a package built around outfielder Luke Scott and young starters Matt Albers and Troy Patton. Also in the deal were reliever Dennis Sarfate and minor-league infielder Mike Costanzo.

Scott, though 29, has only three years of experience in the majors, and based on his statistics should have had a better chance with an offensively-challenged Astros club. Patton was on the fast track to a rotation slot in Baltimore before an injury, and both Albers and Sarfate will likely start the season in the majors.

After several months of dancing with multiple teams, ace starter Erik Bedard was traded to Seattle for outfielder Adam Jones (not THAT one), reliever George Sherrill, and pitching prospect Chris Tillman. Also included were minor-league pitchers Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler.

Adam Jones is being compared to Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones, while Sherrill will be the closer for the Orioles. Although sent to the minors, Tillman reportedly had jaws dropping at spring training, and could be the team's best pitching prospect.

2008 Preview:

Offense - The Orioles were ninth in the American League in runs scored in 2007.

Miguel Tejada and Corey Patterson are gone, and Jay Payton is no longer a starting outfielder. In their place are Jones, who has struggled in limited major-league plate appearances while destroying AAA the past two years, and Scott, who had an .855 OPS and 18 home runs in only 425 PAs last year.

At shortstop will probably be Luis Hernandez, though that item shouldn't go in offense. He has a career .621 OPS in the minors, and would be starting solely for defensive purposes.

For the offense to improve any real amount will take rebound years by several players, most notably catcher Ramon Hernandez, third baseman Melvin Mora and first baseman/designated hitter Aubrey Huff.

Hernandez, after a great 2006 in his first year in Baltimore, struggled through a 2007 filled with injuries and questions about his defense and desire. Those questions should be answered this year, with top prospect (and top-fifteen prospect in all of baseball) Matt Wieters breathing down his neck.

Mora seemed to have his moods dictated by Tejada during the shortstop's time in Baltimore. With that distraction gone, he is hitting in spring training and though 36 could still have several productive years left as a late-bloomer.

Huff was the big off-season signing last year, but drew the wrath of the fans in Baltimore with a terrible first half. However, as he has done historically, his second half was as good as the first was bad. He increased his OPS by .200+ points (to .897) and hit three more home runs (9) in more then 60 fewer PAs.

The only two real locks for success in 2008 are second baseman Brian Roberts and outfielder Nick Markakis.

Roberts hit .290 with an .809 OPS and 50 stolen bases (88%). However, there is a pretty good chance that he could still be traded before the beginning of the season. But that's another post

Markakis is going to be a household name by the end of the season. He had 23 home runs (leading the team) and 112 RBIs with an .847 OPS...and he turned 24 in November. He is very good defensively as well.

Pitching - The Orioles allowed 868 runs with a 5.17 ERA, both 13th in the league (thank goodness for Tampa Bay).

The Orioles lost a lefty and gained a lefty this year. Bedard is gone, but Adam Loewen, who had a 3.56 ERA in six starts before a season-ending injury, returns.

Jeremy Guthrie was the surprise pitcher in 2007, coming via a waiver claim from Cleveland and finishing the season with a 3.7 ERA 175 innings. This performance earned him the start on Opening Day this year. He needs to answer questions about whether he was a fluke, especially with a 5.03 ERA in the second half of 2007.

Steve Trachsel, despite walking 25 more batters then he struck out in 2007, was resigned (after being traded to the Cubs in August) to be a veteran on the staff and eat innings to save the young pitchers in the bullpen. And that's about it.

Daniel Cabrera is both the living embodiment of Nuke LaLoosh, and the eternal frustration of Orioles fans. He can walk more then he strikes out in one start, pitch a nine-inning, three-hit, double-digit strikeout game the next, and follow that with a game where he's knocked out by the third inning. He is running out of chances, but man, when he's on...

The final spot in the rotation still has yet to be decided, but appears to be down to Albers, who struggled in 18 starts in Houston, and Brian Burres, who struggled in 17 starts in Baltimore.

The bullpen has been revamped for 2008. As few as two pitchers will still be around from the end of last season.

Those two are Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker, who were signed to improve the bullpen last year, and did their part even if few others did.

The closer will be Sherrill, who was a situational lefty in Seattle. A team like these Orioles really doesn't NEED a closer, but a veteran like Sherrill will both stabilize the rest of the bullpen, and if he racks up saves could be a great trading chip at the trade deadline or next off-season for the saves-obsessed teams in baseball.

The rest of the bullpen will be guys with potential who are generally unproven. Guys like Sarfate, Rocky Cherry (yes, his real name), Greg Aquino (a waiver claim who seems to be the next-in-line to close), and Randor Bierd (picked in the Rule 5 draft).

Bench/Minors - The bench as about as good as it can be on a team like this.

Payton will be the primary backup outfielder. Jay Gibbons will be in the mix as well, mostly because he is owed an insane amount of money (and it is hard to believe that at one time he did deserve it).

In the infield will be Freddie Bynum, when he comes off the DL, and Scott Moore, who came over in last year's Trachsel trade and who is a decent prospect who has had a fantastic spring.

The backup catcher is Guillermo Quiroz, who was once a top prospect with Toronto, and who will at the very least be an upgrade over past Orioles backups like Sal Fasano and Paul Bako.

For the first time in a long time, there is actual depth in some areas of the minor leagues that could help.

Some fans are starting to ask if the rotation at AAA Norfolk could be better then the one in Baltimore. Four guys with major-league experience could start there, including former top prospect Hayden Penn (who is still 23 and only not in Baltimore due to two years of injuries), Garrett Olsen (dominated at AAA), and Radhames Liz (dominated at AA).

Also close to major-league ready is outfielder Nolan Reimold. He came back from an injury last year with a .930 OPS and 11 home runs in 203 AA PAs.

Top prospect Weiters will likely start at high A ball, but most expect him to advance quickly and be in Baltimore by Opening Day 2009, if not this September.

Conclusion:

The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team. In their division they are no better then the fourth-best team, and are probably destined for last place.

However, this team is not built for 2008. Andy MacPhail seems to have put this team back on the right track after a decade-long derailment, and he is nowhere near done.

Personally, I am excited about watching this team, and more people around Baltimore seem to be paying attention, because of the knowledge that we aren't just watching the 2008 Orioles, but also the development of contenders in 2010 and 2011, or maybe even 2009.

2008 Predictions:

Lineup:

2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
RF Nick Markakis
1B Kevin Millar
DH Aubrey Huff
CA Ramon Hernandez
LF Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
SS Luis Hernandez

Starting Rotation:

Jeremy Guthrie
Steve Trachsel
Daniel Cabrera
Adam Loewen
Matt Albers

Bullpen:

George Sherrill (Closer)
Chad Bradford
Jamie Walker
Greg Aquino
Brian Burres
Dennis Sarfate
Randor Bierd

2008 Final Record: 67-95, fifth place, AL East

03-24-2008, 04:07 PM	#1 (permalink)
djtestudo Baltimoron Location: Beeeeeautiful Bel Air, MD	2008 MLB Previews Baltimore Orioles 2007 Record: 69-93 (.426), fourth place, AL East 2007 Pythagorean Record: 71-91 (756 runs scored, 868 runs allowed) Off-season Review: The Orioles finished with a losing record for the tenth consecutive season in 2007, so major changes needed to be made. Unlike in previous years, they were. Team president Andy MacPhail, with the blessing of owner Peter Angelos, made two of the biggest trades of any made this off-season. First, shortstop Miguel Tejada was traded to the Houston Astros for a package built around outfielder Luke Scott and young starters Matt Albers and Troy Patton. Also in the deal were reliever Dennis Sarfate and minor-league infielder Mike Costanzo. Scott, though 29, has only three years of experience in the majors, and based on his statistics should have had a better chance with an offensively-challenged Astros club. Patton was on the fast track to a rotation slot in Baltimore before an injury, and both Albers and Sarfate will likely start the season in the majors. After several months of dancing with multiple teams, ace starter Erik Bedard was traded to Seattle for outfielder Adam Jones (not THAT one), reliever George Sherrill, and pitching prospect Chris Tillman. Also included were minor-league pitchers Kam Mickolio and Tony Butler. Adam Jones is being compared to Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones, while Sherrill will be the closer for the Orioles. Although sent to the minors, Tillman reportedly had jaws dropping at spring training, and could be the team's best pitching prospect. 2008 Preview: Offense - The Orioles were ninth in the American League in runs scored in 2007. Miguel Tejada and Corey Patterson are gone, and Jay Payton is no longer a starting outfielder. In their place are Jones, who has struggled in limited major-league plate appearances while destroying AAA the past two years, and Scott, who had an .855 OPS and 18 home runs in only 425 PAs last year. At shortstop will probably be Luis Hernandez, though that item shouldn't go in offense. He has a career .621 OPS in the minors, and would be starting solely for defensive purposes. For the offense to improve any real amount will take rebound years by several players, most notably catcher Ramon Hernandez, third baseman Melvin Mora and first baseman/designated hitter Aubrey Huff. Hernandez, after a great 2006 in his first year in Baltimore, struggled through a 2007 filled with injuries and questions about his defense and desire. Those questions should be answered this year, with top prospect (and top-fifteen prospect in all of baseball) Matt Wieters breathing down his neck. Mora seemed to have his moods dictated by Tejada during the shortstop's time in Baltimore. With that distraction gone, he is hitting in spring training and though 36 could still have several productive years left as a late-bloomer. Huff was the big off-season signing last year, but drew the wrath of the fans in Baltimore with a terrible first half. However, as he has done historically, his second half was as good as the first was bad. He increased his OPS by .200+ points (to .897) and hit three more home runs (9) in more then 60 fewer PAs. The only two real locks for success in 2008 are second baseman Brian Roberts and outfielder Nick Markakis. Roberts hit .290 with an .809 OPS and 50 stolen bases (88%). However, there is a pretty good chance that he could still be traded before the beginning of the season. But that's another post Markakis is going to be a household name by the end of the season. He had 23 home runs (leading the team) and 112 RBIs with an .847 OPS...and he turned 24 in November. He is very good defensively as well. Pitching - The Orioles allowed 868 runs with a 5.17 ERA, both 13th in the league (thank goodness for Tampa Bay). The Orioles lost a lefty and gained a lefty this year. Bedard is gone, but Adam Loewen, who had a 3.56 ERA in six starts before a season-ending injury, returns. Jeremy Guthrie was the surprise pitcher in 2007, coming via a waiver claim from Cleveland and finishing the season with a 3.7 ERA 175 innings. This performance earned him the start on Opening Day this year. He needs to answer questions about whether he was a fluke, especially with a 5.03 ERA in the second half of 2007. Steve Trachsel, despite walking 25 more batters then he struck out in 2007, was resigned (after being traded to the Cubs in August) to be a veteran on the staff and eat innings to save the young pitchers in the bullpen. And that's about it. Daniel Cabrera is both the living embodiment of Nuke LaLoosh, and the eternal frustration of Orioles fans. He can walk more then he strikes out in one start, pitch a nine-inning, three-hit, double-digit strikeout game the next, and follow that with a game where he's knocked out by the third inning. He is running out of chances, but man, when he's on... The final spot in the rotation still has yet to be decided, but appears to be down to Albers, who struggled in 18 starts in Houston, and Brian Burres, who struggled in 17 starts in Baltimore. The bullpen has been revamped for 2008. As few as two pitchers will still be around from the end of last season. Those two are Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker, who were signed to improve the bullpen last year, and did their part even if few others did. The closer will be Sherrill, who was a situational lefty in Seattle. A team like these Orioles really doesn't NEED a closer, but a veteran like Sherrill will both stabilize the rest of the bullpen, and if he racks up saves could be a great trading chip at the trade deadline or next off-season for the saves-obsessed teams in baseball. The rest of the bullpen will be guys with potential who are generally unproven. Guys like Sarfate, Rocky Cherry (yes, his real name), Greg Aquino (a waiver claim who seems to be the next-in-line to close), and Randor Bierd (picked in the Rule 5 draft). Bench/Minors - The bench as about as good as it can be on a team like this. Payton will be the primary backup outfielder. Jay Gibbons will be in the mix as well, mostly because he is owed an insane amount of money (and it is hard to believe that at one time he did deserve it). In the infield will be Freddie Bynum, when he comes off the DL, and Scott Moore, who came over in last year's Trachsel trade and who is a decent prospect who has had a fantastic spring. The backup catcher is Guillermo Quiroz, who was once a top prospect with Toronto, and who will at the very least be an upgrade over past Orioles backups like Sal Fasano and Paul Bako. For the first time in a long time, there is actual depth in some areas of the minor leagues that could help. Some fans are starting to ask if the rotation at AAA Norfolk could be better then the one in Baltimore. Four guys with major-league experience could start there, including former top prospect Hayden Penn (who is still 23 and only not in Baltimore due to two years of injuries), Garrett Olsen (dominated at AAA), and Radhames Liz (dominated at AA). Also close to major-league ready is outfielder Nolan Reimold. He came back from an injury last year with a .930 OPS and 11 home runs in 203 AA PAs. Top prospect Weiters will likely start at high A ball, but most expect him to advance quickly and be in Baltimore by Opening Day 2009, if not this September. Conclusion: The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team. In their division they are no better then the fourth-best team, and are probably destined for last place. However, this team is not built for 2008. Andy MacPhail seems to have put this team back on the right track after a decade-long derailment, and he is nowhere near done. Personally, I am excited about watching this team, and more people around Baltimore seem to be paying attention, because of the knowledge that we aren't just watching the 2008 Orioles, but also the development of contenders in 2010 and 2011, or maybe even 2009. 2008 Predictions: Lineup: 2B Brian Roberts 3B Melvin Mora RF Nick Markakis 1B Kevin Millar DH Aubrey Huff CA Ramon Hernandez LF Luke Scott CF Adam Jones SS Luis Hernandez Starting Rotation: Jeremy Guthrie Steve Trachsel Daniel Cabrera Adam Loewen Matt Albers Bullpen: George Sherrill (Closer) Chad Bradford Jamie Walker Greg Aquino Brian Burres Dennis Sarfate Randor Bierd 2008 Final Record: 67-95, fifth place, AL East __________________ "Final thought: I just rented Michael Moore's Bowling for Columbine. Frankly, it was the worst sports movie I've ever seen." --Peter Schmuck, The (Baltimore) Sun