Canada: Canadian Elelction - 2006
 

As you all know the Liberal minority government fell last night to a non-confidence vote.

The PM is off to the Govenor General's residence this morning to disolve the Parliament and call the election.

This is the thread where we can chat about all the issues and the progress of the parties...


Are we just going to see more of the same or will see something new. Interestingly it looks like we will have one of the longest campaigns in 25 years... EDIT: Election Day was just announced: JANUARY 23, 2006).
A lot can change in the next couple months...


My best case scenario is a minority Government with the NDP holding a significant balance of power. I don't see the Liberals and the Conservatives working well together on most things but either can work with the NDP to created a working minority government.

I just starting following this on CNN and BBC in the last couple days. I know very little about Canadian politics other than the fact that unemployment is at a 30 year and there is an economic budget surplus.

I do know the conservative party in Canada is trying to build bridges with the Cons in the US. They seem to be working from a similar playbook as well. Any education you guys up north can offer on this would be appreciated.

Sho Nuff: Have you got a few days? :lol:

It's a pretty broad topic. Perhaps if you had some specific questions, it might be easier.

I foresee a Liberal minority with the Libs take a few more seats than last time, the Conservatives coming in second, the Bloc third and NDP 4th. ONly one independant will win a seat this time. No Greens either, alas, not yet.

The Tories will then replace Harper with someone with character and charisma like Peter McKay or Bernard Lord, in time for the next election 18 months hence.

I further predict Belinda Stronach and I will become an item, resulting in my untimely death at the hands of my wife.

:lol:

I think Belinda might have a lot of time on her hands after the election... I don't think she's going back to Ottawa (unless it's on your arm).

The timing of the election with depend entirely upon how strong the NDP are... They really didn't have enough seats to carry the vote this time. If they are convincingly in the house I can't see Layton bringing down the government again... he's too much of a let's get something done type of guy (hence all the deal making... it's what he was like in Toronto municipal government as well).

This short lived governement is an anomoly in Canadian politics. No other minority government has been brought down like this (a non-confidence motion as opposed to being defeated over a budget or something like that).

I really think Martin is making a mountain out a molehill with the whole campaign over the holidays thing he keeps going on about... Does anyone but the politicians really care? Let's talk about something important.

ya I don't care when the election is held. Bring it on. the only problem is, I don't know who to vote for. Policy wise, I would vote for the PCs, if they were in the federal arena, perhaps with Martin or Tory or McKay at the helm. (notice that I don't distinguish between Liberal or PC).

I heard that Olivia Chow was going to run in this election. Will she finally stop going back to city counsellor if this bid doesn't go through???

She is announced that she will resign her seat this time and she will not return to city politics. I am pretty sure she wants to be with her husband (Jack Layton), regardless of whether she wins the election or not.

I'd love to see Layton leading the NDP's in a balance of power position. I like Layton and I'm worried that if the Conservatives have their way we're going to see a lot of nasty things happening such as that two tier health care everybody's against and stronger ties with the Americans at any cost (does anybody else see the softwood dispute being completely swept under the rug?)

What I'm more worried about is the Bloc. They had a strong showing at the last election and with Liberal support falling across the country I could definitely see the gaining ground on former federalist ridings in Quebec. You think things are shaky now, just wait until Quebec makes another bid for sovereignty.

The Bloc is going to get more seats in Quebec... I think that is a given. The Liberals really fucked themselves in Quebec.

This will be one of the main reasons there won't be a Majority government.

Like Sho Nuff, I'm facinated by what is going on but lack an understanding of the parliment system. What is *really* astonishing is that you folks can discuss the possibilities without the personal rancor that your southern neighbors resort to. That is worth a front row seat by itself. :)

For Elphaba, Sho Nuff and others interested, wikipedia has a great article on the parliament of Canada as well as the issues at hand.

I don't think that the Liberals are going to win anymore seats than last time.

Think about it
If people are thinking about CHANGING your vote, after the last 18mths how many do you think are thinking about changing their Tory, NDP, Green, or
Bloc votes to Liberal votes. Probably not many.

The more likely situation is that the people that are considering CHANGING their vote are people who voted Liberal last time.

Consider this: Is there any reason why people who voted Tory, NDP, Green, or Bloc should be unhappy with thier decision? maybe a few but most voted for those parties because that is who they vote for. But for those that voted Liberal, are there any reasons why they might consider not voting liberal again? You bet.

I am not saying they they are right or wrong.I am just saying that people who change their mind about who they vote for are doing so becuase they want change.

Furthermore, the Liberals are likely to lose a few more seats in Quebec to the Bloc.

We will proably see the following:
- Liberals down a few (I figure close to 10, there are at least 5 seats at risk in Quebec)
- Block up a few
- Tories up one or two (they will probably make it over 100)
- NDP even

You are right, until one of the other major parties can start appealing to Quebecers again we are likely to be in Minority mode for a long time. Either that or the Liberals or Tories will have to bring on sombody spectacular (appealing to both Liberals and Conservatives) to lead in order to bump them over the 154 seat level. With Martin and Harper still in place we will be here for a while.

I agree with you when you say Harper but not Martin. He does appeal to BOTH Conservatives (of the PC sort) and Liberals.

The adscam mess isn't his, he just has to bear the brunt of the nations ire about it...


I think without the pall of adscam hanging over the last election, Martin would have cruised to a majority. As for this election, the scandal has been further exposed and confirmed with finality.

Two things I was thinking about over lunch:

1) Voter in BC and Ontario are in such a hurry to NOT vote Liberal that they split the vote between C and NDP and we end up with a Liberal majority...

2) Isn't it amazing that our government fell last night... and people aren't dying in the streets? Think about it for a moment.

thoughts from the east coast:

1) I'm in agreement that the Liberals will lose seats in Quebec (to the Bloc), but also figure they'll lose some others to retiring members (of which there were more than a handful standing last night).

2) The NDP, who really didn't have much to fear in supporting the motion, will remain the balance of power/swing vote, but will be a bigger target for Gilles and his garçons et filles.

3) I heard a great Rick Mercer rant about how the "winter election campaign" is really about 25 minutes of hardship for the electorate. It should come as no surprise that the biggest complainers are those who'll be donning the toques and galoshes.

4) and this is just for fun: From today's Halifax Chronicle Herald:

http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/toons/Brucex29.jpg

I heard a make a big mistake yesterday in her announcement - she blamed people "new to her riding" for defeat last time because they were ignorant of her wonderful work.

Yeah, like they're gonna vote for you now, after you just told them they were ignorant!

She says she will quit municipal politics for good this time. Somehow I doubt it.

I see them maybe losing one or two Quebec seats but no more than that - the choice in Quebec is Liberal or Bloc - and there's not a lot of switching between them.

I think the NDP will lose seats to the Liberals, perhaps several. And the Liberals can pick up from former independent ridings also.

highthief - I disagree re: Quebec. Or rather I agree, but those one or two seats are going to be crucial. My guess is that the Bloc and NDP will pick up seats, with the Bloc gaining ground in Quebec and NDP in Ontario. The West is still the same conservative bastion it always was according to what I've seen, which leaves me to wonder what's going to happen in the maritimes. That's the only region I don't really know about. My guesswork goes more towards a Conservative minority or possibly Liberal. It'll be one or the other but either way I suspect a dead heat, with only a handful of seats' difference between the two parties. That'll leave either the Bloc or NDP with the balance of power. Judging by polls and the current distribution of seats I'd have to put it to the Bloc but if we see any Green or independent candidates coming back to Parliament Hill things could get really interesting.

Current distribution is as follows :

Liberals - 133 seats
Tories - 98 seats
Bloc - 53 seats
NDP - 18 seats
Indie - 4 seats

With two vacant. My predictions would go somewhere to the following :

Liberals - 105 seats
Tories - 100 seats
Bloc - 56 seats
NDP - 47 seats

With a small margin of error allowing for independents and a bit of leeway between the Tories and the Libs. The dynamic this creates is really interesting, because if some independents manage to grab enough seats to swing between the Bloc and NDP we could see a split, with Tories and Bloc working together on one side, NDP and Libs on the other and the independents holding the real balance of power. Naturally the independents aren't going to be unified so that makes things more than a little unpredictable. Of course, we could also see the Bloc, NDP and Tories all gain up on the Libs something like this past government, which just creates an unstable dynamic again and means we'll be having this discussion all over again in a year or so.

And that still doesn't take into account a possible bid for independence in Quebec. If the soverigntists gain much more ground there it could be a very real possibility and losing Quebec, needless to say, would seriously jeopardize our economy.

Current distribution is as follows :

Liberals - 133 seats
Tories - 98 seats
Bloc - 53 seats
NDP - 18 seats
Indie - 4 seats

With two vacant. My predictions would go somewhere to the following :

Liberals - 137 seats
Tories - 100 seats
Bloc - 55 seats
NDP - 15 seats
Independant - 1 seat


Not that much change, as you can see. I think you are the victim of overly wishful thinking to imagine the NDP has a snowbal's chance of getting a sniff of 47 seats. They simply won't take any away from the Liberals. The only ones who can take any # of SUBSTANTIAL seats away from the Liberals are the Conservatives, in virtually any scenario you can imagine.

The Liberals are what the country actually wants - fiscally intelligent managers with liberal social policies with an excellent track record of managing the economy. Some voters are tired of the same party just on principle, and that is the Liberal's main weakness outside of Quebec.

Toss the Liberals and let's have a C minority. The C's won't be able to push thier more right wing agenda, but we can at least get a taste of what they have to offer. The thought of the NDP in power scares me (went through 10 years of them here in BC).

Sadly, I think Ont will vote Liberal again...hey what can I say, they're inbred out that way.... Charlatan said they were ;)

I am pumped for this election. I don't belong to any party or anything but I love the chance and opportunity to talk politics with friends and coworkers. Unfortunately unless there's an election, people round here don't seem keen in talking aobut issues and ideas.
On a personal note, I think that the Conservatives will take a minority government, with the Liberals just shy 4 or 5 seats. The bloc will pick up the rest and possible the NDP will drop a couple. Normally I would like to see the Conservatives in power, I'm not sure how they will handle a powerful Bloc segment though. I'll guess we'll see!

As for Belinda... she pissed me off when she crossed (loved watching her leave, hehe), I believe she would be an awesome leader for the Conservatives, quite possibly the only female candidate for Prime Ministry worth persuing. Just my thoughts.

Thanks, Martian. :icare:

Don't count out the Green Party just yet. They have a very solid platform...

Here's a good site for you. The guy does a great job providing details about Canada's government, as well as various other aspects of Canadian life. Plus his cartoons are kickass!

I just can't see the Libs picking up more seats. I think public opinion of them has dropped pretty drastically and the polls seem to support this. Ipsos-Reid as of this morning put Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck (31% of voter support each, +/-2) with the NDP and Bloc dividing the remainder between them. Every other poll actually shows a stronger voter support for NDP. Now granted that's popular vote and subject to change, but I could really see things shaking up in a big way.

EDIT - And remember, highthief, that there's a huge segment of the public who don't see any good coming out of the Tories or the Liberals. For those in Quebec that leaves the Bloc as the way to go, but for Ontario and the rest of the nation the only real alternative will be the New Democrats. Add into that that Jack Layton has (in my opinion) shown quite a bit of charisma so far and I can really see them picking up a lot of support here.

Hey, Martian, wanna place a friendly wager on who gets closer to the actual result?

Something like the loser has to have a phrase of the winner's choice (nothing too embarassing) in their sig for a month? What's your favourite hockey team?

Which is exactly what the polls said the last time there was an election, right before Martin walked away with a minority government, and Stephen Harper was left to sulk in his Cheerios.

Polls are nothing but shot-in-the-dark statistics, and give the media something to talk about during elections. In the end, there is only one poll that really matters.

Very true Quadratron... the other thing to remember is that we are in very early days. Not only do we have about two months until the election we also have a big break in the campaign rhetoric... you can bet things will be rather quiet in the week or so of Christmas.

Plenty can happen during this time.

Well its nice to see Harper got that whole uncomfortable Gay Marraige bit outta the closet early. Don't WE all feel better now.

Go Rhino Party? Yay?

I long for the day when Doug Henning jumps out of his grave riding a rainbow, and rescues us all with meditation and Yoga :D

Oh man, he'll be riding his purple unicorn and chanting peace and liberty to all!

THIS is the face of freedom, people. Behold and rejoice!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...f2/Henning.jpg

And it's not just in Canada, folks!
For those who need to be enlightened...

Here is a link to the Gay Marriage story: LINK


I can't believe Harper is playing this card. Big mistake. This will kill him in Ontario and anything like a Progressive Conservative vote that still exists out there...

Nothing like living up to what the Liberals are saying about him and his Social Conservative agenda... at least it isn't a secret agenda. ;)


Harper is never going to be PM.

I dunno, some people may buy into the whole "Free Vote", and this gets the issue out in the open NOW, rather than later. People have short memories and this could be a dead issue come time to vote, if its outta the way now.

Now I'm no fan of Harper and he's not getting my vote either way, but it may not have been a bad move to get this out of the closet now.

He got it out there... points for not hiding things. But, this will let everyone else paint him with the anti-Gay brush and the anti-Charter of Rights and Freedoms brush (ie social conservative).

The whole free vote thing is a bit of a bugaboo.

You're on!

Now, in the spirit of the agreement, I think we're going to need a neutral third party to judge who the winner is come election time - just to avoid any arguing. If you're up to it Charlatan, I'd say it looks to me like you're the man for the job.

I debated laying out some guidelines re: sportsmanship but decided against it, I think we're above that sort of thing. However, if you're in the GTA one thing I'd like to suggest is that the winner buys the loser a pint, just to show no hard feelings.

Other than that, you have yourself a deal.

And my favourite team is of course the blue and white, followed by the Red Wings and the Sens. Why do you ask?

I'm up to it if highthief will accept me as a "neutral judge".

I've copied down your predictions and will keep them handy until the election.

Well, you said it yourself. It's still early in the election, and there's no telling how this issue will affect the CPC. I really think this election is for Stephen Harper to lose, but once again, he's coming out too right-winged for the likes of Ontario and Quebec. If he wants to start making some headway into these ridings, he's going to have to stop bowing down to his Reformer past.

Because I'd suggest that when I win, you can have a "Go Habs Go!" signature for a month, and if the stars fall from heaven and I lose, well, after baby Jesus stops weeping, I'll put a "Go Leafs Go!" line in my sig!

And despite Charlatan's evident communist tendencies, I accept him as neutral arbiter.

;)

I would suggest using some kind of percentage deviation to determine the victor.

highthief, that is entirely acceptable. I'll even find you a logo to go with the chant, if you want it. Y'know, so it's not just Go Leafs Go! in your sig.

And I agree re: percentage deviation. My recommendation is as follows : since we have the same number for the Tories and are off by all of 1 seat for the Bloc, why not take them entirely out of the equation? That way we've got Libs and NDP, where you and I differ the most. Average the deviation of the two and the one who has the closest predictions wins. In the unlikely event of a tie, we'll both promote the other's club for a month, just for the hell of it.

Any objections?

This commie already has a spreadsheet drafted... just need to plug in the numbers.