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The ultimate last laugh at Martin. Shame really, It's Martin that I like, the backroom liberals whom I despise. |
Kirk... that's exactly what I'm getting at. I think the Chretien back room boys would love nothing better than to see Martin get squashed. It wouldn't surprise me to find that they've been doing things behind the scenes to hinder him in this election.
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You know this might work out splendedly for me.
Canadian conservatives regain power, (all those American celebs move back to the USA hah). Hilary Clinton wins the White House in 2008. I then move to Canada and spend the rest of my life fishing and straightening just enough teeth to remain fishing. Hows the high speed internet in Canada in the more rural areas these days? I need something to do in the winters since I'm not a fan of ice fishing. |
You do know that Ice Fishing is really just getting drunk in a shack on the lake in the winter, right?
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It's going to be very interesting to see if Harper can resist the urge to move the centre.
If he stays true to his roots and holds the far right, I predict his government will suffer the same fate as the Mike Harris Tories. However, if he does slide to the centre, the howls that will arise from Alberta will be heard in Newfoundland. If he wins a majority, Harper will have some very tough choices to make. If it is a minority, he can always blame the shift to the centre on political neccessity. |
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edit.. there... I said it. I'm braced ready for the ripping. |
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I'm about as proud of an Albertan as they come, but a movement towards the centre from Harper and company would make me cheer. My dad, who began life on a cattle ranch and hay farm and who has made a career in the oil patch is pretty much a sterotypical Albertan. He has rifles, he likes beef, he votes for Ralph. But he hasn't supported the right-wing-god-fearing conservatives since Brian brought the GST. He told me on the phone last night that this is the first election he will not be voting in, for lack of a choice he can get behind. Quote:
Also, and this is my 'asshole albertan' coming out, there should be made a distinction between 'the needs of the nation' and 'socialist wants of a regionally very divided nation'. |
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I don't think that it is 'asshole-ish' to state that some consideration needs to be given, and I would ask that I , and my fellow constituants be given this consideration. |
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You are right. I was implying that the strong Reform base that lives in Alberta would howl. I should have been more specific. By the way, tell your Dad to vote NDP. It is probably the best choice for someone like your Dad. If there is a Conservative minority, the NDP will be in a great position to puposefully draw the Conservatives to the centre that (nearly) all of desire. By the way, I too agree that attention needs to be given to the West and I recognize the politics behind why little attention has been paid over the years. I just don't agree that the Reform method of solving this (increased regionalism) is the answer. I guess I'm just too much of a Federalist for that solution. |
My question is - is voting Liberal the only real choice for the Federalist?
Also, did anyone else notice the typo in the thread title? |
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It seems to me that the NDP and the Green Party are quite Federalist. Even the Conservatives say they are Federalist (though they would rather see a much weaker Federal government and stronger Provinces). All three of these parties have candidates across the country, as opposed to the Bloc with only candidates in Quebec. |
My take on the whole election, for what it's worth is this.
It's most definitly time for the Liberals to clear out their back room. Enough is enough. Paul Martin on the whole seems to me like a decent enough smart guy. He also seems a bit desperate these days and for good reason. Stephen Harper gets a bad rap from a lot of the more left leaning folk in Canada. He is not the devil incarnate nor is he Georgies puppet. The Conservatives in Canada are far from the Cons in the US. In fact, I'd say they more closely match the Dems there. Anyway, Harper's a bright guy and I think he'd be a good PM. Certainly wouldn't be the end of the world if he gets a majority. Probably the best thing that could happen to Canada at this point. Duceppe strikes me as the most reasonable of the 4 leaders, though for the life of me I can't wrap my head around why we have a seperatest party running in a federal election. And Layton, well he's the only one I don't like in the least. "We're here too", "there's a 3rd option...". Though I'm sure most of my distaste for him comes from my general dislike of the NDP in general. Either way, it's a pretty amazing Country we live in, the govenment gets overturned and the place doesn't decend into chaos. Pretty minor differences we're debating over when comparing these 4 parties on the grand scheme of things. |
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Oh okay. I guess you were saying that the Reform Party was in favour of increased regionalism... and by that I thought you were also including the Conservatives because they are a mix of PC's and Reformers. I don't see the NDP as anti-Federalist either, I guess. I just never consider them as a voting option since their left-wingedness is too extreme. |
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I guess I come from the position that we will never see an NDP government. I don't vote NDP so they will be government. I vote for them so they will be a voice in opposition or, in a minority situation, hold the balance of power. They are the voice that keeps our government from shifting too far right. Quote:
Their fiscal policy is quite American in its, "give the money to the people and let them fend for themselves" approach. But what are they really offering? A cut in the GST? They will raise the basic tax rate to pay for it. You would have to spend something like $800 a week in goods and services to get back the tax they are going to raise. $1200 to family with kids? Doesn't even sratch the surface on childcare costs. One cannot argue against the fact that the Liberals have brought prosperity and fiscal responsibility to Canada. Their scandals aside, the nation is in a much better place than what Mulroney and his people left us with in the beginning of the 90s. Much better. This election, Harper has played the PR game like a pro. He has silenced the oddballs in his party, control his own personal ticks that turned people off in the past and managed to convince the nation that his party is the Progressive Conservative party of old. I wouldn't have as much of a problem with the Conservatives if they really were the PC party. They are not. I do understand the desire to wipe of the Liberals that many feel... if anyone is to blame for this state of affairs it is Chretien and his cronies. I truly feel bad for Martin. He has done everything in his power to clean up the Liberal party. He has instituted the strictest financial auditing system of *any* nation in the world. He just couldn't rule effectively with Chretien's knives so deeply placed in his back. For those who like a centrist position but just can stomach casting a vote for the Liberals, I suggest you seriously consider voting NDP. It looks like the Conservatives are going to win the election. OK. But why put all our eggs in one basket? If we give them a majority, they will have free reign to do what they want. There will be no checks or balances on their actions until the next election. Give them a minority with the balance of power held by the NDP and the tendency will be to pull them closer to the centre. Give the Conservatives a chance to see what they can do in power but keep that power in check. |
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I keep saying this. but it seems that people are voting for change, rather than policy. The only really good thing that Chretian did (in my mind) was to keep Canada out of Iraq. The timing of this with the Quebec election probably supported the Liberal cause provincially. But other than that, Chretian lost my respect with the pepper spray incident (what a smart ass). The government didn't tho. |
You are right about the $1200, it is only for families with young children. Children need to be in care until at least the age of 10, in my opinion.
The way it looks to me, is that many voters are doing what you suggest, voting for change. They aren't thinking much beyond, "Let's try something new." Novelty is no way to make a decision about government. |
The $1200 thing appeals to families with one income, like mine. My wife stays home with our daughter and future children, and the $1200 is a nice little extra to buy diapers and stuff...
Would this $1200 be in lieu of the $100 Baby Bonus we get per month? |
We have a one income family. I have three kids, the youngest being 8. $1200 would come in very very handy. Believe me the costs mount as they get older. I wish we could go back to the diaper days. Even when they were young, baby bonus was only $33/month, and then it was removed (or indexed so to speak).
We found that it is far more important for a parent to be at home when the kids are of the age where they bring home significant homework (about grade 3 onwards) as there is no in-law, or nanny, or daycare that can build the study habits that a parent can. for this reason I wish that we could income split (without having to incorporate!) in order to relieve the tax burden that a single income family faces. I calculated that if I could income split, I would save just over $400 per month in income tax deductions. |
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And yeah, we are fiscally prosperous by any standard and we are leading the world in terms of creating a truly socially liberal society, but a big chunk of the people are voting for change "just because". |
While it is cheaper once the kids are in school full time, it implies that parents can drop kids off at 8:40 (or so) and pick them up at 3:30 (or so).
Afternoon care still runs around 300 to 500 per month (depending on the type of care). As I said earlier, I would like to be able to write off a greater share of childcare expenses on my taxes. |
[QUOTE=highthief]Well, it is for "daycare". After the age of 6, kids are in school F/T and daycare costs go down, even if you have to pay for an hour or two of afterschool care. So I don't agree with extending the $1200.
QUOTE] so.. it is not attractive to this voter. ( have checked into after school daycare, and it's not cheap) |
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I for one will not be voting for the Conservatives just because I'd like a change, though I feel that it's a good enough reason all on its own. I tend to be a little bit off to the right fiscally while being pretty centrist on social issues and to me the conservatives are what most closely matches that. I don't agree with everything on their platform but I disagree with less of it than any if the other options so.... |
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We won't see the Conservatives officially table legislation like killing abortion rights, etc. But I think it is very likely that they will back door this sort of legislation through private members bills. Harper can shrug and say, the government didn't table this, just like we promised, but they will vote the legislation in with their majority in a "free vote". The thing is, if you were to ask many of the people voting for change they would say they don't want to see this happen. I predict it will. I suppose time will tell. Quote:
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The point is that $1200 tidbit doesn't influence my situation. |
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It doesn't influence my situation either at the moment, but I still think it's a better approach than a nationalized daycare system. |
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Given the Liberal's track record managing national programs, I understand the skepticism towards the National Daycare Plan. But the most pressing daycare problem right now, is a lack of spaces. The $1200 does absolutely nothing to address this.
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This was how the Harris Tories operated in Ontario, and it was incredibly counter-productive. Clumsy funding formulas for Education, Municipal amalgamation and downloading, broadly devisive labour relations... The changes were so broad and far reaching, that it was impossible to evaluate the quality of the legislation, much less predict the fallout. In the end, a ton of energy and time was spent picking up the pieces and refining the legislation for Ontario's diverse regions and their needs. I just hope we're not in for the same crude tactics at the federal level. |
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I wouldn't use this past minority government as benchmark for the effectiveness of minority governments. Not only were the numbers too close (i.e. confidence votes like the sping budget vote) but they also had to deal with the fact that Gomery was revealing some highly problematic information about the Liberals. Remember, if the Liberals didn't fall in December we still would have been going to the polls in February/March. I think Fresnelly has put his finger on why the Conservatives won't fare well in Toronto. We are still feeling the sting of Mike Harris. We see many similarities in the two platforms. Quote:
I find it hard to believe that they won't try to instite their agenda once they get a taste of power. Harper may be a man of his word, as he says. Again, time will tell. |
By the way... did anyone catch the new Liberal and Conservative TV ads?
The Liberal ad features Paul Martin chatting about Canadian's Hopes, Values and Dreams... is it just me or should this have been what Martin should have been saying all along? The Conservative ad shows us what Paul Martin's own liberals are saying about the "attack ads" that the Liberals are running. Wow... biting ads that are negative but come off as a positive. This Conservative machine is very slick. |
speaking of slick machines, the Big Blue Machine has endorsed Harper. Yes, Bill Davis himself has come forward and thrown his support behind the Conservative party at a speach in Burlington yesterday.
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Con...=1137538221174 Harper using the soft-sell approach Nothing to fear from a majority Senate, courts serve as checks Jan. 18, 2006. 01:00 AM SEAN GORDON OTTAWA BUREAU LÉVIS, QUE.—Stephen Harper is using the soft sell to push for a majority government, saying there's nothing to fear from a Tory landslide because his party will be hemmed in by a Liberal-dominated Senate and Liberal-appointed courts. Harper said there would be significant limits on the power of a Conservative government and, if elected, that he would stick to realistic, achievable aims. "I'm not sure there's such a thing as a true Conservative majority in the sense of a Liberal majority," he said. "The reality is we will have for some time to come a Liberal Senate, a Liberal civil service — at least senior levels have been appointed by the Liberals — and courts that have been appointed by the Liberals." The Tory leader added, "There's certainly no absolute power for a Conservative government ... we'll have checks on us and limits on our ability to operate that a Liberal government would not face." The Tories appear to be building steam in the province, especially in the Quebec City region, and Harper made it clear in a pair of speeches that it will be in Quebec's interest to elect MPs — and by extension, cabinet ministers. At a boisterous rally in Burlington last night that drew about 500 supporters, former Ontario premier Bill Davis introduced Harper saying, "I've come to know him, and I've come to trust him." Davis lauded Harper's leadership skills and predicted voters will carry him to office next week. "Suffice it to say that what he is saying to the people of Canada is obviously having an impact," he said. "People are believing him. There's no question people want change, and rightfully so. But what is most encouraging is they now sense to whom they are looking for the change they feel is so essential." |
When I heard about the Davis endorsement this morning I couldn't believe it. I just don't believe the Reform Party has changed its stripes enough to actually haul in the big guns from the Progressive Conservative party. Especially a progressive like Davis.
As I said above, time will tell. |
The Globe and Mail's latest poll shows that the Conservatives have lost a few points.
LINK It's interesting, the piece seems to suggest that this drop is due to Harper talking about issues that stray further to the right: Quote:
And before anyone claims media bias, you should be aware that the Globe and Mail editorial staff has come out and endorsed Harper as their candidate (which I suppose is media bias in an of itself) and the polls are being done and analyzed by Alan Gregg, a former PC strategist. |
I personally don't put a lot of stock in polls. I'm very skeptical about them. I think in a way the polls will work against the Conservatives, as in "oh no, the Conservatives are leading? Man, that has me worried. I think I better vote now, so I can vote against them."
I think if I were winning I'd not want all the publicity that these 'polls' bring. Especially Harper. He doesn't know what to do with a lead when he gets one. |
What are some of the good online sites that keep up-to-date report of vote tallying on election night?
I got a class starting 6pm until 10pm and I'd like to keep tabs on what's going on and see if Harper's plan for world domination is working out for him |
The Globe and Mail seems to have a pretty good set up this year. They have live results that you can browse by various criteria.
Federal: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elect...alResults.html All Ridings: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elect...ngResults.html Sadly, for the first time ever, I am going to miss all of the election night coverage (I've been watching since I was a kid). I will be on a plane to Las Vegas. I am flying WestJet and I've been told that many of their planes have satellite TV in the seats... so I might get lucky. To those of you who get off on the election coverage (you know who you are), have fun! |
So the votes are in: Conservative Minority.
Me, I think I'm happy about that. I voted Conservative, assuming they'd have their power checked with a minority gov't. I think there's a lot of unfounded worry about what the Conservatives can and might do while in power. I think it's fearmongering to say they'll ban gay marriages and make us an American state.... They'll essentially be as neutered as the Liberals were in the last parliament, maybe worse... What I wish people would do is sit back and wait. See what steps the Harper gov't takes in the next few weeks. See what promises they actually start acting on. Personally, I can't wait until he scraps the gun registry. I don't know if he's actually going to or not, but it would be great if he did. It should be an interesting couple of days, Canadians... So what are your thoughts... |
It's hard to say what is going to happen now. If the two main parties remain in opposition to one another, then each needs the Bloc in order to pass or block legislation, which is not a place anyone wanted to be.
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