student

seems inevitable....twin bills already written...as early as spring 2005.


http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle5146.htm

Oiling up the draft machine?

The Pentagon is quietly moving to fill draft board vacancies nationwide. While officials say there's no cause to worry, some experts aren't so sure.

By Dave Lindorff

Nov. 3, 2003 (Salon) The community draft boards that became notorious for sending reluctant young men off to Vietnam have languished since the early 1970s, their membership ebbing and their purpose all but lost when the draft was ended. But a few weeks ago, on an obscure federal Web site devoted to the war on terrorism, the Bush administration quietly began a public campaign to bring the draft boards back to life.

"Serve Your Community and the Nation," the announcement urges. "If a military draft becomes necessary, approximately 2,000 Local and Appeal Boards throughout America would decide which young men ... receive deferments, postponements or exemptions from military service."

Local draft board volunteers, meanwhile, report that at training sessions last summer, they were unexpectedly asked to recommend people to fill some of the estimated 16 percent of board seats that are vacant nationwide.

Especially for those who were of age to fight in the Vietnam War, it is an ominous flashback of a message. Divisive military actions are ongoing in Iraq and Afghanistan. News accounts daily detail how the U.S. is stretched too thin there to be effective. And tensions are high with Syria and Iran and on the Korean Peninsula, with some in or close to the Bush White House suggesting that military action may someday be necessary in those spots, too.

Not since the early days of the Reagan administration in 1981 has the Defense Department made a push to fill all 10,350 draft board positions and 11,070 appeals board slots. Recognizing that even the mention of a draft in the months before an election might be politically explosive, the Pentagon last week was adamant that the drive to staff up the draft boards is not a portent of things to come. There is "no contingency plan" to ask Congress to reinstate the draft, John Winkler, the Pentagon's deputy assistant secretary for reserve affairs, told Salon last week.

Increasingly, however, military experts and even some influential members of Congress are suggesting that if Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's prediction of a "long, hard slog" in Iraq and Afghanistan proves accurate, the U.S. may have no choice but to consider a draft to fully staff the nation's military in a time of global instability.

"The experts are all saying we're going to have to beef up our presence in Iraq," says U.S. Rep. Charles Rangel, the New York Democrat. "We've failed to convince our allies to send troops, we've extended deployments so morale is sinking, and the president is saying we can't cut and run. So what's left? The draft is a very sensitive subject, but at some point, we're going to need more troops, and at that point the only way to get them will be a return to the draft."

Rangel has provoked controversy in the past by insisting that a draft is the only way to fill the nation's military needs without exploiting young men and women from lower-income families. And, some suggest, by proposing military service from middle- and upper-class men and women, Rangel may be trying to diminish the odds of actually using them in combat. But Rangel is hardly alone in suggesting that the draft might be needed.

The draft, ended by Congress in 1973 as the Indochina War was winding down, was long a target of antiwar activists, and remains highly controversial both in and out of the military. Most military officers understandably prefer an army of volunteers and career soldiers over an army of grudging conscripts; Rumsfeld, too, has long been a staunch advocate of an all-volunteer force.

According to some experts, basic math might compel the Pentagon to reconsider the draft: Of a total U.S. military force of 1.4 million people around the globe (many of them in non-combat support positions and in services like the Air Force and Navy), there are currently about 140,000 active-duty, reserve and National Guard soldiers currently deployed in Iraq -- and though Rumsfeld has been an advocate of a lean, nimble military apparatus, history suggests he needs more muscle.

"The closest parallel to the Iraq situation is the British in Northern Ireland, where you also had some people supporting the occupying army and some opposing them, and where the opponents were willing to resort to terror tactics," says Charles Peña, director of defense studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. "There the British needed a ratio of 10 soldiers per 1,000 population to restore order, and at their height, it was 20 soldiers per 1,000 population. If you transfer that to Iraq, it would mean you'd need at least 240,000 troops and maybe as many as 480,000.

"The only reason you aren't hearing these kinds of numbers discussed by the White House and the Defense Department right now," Peña adds, "is that you couldn't come up with them without a return to the draft, and they don't want to talk about that."

The Pentagon has already had to double the deployment periods of some units, call up more reserves and extend tours of duty by a year -- all highly unpopular moves. Meanwhile, the recent spate of deadly bombings in Baghdad, Falluja and other cities, and increasing attacks on U.S. forces throughout Iraq have forced the U.S. to reconsider its plans to reduce troop deployments.

Those factors -- combined with the stress and grind of war itself -- clearly have diminished troop morale. And many in the National Guard and reserves never anticipated having to serve in an active war zone, far from their families and jobs, for six months or longer. Stars and Stripes, the Army's official paper, reports that a poll it conducted found that half the soldiers in Iraq say they are "not likely" or are "very unlikely" to reenlist -- a very high figure.

Consider that the total enlistment goal for active Army and Army reserves in the fiscal year ended Oct. 1 was 100,000. If half of the 140,000 troops currently in Iraq were to go home and stay, two-thirds of this year's recruits would be needed to replace them. And that does not take into consideration military needs at home and around the globe.

"My sense is that there is a lot of nervousness about the enlistment numbers as Iraq drags on," says Doug Bandow, another military manpower expert at Cato. "We're still early enough into it that the full impact on recruiting/retention hasn't been felt."

The Pentagon, perhaps predictably, sees a more hopeful picture.

Curtis Gilroy, director of accession policy at the Department of Defense, concedes that troop morale is hurting. "There are certainly concerns about future reenlistments. Iraq is not a happy place to be," Gilroy says. "[But] I think a certain amount of that is just grumbling. What we're interested in is not what people are saying, but what they do." So far, he reports, reenlistments and new enlistments remain on target.

Beth Asch, a military manpower expert at the Rand Corp. think tank, agrees that current retention and new enlistment figures are holding up. But she cautions that it may be too soon to know the impact of the tough and open-ended occupation in Iraq. "Short deployments actually boost enlistments and reenlistments," Asch says. "But studies show longer deployments can definitely have a negative impact."

While she thinks it is unlikely that the military will have to resort to a draft to meet its needs, Ned Lebow, a military manpower expert and professor of government at Dartmouth College, is less confident.

"The government is in a bit of a box," Lebow says. "They can hold reservists on active duty longer, and risk antagonizing that whole section of America that has family members who join the Reserves. They can try to pay soldiers more, but it's not clear that works -- and besides, there's already an enormous budget deficit. They can try to bribe other countries to contribute more troops, which they're trying to do now, but not with much success. Or they can try Iraqization of the war -- though we saw what happened to Vietnamization, and Afghanization of the war in Afghanistan isn't working, so Iraqization doesn't seem likely to work either.

"So," Lebow concludes, "that leaves the draft."

Purely in mechanical terms, a draft is a complicated and difficult thing to get off the ground. It would require an act of Congress, first, and then the signature of the president. Young men are already required to register with the Selective Service system, but if the bill were signed into law, it would still take half a year or more to get the new troops into the system. Federal law would require the Selective Service to immediately set up a lottery and start sending out induction notices. Local draft boards would have to evaluate them for medical problems, moral objections and other issues like family crises, and hear the appeals of those who are resisting the draft.

Under law, the first batch of new conscripts must be processed and ready for boot camp in 193 days or less after the start of the draft.

But if the mechanics of the draft are difficult, the politics could be lethal for Bush or any other top official who proposed it.

Already, the American public is almost as split today over the war in Iraq as it was about the war in Indochina nearly four decades ago, though not yet as passionately. But a new draft would likely incite even deeper resentment than it did then. In the last war fought by a conscript army, draft deferments for students meant that nobody who was in college had to worry about being called up until after graduation, and until late in that war, it was even possible, by going to grad school (like Vice President Dick Cheney), to avoid getting drafted altogether. In the Vietnam War era, college boys could also duck combat, as George W. Bush did, by joining the National Guard.

But that's all been changed. In a new draft, college students whose lottery number was selected would only be permitted to finish their current semester; seniors could finish their final year. After that, they'd have to answer the call. Meanwhile, National Guardsmen, as we've seen in the current war, are now likely to face overseas combat duty, too.

"If Congress and Bush reinstitute the draft, it would be the '60s all over again," predicts Lebow. "It's hard to imagine Congress passing such a bill, but then, look how many members of Congress just rolled over and played dead on the bill for $87 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan."

New York Rep. Rangel and Sen. Fritz Hollings, D-S.C., introduced companion bills in the two houses of Congress to reactivate the draft last January, at a time when Bush was clearly moving toward an invasion. While both bills remain in the legislative hopper, neither has gone anywhere.

Even among those who think the public might support a draft, like Bandow at the Cato Institute, few believe Bush would dare to propose it before the November 2004 election. "No one would want that fight," he explains. "It would highlight the cost of an imperial foreign policy, add an incendiary issue to the already emotional protests, and further split the limited-government conservatives." But despite the Pentagon's denials, planners there are almost certainly weighing the numbers just as independent military experts are. And that could explain the willingness to tune up the draft machinery.

John Corcoran, an attorney who serves on a draft board in Philadelphia, says he joined the Reserves to avoid the draft during the Vietnam War. Today, he says, the Bush administration "is in deep trouble" in Iraq "because they didn't plan for the occupation." That doesn't mean Bush would take the election-year risk of restarting the draft, Corcoran says. "To tell the truth, I don't think Bush has the balls to call for a draft.

"They give us a training session each year to keep the machinery in place and oiled up in case, God forbid, they ever do reinstitute it," he explains.

"They don't want us to have to do it," agrees Dan Amon, a spokesman for the Selective Service. "But they want us to be ready to do it at the click of a finger."

rukkyg

I have to say if it comes down to jail, canada, or helping to build the american empire at the cost of my own life, I'll choose the second one on account of I don't want to die or give head.

The Phenomenon

Military draft is just plain wrong and it ruined many many young men's lives.

It is a load of crap. I'd leave the country that forces me to die for them.

Fuck 'em -- I am more important to myself.

SecretMethod70

Canada has signed a treaty that, in the event of another US draft, they will send people back the the US. It's called the "Smart Border Declaration" and it also eliminates higher education as a way of getting out of the draft. In fact, we have a similar agreement with many countries.

Yay.

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rukkyg

So fucking gay. I'm not paying 80 thousand dollars to learn engineering just so I can go die to make a stupid empire.

rukkyg

http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=200

Canada it is!

onetime2

I don't know, if I were of the mind to run I would aim for warmer weather not colder. But that's just me.

And, on the bright side, should you be drafted and you serve you wouldn't have to pay for that education anymore. The GI Bill would pretty much cover you.

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SecretMethod70

well that's good - glad to know considering how many times I have heard the opposite. Either way, I think I'll start compiling conscientious objector papers now, just in case.

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"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

Diamond

Draft is a bad idea, even Military minds say that. You get squat when you force people to fight, the volunteer force is far more effective.

SecretMethod70

well when you put it THAT way.... A free education sure would be nice

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Diamond

Draft is a bad idea, even Military minds say that. You get squat when you force people to fight, the volunteer force is far more effective. Take a look at some northern European countries though, I beleive in Finland, ALL men (not sure if women too) are drafted for one year (might be longer, not sure) at the age of 18.

SecretMethod70

not really when your enlisting people from poverty and luring them with lies about how great military life is to help pay for school and such, never talking about the REALITY of what they're committing to do.

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Ustwo

The draft issue is currently nothing but a political football being tossed around by democrats hoping to scare people into not voting for Bush.

This is the typical lie being presented. They are still going by the fictitious claim that more casualties are from the poor minorities, when in fact the combat troops are disproportionately white and middle class. If you go by population % the armed forces are biased in sending white males into combat instead of minorities.

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Pacifier

Same her in germany, but you can choose alternative civilian service instead of millitary service

and all our troops that are in Kosovo and Afghanistan are volunteers

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Pacifier

It is the first time i hear that. source?

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"It seems to me that the idea of a personal God is an anthropological concept which I cannot take seriously. I also cannot imagine some will or goal outside the human sphere. Science has been charged with undermining morality, but the charge is unjust. A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties and needs; no religious basis is necessary. Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death
— Albert Einstein

SecretMethod70

Heh, um, I just noticed that this article is almost a year old. That's good news of course.

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Rodney

I've been reading that, while the regular military says it's meeting recruiting goals, the reserves and national guard aren't. And the army doesn't have enough troops to fight the war(s) without reserve and guard units, much less anything else that comes up. If we stay in Iraq long-term, a draft of some sort has to happen, and there is _no way_ you're going to hear any of that from the administration before the election.

I saw part of a campaign speech from Bush last night in which he gave hope he'd have the troops home soon without actually saying so ("We'll bring our boys home as soon as we possibly can!"), while even Kerry is only promising he'd have Americans out of there within four years. From what was in the Iraq security assessment that came out in the media yesterday, it seems like there is no reasonable way out of Iraq soon without short of cutting and running and letting the country collapse.

So yes, we will have a draft. And probably one carefully designed to favor the rich and/or well-informed, as they always are, all the way back to Civil War days when you could pay someone to take your place in the army.

smooth

I can't find anything in the smart border declaration that speaks to the issue of the US draft. It looks like a stance to implement biometrics and extra security in the visa process in order to inhibit terrorists' immigration.

Can you refer me to where you obtained the specifics you're referring to, please?

Here's an article on it that I found:
http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/12/12/rec.canada.border/

and here are the points to it:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea.../20020107.html

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rukkyg

Cover me even though I'm a junior in college now? No I'm already putting my own self in debt to learn. They just want to steal that from me in addition to my life, leaving my dad with my debt because he cosigned my loans.

onetime2

It will cover you even if you've graduated I believe.

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Stompy

Good thing I didn't fill out my selective service papers

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Rdr4evr

Stompy, dont they find out if you dont fill those stupid things out? Shit, If I knew I wouldn't have filled it out either. If it comes down to a draft though, I will be off to Canada.....

Lebell

Rdr4evr,

They check if you are applying for such things as student loans/aid and other federal programs.

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SecretMethod70

Well, they don't bother prosecuting people who don't fill it out generally speaking. However, if you don't fill it out you're not able to get any federal loans for schools or anything. The reality is, not filling it out is not an option for most people. I know, cause I considered not doing it. And if I hadn't, I wouldn't be in college right now.

EDIT: Lebell beat me to it

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Le temps détruit tout

"Musicians are the carriers and communicators of spirit in the most immediate sense." - Kurt Elling

smooth

Pacifier, it doesn't matter if Ustwo provides you a link, he misinterpreted the position:

Rangel said drafts draw from the lower-classes--not specifically ethnic minorities.

And for anyone considering that the GI bill covers education in any significant manner, you would do best to conduct your research before speaking with a recruitment officer.


Well, there you go, Pacifier, three posts after mine and the right-wingers still can't let it go. They seem content on arguing against something no one is claiming rather than just admit Rangel is correct in his analysis. In fact, they seem so unwilling to just look at what a democrat actually means by his statements that they can't even fathom the idea that their points actually agree with his.

Yes, lower class whites are disproportionately serving in the military. So are lower class ethnic minorities. Does one point negate the other? Of course, Rangel is stating that he thinks the draft would address class inequity in the ranks of the soldiers--but never mind, proceed at burning your strawman people.

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Ustwo

Don't have my original source as it was on the radio about a year ago but a quick google gave me this...

http://www.globalblacknews.com/Ofari.html

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Ustwo

I found this to be a very interesting article about why a draft would be bad for the poor. I don't agree with everything 100% but the logic seems sound.

http://www.globalblacknews.com/universaldraftpart2.html

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irateplatypus

i've also read several articles detailing how white males are in the disproportionate majority of combat positions. i remember reading that minority soldiers more often used the military's tech training and loan programs... then got out. middle class white males were more inclined to go the combat route and make it a career. sorry i cannot remember the source... hopefully someone will track it down.

i'm in the AF and would be very disappointed if a draft were put in place. recruiting quotas are full and the standards for entry have never been higher... i just don't see the need. however, i am disappointed at the tone of some people who renounce a draft purely upon the grounds that they owe nothing to the country.

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If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.

~ Winston Churchill

Zeld2.0

whats funny is that all the fighting between ideologies suddenly mostly ceases when it comes to the draft and suddenly people say "uh.... hope not."

Rdr4evr

I don’t think its that they don’t owe anything to the country...its more that they don’t feel they owe anything to Bush. If a draft does happen and say Bush wants to go to war with Iran or Syria, most people would avoid the draft for the simple fact that they do not believe they are fighting for the country. If America is in actual serious threat.... fine, it is understandable, but otherwise, Canada is a much better option.

onetime2

There seem to be several different reasons for the "uh....hope not" stance though.

One is fear of being called up, another is that it will detract from the effectiveness of our military, and still another is the theory that it will inequitably target one group over another.

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Ustwo

No, I think its more likely most people you know or hang out with would not. When the first Gulf war started there was a great influx of young men volunteering to sign up and no one thought that America was in danger then. No one really knew Saddam Hussein or much about Kuwait, or how hard a fight it would be. Democrats, wrong again, were predicting we would need 10000's of body bags for dead American G.I.'s. Still they signed up.

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roachboy

if i had time, i would do this myself---but things are otherwise at the moment:
does anyone have data available that supports the claims on the economic and ethnic composition of the military?
if possible, could that data be broken down by rank?

or does anyone know where one could find this kind of data?

the debate seems to turn on it, and so far all there is is at best hearsay.
i havent looked into the matter, but am interested.
thanks.

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onetime2

A couple of resources:

http://www.defenselink.mil/prhome/poprep2000/

http://www.pewhispanic.org/site/docs...20Sheet%20.pdf

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Rdr4evr

Yes, but this case is much different. After seeing the situation we are having in Iraq, the 1000 death of US troops over a baseless war, the mind set would be more hesitant. People are not going to want to go to another senseless war in Iran or Syria for the same lies that the troops died in Iraq for.

Flyguy

Fuck the Canadians. Go to Mexico. Your dollar goes a LOT further down there.

And all the fine ass latinas to boot?? I'm so there

Flyguy

GIVE ME A FUCKING BREAK. Political football?? If this is so big then why isn't it all over Kerry's speeches??

Ustwo

Because he is not that stupid. HE would not call for a draft, that would be suicide. Other dems can do it to scare people about Bush but if he said we needed one he would lose in a landslide.

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irateplatypus

roachboy, i chased down this link for ya... thread pertinent info can be found on the "The Race Issue - Equal Opportunity on the Battlefield" heading near the bottom.

http://www.rcnv.org/rcnv/archives/20...mographics.htm

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If you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.

~ Winston Churchill

pedro padilla

way back when i was fresh outta high school and reagan country, i discovered i had to register for selective service to recieve my tax return, file for unemployment, register to vote, apply for financial aid, etc etc. I think it was the year they reinstated obligatory registration. Hippies in front of the post offices were handing out stickers to affix to the card. " i am registering under protest " me and my buddies stuck em on. afterwards we all agreed that mexico was the far better choice. sun, waves, mota and cheap cerveza.
the draft is coming under kerry or bush because there are simply not enough bodies on the ground. under bush we´ll be after iran by spring. iraq, of course, will have had their "free democratic elections" and all will be rosy. reality is 10 more years of quicksand. need more bodies.
kerry, because they´re going to test him. all the nuts are gonna make some kind of move. hot spots are gonna break out over a much wider area. need more bodies.
I´ll still trust Kerry more to watch my ass along with my families and friends. They both suck but lesser of two evils is exactly that.