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I've been reading that, while the regular military says it's meeting recruiting goals, the reserves and national guard aren't. And the army doesn't have enough troops to fight the war(s) without reserve and guard units, much less anything else that comes up. If we stay in Iraq long-term, a draft of some sort has to happen, and there is _no way_ you're going to hear any of that from the administration before the election.
I saw part of a campaign speech from Bush last night in which he gave hope he'd have the troops home soon without actually saying so ("We'll bring our boys home as soon as we possibly can!"), while even Kerry is only promising he'd have Americans out of there within four years. From what was in the Iraq security assessment that came out in the media yesterday, it seems like there is no reasonable way out of Iraq soon without short of cutting and running and letting the country collapse.
So yes, we will have a draft. And probably one carefully designed to favor the rich and/or well-informed, as they always are, all the way back to Civil War days when you could pay someone to take your place in the army.
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