What would AMERICA do?

[Mephisto2]

Based upon some of the comments in the Suspected Chechen rebels take a school hostages thread (http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showthread.php?t=67544) about how the Russians will likely botch up the siege, or handle the whole thing badly, I'm curious as to what America would do in such a situation.

Imagine this.

50 militant Al Queda terrorists storm a school function somewhere in the United States and round up between 200 and 300 hostages, including at least 200 children (some as young as 7 years of age).

They rig the place for explosives, fitting trip wires and wearing explosive belts.

They are heavily armed, ruthless and ready to die, as is proven by past attacks.

They state that for every one of their number killed they will execute 50 children.

They have sufficient supplies to last 30 days.

They demand that the US withdraw from Iraq and will start shooting 5 children per day in 24 hours if their demands are not met.

Chilling scenario, but so was the idea of planes being used as weapons. What would YOU do in this situation?

It's very easy for us to criticise the Russians. They got flack for letting Chechen rebels withdraw form a hospital siege in 1995. And they got flack for storming another hospital siege the following year and using gas in the 2002 theatre siege.

So, what's your solution? If you don't have one, don't criticise the Russians so much.


Mr Mephisto

[djtestudo]

I'm not going to criticize the Russians; they have far more restraint than I would have had. If I were running Russia, Grozny would be a sheet of glass and the rest of Chechnya would be an Army camp.

I think they are comparable to the Palastinians, in that both have claims to a homeland, but both go about it the WRONG way.

[Seaver]

I'm 100% sure that Bush would simply let SWAT/Delta/SEALs/Rangers or whatever secret highly trained force whipe out the terrorists and accept whatever casualties unfortunately.

Like the bully picking on the smaller people, the only thing terrorists understand is when you punch him right in the throat everytime he picks on a smaller kid. Each and everytime, appeasements only encourage them. Will we suffer casualties (take licks)? Of course but unfortunately for the greater good we must accept them.

[Willravel]

Of course the CIA, NSA, and FBI would have the place surrounded in hours. They would set up a perimeter and snipers and watch towers surrounding the entire area. We wo0uld have satelite locations of all the terrorists and hostages from thermal signatures. A representative from one of the above listed government organizations (oxymoron, heh) would make contact with the group. He would distract them while a group of soldiers of some kind would try a rescue misson. After this fails, I'm not sure.

I know what I'd do. I'd try to intercept all transmissions they have made, be sure that you have complete control over the information they get. Cut off all cellular phone use with jamming devices and disconect them from whoever would tell them that the plan has succeded. Then you fake a transmission. Say that we are giving into their demands. This is a mighty risk, but it has a better chance of saving some of those innocent kids then the soldiers. Have a famous tv news anchor break the story and make sure that all the tvs and radios in the school picked up on the report. Then say that we will allow them safe passage. Get the kids out. That has to be priority one. After that, we capture all of them and take compromising photos of them with soldiers.

[Rdr4evr]

Bush would once again try and play hero and end up doing more harm than good. Afterwards he will declare war on a random country because they are somehow threats to America.

[Stompy]

There's really not much you can do but let em do their thing and better prepare yourself against a situation like that in the future if it gets messy. I'm not sure all what technology we have now, but I'm sure there's something that can be done to disarm/disable them from within.

You can't honestly expect us to just pull out of Iraq because a "terrorist" holds some children hostage in a school. I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you give in to something small like that, then there's no stop them from making even more ridiculous demands?

I'm just not sure what kind of example that would set... "Hey if you simply hold some children hostage, we'll do whatever you want!"

[reconmike]

Originally Posted by Rdr4evr

I agree with Seaver on this one. Bush would once again try and play hero and end up doing more harm than good.

That's pretty funny,
How about Kerry?
He would nick himself with his razor get his hearts and get the hell out of dodge!

I think the Russians are trying to handle the situation the best they can, thats all you can do and hope for the best.

[Seaver]

I agree with Seaver on this one. Bush would once again try and play hero and end up doing more harm than good.

Where did I say more harm than good would come of it? I said for the greater good bad things must often happen, which means harm will be done but more good will come of it.

[Rdr4evr]

I apoligize, I misunderstood "accept whatever casualties unfortunately." I will edit post.

Now that you put it that way I completely disagree with you ;p.

[Kadath]

Agent Johnson: Figure we take out the terrorists, lose twenty, twenty-five percent of the hostages -- tops.
Special Agent Johnson: I can live with that.
Die Hard

[MSD]

If it was a school in my area, they could have a rescue team in the maintainence tunnels and literally coming out of the vents and taking down terrorists before they finished making demands.

I think in the current political state of mind, there would be some ass-kicking going on.

Just a thought, anyone else notice that the fact the term "Chetzchin rebels" never mentions the fact they are also muslim EXTREMISTS. I capitalize the term extremeists as no good ever comes of extremism no matter what the cause.

[Seaver]

I apoligize, I misunderstood "accept whatever casualties unfortunately." I will edit post.

Well, you kinda have to be a utilitarian to be in the military, it heavily influences our thinking.

[Mephisto2]

I think you have all been reading too much Tom Clancy or playing Counter Strike and Splinter Cell.

There is NO WAY Special Forces could attack a well defended group of hostage takers without their having a chance to detonate the explosive belts they were wearing.

Maintenance tunnels... infrared cameras...

Sheesh.

The point of the exercise is to show you that sometimes there is very little you can do. Either attack them, and accept that it may end in a bloodbath, or bow to their demands. In other words, those who criticise the Russians or suggest their own "super plans" are missing the point. You can't do much against a man or woman with 5Kg of Semtex on his body, who is surrounded by children and willing to blow themselves to buggery, without warning their 16 other terrorists companions that something is up.

In other words, it's a lose lose situation.

Gas "worked" once. I doubt it will work again. Perhaps there will be a miracle and Spetznaz will indeed end up in taking the hostage takers out before they murder the children. But I doubt it. Another tragedy is at hand I fear...


Mr Mephisto

[archer2371]

First off, what's the layout of the street and the surrounding blocks? Also, do you have a schematic of the school, are they being held in the gymnasium, auditorium, classroom, hallway? A lot of factors go into that. Are they being held in multiple classrooms? If the terrorists had any sense, that's what they'd do and keep constant communication and as soon as a link went down somewhere, everyone dies. However, trip wires can be easily handled as long as the terrorists are kept busy talking on the phone with someone. Bomb strap belts are easy to take care of too, one in the chest and two in the head, unless they have "dead-men" switches on, that's more complicated, perhaps using a neuro-agent in a dart that would cause the muscles to clenc rather than relax. If they're in an auditorium, the doors are going to be closed, and the children will most likely be in seats. Blow the doors with as minimal primacord as possible, toss in flashbangs and just go at 'em from all angles. Gymnasium, basically same gameplan, but you can have guys fast rope from a Black Hawk through windows as well as the primacord, flashbang, shoot to kill. Classrooms, most tricky of them all, because of the fact that primacord on the doors could kill a kid. You would need to fast rope from the roof, so many Black Hawks in an area would give off too much noise, however, the windows and frames into the classroom would have to be weakened with small primacord charges timed to go off just before the FBI HRT goes in with flashbangs and silenced sub-machine guns to take all those suckers down. Again, some sort of neuro-agent dart could be used to kill and clench the muscles if the bombs on them are arranged with dead men switches. Or you could send the pizza boy in with special valium toppings on the pizzas. There's a lot of circumstances that are unknown from your situation report, if you had specifics, I'd be able to tell you definitely what I'd do. That's all I could come up with tho.

[archer2371]

Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto

I think you have all been reading too much Tom Clancy...

Actually, that's the most plausible place you can get that sort of info without actually being on the FBI HRT. My response was based on knowledge I have gathered from guys who have been on the HRT (Quantico's just right down the road) and they say that Tom Clancy can get pretty close to the real shit 99% of the time. Believe me, I've presented this question to these guys, or something similar to it, it all depends on what the layout of the room and building is. They tell me, if there's a will for them, there's definitely a way to kill the bad guys.

[Paq]

ya know, russia has a nice policy with terrorists actually..You fuck with russians, they shoot you, that's about it.

As for what america would do...Honestly, i believe the official policy is not to deal with terrorists, so it would probably be a "send in the "insert special forces team here" and accept whatever casualties. Now, one thing i do know anti-terrorist groups are allowed to do is LIE like crazy. They can promise anything and not be held accountable, so there could be a possibility of there being not so many casualties, but as far as what would work, i dunno

[Mephisto2]

I think Paq has the most reasonable and plausible response of all.

Lie to them. Offer them free passage out of the country. Then shoot them when you have a clear shot.

Mr Mephisto

[Lebell]

I don't know if this was anecdotal or not, but a year or so after the Iranian hostage crisis my highschool science teacher told us that some students had also taken over the Russian compound in Iran and taken hostages.

The Russian response was something like, the people there knew the risk, but you have invaded Russian soil, and the (nuke) bombers are in the air. The Iranian response was something like, opps, we thought you were Americans!! Sorry!!!

Again, don't know if it was true or not, but I can absolutely see Russia doing it.


As to America, we would send Delta in, hostages would die, and the liberals would hand wring and complain that we should have negotiated and why didn't Bush do something to prevent it?

[djtestudo]

Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto

I think Paq has the most reasonable and plausible response of all.

Lie to them. Offer them free passage out of the country. Then shoot them when you have a clear shot.

Mr Mephisto

That's what the Germans tried in 1972 to save the Israeli Olympic team, but they royally screwed up and everyone died. It is the best way, but also extremely risky.

Where's John McClane when you need him (oops, there's already been a Die Hard reference in here...)

My guess is, something goes bad, a couple kids get killed, and the Russians launch an all-out attack in a rage.

[hannukah harry]

i think everyone would die. i highly doubt even our highly trained special ops teams could get in and out with "minimal" losses. i don't think it's possible to get every bomb, and if they're also wearing suicide vests, then i think at least some explosives woudl end up going off.

[Zeld2.0]

The problem in the 1972 Olympics' attempt to save the Israeli Olympic team was that they were unable to take out the guys with the grenades via snipers. They had actually gunned down many but one nade into the helicopter and boom, everyone dies.

Of course, this is a big reason why counter-terrorism specialist forces *have* been created in the first place - in response to how poorly regular police would do in these situations.

[analog]

We don't negotiate with terrorists.

Let the special ops people do what they train for, and wait to count the bodies when they're done.

Breach, bang, done. This is what these people do.

[whocarz]

We have people who's job is to go into a building and kill hostage takers while saving hostages. That's all they do. They train for these kinds of situations all the time. They eat, breathe and shit this stuff. I think it comes down to a question of training. The Russians aren't nearly as well trained for these things. The Spetznaz is trained to kill, that's it. There is no saving of hostages. If the hostages manage to survive somehow, then that's a plus. This is why the Russians have such a bad record when it comes to these situations. There are quiet a few hostage or barricaded suspect incidents each year in the United States, but they normally end with only the badguys in bodybags.

[Hwed]

Two words: Special Forces.

The United States does not negotiate with terrorists. That's why they're kidnapping the French journalists over in Iraq now. :P

[orphen]

send in Sam Fisher. actually that's not his job eh...

then just like Hwed said it, Special Forces

[Mephisto2]

Originally Posted by whocarz

We have people who's job is to go into a building and kill hostage takers while saving hostages. That's all they do. They train for these kinds of situations all the time. They eat, breathe and shit this stuff. I think it comes down to a question of training. The Russians aren't nearly as well trained for these things.

What makes you think this? They have FAR more experience than the Americans have. The ONLY situation where American forces tried this ended in farce and multiple deaths during the attempt to rescue the Iranian hostages back in 1980.

The Russians have been experiencing this kind of attack for years, and responding for years.

Smells like typical "America is better than the rest of the world" bullshit to me.

The Spetznaz is trained to kill, that's it. There is no saving of hostages. If the hostages manage to survive somehow, then that's a plus.

Again, this is nonesense. For the record, Spetznaz are military special forces, and not those primarily tasked with anti-kidnapping or hostage situations. I should have made this clear. This is usually left to the so-called "Alpha" unit (created by Andropov in 1974) and OMON units (part of the MVD, or Department of the Interior).

They ALL have considerably more experience and success than untested American units.

This is why the Russians have such a bad record when it comes to these situations. There are quiet a few hostage or barricaded suspect incidents each year in the United States, but they normally end with only the badguys in bodybags.

Well, this mass generalization shows you don't really understand the issues.

One or two criminals holed up in a bank, faced with a SWAT team, is not the same as what the Russians are dealing with.


Mr Mephisto

[archer2371]

I think that you fail to understand the American mindset at the same time however. The point is that we would try, because it's the right thing to do. Those guys in the HRT would do it without question to their superiors, even if the guy in there was wired to a nuke. The point is that they have a plan for everything and they train for it. Sure, we may not have as much in-the-field experience as other countries, but sometimes that just doesn't mean jack shit. The 1980 situation was a debacle, but the American Military just doesn't fuck up like that twice, and we have learned from it. That operation resulted in the creation of the 161st SOAR Night Stalkers, and the need for better training was never more evident, so everyone in federal law enforcement and the military stepped it up so that they would have a response to this kind of situation. I know it's not the same as the Russian situation, but I guarantee you that we would try to save those children and take down the bad guys, no ifs ands or buts.

[whocarz]

Mr. Mephisto, the Al'fa units are a part of the Spetznaz, the real name of the unit being Spetsgruppa A. The reason why I believe the Russian special forces don't do as well saving hostage lives is because there is still the callous Soviet mentality regarding human life in the Russian military/paramilitary forces, e.g. victory at all costs.

[Mephisto2]

Originally Posted by archer2371

I think that you fail to understand the American mindset at the same time however. The point is that we would try, because it's the right thing to do. Those guys in the HRT would do it without question to their superiors, even if the guy in there was wired to a nuke. The point is that they have a plan for everything and they train for it. Sure, we may not have as much in-the-field experience as other countries, but sometimes that just doesn't mean jack shit. The 1980 situation was a debacle, but the American Military just doesn't fuck up like that twice, and we have learned from it.

COUGH

What about the Navy SEALs disasterous assault on Patilla Airfield? 5 SEALs killed, 8 seriously wounded, retreat, ignominy, failure.

I'm not knocking anyone, but don't be so sure you're teams are always right or the best.

You'll hate me saying this, but even the lauded SpecOps action depicted in BlackHawk Down is evidence of a fuck-up, poor planning and unnecessary deaths. Even more would have been experienced if the Pakistani UN troops had not arrived to bail your Delta Force guys out.

That operation resulted in the creation of the 161st SOAR Night Stalkers, and the need for better training was never more evident, so everyone in federal law enforcement and the military stepped it up so that they would have a response to this kind of situation. I know it's not the same as the Russian situation, but I guarantee you that we would try to save those children and take down the bad guys, no ifs ands or buts.

I'm not arguing against that. I'm quite certain, in fact, that you would do your utmost to save them. I'm just posing a hypothetical question to show that this kind of terrorist hostage situation is very complex and not easy to resolve. I'm not specifically "attacking" US Forces or American tactics.

Mr Mephisto

[whocarz]

Mr. Mephisto, the Patilla Airfield disaster was caused by a bad command decision. The Navy Seals don't train to take over airfields. That's a job for the Rangers. The battle in Mogadishu in 1993 is another example of bad command decisions. That being said, I think our boys preformed admirably. A 100:1 kill ratio is not something to dismiss.

[OpieCunningham]

Follow up question:

What would an American do if they were in the position of a Chechen?

Chechnya Gripped by Stalinist Terror, or Where Do Suicide Bombers Come From

Why are women traveling from a remote southern Russian region all the way to Moscow to put on explosive belts and kill themselves, taking innocent bystanders’ lives with them? Oleg Orlov of the International Society Memorial, Russia’s top human rights organization, sheds light on the reasons that push Chechen suicide bombers to their drastic actions. The number of quiet, undocumented kidnappings of people from their homes by federal forces in Chechnya is comparable to statistics for the peak of Stalinist repressions in 1937-1938.

Memorial estimates that approximately 3,000 people had vanished in Chechnya during the four years from 1999 to 2003. Given Chechnya’s estimated population of 700,000, that works out to approximately 43 disappearances per every 10,000 people. During the height of Stalinist terror, people were plucked from their beds at night and taken away, never to be seen again; the figures for those years are, 44 disappearances per every 10,000 people. Back in those days, slander or hearsay information from a malevolent neighbor or co-worker was often enough to doom someone.

Which is exactly what’s happening in Chechnya — people are beginning to inform on each other as a way of personal revenge or sometimes for “commercial” reasons — for instance, if a member of a well-off family is taken away, ransom can be demanded. Over the past years, says Orlov, he’s seeing a hereto unknown feeling paralyze Chechen villagers: fear. “It used to be that fear was considered beneath Chechens, that they must be courageous and open.” And now, “Chechens are afraid of Chechens. Neighbors are afraid of neighbors.”

In the light of these changes, the previous tactic of zachistki begins to make sense. It seemed like a dumb way of combating terrorism, Orlov says — taking all the men of a village, beating them, and asking them ridiculous questions, such as “Where is Basayev?” (Shamil Basayev is one of Chechnya’s militant warlords; according to some hypotheses, he’s behind the current attack on a school in southern Russia) or “Who are the rebels in your village?” However, when the beatings are conducted on a mass scale, someone’s bound to crack. Someone’s bound to say something, implicating one or another fellow villager. And then this someone is forever hooked by the special services.

“From that moment on, this person can always be handed a bill,” Orlov says. “You can always say to him — ’Hey, man, do you remember how last year you said something about some people from their village and then they disappeared or else fragments of their bodies were found in the forest? Do you realize that now you have to always tell us things?’” Thus, the zachistki of two years ago helped create a region-wide network of informers — whose reports are now used to execute the targeted kidnappings of today.

Full Article:
http://www.mosnews.com/feature/2004/09/01/terror.shtml

[Mephisto2]

Originally Posted by whocarz

Mr. Mephisto, the Al'fa units are a part of the Spetznaz, the real name of the unit being Spetsgruppa A. The reason why I believe the Russian special forces don't do as well saving hostage lives is because there is still the callous Soviet mentality regarding human life in the Russian military/paramilitary forces, e.g. victory at all costs.

Yes, you're right. Alfa are part of the military Spetznaz. But the term Spetznaz is misleading. It simply means "Special Purposes" (or similiar) and almost all Russian forces have Spetznaz teams; even the tax police!

Alfa, OMON and even the Vympel units would be the ones who would like carry out any assault on this hypothetical siege.

OMON are not military, but "police"; kind of like a mixture between SWAT and Delta Force.

Alfa and Vympel are like the US Delta Force.

If you want more info, just shout.


Mr Mephisto


PS - Vympel were transferred out of military command to MVD after they refused to storm the Parliament during the 1991 coup (thereby saving Russian "democracy"). Later the unit was disbanded, but some reports are that is has been reformed.

If you think US Spec Ops are shadowy, you should research what the Russians do. It's very complex and confusing!

[Lebell]

Originally Posted by OpieCunningham

Follow up question:

What would an American do if they were in the position of a Chechen?

We were once.

And we didn't go over to England and murder children, nor use our own children as suicide bombers to make George III pull his troops out.

[OpieCunningham]

Originally Posted by Lebell

We were once.

And we didn't go over to England and murder children, nor use our own children as suicide bombers to make George III pull his troops out.

We also weren't outnumbered some tens of thousands to one, outgunned with VASTLY superior firepower and surrounded on all sides by the enemy.

And I'd have to take exception to your implication that the British were indiscriminantly kidnapping and torturing us.

Plus, we had the French. Without whom we would have lost. Chechens have no one offering practical support to wage a military campaign.

Try again.

[Dwayne]

Well since the title is what would America do. America would most likely bomb the school themselves to kill the terrorist and then say that all those innocent lives lost were lost for the "war on terror."
What I would do is find out what they realy have, some how find out where the bombs are etc and then send in special forces to rescue the kids.

[Mephisto2]

Originally Posted by Lebell

We were once.

And we didn't go over to England and murder children, nor use our own children as suicide bombers to make George III pull his troops out.

Well said.

These people are scum. And they do their cause a disservice.


Mr Mephisto

[Mephisto2]

Originally Posted by OpieCunningham

And I'd have to take exception to your implication that the British were indiscriminantly kidnapping and torturing us.

He didn't imply that. Read again.

:-)


Mr Mephisto

[OpieCunningham]

Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto

Well said.

These people are scum. And they do their cause a disservice.

The Russians are scum. The Chechens are scum.

Now that we've gotten the black+white name calling out of the way - what exactly would you do if you were in the position of the Chechens?

I see three options:

1- Terrorist acts
2- Gandhi turn the other cheek acts
3- An all out defense against the Russian military for as long as possible (a matter of days) while appealing to peaceniks around the globe (peaceniks who can't even get their own gov'ts to refrain from preemptive wars, let alone getting their own gov't to convince the Russians to refrain from murdering the Chechen civilians)

The only one of those three options which would produce anything other than the Chechens' total annihilation at the hands of the Russian military is option #1.

Or maybe you have another option?

[OpieCunningham]

Originally Posted by Mr Mephisto

He didn't imply that. Read again.

Yes he did imply that. The position of the Chechens is one in which they are being tortured and murdered by the Russian military (did you read the article I linked?).

I asked what would an American do in that situation.

He said we were once in that situation.