CANADA: Federal Election 2011 - Page 2 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Baraka_Guru · 04-27-2011, 04:39 AM

I think an NDP majority is a pipe dream. It will never happen; the political landscape isn't going to allow that. It will be a minority at best, and that itself is a longshot.

A recent poll:
CON 35%
NDP 30%
LIB 22%

This indicates the NDP surge continues. They're now within 5 points of the Conservatives, and have an 8-point lead over the Liberals. I would have never expected this to happen, and I can't see how any of this won't lead to a healthy boost in NDP seats.

In other news: Advanced polls up 34.5% from 2008 election

If this indicates that voter turnout will be higher than in 2008, then I'm pleased. Of course, maybe it was just because it was the long weekend. A part of me hopes it indicates that something's afoot, and people are not willing to give the Tories another shot.

Leto · 04-27-2011, 05:06 AM

maybe the start of our own grass-roots a.k.a 'tea-party' movement? A coffee-house putsch?

Baraka_Guru · 04-27-2011, 05:33 AM

Rick Mercer for prime minister!

Tully Mars · 04-27-2011, 08:19 AM

Canada has a political system? Who knew?

Charlatan · 04-27-2011, 03:21 PM

Shhh. We don't actually have a political system. We just stage these "elections" for the benefit of our neighbours to the south. We don't want them to know we are a Socialist Utopia, we'd have to close the border.

Baraka, you are right, an NDP majority will not happen (probably ever) and a minority is a stretch as well. The big problem for the NDP is Ontario. Despite their national numbers growing, their numbers in Ontario are still sitting at around 18% or so. It's up from 9% but isn't likely gain them many, if any, new seats. Their gains in Quebec might earn them enough seats to get close to official opposition status but Ontario is going to keep them down.

There are still a few more days left and Ignatieff could still sink further.

Martian · 04-27-2011, 03:47 PM

Canada doesn't have a political system. In order to have a political system we'd have to be able to form a functioning government.

Charlatan · 04-27-2011, 03:56 PM

You mean like the one that functions south of the border?

roachboy · 04-27-2011, 04:18 PM

ahem.

Leto · 04-28-2011, 03:53 AM

Guys! They can hear us...

Baraka_Guru · 04-28-2011, 04:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leto

Guys! They can hear us...

Ignatieff has lost it....

Quote:

Combative Ignatieff says Tories can 'go to hell'

Les Whittington and Richard J. Brennan Staff Reporters

A combative Michael Ignatieff has stepped up criticisms of his political rivals, saying Jack Layton is “getting a free ride” and telling Conservatives “they can go to hell.”

Ignatieff, whose party has fallen into third place in the polls, told the Toronto Star editorial board Wednesday that a lot of the Liberals’ woes can be traced to the relentless Conservative attack ads.

“I am not going to complain about it because it seems to give the other guys too much damn credit. I don’t give these guys damn credit for anything,” the Liberal leader said, slamming his fist on the table. “I am not going to let other people frame me up … they can go to hell is what I have thought basically for two and a half years.

“I have spent my whole life dealing with bullies. Some of them had guns,” he said in a reference to his days as a journalist working in foreign countries. “You think this stuff shuts me down? You got to be kidding.”

He spoke to the Star hours before a rally intended to shore up the Liberals’ Toronto base. Ignatieff joined dozens of GTA Liberal candidates and former prime minister Jean Chrétien for a noisy, enthusiastic rally in North York.

Despite the polls, which show the Liberals trailing the NDP and the front-running Conservatives, Ignatieff says the game isn’t over and he’s still got a chance to win.

It’s “wake-up time” with respect to the NDP surge, he said, adding that Canadians should take a close look at Layton’s election promises.

“They just don’t get fiscal discipline,” he said.

The NDP’s $70 billion in “science fiction” campaign pledges would drive up the federal budget deficit and lead to higher taxes, Liberals say.

“It’s show and tell, brother … this is about the government of Canada … show us how you would reduce the deficit, show us how you dig us out of the Harper (deficit) hole, show us how you cost your programs. Don’t fool around here.”

He slammed Layton’s plan to pull Canadian military forces out of Afghanistan, saying “the NDP simply wants to walk away and pretend it never happened.”

The Liberals say they would honour Canada’s commitment to continue a training mission in Afghanistan until 2014.

Ignatieff ruled out any kind of merger with the NDP if the Conservatives come out on top in the election. The Liberals and the New Democrats have a completely different political history and view on how to govern Canada.

“They are two different traditions,” he said.

Ignatieff said from everything he sees and hears, the Liberal base is back and they are writing cheques to the party at a record rate, exceeding all expectations.

The Liberal leader said 66 per cent of Canadians are “sick and tired” of the Harper government and want to “throw the rascals out.”

“What the crowd is giving me is, they’re fed up. ‘We’re fed up of being manipulated, bullied, intimidated, lied to.’ It’s very strong out there,” he said.

“The Liberal Party is going to show up and vote Liberal on Monday.

“My firm belief is that my base is back and my base will vote on the 2nd of May.”

It is estimated that as many as 800,000 Liberal supporters stayed home in 2008 when Stéphane Dion was leading the Liberals.

Ignatieff also said pundits seem to be concentrating on the Liberal political fortunes. “But look at the trouble he’s in,” he said, referring to the weakening poll numbers for Harper’s Conservatives. “It’s not going so well for him either.”

The latest Angus Reid poll, done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse, puts the Conservatives at 35 per cent, down by one percentage point.

The NDP were close behind in the most recent poll at 30 per cent, the Liberals were at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois was at 7 per cent and the Green party was at 5 per cent.

On the issue of Iraq, Ignatieff said the thing he has learned in dealing with the United States “is you don’t believe what the American tells you.”

“You go into a room with the Americans, they have their sources of information and you had better be damn sure you have your own. You better be darn sure you don’t let yourself be persuaded by bad evidence.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/p...o-to-hell?bn=1

Charlatan · 04-28-2011, 04:12 PM

Ignatieff probably meant to come off sounding stalwart and prime-ministerial but instead it just looks like the blustering of a man who is grasping at straws. He's a smart guy but he just can't seem to connect with a larger audience. At least he's not as bad and hapless as Stephane Dion.

The Liberals really need to spend some time in the wilderness getting back to their roots.

Baraka_Guru · 04-30-2011, 12:42 PM

Well, it's the home stretch. The "Orange Crush" still has a lot of steam. The NDP are destroying in the polls in Quebec, and have even received an open-letter endorsement from two members of the Bloc. Wow.

Some commentary is suggesting that the NDP have gone from the margins to a truly national party with both Quebec support and a new seemingly realistic platform instead of the usual perceived idealism.

I'm still amazed at all this. A current poll shows Con 37% and NDP 33%. The Liberals are tanking and now voters are probably starting to look at the NDP as the true option to stop Harper. The only stumbling block will be those who vote for NDP when supporting the Liberals would have made more sense in certain ridings.

At this point, anything can happen. Anyone who follows polls know that they are an indicator but aren't gospel. Monday is going to be interesting.

Charlatan · 04-30-2011, 07:55 PM

A rub and tug from 16 years ago is all they can dig up to slander him? Wow. Sun TV is showing how they can bring Canadian politics to new and lower ground.

Baraka_Guru · 05-01-2011, 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan

A rub and tug from 16 years ago is all they can dig up to slander him? Wow. Sun TV is showing how they can bring Canadian politics to new and lower ground.

Yeah. It's kind of embarrassing. They try to smear him for something where no wrongdoing was found---over five elections ago.

And Ezra Levant is so obviously and tragically a Canadianized Glenn Beck. He's trying so hard to be straight talking, rabble rousing, and controversial, but you get the sense that he's having a difficult time of it because he's just....too....polite, eh?

And to extend the commentary on the NDP surge in Quebec, I just read that even Duceppe's seat itself is under threat: one poll put him just 0.4 percentage points ahead of his NDP opponent. Wow. He's held that seat for over 20 years.

---------- Post added at 11:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 AM ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan

Wow. Sun TV is showing how they can bring Canadian politics to new and lower ground.

I think that it's only a matter of time before this warrants a thread of its own, but the ~~Fox~~ Sun News Network has looked a bit awkward since their launch. It's like they truly did go with the Fox model but have kind of fumbled it by being too cautious. It's ironic how they said they were going to be all straight talking and would eschew political correctness. It's like they sold one thing and started with another. One early commentary I agreed with was that they should just drop the gloves already. It's like they're sitting on the fence. Levant is coming across as a right-wing and unfunny Rick Mercer. I'm not sure he's doing that intentionally. I'd say no.

I suppose this "exclusive" on Layton's "impropriety" is evidence that they're finding their feet....but seriously.....

Either shit or get off the pot.

fill23ca · 05-02-2011, 06:19 AM

What ever your political beliefs are fellow Canadians, just get out there and vote today!

Baraka_Guru · 05-02-2011, 07:21 AM

I voted over a week ago because I'm headed to St. John's today. By the time I land, the results should be in! Heck, with current technology, I will probably able to watch the tally on TV while sitting in a chair *points up* in the sky!

m0rpheus · 05-02-2011, 03:12 PM

Just got back from voting. We'll see how it goes I guess.

Charlatan · 05-02-2011, 04:57 PM

I watched the first Conservative win back in 2006 on a plane between Toronto and Las Vegas. It was great because I was sure I was going to miss the coverage.

I am standing by now to watch the coverage online from the other side of the world. Just over 30 minutes to go.

Martian · 05-02-2011, 06:53 PM

I'm angry. I'm afraid.

How can people vote for Harper? I believe the mean is honestly a sociopath. He's absolutely insane. I would rather have anyone other than Harper. I mean, seriously. Any person. I might consider some animals. Possibly a mineral or two.

I might revise this when I'm not feeling so furious. We'll see.

Leto · 05-02-2011, 06:54 PM

oh wow. A Conservative majority. So far 164 seats. And the NDP is the official opposition for the first time ever. 104 seats.

This is the first majority gov here in 7 years.

Liberals have imploded. 31 seats so far. and the Bloc? 4 seats - makes it irrelevant.

m0rpheus · 05-02-2011, 06:59 PM

I never thought I'd see the NDP as the official opposition.

I can't help but wonder how many ridings the Conservatives won through the NDP and Liberals splitting the vote much the same way the Liberals used to win by the PC and Reform splitting the vote.

Martian · 05-02-2011, 07:26 PM

There's little doubt that vote splitting played a role.

I think, ironically, the NDP surge worked against them in Ontario. There's still a lot of ill will towards the NDP here, and when the numbers started coming out over the weekend I suspect a lot of voters reacted by going in the opposite direction.

So, fear. And ignorance.

Go Canada.

m0rpheus · 05-02-2011, 07:32 PM

Just listening to Iggy's speach there, was it just me or was he hinting at looking at a merger between the NDP and Liberals?

Martian · 05-02-2011, 07:54 PM

I went for a brief walk, and I think I'm calm enough now to concede defeat gracefully, though "deeply unhappy" doesn't even begin to describe how I feel about these results.

I wonder if anything will come of these:

Hoax calls try to mislead voters on polling stations
Stephen Harper breaks election rules, campaigns on radio on election day

I'm also rather furious with my former riding for re-electing Bev Oda, who seemingly will face no repercussions stemming from her gross improprieties.

At any rate, things are decided until 2015. Not much to do now other than sit back and watch.

I think politically a merger on the left is the smart move, especially given where the Liberal party stands right now -- Ignatieff is fighting for his own seat and losing, and the rest of his party isn't looking too hot either. I just wonder what sort of impact that might have overall. It seems that a lot of fear and bad sentiment towards the NDP is what drove Harper into his majority tonight. Would a merger mitigate that, or would it worsen it? Where do the bulk of the Liberal voters stand? If the Liberal party disappeared, would they shift their votes left or right?

I'm not sure that either party will be willing to consider that. There's also a possibility that the Bloc may see a resurgence if the NDP can't prove effective, which would undo much of the gains the NDP saw this round. Again, it's really a wait and see situation at this point. How the NDP play their role as opposition is going to be an important factor in a lot of these decisions.

It's interesting how the Liberal position now mirrors that of the Conservatives in the early nineties.

Duceppe lost his seat, and things are looking bad for Ignatieff too. Whatever you thought of him, it looks like Michael Ignatieff's political career in Canada is effectively over. I just wonder what this is going to mean for the BQ? It's difficult to imagine them coming back from this kind of a thrashing (I know, this contradicts what I just said).

I need to digest this. There are severe implications all over this election.

Charlatan · 05-03-2011, 12:16 AM

I don't think we will see a merger on the left until at least another election. The Liberal Party is still a massive machine. Even the PC Party, down to two seats, did not give into a merger with the Reform (Alliance) Party for quite a while (and even that took treachery).

And I am not so sure I want to see a merger at this point. Canadians are a fickle bunch. This election result is really just a big: Let's see what happens. They (elections of this sort) happen from time to time, at all levels of government. If Harper turns out to be the social conservative we are afraid he will prove to be, he will get turfed in the next election (think: Mulroney).

Make no mistake, I am not happy Harper won. I think, even being conservative, this Conservative majority will be a very bad thing for Canada. If a minority has kept the worst aspects of his government in check, I can only imagine how bad this is going to get before 2015.

The big upside is the decline of the Bloc and the sovereignists. They appear to have given a nod to Federalism or at least a new way of engaging with the rest of Canada. With the Bloc no longer in possession of Official Party Status, they also lose a lot of funding and support. I will not be sad to see them go. Let's hope it's for good. (that said, I did like Ducieppe and wish he'd been a member of another party).

Ignatieff, despite losing his seat appears to want to stay on as leader. Wow. That's ballsy. I think he really needs to go. The Liberals need to spend some time in the wilderness re-building themselves. Let's face it, they've never recovered completely from Sponsorship Scandal. They need new leadership and they need to rebuild their base (or at least significantly repair it).

I am sure there will be more as the Conservatives have a long list of things they want to accomplish in their first 100 days... most of which just looks like garbage.

PS: Stephane Dion won his seat in Montreal...

PPS: How is it possible that Bev Oda can be re-elected and by such a margin... it's astounding!

PPPS: Any bets on how long until they scrap the CBC?

settie · 05-03-2011, 12:47 AM

I'm not surprised whatsoever at the poll results: Canadian voters are shallow and predictable.
On easter weekend, I talked politics with a few family members. It seems a lot of the older generation are so against NDP because of their majority fuck up several years ago. My mom likes to bring up the fact that they blew millions of dollars and raised our debt. This was the 90s, or 80s. Not too sure. whatever.
I didn't get to vote. I was working busy hours during the advanced polling, and I didn't know who to vote for at the time. And today, I worked 9am-9:30pm, the exact same time frame as the voting was scheduled. I sped like mad to get to the polls before 9:30, but as I ran in, a douchebag asshole told me to leave. It wasn't even 9:30 yet. I was so livid. No one has the right to take away my vote like that. I wish I could complain to someone about it.
Though, I was still undecided to my vote. I liked green party views and values, but voting for them is like not voting at all. So I couldn't decide which douchebag to pick.
I'm just so fucking furious I was turned away at the polls. SO fucking angry.

m0rpheus · 05-03-2011, 01:09 AM

Settie for next time: From the elections Canada website.
Elections Canada Online | FAQs on Voting

Quote:

Originally Posted by elections canada

Am I allowed time off work to vote?
By law, qualified electors must have three consecutive hours to cast their vote on election day. If your hours of work do not allow for three consecutive hours to vote, your employer must give you time off.

For example, if you live in a riding where voting hours are 9:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. and you usually work from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m., your hours of work will not allow three consecutive hours for voting. To give you three consecutive hours to vote, your employer could allow you to arrive late (at 12:30 p.m.), let you leave early (at 6:30 p.m.), or give you three hours off at some point during the work day.

Your employer has the right to decide when the time off will be given.

This rule may not apply if you work in the transportation industry

Ask your work to come in a bit late/leave a bit early so you can vote. Unless you are in the transportation industry it's against the law for them to say no.

That said, if you were there before 9:30 you should have been able to vote regardless.

GreyWolf · 05-03-2011, 02:26 AM

I don't think the vote splitting was as big a factor as most seem to feel. The complete repudiation of the Liberal party outside of Quebec was basically a rejection of Ignatieff, who was seen as an ineffectual, effete intellectual with no real leadership quality. His selection by the liberals was an attempt to distance themselves from the rampant corruption of the Chretien years. It didn't work, particularly inside Quebec, where the disgust with the Liberals was still very strong. It's the only area where the Conservatives didn't make gains.

Basically, the election seems to be a very strong message that the country wants stability at the federal level, and is willing to accept the likes of Harper to attain that. One has to wonder how much we'll pay for that.

Leto · 05-03-2011, 04:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by settie

..... It seems a lot of the older generation are so against NDP because of their majority fuck up several years ago. My mom likes to bring up the fact that they blew millions of dollars and raised our debt. This was the 90s, or 80s. Not too sure. whatever.....

It was early '90's (90 - 95) and it wasn't "whatever". it was a big deal. Nobody who lived through that would want to replicate the experience. First time I ever saw mass demonstrations by Bay street - bankers etc marching on Queen's Park. Teachers having to work for free to balance the books (Rae Days) Unions pissed when the NDP realized that they couldn't afford to sustain their programmes. And now? Bob Rae is a Liberal - one of the few to hold onto his riding last night.

As for being told to leave the polling station... you shoulda told them where to go. At the very least tell them to call the police to make you leave.

---------- Post added at 08:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:06 AM ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leto

I'm with you GreyWolf. I think that you've hit all the points bang on. I even get the feeling that the Tories are going to make inroads in the GTA (well, City of Toronto at any rate). This is exactly what they wanted - to get an election without calling it themselves and ending up with a majority.

Greywolf - you must be psychic.....

silent_jay · 05-03-2011, 07:25 AM

Seems Iggy is done. Bring on Justin Trudeau.

Quote:

Michael Ignatieff is quitting as the Liberal leader after his party took an electoral drubbing on Monday night.

The Liberals were reduced to 34 seats in the House of Commons down from 77 and won only 18.9 per cent of the popular vote.

Not only did Ignatieff lead the party to its worst showing in its history, but he also lost his Toronto-area seat in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

Ignatieff told a news conference that he will "not remain leader of party" and "will arrange succession in due time."

Ignatieff said he's asked Liberal Ralph Goodale to call a caucus meeting next Wednesday in Ottawa.

Despite his party's disastrous showing, Ignatieff said he believes the party can return as a political force. He said the Liberals were devastated in 1958 by John Diefenbaker's Progressive Conservatives and returned with Lester B. Pearson's minority governments.

He said the "surest guarantee" for the Liberal Party's future is four years of Conservative government and four years of NDP opposition.

During the news conference, Ignatieff said Canada needs a party of the political centre and downplayed talk of a merger with the NDP.

The NDP and the Liberals hold different traditions, and that, Ignatieff said, will make it difficult for the two parties to merge.

"People ask whether the Liberal Party has a future. I think the surest guarantee of the future for the Liberal Party of Canada is four years of Conservative government and four years of NDP opposition," Ignatieff said.

He said he found it difficult to recover from the negative advertising the Conservatives rolled out against him prior to the election campaign.

"Of course they attacked me, of course they vilified me," Ignatieff said. "Of course they engaged in an absolutely unscrupulous campaign of personal attack. But look, the only thing Canadians like less than a loser is a sore loser, and I go out of politics with my head held high.

"When Canadians met me, they thought, 'Hey, he is not so bad.' But I didn't meet enough Canadians."

The outgoing Liberal leader said he does not know what is next in his future, but he said he hopes to teach young Canadians.
Caucus to select interim leader Wednesday

"What I would like to do is go back and teach young Canadians," Ignatieff said. "I am a teacher born and bred, and I am looking — really looking — forward to teaching. No offers yet and no reasonable offers refused. But that is where I will go."

The Liberals caucus will meet next Wednesday to select an interim leader, and then the party must go through the process of picking a full-time leader.

Ignatieff said the process to select a permanent leader could happen by the fall. He said he's hoping the next Liberal leader may be a young woman.

"There must be someone out there, possible in the room this morning and possibly watching on television, who looks at me and thinks, 'He didn't get there, but I will," Ignatieff said.

"And I just hope that that person, possibly a woman, possibly a young woman, I hope it is a young woman, will hold true to that dream of public life and public service. It's what I believed in. It's what I've always believed in."

There is already speculation about possible replacements for Ignatieff.

New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, who briefly launched a leadership bid in 2008 before dropping out to support Ignatieff, is not ruling out a potential run.

"I think I can and should play a big role in the rebuilding and the renewal of our party," LeBlanc said.

"I'm relatively young, I have the advantage of … being a francophone outside Quebec — which I always thought is an important ingredient in rebuilding our party."

Ignatieff quits as Liberal leader - Canada Votes 2011 - CBC News

So disappointed in my former riding in Ontario for re-electing that embarassing twat Cheryl Gallant, guess the people in the Ottawa Valley enjoy being embarassed constantly, then again, it's not really surprising, the old people there are terrified of change and I guess they like an MP who only shows up for photo ops and doesn't actually do anything, enjoy folks, I won't be around long for this Conservative majority.

Baraka_Guru · 05-03-2011, 12:21 PM

An accurate post-mortem on this is days away, i.e. regarding the vote splitting, etc.

What we do know is this: Harper has little concern with the political process if it gets in the way of what he wants, and now he has far more power. However, most of those who voted for him aren't as right-wing as he is and so he has to keep them in mind when he goes about his work.

This is not necessarily the beginning of a dark right-wing age in Canada. Even if it does happen, it will only mobilize the Liberals to get their shit together. Picking a good leader for starters.

Though I do like the idea of the NDP as a new government-in-waiting. Give it time. It's now the populist left vs. the populist right.

As for Harper and his intentions: now we wait.

Charlatan · 05-03-2011, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baraka_guru

What we do know is this: Harper has little concern with the political process if it gets in the way of what he wants, and now he has far more power. However, most of those who voted for him aren't as right-wing as he is and so he has to keep them in mind when he goes about his work.

This is pretty much all we have to keep Harper in check. The swing vote in Canada is not insignificant. Many of those who voted Conservative this time are small c Conservatives that would have been comfortable voting Progressive Conservative or Liberal in the past. Canadians tend to vote in cycles and the current cycle has drifted right-ward in some key areas of the nation.

Canada lives in the centre but there wasn't much on offer in the centre. It will be interesting to see if the NDP, in their new role as opposition, drifts closer to the centre over the next few years. Layton has been known as someone who is willing to bi-partisan when it matter. He'd rather build than divide.

If Harper goes down the social conservative path and enacts laws against abortion, re-opens the same-sex marriage debate, or goes too far down the war and crime road that neo-conservatives love to travel, he will not be re-elected in 2015. I am with GreyWolf in the idea that Canadians were hungry for "stability" (I think this stability is a fiction but it's what people are buying into), but I cannot believe that the majority want our government to enact laws that threaten our socially liberal foundations... including national health care.

Baraka_Guru · 05-03-2011, 05:52 PM

Well, Harper's majority consists of 40% of the vote on an estimated 60% voter turnout. Some quick voodoo math tells me that the current "majority" government was put in place by barely a quarter of eligible voters. [Why does that sound wrong? Someone tell me that's wrong. If it's right, it's simply atrocious.]

If Harper gets reckless, it's going to create an even bigger question mark over the next election.

Sheesh.... "2015." Why does that sound like forever from now?

Charlatan · 05-03-2011, 06:36 PM

Unless there is Election Reform, it doesn't that he was elected by 40% of those who voted or 25% of the electorate. And you know the Conservatives are not interested in Election Reform. First past the post works just nicely for them, thank you.

I have a feeling that Harper is going to play it safe in the short term. He is in this for the long haul and, if anything, he knows how to play it safe and, more importantly, get his way.

Baraka_Guru · 05-03-2011, 07:05 PM

The election reform that Harper is interested in includes electing the Senate to limited terms and removing the $2 per vote subsidy.

Charlatan · 05-03-2011, 07:54 PM

I am fine with either an elected or an abolished Senate. At present, it serves as little more than a patronage appointment and a relatively sober second thought.

An elected Senate would add an interesting layer to Parliament.

blahblah454 · 05-04-2011, 07:37 PM

Well I would call myself a conservative, but I did not want Harper in power. I live in Alberta and work in the oil industry and am entrepreneurial by nature, and I voted for NDP just to stick it to Harper. Vote split that.

Baraka_Guru · 05-04-2011, 07:40 PM

That's interesting. I live in East Alberta, formerly known as Southern Ontario.

blahblah454 · 05-04-2011, 07:49 PM

Really think it will be that bad Baraka?

Baraka_Guru · 05-04-2011, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blahblah454

Really think it will be that bad Baraka?

What exactly? Federal politics? Ontario?

I think federal politics will be interesting. Harper is a smart guy, so there's a distinct possibility that he knows his support comes from both the right and the centre-right. He can't abandon even a small margin of that or his whole support system will come crashing down. I hope this means that many of his social ideologies will stay on the back burner.

If he focuses on economic recovery and returning to a surplus, then so be it. The problems will arise in his methods and who or what he puts on the chopping block when it comes down to it. If he goes at it like a bull in a china cabinet, it may ultimately spell disaster for the Conservatives over the long term. Following up a few shaky minorities with a destructive/controversial majority will only further galvanize the left/centre-left.

As far as Ontario is concerned, dating back to the last Toronto municipal election, there has been a sentiment of fear and anger regarding politics and society. The election of Rob Ford as mayor, followed up with this recent Conservative federal victory (much of which was won in southern Ontario), sets the stage for the upcoming Ontario election this fall whereby Dalton McGuinty's Liberal party might suffer not only from this Conservative "wave" but from his own unpopularity. It doesn't look good.

So what I'm looking at here in Toronto---downtown/midtown in an island of NDP/Liberal supporters---is an oncoming "triple threat" of conservatism based on fear and anger. With Ford, it was spending and taxes (the "gravy train"). With Harper, it was crime and economic stability. With the provincial election? I think it will be much of the same and more.

Ontario hasn't been doing so hot since the beginning of the recession.

04-27-2011, 04:39 AM	#41 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	I think an NDP majority is a pipe dream. It will never happen; the political landscape isn't going to allow that. It will be a minority at best, and that itself is a longshot. A recent poll: CON 35% NDP 30% LIB 22% This indicates the NDP surge continues. They're now within 5 points of the Conservatives, and have an 8-point lead over the Liberals. I would have never expected this to happen, and I can't see how any of this won't lead to a healthy boost in NDP seats. In other news: Advanced polls up 34.5% from 2008 election If this indicates that voter turnout will be higher than in 2008, then I'm pleased. Of course, maybe it was just because it was the long weekend. A part of me hopes it indicates that something's afoot, and people are not willing to give the Tories another shot. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

04-27-2011, 05:06 AM	#42 (permalink)
Leto Junkie Location: The Danforth	maybe the start of our own grass-roots a.k.a 'tea-party' movement? A coffee-house putsch? __________________ You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey And I never saw someone say that before You held my hand and we walked home the long way You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

04-27-2011, 05:33 AM	#43 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Rick Mercer for prime minister! __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

04-27-2011, 08:19 AM	#44 (permalink)
Tully Mars Living in a Warmer Insanity Super Moderator Location: Yucatan, Mexico	Canada has a political system? Who knew? __________________ I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

04-27-2011, 03:21 PM	#45 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Shhh. We don't actually have a political system. We just stage these "elections" for the benefit of our neighbours to the south. We don't want them to know we are a Socialist Utopia, we'd have to close the border. Baraka, you are right, an NDP majority will not happen (probably ever) and a minority is a stretch as well. The big problem for the NDP is Ontario. Despite their national numbers growing, their numbers in Ontario are still sitting at around 18% or so. It's up from 9% but isn't likely gain them many, if any, new seats. Their gains in Quebec might earn them enough seats to get close to official opposition status but Ontario is going to keep them down. There are still a few more days left and Ignatieff could still sink further. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

04-27-2011, 03:47 PM	#46 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	Canada doesn't have a political system. In order to have a political system we'd have to be able to form a functioning government. __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

04-27-2011, 03:56 PM	#47 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	You mean like the one that functions south of the border? __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

04-27-2011, 04:18 PM	#48 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	ahem. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

04-28-2011, 03:53 AM	#49 (permalink)
Leto Junkie Location: The Danforth	Guys! They can hear us... __________________ You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey And I never saw someone say that before You held my hand and we walked home the long way You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

04-28-2011, 04:12 PM	#51 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Ignatieff probably meant to come off sounding stalwart and prime-ministerial but instead it just looks like the blustering of a man who is grasping at straws. He's a smart guy but he just can't seem to connect with a larger audience. At least he's not as bad and hapless as Stephane Dion. The Liberals really need to spend some time in the wilderness getting back to their roots. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

04-30-2011, 12:42 PM	#52 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Well, it's the home stretch. The "Orange Crush" still has a lot of steam. The NDP are destroying in the polls in Quebec, and have even received an open-letter endorsement from two members of the Bloc. Wow. Some commentary is suggesting that the NDP have gone from the margins to a truly national party with both Quebec support and a new seemingly realistic platform instead of the usual perceived idealism. I'm still amazed at all this. A current poll shows Con 37% and NDP 33%. The Liberals are tanking and now voters are probably starting to look at the NDP as the true option to stop Harper. The only stumbling block will be those who vote for NDP when supporting the Liberals would have made more sense in certain ridings. At this point, anything can happen. Anyone who follows polls know that they are an indicator but aren't gospel. Monday is going to be interesting. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot Last edited by Baraka_Guru; 04-30-2011 at 12:53 PM..

04-30-2011, 07:55 PM	#53 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	A rub and tug from 16 years ago is all they can dig up to slander him? Wow. Sun TV is showing how they can bring Canadian politics to new and lower ground. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

05-02-2011, 06:19 AM	#55 (permalink)
fill23ca Crazy Location: Ontario	What ever your political beliefs are fellow Canadians, just get out there and vote today! __________________ "The worst day of your life, so far." Homer Simpson

05-02-2011, 07:21 AM	#56 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	I voted over a week ago because I'm headed to St. John's today. By the time I land, the results should be in! Heck, with current technology, I will probably able to watch the tally on TV while sitting in a chair points up in the sky! __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

05-02-2011, 03:12 PM	#57 (permalink)
m0rpheus bad craziness Location: Guelph, Ontario	Just got back from voting. We'll see how it goes I guess. __________________ "it never got weird enough for me." - Hunter S. Thompson

05-02-2011, 04:57 PM	#58 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	I watched the first Conservative win back in 2006 on a plane between Toronto and Las Vegas. It was great because I was sure I was going to miss the coverage. I am standing by now to watch the coverage online from the other side of the world. Just over 30 minutes to go. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

05-02-2011, 06:53 PM	#59 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	I'm angry. I'm afraid. How can people vote for Harper? I believe the mean is honestly a sociopath. He's absolutely insane. I would rather have anyone other than Harper. I mean, seriously. Any person. I might consider some animals. Possibly a mineral or two. I might revise this when I'm not feeling so furious. We'll see. __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

05-02-2011, 06:54 PM	#60 (permalink)
Leto Junkie Location: The Danforth	oh wow. A Conservative majority. So far 164 seats. And the NDP is the official opposition for the first time ever. 104 seats. This is the first majority gov here in 7 years. Liberals have imploded. 31 seats so far. and the Bloc? 4 seats - makes it irrelevant. __________________ You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey And I never saw someone say that before You held my hand and we walked home the long way You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

05-02-2011, 06:59 PM	#61 (permalink)
m0rpheus bad craziness Location: Guelph, Ontario	I never thought I'd see the NDP as the official opposition. I can't help but wonder how many ridings the Conservatives won through the NDP and Liberals splitting the vote much the same way the Liberals used to win by the PC and Reform splitting the vote. __________________ "it never got weird enough for me." - Hunter S. Thompson

05-02-2011, 07:26 PM	#62 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	There's little doubt that vote splitting played a role. I think, ironically, the NDP surge worked against them in Ontario. There's still a lot of ill will towards the NDP here, and when the numbers started coming out over the weekend I suspect a lot of voters reacted by going in the opposite direction. So, fear. And ignorance. Go Canada. __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame

05-02-2011, 07:32 PM	#63 (permalink)
m0rpheus bad craziness Location: Guelph, Ontario	Just listening to Iggy's speach there, was it just me or was he hinting at looking at a merger between the NDP and Liberals? __________________ "it never got weird enough for me." - Hunter S. Thompson

05-02-2011, 07:54 PM	#64 (permalink)
Martian Young Crumudgeon Location: Canada	I went for a brief walk, and I think I'm calm enough now to concede defeat gracefully, though "deeply unhappy" doesn't even begin to describe how I feel about these results. I wonder if anything will come of these: Hoax calls try to mislead voters on polling stations Stephen Harper breaks election rules, campaigns on radio on election day I'm also rather furious with my former riding for re-electing Bev Oda, who seemingly will face no repercussions stemming from her gross improprieties. At any rate, things are decided until 2015. Not much to do now other than sit back and watch. I think politically a merger on the left is the smart move, especially given where the Liberal party stands right now -- Ignatieff is fighting for his own seat and losing, and the rest of his party isn't looking too hot either. I just wonder what sort of impact that might have overall. It seems that a lot of fear and bad sentiment towards the NDP is what drove Harper into his majority tonight. Would a merger mitigate that, or would it worsen it? Where do the bulk of the Liberal voters stand? If the Liberal party disappeared, would they shift their votes left or right? I'm not sure that either party will be willing to consider that. There's also a possibility that the Bloc may see a resurgence if the NDP can't prove effective, which would undo much of the gains the NDP saw this round. Again, it's really a wait and see situation at this point. How the NDP play their role as opposition is going to be an important factor in a lot of these decisions. It's interesting how the Liberal position now mirrors that of the Conservatives in the early nineties. Duceppe lost his seat, and things are looking bad for Ignatieff too. Whatever you thought of him, it looks like Michael Ignatieff's political career in Canada is effectively over. I just wonder what this is going to mean for the BQ? It's difficult to imagine them coming back from this kind of a thrashing (I know, this contradicts what I just said). I need to digest this. There are severe implications all over this election. __________________ I wake up in the morning more tired than before I slept I get through cryin' and I'm sadder than before I wept I get through thinkin' now, and the thoughts have left my head I get through speakin' and I can't remember, not a word that I said - Ben Harper, Show Me A Little Shame Last edited by Martian; 05-02-2011 at 08:17 PM..

05-03-2011, 12:16 AM	#65 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	I don't think we will see a merger on the left until at least another election. The Liberal Party is still a massive machine. Even the PC Party, down to two seats, did not give into a merger with the Reform (Alliance) Party for quite a while (and even that took treachery). And I am not so sure I want to see a merger at this point. Canadians are a fickle bunch. This election result is really just a big: Let's see what happens. They (elections of this sort) happen from time to time, at all levels of government. If Harper turns out to be the social conservative we are afraid he will prove to be, he will get turfed in the next election (think: Mulroney). Make no mistake, I am not happy Harper won. I think, even being conservative, this Conservative majority will be a very bad thing for Canada. If a minority has kept the worst aspects of his government in check, I can only imagine how bad this is going to get before 2015. The big upside is the decline of the Bloc and the sovereignists. They appear to have given a nod to Federalism or at least a new way of engaging with the rest of Canada. With the Bloc no longer in possession of Official Party Status, they also lose a lot of funding and support. I will not be sad to see them go. Let's hope it's for good. (that said, I did like Ducieppe and wish he'd been a member of another party). Ignatieff, despite losing his seat appears to want to stay on as leader. Wow. That's ballsy. I think he really needs to go. The Liberals need to spend some time in the wilderness re-building themselves. Let's face it, they've never recovered completely from Sponsorship Scandal. They need new leadership and they need to rebuild their base (or at least significantly repair it). I am sure there will be more as the Conservatives have a long list of things they want to accomplish in their first 100 days... most of which just looks like garbage. PS: Stephane Dion won his seat in Montreal... PPS: How is it possible that Bev Oda can be re-elected and by such a margin... it's astounding! PPPS: Any bets on how long until they scrap the CBC? __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke Last edited by Charlatan; 05-03-2011 at 01:16 AM..

05-03-2011, 12:47 AM	#66 (permalink)
settie Junkie	I'm not surprised whatsoever at the poll results: Canadian voters are shallow and predictable. On easter weekend, I talked politics with a few family members. It seems a lot of the older generation are so against NDP because of their majority fuck up several years ago. My mom likes to bring up the fact that they blew millions of dollars and raised our debt. This was the 90s, or 80s. Not too sure. whatever. I didn't get to vote. I was working busy hours during the advanced polling, and I didn't know who to vote for at the time. And today, I worked 9am-9:30pm, the exact same time frame as the voting was scheduled. I sped like mad to get to the polls before 9:30, but as I ran in, a douchebag asshole told me to leave. It wasn't even 9:30 yet. I was so livid. No one has the right to take away my vote like that. I wish I could complain to someone about it. Though, I was still undecided to my vote. I liked green party views and values, but voting for them is like not voting at all. So I couldn't decide which douchebag to pick. I'm just so fucking furious I was turned away at the polls. SO fucking angry.

05-03-2011, 02:26 AM	#68 (permalink)
GreyWolf Sober Location: Eastern Canada	I don't think the vote splitting was as big a factor as most seem to feel. The complete repudiation of the Liberal party outside of Quebec was basically a rejection of Ignatieff, who was seen as an ineffectual, effete intellectual with no real leadership quality. His selection by the liberals was an attempt to distance themselves from the rampant corruption of the Chretien years. It didn't work, particularly inside Quebec, where the disgust with the Liberals was still very strong. It's the only area where the Conservatives didn't make gains. Basically, the election seems to be a very strong message that the country wants stability at the federal level, and is willing to accept the likes of Harper to attain that. One has to wonder how much we'll pay for that. __________________ *The secret to great marksmanship is deciding what the target was AFTER you've shot.*

05-03-2011, 12:21 PM	#71 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	An accurate post-mortem on this is days away, i.e. regarding the vote splitting, etc. What we do know is this: Harper has little concern with the political process if it gets in the way of what he wants, and now he has far more power. However, most of those who voted for him aren't as right-wing as he is and so he has to keep them in mind when he goes about his work. This is not necessarily the beginning of a dark right-wing age in Canada. Even if it does happen, it will only mobilize the Liberals to get their shit together. Picking a good leader for starters. Though I do like the idea of the NDP as a new government-in-waiting. Give it time. It's now the populist left vs. the populist right. As for Harper and his intentions: now we wait. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

05-03-2011, 05:52 PM	#73 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	Well, Harper's majority consists of 40% of the vote on an estimated 60% voter turnout. Some quick voodoo math tells me that the current "majority" government was put in place by barely a quarter of eligible voters. [Why does that sound wrong? Someone tell me that's wrong. If it's right, it's simply atrocious.] If Harper gets reckless, it's going to create an even bigger question mark over the next election. Sheesh.... "2015." Why does that sound like forever from now? __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

05-03-2011, 06:36 PM	#74 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Unless there is Election Reform, it doesn't that he was elected by 40% of those who voted or 25% of the electorate. And you know the Conservatives are not interested in Election Reform. First past the post works just nicely for them, thank you. I have a feeling that Harper is going to play it safe in the short term. He is in this for the long haul and, if anything, he knows how to play it safe and, more importantly, get his way. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

05-03-2011, 07:05 PM	#75 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	The election reform that Harper is interested in includes electing the Senate to limited terms and removing the $2 per vote subsidy. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

05-03-2011, 07:54 PM	#76 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	I am fine with either an elected or an abolished Senate. At present, it serves as little more than a patronage appointment and a relatively sober second thought. An elected Senate would add an interesting layer to Parliament. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

05-04-2011, 07:37 PM	#77 (permalink)
blahblah454 Let's put a smile on that face Location: On the road...	Well I would call myself a conservative, but I did not want Harper in power. I live in Alberta and work in the oil industry and am entrepreneurial by nature, and I voted for NDP just to stick it to Harper. Vote split that.

05-04-2011, 07:40 PM	#78 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	That's interesting. I live in East Alberta, formerly known as Southern Ontario. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

05-04-2011, 07:49 PM	#79 (permalink)
blahblah454 Let's put a smile on that face Location: On the road...	Really think it will be that bad Baraka?