Assume they get him to resign today, then what? Do they live with his hand pick successor? What changes? It will take time to have open and fair elections, what is wrong with having an orderly transition when that is a clear and obvious option?

Even that as a given, the structural problems are still there. In Egypt the average household spends about 50% of their income on food.
( The 25 Countries That Will Be Screwed By A World Food Crisis ) The country has had declining oil production with an increasing reliance on net imports. The threat of increased food inflation over the next few years is high and poverty rates in the country will continue to get worse before improvement. An orderly transition, from an outsider's view, seems important for living conditions. During this revolution exports from Egypt have materially declined which means less national income and will make living conditions worse.

the central demand from the revolution---and i think it's fair to call it that---is that mubarak step down. it is mubarak and his circle who assume that the only alternative to themselves is chaos.

suleiman has used this vague, unfounded "fear" of chaos---put into play by mubarak et al to justify staying in power and trying to ride things out to the point where attention turns elsewhere and they can turn the army loose---which has already been happening btw

Egypt's army 'involved in detentions and torture' | World news | The Guardian

third suleiman is mubarak's proxy. the cabinet is the same people as the old. there has been no transition. mubarak has operated in bad faith for 30 years with respect to egypt's people. it's no surprise that noone believes that this is a transitional government.

four, the revolution has widened into a general strike. if mubarak wants to avoid the collapse, he will have to leave sooner rather than later. the situation is no longer if mubarak leaves there will be problems----the situation is that if mubarak stays there will be problems. this is a revolutionary situation.

five there is no opposition to orderly transition---it's pretty clear if you actually pay attention to what people are saying in/around/about the revolt itself that everyone WANTS an orderly transition---but without mubarak.

one aspect of that transition is an immediate dissolution of parliament--which is stacked with ndp people "elected" in obviously rigged elections---and the beginning of the fashioning of a new constitution. you know, like the framers did in the united states. it was ok for the united states in 1787....but it's too big a risk for egypt now? horseshit.

lastly, i really dont understand what you think you're demonstrating by trotting out cherrypicked economic data that everyone already knows about an presenting it as if you're moses descending from the mount. it is in the interests of all the egyptian people---except for those inside the oligarchy that has pillaged the place for the last 30 years by virtue of their alignment with mubarak---that this regime end.

the arguments are political ethical and economic. it is not important that you can't seem to figure that out.


there are arguments that people who buy the worldview centered on the american national security state can make for mubarak staying in power---but you're not making any of them. those arguments are all rubbish in any event. the only people who buy them have been getting briefed by fading conservatives and lobbyists in the employ of likud. you know, the same tired old reactionaries that have opposed democracy as something more than a word where-ever it has raised its head for 70 years.

Ace... as long as Mubarak is in power nothing will change. He has been promising political reform since 1982 and there hasn't been one ounce of change. I can understand that people might be a little fed up.

I don't think anyone isn't asking for orderly transition. What they are asking for is Mubarak to step away from the levers of power so he can't influence the transition in his favour.

not sure if this has been shown or reported on extensively on western media, but googles head of marketing in the middle east Wael Ghonim was arrested after the January 25th protests. he disappeared for 12 days without anyone knowing where he was or what happened to him. he has been credited with being the person who started the facebook revolution.

he was released 2 days ago and has resurfaced with an emotional video on egptian TV.

The video speaks for itself. In arabic with english subtitles in Time Magazines story.

Google's Wael Ghonim: A Leader for Egyptian Protesters? - TIME

there are reports beginning to surface that mubarak will turn over power to suleiman tonight. they're not confirmed.

Egypt protests - Thursday 10 February | World news | guardian.co.uk

suleiman clearly has no credibility. so as one of the protestors said, the response will likely be rewriting the signs and continuing.

however, the process of forming the kind of positions that make sense in a game geared toward eliminating the mubarak clique, the opposition is now proposing an immediate suspension of the constitution, a disbanding of parliament and appointment of a three-person council to oversee a transition geared toward open, free and fair elections. the council would include representatives of the opposition, military and judiciary and would be geared around it's own elimination.

meanwhile strikes are spreading and now involve doctors and lawyers, who have appeared in considerable numbers as professional guilds amongst the protestors in front of parliament and in tahrir square:

Live blog Feb 10 - Egypt protests | Al Jazeera Blogs


with the interior ministry, suleiman and foreign minister all making noises about a "coup" undertaken by "adventurers" bent on "chaos" as a justification for increased repression at the same time.

things may be approaching a tipping point.

So just to recap:

People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: No.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: Okay, I appoint a vice president.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: No.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: I fire my cabinet and hire a new set which I picked.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: No.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: Okay, I'll leave in eight months.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: No.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: Okay, I'll let all of my family resign from their government posts.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: No.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.
Mubarak: Okay, I'll go now and leave in place the person that I appointed.
People: We want to elect our own leaders.


Did I miss anything? This reminds me of what I tell my toddler: You need to put on your "listening ears." That means you, Mubarak.

not to this point. the last line may be different though. at the moment, it's not at all clear what is to follow mubarak---it's just as likely to be a military coup as suleiman. i think the sense that the puppet government has no legitimacy is way bigger than you or i imagine tracking this from a distance. and the strike wave means that the stakes are way higher than they have been.

there are a few possible outcomes here but i've no real sense of which way things will go.

There are different kinds of power. Mubarak is currently impotent as a leader. One of the most important keys involved in protest is knowing when the victory has been won. Mubarak's resignation now is all about symbolism.

actually, ace, it's not obvious yet what the resignation would mean---if it happens-----because it's not obvious what would be in place afterward. it could mean any number of things. it's---you know----complicated and uncertain.

The current situation is chaos, that is the point of an uprising or "revolution". However, the long-term issues are still on the table and actually may be more important. People need to start to transition from the current situation to clearly defining what the long-term goals are.


What is with all of these un-named conservatives? Who the hell are you talking about?

---------- Post added at 04:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:22 PM ----------

It is not possible for Mubarak to revert back to his old ways. He no longer has control of the nation. There is going to be a power vacuum between now and when official elections are held. No structural problems will be solved during this time. These things we do know. These things are not complicated.

rb-I forgot to finish my thoughts, as I was distracted, I edited the post.

no, ace, the opposition does not want "chaos"---the opposition wants democracy. they want an end to the state of emergency. they want an end to routine torture. they want something better than they've had.


when i talk about people who oppose democracy when it's more than a word every time it raises it's head, i refer to people inside the american national security state and the people who, wittingly or not, carry shit for them----like you do----but you're certainly not unique.

I now have Al Jazeera on the TV in the background*, as I'm hoping to hear a positive development from Mubarak's upcoming speech.

It will be interesting to see how a transition is proposed. If Mubarak suggests merely handing the reins over to Suleiman, then I'm sure that won't be enough. As much of the commentary suggests, if Mubarak is genuine is handing power back to the people, the country should set up a council of some kind until legitimate elections are held.

Regardless, it's nice to hear the current timbre coming from the crowd in Liberation Square.

I'm not sure, either, how things will play out; however, it's time, at least, for Mubarak to step down.



*I noticed how Al Jazeera has set up a campaign on their website for Americans to "demand" Al Jazeera in the U.S.

reports are proliferating now that indicate a military coup. what that entails i do not know.
i hope it takes out the whole of the suleiman cabinet and dissolves parliament so that the constitutional process can get under way...transition to elections, etc.

worst scenario, assuming mubarak fucks off, is suleiman still in place, this puppet ndp regime still in place.

I haven't heard anything definitive about a coup. I think if Mubarak's next action does not allow for a council (i.e. a ceding of power by the NDP) as a stepping stone to elections, then a military coup does seem likely.

The military has already moved to "safeguard the country." Maybe they know something about what's going down on the NDP side.

i've given up trying to speculate. every 10 minutes something else is reported (unconfirmed) that cancels out what was previously reported.

newest via al arabiyya is that mubarak will announce new constitutional procedures and hand the game over to suleiman.

that is not enough.

We'll find out in about 15 minutes.

The crowds at both Cairo and Alexandria are jubilant; they think/hope a victory for the people is at hand. I'd hate to see how the next steps play out if Mubarak continues to maintain his regime but under a facade of reform.

If power isn't ceded by Mubarak and his regime, I fear that it's only a matter of time before there is a move to wrest it from them.

They have reached a point of no return.

Mubarak assumed presidential office at around the same time Reagan did. It's time for his government to be dissolved.

the live feed here:

Mubarak resignation rumours ? live updates | World news | guardian.co.uk

is one of the coolest things i've ever seen/heard. especially heard.

Mubarak isn't going anywhere, and he mentioned transferring power to Suleiman.

Jubilation has turned to anger. The shoes are off.

This is unfortunate.

This.

This man is such a jackass. I suppose he sees to die in this, so that this pure uprising of a people can be better understood - you know, in a Louis and Marie sort of way. "We need more looting, more fires, more dead. We can't have a peaceful revolution. I can't go away like this, I need to be a martyr. Quick find some Americans with heads!"

un-fucking-believable.

the shit is going to hit the fan. it's just a matter of when.

the scenario at the moment...there's specuation based on what the military said collectively earlier in the day about "resorting to extra-constitutional means" that there was an almost-coup. then there were a series of reports that indicated things appeared to be fluid because behind the curtain there were arguments still going on about how to play things.

it is not clear what, if anything, was transferred to suleiman.
it was not clear what, if anything, mubarak was talking about with the repeated references to "foreigners"---tho it did resemble in some ways american conservative-speak at those moments when they decided to declare themselves the "Real Americans"--but i digress.
the constitutional moves are interesting...mostly geared toward elections, opening them up...and annulling the constitutional basis for the state of emergency. again.

so a charade, really.

twitter shards indicate that the crowd is moving off tahrir toward national tv.

shit could hit the fan tonight.

i hope the people keep their cool. let the strike do it's work. this asshole will be brought to his knees once the canal gets shut down.

I do not oppose democracy.

sheesh. what do you suppose has emboldened him?

They have won the day. Now is the time to focus on rebuilding the nation, not further protests. There is nothing more be be gained.

---------- Post added at 09:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:40 PM ----------

You have to be kidding. Do you know the consequences of what you are hoping for?

I thought that you didn't believe people should compromise in the pursuit of their convictions.

They haven't really won anything but hot air.

Pride.

He conceded by indicating he was not going to run and would support open elections. That was not enough. Continued pressure from inside and outside the country caused Mubarak to draw a line in the sand. Now the only way he steps down before the elections is by force. The wrong tactics were employed if the only goal was to get him to voluntarily leave before elections in the fall.

---------- Post added at 09:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:47 PM ----------

The key is knowing what you are fighting for and knowing when you have won. Mubarak stepping down before the elections in the fall would only be symbolic. I am not big into symbolism. I prefer real change.

suleiman has just told several million people who weren't listening to go home.

mubarak talked about himself.

there's a "clear road-map" in the form of committee protocols that no-one outside the oligarchy has access to. the oligarchy is of course exactly the same people as were around power before. pawns from the left side of the board have been moved to the right side of the board.

this is what "stability" looks like....superficial theater.

democracy is something argued for by outsiders except when it's a legitimate demand and is something we are moving toward now but remains in the future, one that they will always find reasons to keep in abeyance as the people are never ready for democracy. why they'd have to think for themselves, and you can see from the united of states that lots of people prefer "simple" to thinking for themselves and that this democracy business is best if other people take care of the democray part for them because if that doesn't happen then.....oopsie.....simple goes out the window.

here's what i think mubarak's "stability" is going to result in:

Live blog Feb 10 - Egypt protests | Al Jazeera Blogs



another take:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Weird: I click on AlJaz to watch and the same millisecond John Mayer's "Waiting for the world to change" starts up on Pandora.

So you're saying that you've inserted yourself into the collective psyche of the Egyptian protesters, you know what they're fighting for and that they've won? But that they don't know this?

ace, waving your shoes at the president in the middle of his speech and chanting slogans telling him to leave isn't a victory dance. Moments before, they were singing.

roachboy, those are ominous statements. It will be interesting to see what unfolds tomorrow.

It's also interesting that you should observe how Mubarak talked about himself; just an hour before that, Obama used the Egyptian revolution as a source of inspiration for small-town Americans and job prospects. At least he maintains the position that America will support a transition to democracy. Unfortunately, I'm not sure how much anyone can support something that isn't going to take place.

All of this—it's rather unfortunate.

the administration is bent out of shape that mubarak didn't step down, apparently. they had been given to believe that was the next step and had started to try to get out in front of it in the usual way. the palace turmoil interpretation makes sense to me---i would imagine this wasn't decided upon until the last minute. the speech---which is a hallmark in the annals of vague ("some powers" were delegated to suleiman. which ones? all of them? who's in charge in egypt now? it's a temporary thing, according to the constitution....so is suleiman in charge until mubarak sez he isn't? what the fuck?)

tomorrow could be revolution.
the blunder has happened from the state.
people are mobilized in great number and are PISSED.....and i would expect that you'll see a LOT of people out tomorrow. what's interesting is that the protests keep growing, drawing in people who were not previously involved....but we'll see.

while trying to keep up with the many and varied updates, i get the impression this situation is still very fluid.

I hope that yesterday's 3 million becomes tomorrow's 10 million.

Mubarak believes he'll placate the protests by himself falling on the sword and giving power to another dictator.

I believe this will only further the resolve of the protesters to get full democracy votes.

this is stunning:

-guardianinternalstream- on USTREAM: .

So the military is in control at the moment, or VP, or no one?

it's not clear. from what i've been able to figure out, the supreme military council is in charge of the transition. there are reports that they'll dissolve parliament and fire the council that mubarak appointed. it's also possible that suleiman de facto resigned with his 30 second statement.

but the attention seems mostly on the fact of mubarak's resignation at the moment.

and speaking entirely personally, i'm still kind of intoxicated by the sound of revolution on that feed....

People can say what they are fighting for and people can fight for what they are fighting for. The words are not consistent with their actions.

No doubt you've been casually interviewing people in your local supermarket about the true demands of the Egyptian people.

Ever considered that perhaps you're mistaken about what they're fighting for? Or maybe you might not be in the best position to judge their strategy?

Its amazing...a glimmer of hope that Egypt could set a democratic example for the entire region and spearhead reform, reconstruction and a lasting peace with Israel. The door is wide open, but its not going to stay open for long.

Come on Egypt!!