Rekna

Here is an interesting article I just read and I want to see what you all think about this. Are the facts in this article wrong or has the misinformation right-wing media been incredibly successful at making stuff up and presenting it as truth?

http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/...s-they-go-vote

Tully Mars

Source please.

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Cimarron29414

Robert Gibbs, obviously.

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"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

Baraka_Guru

It's some guy named Dave Johnson. Here is the original blog post. It has links.
Eight False Things The Public "Knows" Prior To Election Day | OurFuture.org

Now, are these things false or not?

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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
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Rekna

Sorry I just added it. The source is Dave Johnson. Some of his points are subjective but most of them seem to be a listing of fact.

Baraka_Guru

Okay, now that we've dogpiled onto the original blog post, are these eight things false or not?

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Cimarron29414

No disrespect to Renka, but these talking points are so stupid, it doesn't even matter if they are false, or if Dan Johnson's version of them are true. If the boat is sinking, does it really matter which cannon blew which hole through your hull?

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Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

Rekna

It doesn't matter if they are true or not? That is laughable. It does matter if it is true. If the deficit is primarily due to the Bush and the Republicans then putting them back in power probably isn't a good idea. If health care is going to save us 200 billion dollars a year then repealing it isn't a good way to cut the deficit. Now can we please address if these points are true or not.

---------- Post added at 04:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:06 PM ----------

I'll start the analysis with a few of these:

This is a statement of fact and it should be easy to verify.

The first half of this is a statement of fact and should be easy to verify. The second half is a prediction and is subjective and we could argue about it all day and in the end we will never know what might have happened.

This is a statement of fact. The bailouts were passed by Bush and continued under Obama. Thus I'd say both of them should share in any blame or praise resulting from the bailouts.

This one is tough as it is an estimate not a fact. Also it doesn't take into account if the jobs created were worth the money.

Well this one is subjective I'd say there is a lot of logic in it. Employment is primarily driven by demand. I do not believe tax cuts would significantly increase that demand unless they are tax cuts directed at purchasing (ie tax rebates).


This is again a prediction and we won't know until the end of the year if we spent more or less on health care.
This is true, social security only recently went in the red and could easily get in the green again. Though I do think we need to consider incentives to keep people working longer.

Government money only takes money out of the economy if it is being spent outside the US, Let's say on a couple wars....

Jinn

7 posts in and we've already arrived at the point I intended to make - 'truth' isn't a primary concern in politics. Most people are solidly decided on what they believe, and rationalize it with points like Rekna addressed. Whether those things are truth is really only a secondary concern, since they are only rationalizations.

I'd much prefer we waged war with facts instead of preconceptions rationalized by 'facts'. I'm more concerned with the truth then who it hurts. Thanks for sharing this Rekna, but I think the people most influenced by these things they 'know' will receive this with dead ears.

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Tully Mars

Truth has become the first causality of politics since, well since the first vote was ever casts.

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I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

Baraka_Guru

"I'll be glad to reply to or dodge your questions, depending on what I think will help our election most."

—George H. W. Bush (spoken before a college audience during his failed 1980 presidential campaign)

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

roachboy

i dont see the current levels of disinformation as a function of any "natural" process.
it is a function of a deliberate politics. this is what the conservative media apparatus does. that's it's stock in trade----it produces and repeats and provides velocity to and for this kind of politicized infotainment.

which is in this case a direct extension of the strategy developed by the right to enable it to run against its own record.

what the right is concerned with, really, judging from pretty much everything, is holding power. it is an end in itself.

the bush people left the republicans in a pretty shitty position at the end of its debacle of a period in office. apparently the decision got taken---let's pretend we're not the republicans exactly. and let's assume that people's memory really is the length of the last news cycle. and let's assume that people believe what they want to from within a range of prefabricated options. so by extension that politics is a consumer matter.

these statements circulate. everyone knows someone who believes one or more of them. they're mostly the sort of horseshit that the talking heads at fox or am radio pundits use alot. everyone knows they're out there.

the problem with the article, i suppose, is that it talks in terms of belief. what that opens up is the possibility for any given conservative to point at any one of the statements and say "i don't believe that" from which presumably it'd be possible to say "therefore everything is false."

which is unfortunate, giving an out like that.


paul krugman addresses much the same problem in todays ny times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/25/op...rugman.html?hp

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it make you sick.

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Hektore

Well, I can address at least one of those truths. I recently received a letter from the SSA informing me (among other things) that I should start planning for my own retirement because by the time I'm eligible to collect social security they're only going to be able to pay 76 cents per dollar owed. Whether or not the SSA is actually going broke they certainly believe that they are.

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Cimarron29414

No, no, no Hektore - Dan Johnson and Rekna say it's solvent, so it's solvent. As a matter of fact and according to these seers, SS is so black, it's actually GREEN! Undoubtedly, this is because of all of the environmental jobs created by Social Security.

You go spend that retirement money on hookers and blow. You won't need it.

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Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

filtherton

Are you retiring more than 25 years from now, Hektore?

Rekna

You seem to be ignoring facts once again. Is this something that you do often? Does honesty have any meaning to you? Do you know what the ninth commandment is? If you want to talk about people towing the party line maybe you should look in the mirror.

I didn't say it was solvent I said this is the first year in the red and it doesn't necessarily mean the end of the world is coming. There are many small steps that we can take to make it solvent.

Cimarron29414

Forgive me if I don't take financial advice from the guy who believes the color code for balance sheets is red and green. So, you are correct - I am choosing to ignore the set of "facts" that Dan Johnson and you have laid out. I am also recommending that Hektore ignore those "facts" as well, and depend on private investment to secure a sound future for himself and his loved ones.

I do find the biblical reference curious, though.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

roachboy

fantastic, cimmaron. so not only are you willing to repeat bogus "anti-statist" bits of libertarian nonsense as if they were fact without bothering with actual data, but you're also resistant to the possibility that this bogus infotainment is problematic.

clearly the problem with dialogue comes from those of us who characterize conservatives as conservatives. clearly.

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a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

Hektore

No, I won't be eligible for retirement for more than 40 years.

Here is a copy of part of the letter I received:


The relevant portion:
I suppose I should apologize for my misremembering. It's actually worse than I thought.

__________________
The advantage law is the best law in rugby, because it lets you ignore all the others for the good of the game.

Tully Mars

My daughter received a letter like that, more newsletter then letter. The date on hers was 2037. So if she retired after 2037, 27 years from now she'll get 760 dollars for every 1000 dollars due.

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I used to drink to drown my sorrows, but the damned things have learned how to swim- Frida Kahlo

Vice President Starkizzer Fan Club

Rekna

Thanks for making my point. You and others don't care about facts all you care about is points and how you can score them. If you don't believe truth is important why do you even both posting here? Seriously people like you (on both the left and right) are horrible for this nation and will do nothing but harm it in the end.

Cimarron29414

Sorry, roach, not playing. Hektore, you believe whomever you want.

---------- Post added at 03:30 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:23 PM ----------

Yeah, Rekna, wouldn't it be just AWFUL if Hektore set aside a meagre 3.5% of his earnings in a private IRA and was a millionaire in 40 years? What a fucking prick I am for ruining this nation by giving that sort of advice!

Hookers and blow, Hektore. That Blackhawk helicoptor is just waiting to drop a metric shit-ton of cash on your lawn come retirement day.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

SecretMethod70

There's a very easy fix for social security: raise the cap on taxable income. There's no reason why someone earning $60,000/year should have 100% of their income taxed for social security while someone earning $1 million/year has only about 10% of their income taxed for social security.

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Le temps détruit tout

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Rekna

When did this thread turn into what Hektore should do? I'm referring to the data presented in the OP. All I want is people to determine what is the truth, something that people are way to reluctant to do these days. Should Hektore invest money? Of course, everyone should. Social security is not a substitute for a retirement plan and it was never meant to be.

roachboy

so the point of the article seems to have been made. which is not a great thing.

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a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

Cimarron29414

Rekna,

This might help. However, you might question the facts of the source.

Social Security history Frequently Asked Questions

question 4 is of interest.

Edit: Now that I re-read your point, I suppose you are technically correct - it was not a substitute for a retirement plan. Although, you still want to cling to the math that SS will exist in any form by the time Hektore ages another 40 years - something I am unwilling to believe as fact.

The original plan was to augment incomes for people who lived beyond the average expectancy. The problem today is that they have lowered that age, rather than raising it.

---------- Post added at 04:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:49 PM ----------

roach -

The article paints an incomplete picture of SS, and does so intentionally. If you view the timeline of the posts, I reacted negatively to Rekna saying SS has only not run in the "green" for one year - when in fact it has not run in the "black" eleven years (question 26 from SSA.gov above). So, I do find it amusing and reacted as such, especially since his entire thread is premised on the delivery of facts.

When, Hektore said, "wait, what about when I need it in 40 years?" - I made light of Rekna's obvious mistakes as well as Johnson's convenient change of the finish line to suit his needs. The fact is, the finish line is when Hektore and I need it, not when Johnson believes it has proven itself as a working system. The fact is the SS system is in unsustainable decline and can not deliver what it promises to the people that are paying into it (Hektore).

So, pointing out these facts as facts in regards to one of the eight points the writer makes does not mean that I am a destroyer of the nation, as Rekna says, or a giant dummy toting some party line, as you imply.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

Radd McCool

Poor form begets guff!

That being said: (Aug 5, 2010 Trustees Report Summary excerpt)
Social Security won't crash and burn till 2084, at current rates. Given that is a golden cow, or whatever the phrase, you can safely assume it'll be shored up or one-upped at some point in the next seventy-four years.

Hektore

What I was trying to do was bring up important information about one of Mr. Johnson's stated facts. The phrase he uses when describing social security is "completely sound for the next 25 years". I have a bit of a problem with that, as his definition of 'completely sound' and my definition must be very different. Operating at a deficit so great as to burn through a multi-trillion dollar trust fun in 27 years is not something I would consider 'completely sound' but, apparently, as long as all the benefits are getting paid, then Mr. Johnson doesn't see any problems. It doesn't seem to concern him that a mere two years after his deadline social security is expected to have no savings and be unable to pay benefits that will be in excess of the revenues collected. The tight timing of his forecast forces me to be believe that this was done deliberately and Mr. Johnson is playing games with 'truth'. While it doesn't impact on the truth value of his other 7 points, he certainly isn't doing anything to help his credibility.

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The advantage law is the best law in rugby, because it lets you ignore all the others for the good of the game.

roachboy

so what you're saying here is that maybe one of the conservative talking points that have substituted for information is less completely horseshit than the others.

seems alot of work if that's all you're after.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

Cimarron29414

BTW, Hektore: If I'm elected President, I can guarantee you will not receive one penny from the federal government in retirement funds in 40 years.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

Hektore

err...yes, that's the short point.

The longer point, which isn't spelled out is that perhaps it isn't helpful to call someone a liar while spouting half-truths of your own. Mr. Johnson could be completely accurate in the rest of his evaluation but he had the opportunity to enlighten the crowd honestly about the state of social security and instead stuck his fingers in his ears and blew some figurative raspberries at the people who think that there are problems that ought to be addressed.

Damaging his own credibility isn't very helpful to the other points. Take the stimulus; maybe it helped, maybe it didn't, I don't know. I do know there is enough (mis)information floating around on both sides of the issue (everything from Obama's part in the stimulus makes him the King Savior of the all World to that useless tripe faux news spouts about the bill itself consuming babies for breakfast) that you can find a source to credit to support any position you'd like. If I think he's more interested in towing a partly line with half-truths, because it looks like that's what he's doing with something I do know a bit about, it makes me less inclined to take him seriously about the stimulus.

But hey, the point of the thread and the OP was to evaluate all the claims, feel free to show me how much the stimulus helped, I'm honestly very interested to know.

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The advantage law is the best law in rugby, because it lets you ignore all the others for the good of the game.

Radd McCool

Ha, definitely. It reads like it's framed to counter their framing, rather than for accuracy. Framing, as far as these kinds of techniques go, is like some kind of sorcery when you're using it to pound existing beliefs. He's not really espousing a commonly held notion, though, when not-so-subtly framing for [Huge thing; can't go broke]

roachboy

the information in 6 of the 7 point seems ok intuitively.
you think that the other point is perhaps overstated.
so the problem is some imaginary character defect in the author.

how quaint.

conservative argumentation. it makes me laugh.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

Cimarron29414

Radd McCool - To counter whose framing? Dave Johnson wrote every word of that article.

rb - Article title is "8 false things..." You seem to concede that 25% of the items he listed aren't necessarily false...in a list of eight. The author couldn't be precise on eight things in an article rooted in the premise of bringing the truth? I'll brush off the jabs since your argument has been no better.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

roachboy

cimmaron, it's an impressionistic editorial piece taken from a blog.
if we're going to talk about a text, keeping the genre straight is kinda important. unless we want to encourage meaningless critiques.
which a prerogative, i suppose. i'd enjoy it in the way i like putting tacks into my hand.

the question isn't whether the counters are true, really: it's more whether the assessment is accurate of the conservative misinformation points that have crept out of the space of conservative misinformation and are confused with "facts"---i've heard people say most of these things. have you?

that seems to me about as far as one can go with this.

if you want to have a social security conversation, we could do it, but it'd require actual data rather than just the sort of infotainment that one could get sitting around in a publick house except without the beverages. but what's the point of sitting around a publick house if there aren't beverages to be had?

by which i mean that there is maybe an interesting other discussion about this to be had, because basic data and basic interpretations diverge quite considerably about social security and its sustainability. these divergences typically come down to restatements of premises. that's why this sort of "discussion" here is tedious--there's no pressure to demonstrate the premises so no pressure to expose why you interpret the information you have as you do---because there's no information.

it's like that, in my humble opinion.

__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle
spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear

it make you sick.

-kamau brathwaite

Radd McCool

Conservative framing. Specifically "going broke" and PONZI scheme. The definition of frame I've got is basically 'Cognitive Frame: A psychological device which offers perspective and manipulates salience to influence subsequent judgment.'

Hektore

so...that I am failed to be convinced of the truth of something, about which I am admittedly ignorant, solely on the word of someone who was not completely honest with me about social security, something I am less ignorant of, is quaint. And makes my statement conservative, which in turn makes it laughable.

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The advantage law is the best law in rugby, because it lets you ignore all the others for the good of the game.

Cimarron29414

How is "Ponzi scheme" a conservative framing? It's named after Charles Ponzi, the guy who took investors' money and used it to pay off previous investors. Will not social security use the money of current investors to pay off previous investors? Yes. Did SS know that the amount being taken from investors was not adequate based on their expected retirement draw to properly finance the plan - and that they would have to use other people's money to make good on their promise? Yes. Does the perpetrator of the plan benefit from its creation. Yes. If we can use cognitive framing of corporate personhood on one argument it's perfectly fair to have government personhood to explain the motivation (acquiring power) in creating entitlement programs.

I see you are uncomfortable that the venerated entitlement program parallels a popular fraud, but it is the very definition, not a cognitive framing.

__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead.

"Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly."

Baraka_Guru

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

dogzilla

By that very quote, Social Security is a Ponzi scheme. The Social Security administration itself admits the trust fund runs out around 2038 and then they can't pay the promised benefits. 2038 is a long way from forever.

Sure, the government can fix this by either confiscating more taxpayer money or reducing payouts, but right now it fits the model of a Ponzi scheme.