09-26-2009, 09:23 AM | #1 (permalink) |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Iran as a Nuclear Threat Revisited
I'm sure everyone has seen the announcement by President Obama that Iran has a secret nuclear-enriching facility. Here's the video:
The problem, of course, is that there is evidence that this facility was disclosed some time ago, and Iran’s nuclear chief has already said in no uncertain terms that IAEA would be allowed to visit the facility. In other words, to quote Middle East policy analyst Gareth Porter, "This is very far from a smoking gun, certainly with regard to Iranian intentions as far as nuclear weapons are concerned and also to the capablity of manufacturing a nuclear weapon." I find myself thinking back to 2002 and 2003, as unsubstantiated information was being spoon fed from the government to the corporate media, which was then sold to the people as hard facts. Donald Rumsfeld outright said, "We know where the WMDs are" on March 30, 2003. He was lying through his shit-eating grin. It's the same thing now, apparently. We get wild, seemingly conclusive claims regarding a threat with nonspecific and unverified evidence. There's no way in hell we're doing this again, right? There's no way the American public is that stupid, that we'd make the exact same mistake twice in one decade? We still have soldiers dying in Iraq, for christ's sake. |
09-26-2009, 09:42 AM | #2 (permalink) |
let me be clear
Location: Waddy Peytona
|
I thought there was already a Bush 3rd term thread? It's not like the current administration would let a good crisis go to waste... at least according to Rahm Emanuel.
__________________
"It rubs the lotion on Buffy, Jodi and Mr. French's skin" - Uncle Bill from Buffalo |
09-26-2009, 10:33 PM | #3 (permalink) |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Could the Iranian government be doing this to force the moronic US chest beaters to impose economic sanctions in order to force the protestors to give up because they're all starving? Sanctions hurt the middle class, and the middle class in Iran is most likely to fund a pro-Democratic movement in order to get free trade going.
Last edited by Willravel; 09-26-2009 at 10:36 PM.. |
09-27-2009, 09:46 AM | #4 (permalink) | |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Update: You may remember Scott Ritter, the weapons inspector that plainly said before the Iraq war that there was no evidence that Iraq possessed significant weapons of mass destruction. He just wrote an article about this new Iran situation and it's worth reading (I've bolded the most important parts for the tl:dr folks):
Quote:
|
|
09-27-2009, 11:34 AM | #5 (permalink) | |
Degenerate
Location: San Marvelous
|
Quote:
Pete, get up off your knees; your prayers haven't worked:
__________________
Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam. |
|
09-27-2009, 03:51 PM | #6 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Indiana
|
Quote:
__________________
It's time for the president to hand over his nobel peace prize. |
|
09-28-2009, 10:39 AM | #7 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Perhaps Iranian officials can revisit this comment to help calm the building hostilities:
Quote:
I interpret the statement as a direct and literal threat.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
|
09-28-2009, 11:39 AM | #8 (permalink) |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
They're a tribal-based society, so of course there's going to be chest-beating in response to a passive threat from the Obama administration, with Brown and Sarkozy in tow. If they didn't chest-beat it would be out of the ordinary and might signal something to be more concerned about.
Ace, if you get the time, please give this a read: It's the Tribes, Stupid (not calling you stupid, it's the name of the article) It's a basic introduction to tribalism in the modern world especially in Islamic countries. |
09-28-2009, 11:44 AM | #9 (permalink) | |
Location: Washington DC
|
Quote:
OR....as will noted, it is public posturing in light of the fact that, for the first time in eight years, they are being forced to the table and facing sanctions by their allies as well as their adversaries because of the recently enhanced diplomatic efforts. Face-saving at its best....which is required of all good Ayatollahs "we could have and would have made our ""enemies blind"..but after negotiations (and the first serious threat of sanctions), we wont"A direct and literal threat? Relax and let diplomacy take its course for once. Something new and different!
__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 09-28-2009 at 11:51 AM.. |
|
09-28-2009, 12:07 PM | #10 (permalink) | |||||
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
Quote:
This is also interesting: Quote:
Here is another: Quote:
---------- Post added at 08:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:56 PM ---------- Quote:
I hope Obama's approach works. I would prefer not to have this situation escalate. Obama has been reaching out to the world and has denounced Bush's approach and some past actions by the US. At some point when should we expect a positive response? An honest response? I am not making a political statement or a judgment statement on Obama, I accept him as our commander-in-chief, and I accept that American's want a different approach compare to Bush on these matters. I am simply sharing my view, nothing more, nothing less - in the big picture my view has no importance. So there is not much need for anyone to try to make me change it - at this point my view is locked on this until I see something positive from Iran.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
|||||
09-28-2009, 12:35 PM | #11 (permalink) | ||
Location: Washington DC
|
Quote:
Quote:
__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire |
||
09-28-2009, 01:22 PM | #12 (permalink) | |||
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Quote:
1) become the enemy of the perceived top-dog 2) become top-dog. Neither of these are favorable outcomes, so the obvious answer is to butt out for the time being. Attacking them sets us on a course to one of two options, neither of which make any sense for us. In this case, the case of nuclear weapons, we have to let the UN do their jobs. I know it seems impotent, but the fact is that the inspectors are damn good at their jobs. Iran has agreed to allow inspectors to see this new facility, so we're not in a position where we need to be considering punitive or military action. Quote:
As far as your interpretation of their chest-beating response as a threat, look at it within the context of the tribe: they HAVE to respond that way otherwise they'll be perceived as weak. It's not an active threat as much as it is either a conditioned response or a PR move. Do you think Iran really wants to get into a nuclear war with Israel or the US? Of course not because they'd lose even if they managed somehow to win. They're tribal, not stupid. Nuclear power is about independence, which is very important to them. If they are developing nuclear weapons (and honestly there's still no evidence that they are), it wouldn't be to use them, it would be to demonstrate strength and to enter the MAD alliance of unattackable states. I'm much more worried about Pakistan and their nuclear weapons than I would be about a nuclear Iran... but there's still no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. That has to be central to the discussion. Quote:
I'm pretty sure President Obama is not open to taking an Iranian wife for his harem, so the obvious outcomes to this are either annihilating Iran, losing to Iran, or backing the hell down and letting the professionals do their job. President Obama's speech was a step in the wrong direction, and was an obvious play to look strong on "terror" or whatever. |
|||
09-28-2009, 03:11 PM | #13 (permalink) | |||||||
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
---------- Post added at 11:11 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 PM ---------- Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
It is interesting, I was having a discussion with a neighbor last night and he said the reason I have a problem with Obama is because he is an "intellectual" or a person who openly weighs, talks and is open to both sides of an issue without firm conviction based on they way they are trained to think. We went through examples of why I find Obama so frustrating to listen too. He said, and I agree, my mind is wired different. I need to just stand back and observe for awhile. I think I will simply read what others have to say on this topic.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
|||||||
09-28-2009, 03:44 PM | #14 (permalink) | ||
Location: Washington DC
|
Quote:
It was not so good that the Bush invasion/occupation of Iraq strengthened Iran's geo-political influence in the region by replacing a dictator whose wings were clipped and posed no external threat with ruling parliament parties that have long-standing ties to Iran as well as a militant Shia party leader (al sadr) with growing popularity among the younger populace. Quote:
__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 09-28-2009 at 03:49 PM.. |
||
09-28-2009, 04:11 PM | #15 (permalink) | ||||
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Quote:
Europe is easily matched with the US economically and militarily, and soon the same will be true of China. When we're looking at three equal powers, top dog has to be left behind so that we can move on to what's next: global democracy. I'm sure it seems that way, but the inspector program has actually been a sweeping success. The author of the article I cited in the OP was a weapons inspector and he obviously has insight that our own intelligence community lacks. Quote:
Quote:
Anyway, the problem with the perpetual boogeyman is that if you make them look dangerous enough, the military/intelligence community is going to want to do something about it because that's their job. "If this is such a threat, let us take care of it!" President Obama opening up the gates on Iran like this is really dangerous because eventually people get scared enough that they want to take action. It's nearly impossible to keep the balance between fear and lethargy with people that like proactive options. It may work with American Idol watching Americans, but not the Pentagon. Quote:
|
||||
09-29-2009, 07:28 AM | #16 (permalink) | |||||||
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
---------- Post added at 03:28 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:20 PM ---------- Afghanistan is not a place to wage war. Obama will soon come to understand that sending more and more troops into that territory is wasteful. A war in Afghanistan can not be won, Bush understood that. Obama saying Afghanistan was the "right" war was political campaign rhetoric and now he is trapped and has to figure a way out without looking like he politicized the war.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." Last edited by aceventura3; 09-29-2009 at 07:22 AM.. |
|||||||
09-29-2009, 12:36 PM | #17 (permalink) | |||||
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Are you referring to the native populations? If so, they're basically gone now. Otherwise, we were only under a monarchy for a short time and it's been 100% republic since then. We're not tribal at all, we do not have a tribal society in any way, shape or form.
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Comon, think bigger. There's no way in hell population restrictions will ever work which means eventually, even if we go through several collapses, we will reach a peak production of resources on the planet and will have to expand. Do you really think petty disputes between countries on earth will matter when we've colonized the solar system? Of course not. Eventually the planet will likely operate the way Europe does now. They will remain sovereign, but collectively will have governmental systems in place to deal with global or even multi-global issues. On these issues, there will need to be a consensus in order to get something done, and the odds are this will be done democratically. Admittedly, this is getting really far off the track of the thread topic. If you want to continue this line, I'd be glad to make a thread. Quote:
Quote:
|
|||||
09-30-2009, 06:41 AM | #18 (permalink) |
Still Free
Location: comfortably perched at the top of the bell curve!
|
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA !!!!.......snort........HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA....................snort......................HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead. "Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly." |
09-30-2009, 08:20 AM | #20 (permalink) |
Location: Washington DC
|
Given that many conservatives/libertairians here are of the firm belief that Obama's national security policies are a "Bush third term" and others think he is a "weak on security" liberal as opposed to the previous "chicken hawks"...perhaps he is doing something right.
__________________
"The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire |
09-30-2009, 08:51 AM | #21 (permalink) | |
Still Free
Location: comfortably perched at the top of the bell curve!
|
Quote:
__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead. "Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly." |
|
09-30-2009, 09:46 AM | #22 (permalink) |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
I'm sure he seems like an extremists from the far, far right, but you're looking at his positions way too relatively.
If I were president, the first day in office I would have ordered my commanders to start evacuating troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and that they need to be completely finished in no more than 3 months. I would have put my people to work drafting single-payer healthcare instantly and would want it in the House within maybe a week. And I'd decimate anyone that stood in the way of that legislation. I'd have appointed an independent investigator with unprecedented access to find out everyone that was involved with stolen elections, the lies leading up to the war, rendition, torture, eavesdropping, and any other criminal activity in the previous administration. Then I'd appoint the most blood-thirsty prosecutor in history to go after anyone implicated. I'd undo the shitty deregulation started during the Reagan administration so that we have better control over the ignorant gamblers in the banking and investment markets. I'd stop the war on terror completely and set a new agenda to bring economic stability to countries like Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan so that their middle class can be a stronger force for peace and stability. I'd push the FCC to put the fairness doctrine back in place. Then on day 2, I'd get to work on reforming and growing important social programs as well as ending the failed wars on drugs and crime. Do you see how incredibly different this is than what President Obama is doing? I'd have people at Fox News hanging themselves within 24 hours of being sworn in and I'd be assassinated probably in my first week. Because I'm a progressive. |
09-30-2009, 12:18 PM | #23 (permalink) | |||||||
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
---------- Post added at 08:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:00 PM ---------- Quote:
---------- Post added at 08:18 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:12 PM ---------- Quote:
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." Last edited by aceventura3; 09-30-2009 at 12:22 PM.. |
|||||||
09-30-2009, 12:24 PM | #24 (permalink) |
Junkie
Location: Ohio
|
[
He currently has a vested interest in being correct. Given that interest I have to take what he says and put into perspective. He may be correct, but he could be wrong - it would be embarrassing if he is proved to be wrong. We would need multiple independent sources arriving at the same conclusion to make me conclude "success". He doesn't have a vested interest in being correct. His job is to report the facts. The facts in Iraq were no wmd's. The facts in iran are no wmd's. ---------- Post added at 04:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:23 PM ---------- [/COLOR] The above is an example of leadership. It doesn't matter if I agree or not, if you ran for President, won, and then acted in accordance with what you ran on, I would still make my case but I would defer to your leadership. At the end of the day, on many issues we face I think we need to be "all in" or "out".[/QUOTE] Except that in reality you can't be all in or all out. You gotta have room for compromise. This is what Bush failed to realise and why we are in the mess we are in now.
__________________
"Your life is Yours alone...Rise up and live it" |
09-30-2009, 01:22 PM | #25 (permalink) | |||||
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
|
Quote:
This side prophesy I posted is more about the eventual goal of democracy for free and educated people. It's peppered with my optimism (and maybe colored by too much Star Trek), but I'll meet you in maybe a 1000 years and we can see how I did. Quote:
Obama sits squarely between us in his actions, but I think you're right that he's a bit more like me in his ideologies. We'll likely not know until he's out of office and making a real difference, like Carter or Clinton. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
|
|||||
09-30-2009, 01:30 PM | #26 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
Human nature is a factor when weighing the credibility of a report. I don't think you are suggesting that this person is above being corrupt or corrupted either by ego or an outside source. So, I agree that his job is to report the facts, I also agree that he may have performed his job honestly and to the best of his ability. Where we differ, I think, is that I think it is possible that he is wrong. I also think, given human nature, he would have to proactively overcome the inertia of risking his reputation on being later proved wrong. It takes a little extra to state you are correct and then later have to state that you were wrong, that you were fooled, deceived, failed, not capable, or whatever the reason. I am not suggesting that he would not or could not do it, all I want is more proof - given the circumstances and the potential consequences.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
|
09-30-2009, 01:43 PM | #28 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
What is his Iranian policy? Is his plan to have low/mid level diplomatic talks? What is he going to take to those talks; embargo, UN sanctions, inspectors, bombing the sites, war - what? Is he going to pick up the phone and talk directly to Iranian leaders? Is he going to have a show of military strength by sending the Navy to the Iranian coast? Is he going to defer to Isreal? France? Russia? China? Is he going to ban Iranian athletes from the 2016 Olympics? Is he going to wait for the next President to handle it? I would like to know. But I suspect I will be left waiting for a while.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
|
09-30-2009, 02:03 PM | #29 (permalink) | |
Crazy, indeed
Location: the ether
|
Quote:
So are you saying that pointing out Obama's radical policies after implying he is a radical is akin to predicting the future? |
|
09-30-2009, 02:37 PM | #30 (permalink) | |
Junkie
Location: Ohio
|
Quote:
__________________
"Your life is Yours alone...Rise up and live it" |
|
10-01-2009, 07:02 AM | #31 (permalink) | |
Still Free
Location: comfortably perched at the top of the bell curve!
|
Quote:
__________________
Gives a man a halo, does mead. "Here lies The_Jazz: Killed by an ambitious, sparkly, pink butterfly." |
|
10-01-2009, 07:38 AM | #32 (permalink) | ||
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
---------- Post added at 03:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:29 PM ---------- Just read what I wrote. I prefer additional support given the circumstances and the potential consequences. Quote:
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
||
10-01-2009, 08:56 AM | #33 (permalink) |
Junkie
Location: Detroit, MI
|
I have a hunch that one of the very main reasons Barack Obama was elected was to deal with Iran. He's going to charm the Iranians into a stupor like he charmed the Americans, Europeans, South Americans, Egyptians, Haitians and just about everyone else. After Obama gets through with his Campaign of Charm & Nuance the Iranians won't know what hit them. Not only will the mullahs stop weaponizing plutonium they'll be overjoyed about it. They will start growing bananas and cherries in the desert. Obama will play the hyper-empath, compassionate emergency counselor sent in to deal with the psychotic problem child, like Richard Gere in Primal Fear. He'll let the mullahs have their say: they will get to yell at the United States. Stern words at first...giving way to smiles then supplication...everything very diplomatic and respectful. Solemn amends for meddling in the past on one side, half-promises to cut off ties with Hamas et al. In doing so Obama will show the world that he is fair enough and magnanimous enough to allow them their say, and a few months later the Iranians will find themselves without a single working nuclear reactor of their own.
|
10-01-2009, 12:50 PM | #37 (permalink) |
Super Moderator
Location: essex ma
|
Iran agrees to open up uranium enrichment plant to inspection | World news | The Guardian
i wasn't going to bother with this thread as will seems to have made the arguments that i would have up to this point. but gee, ain't it strange how actual engagement seems to have produced more in a day than the bush-cheney approach did in 8 years? all this with the unfortunate reality of ahmadinejad still being somehow in office. but to be coherent about iran, you'd have to acknowledge the persistent gap between the public face of the internal regime and it's diplomatic actions. they're quite different one from the other. one of the iranian objectives behind the scenes for some time has been to get direct talks with the united states. that this is a problem for their internally-directed politics is self-evident if you know anything about how the revolution turned out and why it happened in the first place.
__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite |
10-01-2009, 12:50 PM | #38 (permalink) |
Super Moderator
Location: essex ma
|
Iran agrees to open up uranium enrichment plant to inspection | World news | The Guardian
i wasn't going to bother with this thread as will seems to have made the arguments that i would have up to this point. but gee, ain't it strange how actual engagement seems to have produced more in a day than the bush-cheney approach did in 8 years? all this with the unfortunate reality of ahmadinejad still being somehow in office. but to be coherent about iran, you'd have to acknowledge the persistent gap between the public face of the internal regime and it's diplomatic actions. they're quite different one from the other. one of the iranian objectives behind the scenes for some time has been to get direct talks with the united states. that this is a problem for their internally-directed politics is self-evident if you know anything about how the revolution turned out and why it happened in the first place.
__________________
a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite |
10-01-2009, 01:21 PM | #39 (permalink) | ||
Junkie
Location: Ventura County
|
Quote:
Quote:
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." |
||
08-14-2010, 07:59 AM | #40 (permalink) | |
warrior bodhisattva
Super Moderator
Location: East-central Canada
|
Quote:
Here we have the Russians completing a decades-long nuclear power project by fueling a nuclear plant to bring it online in Iran. Critics of Iran have implied that their civilian nuclear program is a cover for their intention to build nuclear arms. What do you make of this? Will this complicate issues or will it make it easier for the international community to come up with more valid reasons to inspect and regulate Iran's civilian program? Will this complicate issues further between Russia and the U.S. with regard to nuclear technology?
__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot |
|
Tags |
iran, nuclear, revisited, threat |
|
|