Hugo Chavez Opens the Door to Long-Term Rule - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

Baraka_Guru · 02-16-2009, 08:06 AM

Quote:

"Hugo Chávez wins referendum allowing indefinite re-election"
Electoral authorities say 54% of Venezuelan voters backed amendment abolishing term limits for elected officials

Rory Carroll in Caracas
guardian.co.uk, Monday 16 February 2009 08.04 GMT

Venezuelans yesterday voted to abolish term limits for elected officials, boosting Hugo Chávez's ambition to rule the country for decades.

Electoral authorities said 54% of voters in the referendum backed a constitutional amendment allowing indefinite re-election, with 46% rejecting it – a margin of almost 1 million voters.

An exultant Chávez appeared on the balcony of the presidential palace in Caracas to address cheering supporters after the result was announced. "It is a clear victory for the people," he said. "It is a clear victory for the revolution."

The result will boost his effort to transform the Opec country into a socialist state and burnish his leadership of Latin America's "pink tide" of leftwing governments.

The president's mentor and ally Fidel Castro sent congratulations from his sickbed in Cuba.

The US made no immediate comment, but the Obama administration will be dismayed at the prospect of an emboldened foe in Caracas.

Chávez, a 54-year-old former tank commander, has been in power for a decade and plans to run for election again when his term ends in 2013. He has spoken of ruling beyond 2030.

However, plunging oil revenues are expected to hit the Venezuelan economy and the petro-fuelled Chavez diplomacy soon.

Some analysts predict stagflation and devaluation of the bolivar currency – the kind of grim cycle that undid previous Venezuelan leaders – and there was speculation that Chávez had rushed through the referendum before the crisis hit.

The unexpectedly wide margin of victory prompted rapturous celebrations among "chavistas", who credit their charismatic leader for poverty-alleviating social programmes, notably free health care and discounted food.

"We did it, we won – this is a great night," Freddy Ramirez, a 48-year-old security guard, said.

Fireworks lit up the night sky and cars filled with flag-waving supporters drove around the capital.

However, not everybody celebrated. "Chavez has screwed this country enough already," Ricardo Torres, a 56-year-old courier, said.

He blamed the president for crumbling infrastructure and high crime and inflation.

Voters had narrowly rejected a referendum to abolish presidential term limits in December 2007.

Chávez learned lessons from that defeat, this time widening the terms of the referendum to allow mayors and governors to run indefinitely, giving them an incentive to mobilise support.

The government's "red machine" waged a formidable campaign. Posters urging a "yes" vote saturated the country, state TV networks cheered for the "si" and civil servants were sent out to canvass.

A flyer gave 10 reasons for voting yes. Number one said: "Chávez loves us and love is repaid with love", and the second stated: "Chávez is incapable of doing us harm".

The opposition, a fragmented coalition of small political parties and university students, accepted defeat but complained that the government had hijacked state resources and hobbled the "no" campaign.

"There was an abuse of power," David Smolanksy, a student leader, said.

Analysts said Venezuela's vote could embolden leaders in countries such as Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador to seek indefinite re-election, a return of the "big man" syndrome of charismatic autocrats that marked much of the region's 20th-century history.

"Many who are worried about unlimited executive power will be dispirited by the results. The record of such indefinite re-election in the region has been very unhappy," Michael Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue thinktank, said.

At a news conference on Saturday, Chávez sought to allay such concerns and said staying in office for more than a decade was not unusual. He cited examples including the US president Franklin Roosevelt.

The outcome of this recent referendum effectively permits Chavez to continue to rule in Venezuela indefinitely. Mind you, in Canada, a prime minister can do the same thing so long as his or her party gets re-elected. Quite a difference here, especially in terms of balance of power.

I think this will indeed embolden other South American leaders. I think this is an enabler of South American socialism. I think the U.S. doesn't like this one bit, but we have yet to see a response.

Is this an issue of a balance of political power on a level of the Americas (i.e. North vs. South)? Or is this limited to Venezuela? Will Chavez's power weaken, or will he increase it?

What do you make of it?
What position do you hope the Obama administration takes?
What do you think Chavez will do with Venezuela after recent declines in prosperity?
How will this affect South American politics and trade?
What good can come out of this? What harm?

aceventura3 · 02-16-2009, 08:20 AM

I predict that he will be overthrown. There is a similar pattern being followed here, his only hope is for the price of oil to go back up into the triple digits.

dippin · 02-16-2009, 09:24 AM

This is a case where image overtakes substance on both sides.

Chavez is a mildly ineffective reformer who uses oil revenues to advance social programs. He is not abolishing private property, and the things that the state has purchased, it has done so at market prices. Inequality is falling faster in Brazil with Lula and Chile with Bachelet.

So his popularity there is matched by his unpopularity here because of his discourse. Mildly ineffective reformers are generally not very popular, but mildly ineffective reformers who do largely symbolic acts of "resistance" to US pressure can become very popular. So he yells, and screams, and does photo-ops with Castro, becoming a useful bogeyman for the American right, and a "symbol" of resistance for the South American left.

Socialist? No, not at all.

Now, as far as the referendum, whatever you think of him, there are fewer ways to alter election rules than through a referendum. And even then he can only stay in power "indefinitely" if he keeps winning elections.

Now, what should the American administration do? Nothing. As long as the US intervenes in Latin America, mildly ineffective reformers without much of a record will become very popular by riding anti-US resentment.

inBOIL · 02-16-2009, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dippin

Now, what should the American administration do? Nothing. As long as the US intervenes in Latin America, mildly ineffective reformers without much of a record will become very popular by riding anti-US resentment.

QFT. The quieter we are about Chavez, the more attention his economic failures will get from the Venezuelan people.

aceventura3 · 02-17-2009, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dippin

This is a case where image overtakes substance on both sides.

Now, what should the American administration do? Nothing. As long as the US intervenes in Latin America, mildly ineffective reformers without much of a record will become very popular by riding anti-US resentment.

There is also the history, which generally has had little to do with the US.

Quote:

In the early 1900s, the conflict-ridden nation finally began to get on its economic feet with the discovery of oil, and by the 20s Venezuela was beginning to reap the benefits. Unfortunately, most of the wealth remained with the ruling class, and the plague of dictators continued until 1947 when Romulo Betancourt led a popular revolt and rewrote the constitution. The first president-elect in Venezuela's history took office the same year, the novelist Romulo Gallegos. Unfortunately, he was ousted by another dictator and the country did not experience a non-violent presidential succession until 1963. For the next 25 years, things went comparatively well. An oil boom in the mid-1970s saw enormous wealth pour into the country, though, as always, the vast lower class benefited little. Oil prices dropped in the late 80s and once again the country was thrown into crisis. Riots swept through Caracas and were violently repressed, and two coup attempts took place in 1992. Right now, the nation's stability and future are uncertain.

Venezuela - History & Culture

Chavez is following a similar pattern of past leaders. Unfortunately he no longer has the evil George Bush to blame his problems on and he does not have high oil prices. If he is truly in support of the average person in his country, he has a chance. He also has a chance if he can do what Castro as done to maintain power.

Charlatan · 02-17-2009, 04:03 PM

Chavez has not just been voted in "forever". He still has to submit to elections. And assuming they are free elections, he can be voted out of office just as the Canadian PM, who has the same ability to stay in power indefinitely, can.

With the US history of intervention in Venezuela, including the recently attempted coup on Chavez, the US would be best to just let this play out. The US should focus on breaking its need of foreign oil...

roachboy · 02-17-2009, 04:11 PM

no ace, chavez is not following the pattern of past leaders.
if you're interested, you should check out the film "the revolution will not be televised" for a very interesting account of venezuelan politics, chavez and the last american-backed coup attempt. it was made by an irish television crew that was given a remarkable degree of access to chavez and which happened to be doing their project when the coup attempt happened. it's particularly good on the role conservative television played in mobilizing conservatives around the coup attempt. you should watch it.

Baraka_Guru · 02-17-2009, 04:16 PM

Quote:

US seeks 'positive relationship' with Venezuela
3 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States will pursue a "positive relationship" with Venezuela after a referendum lifted term limits for President Hugo Chavez and all politicians, a US official said Tuesday.

"We will continue to seek to maintain a positive relationship with Venezuela," said US State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid.

"Although there were some troubling reports of intimidation of opponents, for the most part, this was a process that was fully consistent with democratic practice."

Venezuelans on Sunday voted nearly 55 percent in favor of constitutional reform sought by Chavez, a staunch Washington critic, to run for unlimited reelection, in his bid to consolidate his brand of socialism critics compare to Cuba's communism.

Chavez has already signaled he intends to run for a third term in 2012.

Asked about Chavez's bid for unlimited rule, Duguid said he did not have "an opinion on the democratic practices of Venezuelan. In the United States, we have term limits, but that's our practice."

Duguid reiterated that the referendum "was a matter for the Venezuelan people."

But he said that the United States looks "for governments who have achieved a positive democratic result to use that in a positive manner."

US-Venezuelan relations have been steadily deteriorating since Chavez first took office in 1999. In September, they took a turn for the worse after Venezuela expelled the US ambassador and the United States responded in kind.

AFP: US seeks 'positive relationship' with Venezuela

So here it is--the U.S. response so far. This is a different tone than what I would have expected from the Bush administration.

Do you think we'll see a turnaround in relations between the two?

aceventura3 · 02-18-2009, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

no ace, chavez is not following the pattern of past leaders.

Are we splitting hairs here? Is this an issue of semantics? What I see is: oil, wealth distribution, use of force to gain power or mass appeal, use of a populist message to appeal to the masses, use of force or political power to minimize dissent, use of strategy to retain power, and "outside" groups not in power wanting power biding their time. Sure, I agree that past leaders have done more or less of each - but I think there is a definite pattern and that the patter is currently in play.

roachboy · 02-18-2009, 01:25 PM

so what you're saying, ace, is that huge chavez is in power.
i wasn't aware that was at issue in this thread.

aceventura3 · 02-19-2009, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

so what you're saying, ace, is that huge chavez is in power.
i wasn't aware that was at issue in this thread.

and that I predict he is going to be overthrown following a similar pattern of past leaders in his country. Gee. How do you get a post that was so simple so convoluted? Is this a natural skill you have or do you have to work on it?

roachboy · 02-19-2009, 09:17 AM

you aren't saying anything, ace.
and your prognostication about chavez is based on nothing.

aceventura3 · 02-19-2009, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

you aren't saying anything, ace.
and your prognostication about chavez is based on nothing.

Getting testy?

I gave information on what my view was based on. If you disagree thats fair, but why play games? Why try to antagonize? Do you really want to take this to the gutter? What is your goal with this?

roachboy · 02-19-2009, 01:20 PM

o for god's sake, ace, do some research.

i'll make it easy for you

In the Shadow of the Liberator: Hugo Chávez and the Transformation of Venezuela

agree or not with the overall interpretation in this--or any other--actual research on the question, and you'll see that your basic claims are based, as i said before, on nothing.
dippin's right in that chavez has not done all he claimed he set out to do, but the fact is that the nature of the movement that he represents is not bidness as usual, the modality of doing politics is not bidness as usual, etc...your "interpretation" isn't even consistent with that of the right opposition in venezuela--and typically, you're a connect-the-dots kinda guy--which has the advantage of at least coming from *somewhere*...

aceventura3 · 02-20-2009, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roachboy

o for god's sake, ace, do some research.

I prefer to sleep at a Holiday Inn.

Quote:

i'll make it easy for you

Is it possible for you to "engage" without making it personal? You pretend to show concern about me being taken seriously. I can do amateur psychology with the best of them, and my analysis of you, is that deep down you are really concerned about you being taken seriously. So, typical of the discourse in Washington these days, you "engage" by first using an insult and then you expect serious discourse. Do you really not see the problem? Or, are you simply trying to bait me on purpose? If you are doing this on purpose, what is your goal or point? I have already stated that I am not going to change. Hell, I have been in relationships with women giving me sex that wanted me to change, and I didn't. So how do you expect your insults to motivate me to change? It ain't going to happen.

So, for the third or fourth time, if you don't like me, my style, my sources, my logic or lack of logic, etc, etc, ignore my posts.

Quote:

agree or not with the overall interpretation in this--or any other--actual research on the question, and you'll see that your basic claims are based, as i said before, on nothing.

Not true. I was playing Mercenaries 2 World In Flames on Xbox, the setting was Venezuela. It was extremely helpful in forming the basis of some of my views. There clearly is absolutely nothing else that could support my position on Chavez, correct?

Quote:

dippin's right in that chavez has not done all he claimed he set out to do, but the fact is that the nature of the movement that he represents is not bidness as usual, the modality of doing politics is not bidness as usual, etc...your "interpretation" isn't even consistent with that of the right opposition in venezuela--and typically, you're a connect-the-dots kinda guy--which has the advantage of at least coming from *somewhere*...

What does that have to do with him getting overthrown? Perhaps, you simply argue against the wrong point. There are people in Venezuela who are motivated to overthrow Chavez and they don't care how much he has done compared to what he said he would do.

02-16-2009, 08:20 AM	#2 (permalink)
aceventura3 Junkie Location: Ventura County	I predict that he will be overthrown. There is a similar pattern being followed here, his only hope is for the price of oil to go back up into the triple digits. __________________ "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

02-17-2009, 04:03 PM	#6 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Chavez has not just been voted in "forever". He still has to submit to elections. And assuming they are free elections, he can be voted out of office just as the Canadian PM, who has the same ability to stay in power indefinitely, can. With the US history of intervention in Venezuela, including the recently attempted coup on Chavez, the US would be best to just let this play out. The US should focus on breaking its need of foreign oil... __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

02-17-2009, 04:11 PM	#7 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	no ace, chavez is not following the pattern of past leaders. if you're interested, you should check out the film "the revolution will not be televised" for a very interesting account of venezuelan politics, chavez and the last american-backed coup attempt. it was made by an irish television crew that was given a remarkable degree of access to chavez and which happened to be doing their project when the coup attempt happened. it's particularly good on the role conservative television played in mobilizing conservatives around the coup attempt. you should watch it. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

02-18-2009, 01:25 PM	#10 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	so what you're saying, ace, is that huge chavez is in power. i wasn't aware that was at issue in this thread. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

02-19-2009, 09:17 AM	#12 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	you aren't saying anything, ace. and your prognostication about chavez is based on nothing. __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite

02-16-2009, 09:24 AM	#3 (permalink)
dippin Crazy, indeed Location: the ether	This is a case where image overtakes substance on both sides. Chavez is a mildly ineffective reformer who uses oil revenues to advance social programs. He is not abolishing private property, and the things that the state has purchased, it has done so at market prices. Inequality is falling faster in Brazil with Lula and Chile with Bachelet. So his popularity there is matched by his unpopularity here because of his discourse. Mildly ineffective reformers are generally not very popular, but mildly ineffective reformers who do largely symbolic acts of "resistance" to US pressure can become very popular. So he yells, and screams, and does photo-ops with Castro, becoming a useful bogeyman for the American right, and a "symbol" of resistance for the South American left. Socialist? No, not at all. Now, as far as the referendum, whatever you think of him, there are fewer ways to alter election rules than through a referendum. And even then he can only stay in power "indefinitely" if he keeps winning elections. Now, what should the American administration do? Nothing. As long as the US intervenes in Latin America, mildly ineffective reformers without much of a record will become very popular by riding anti-US resentment.

02-19-2009, 01:20 PM	#14 (permalink)
roachboy Super Moderator Location: essex ma	o for god's sake, ace, do some research. i'll make it easy for you In the Shadow of the Liberator: Hugo Chávez and the Transformation of Venezuela agree or not with the overall interpretation in this--or any other--actual research on the question, and you'll see that your basic claims are based, as i said before, on nothing. dippin's right in that chavez has not done all he claimed he set out to do, but the fact is that the nature of the movement that he represents is not bidness as usual, the modality of doing politics is not bidness as usual, etc...your "interpretation" isn't even consistent with that of the right opposition in venezuela--and typically, you're a connect-the-dots kinda guy--which has the advantage of at least coming from somewhere... __________________ a gramophone its corrugated trumpet silver handle spinning dog. such faithfulness it hear it make you sick. -kamau brathwaite