CANADA: Possible Non-Confidence Vote? - Page 3 - Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community

CandleInTheDark · 12-08-2008, 11:03 AM

Charlatan, Harper is 12 seats short of a Majority with a poor showing in Quebec. He doesn't need Quebec for a majority. I would also expect federalists in Quebec will now turn their Liberal vote into a Conservative one given the alignment we've seen between the Seperatists and the Liberals. Quebec simply is not as valuable to the federal politics as it once was, and with shifting electoral base to the west it will increasingly lose it's power.

Given the pandering done to Quebec during Harper's time in power, and no pay off from it, the Tories will no longer seek to appease the Quebec electorate. Let them suffer the Bloc Quebecois.

Charlatan · 12-08-2008, 03:47 PM

A Harper majority would be the worst thing for Canada, arguably as bad as Quebec separation. Hyperbole? Perhaps.

percy · 12-08-2008, 03:57 PM

So Dion stepped down today. I must say, I like calling him incompetant, but really,..I kind of feel sorry for him. He looked like a deer caught in the headlights from the second he won the leadership bid in Montreal. And what a roller coaster ride for him. A week ago he was probably lying in bed unable to sleep, fantasizing about being PM, meeting world leaders, getting free rounds of golf and then,...POOF,...reality hits him for the last time. At least he didn't have a heart attack under all that scrutiny.

Now comes Iggy.(I will call him Iggy because I can neither spell nor pronounce his name) Now theres a spot between a rock and well,..a rock. I think he wants time to get a foot hold on the situation,..in other words I don't think he wants to overthrow the government just yet. For his survival, it would be better to let Harper dig his own hole for the next 12-18 months and rebuild whats left of the Liberals.

But you've got Bob"pit bull" Rae who is raring to see Harper out on his tush. If a coalition government with Iggy at the helm agrees to a non-confidence vote, that will be lights out for Iggy. They will not win. Then Bob will get his chance. Any card carrying Liberals out there? Pay attention, you may get a shot at being leader. Oh wait,..forgot about Belinda. 7 to 1 odds she makes an appearance if the coalition goes ahead next month and fails.

As for,..geez I almost forgot his name already. As for Layton? Never will be a threat. And the other guy,.the sovereigntist. Same bargain bin as Layton.

-----Added 8/12/2008 at 07 : 04 : 42-----

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlatan

A Harper majority would be the worst thing for Canada, arguably as bad as Quebec separation. Hyperbole? Perhaps.

Couldn't be worse than Chretien unless Harper ruled a majority for 10 years and achieved as little,..or basically next to nothing, while being asleep at the wheel for the '95 referendum, scandal on top of scandal, etc And even worse, Chretien was such an arrogant dispicable megalomaniac that he had to destroy his own party so that any successors couldn't or wouldn't dim the light that Chretien thinks shines for him only. If Harper can do all that, I'll give you props for sure.

m0rpheus · 12-09-2008, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by percy

So Dion stepped down today. I must say, I like calling him incompetant, but really,..I kind of feel sorry for him. He looked like a deer caught in the headlights from the second he won the leadership bid in Montreal. And what a roller coaster ride for him. A week ago he was probably lying in bed unable to sleep, fantasizing about being PM, meeting world leaders, getting free rounds of golf and then,...POOF,...reality hits him for the last time. At least he didn't have a heart attack under all that scrutiny.

Now comes Iggy.(I will call him Iggy because I can neither spell nor pronounce his name) Now theres a spot between a rock and well,..a rock. I think he wants time to get a foot hold on the situation,..in other words I don't think he wants to overthrow the government just yet. For his survival, it would be better to let Harper dig his own hole for the next 12-18 months and rebuild whats left of the Liberals.

But you've got Bob"pit bull" Rae who is raring to see Harper out on his tush. If a coalition government with Iggy at the helm agrees to a non-confidence vote, that will be lights out for Iggy. They will not win. Then Bob will get his chance. Any card carrying Liberals out there? Pay attention, you may get a shot at being leader. Oh wait,..forgot about Belinda. 7 to 1 odds she makes an appearance if the coalition goes ahead next month and fails.

As for,..geez I almost forgot his name already. As for Layton? Never will be a threat. And the other guy,.the sovereigntist. Same bargain bin as Layton.

-----Added 8/12/2008 at 07 : 04 : 42-----

Couldn't be worse than Chretien unless Harper ruled a majority for 10 years and achieved as little,..or basically next to nothing, while being asleep at the wheel for the '95 referendum, scandal on top of scandal, etc And even worse, Chretien was such an arrogant dispicable megalomaniac that he had to destroy his own party so that any successors couldn't or wouldn't dim the light that Chretien thinks shines for him only. If Harper can do all that, I'll give you props for sure.

So I guess we'll see what Iggy does now. I really have no idea. It all depends on Harper's next move with the budget. I don't actually think Iggy will lead the liberals in a coalition for anything more than sending us back to the polls because he just kinda stayed in the backgrounds of whole coalition thing (probably so it wouldn't bite him in the ass later).
If Harper tables a budget that a) makes sense and b) isn't designed to piss off all the other parties then I can see it going through and going back to business as usual in Ottawa (Harper minority with no coalition).

Charlatan · 12-10-2008, 05:08 AM

Harper did what he needed to do (or to appear to be doing), he reached out and offered the new leader of the Liberals, Ignatieff, a chance to work together with him on the budget.

Ignatieff is taking the high road on this and not forcing the issue of the coalition or the vote of non-confidence. His words, "a coalition if necessary, but not necessarily a coalition" is exactly what is needed. The threat of a coalition is a strong weapon to use against the Conservative minority. Perhaps Ignatieff can keep Harper in line.

fresnelly · 12-10-2008, 06:29 AM

What a roller coaster ride.

Hopefully the coalition and a unilateral minority are both dead.

Given his baggage, Bob Rae's drop out was very, very smart.

Can we cut a month of the break now? Pretty please?

percy · 12-10-2008, 02:52 PM

I think Iggy and Harper will be a good match for challenging each other. Let's face it, Harper dealing with Dion and especially Layton is an intellectual mismatch. Dion somewhat less just because I think his biggest problem is that he can't express himself in an outward sense,,..he is a thinker but can't think on his feet.

An obstacle Iggy he will have to overcome is to be identifiable to the public. Loads of people know nothing about him and his challenge, when ever the next election comes will be to convince people that he is the person for the job after spending 3 decades in the USA.

I haven't reached an opinion on Iggy yet other than at the first glance a couple of years ago,...he was a little wet behind the ears, so will have to see what kind of substance has developed in the interim.

I certainly hope he isn't another one of these windbag scholars like,..oh who's that pain in the ass who hangs out with the likes of hack writers like Margaret Atwood et al....oh yeah,..Mr. Adrienne Clarkson, otherwise known in less formal circles as John Ralston Saul. If Iggy is anything like that self centered creep well,...me, Joe Poutine and Johnny Hayseed will not be impressed. Save it for those who give a shit.
-----Added 10/12/2008 at 08 : 27 : 43-----
Just checking around the political front and notice a few conservative mp's acknowledging Iggy's almost distancing act from the coalition and more interesting, that from the NDP.

I like that.The conservatives saying they are willing to listen to and specifically to the Liberals with zero mention to the NDP and Bloc.

Seems the conservatives are throwing the liberals a bone. Hmmm

Leto · 12-10-2008, 08:32 PM

oh my goodness...do I detect a resurgence of the Progressive Conservative brand? Could it be so?

Charlatan · 12-12-2008, 10:33 PM

The Progressive Conservative party is dead. Their numbers within the CPC are too low compared to the core of Reformers that make up the party. It would take quite a bit (more than just getting rid of Harper) to change the direction of their policy to more in line with what the PC party was.

The truth is, the Liberals under Chretien were far more conservative in the fiscal policy than most seem to recall. They hugely cut spending and as a result managed to be the only G7 country to run deficit free budgets. It's for this reason that many in the PC party didn't return to PC party after Mulroney left the party shattered. They stayed Liberal for many years. It was only with the ad scandal and then Dion, that Liberals bled votes to the Conservatives, NDP and Greens.

There are a number of votes that can be won back with the right leadership at the helm of the Liberals.

I still don't see a majority for any party but we could easily see a minority for the Liberals within one or two elections... and given the frequency of elections these days, that could be a year from now.

The other thing of note is that even if the Conservatives fall, this time over the appointment of the Senators, I have heard that Ignatief may attempt to form the government with the support of the NDP and Bloc but not in the form of an official coalition (the difference being there would be no cabinet seats for the NDP).

The Trudeau minority in the early 70s had a similar set up.

percy · 12-13-2008, 07:55 AM

Well Iggy was on the tube yesterday after his meeting with Harper and basically said it is Harpers job to come up with a plan, not his. So much for the opposition wanting their say. Actually more like entitlement of their demands.

Not that this is a bad thing. More power to Harper now that he can shower Canadians with the goods to isolate the opposition.

He has the green light to appease Canadians, the ones who matter in the grand scheme of things, not the desperate opposition.

Charlatan · 12-13-2008, 08:29 AM

From the sounds of it, Harper wasn't putting anything out there, he was just asking the opposition to come up with something. That doesn't sound like working together. That sounds like Harper was trying to set it up the opposition so that when the economy continues to tank he can blame them.

Quite frankly, I wish they'd all stop fucking around and get on with it. They are all still manoeuvring while things get worse.

Baraka_Guru · 12-13-2008, 08:44 AM

I haven't yet contributed to or commented on this thread, but I've been following along quietly. I'm still digesting all of this.

One thing I'll add, though, is that I give Harper a lot of credit. He's proven on a number of occasions--in the last government--that he has a strong capacity for politicking. Much of the degradation of the Liberal party over the past few years has happened directly through the actions of Harper. He's shown me that he's a politician's politician. (Which, coincidentally, is why I don't want him to ever get a majority.)

Although it may seem he's made a few "mistakes" lately, I'm not so sure this is the case. He's got a briefcase full of things he can pull out at any time to make an example of the Liberals to the benefit of the Tories. He will show that the Liberals have had a track record of going along with the Tories, whether it was as positive support or through a lack of negating actions.

I'm thinking he's doing some more mining here with the threat of the coalition. When it comes time for the Tories to go for their majority (if there ever comes a time), they will have a ton of talking points to communicate to the public. This is currently the strength of the Tory position in this minority environment.

12-08-2008, 11:03 AM	#81 (permalink)
CandleInTheDark Addict Location: Where the music's loudest	Charlatan, Harper is 12 seats short of a Majority with a poor showing in Quebec. He doesn't need Quebec for a majority. I would also expect federalists in Quebec will now turn their Liberal vote into a Conservative one given the alignment we've seen between the Seperatists and the Liberals. Quebec simply is not as valuable to the federal politics as it once was, and with shifting electoral base to the west it will increasingly lose it's power. Given the pandering done to Quebec during Harper's time in power, and no pay off from it, the Tories will no longer seek to appease the Quebec electorate. Let them suffer the Bloc Quebecois. __________________ Where there is doubt there is freedom.

12-08-2008, 03:47 PM	#82 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	A Harper majority would be the worst thing for Canada, arguably as bad as Quebec separation. Hyperbole? Perhaps. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

12-10-2008, 05:08 AM	#85 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	Harper did what he needed to do (or to appear to be doing), he reached out and offered the new leader of the Liberals, Ignatieff, a chance to work together with him on the budget. Ignatieff is taking the high road on this and not forcing the issue of the coalition or the vote of non-confidence. His words, "a coalition if necessary, but not necessarily a coalition" is exactly what is needed. The threat of a coalition is a strong weapon to use against the Conservative minority. Perhaps Ignatieff can keep Harper in line. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

12-10-2008, 06:29 AM	#86 (permalink)
fresnelly Functionally Appropriate Location: Toronto	What a roller coaster ride. Hopefully the coalition and a unilateral minority are both dead. Given his baggage, Bob Rae's drop out was very, very smart. Can we cut a month of the break now? Pretty please? __________________ Building an artificial intelligence that appreciates Mozart is easy. Building an A.I. that appreciates a theme restaurant is the real challenge - Kit Roebuck - Nine Planets Without Intelligent Life

12-10-2008, 02:52 PM	#87 (permalink)
percy Addict	I think Iggy and Harper will be a good match for challenging each other. Let's face it, Harper dealing with Dion and especially Layton is an intellectual mismatch. Dion somewhat less just because I think his biggest problem is that he can't express himself in an outward sense,,..he is a thinker but can't think on his feet. An obstacle Iggy he will have to overcome is to be identifiable to the public. Loads of people know nothing about him and his challenge, when ever the next election comes will be to convince people that he is the person for the job after spending 3 decades in the USA. I haven't reached an opinion on Iggy yet other than at the first glance a couple of years ago,...he was a little wet behind the ears, so will have to see what kind of substance has developed in the interim. I certainly hope he isn't another one of these windbag scholars like,..oh who's that pain in the ass who hangs out with the likes of hack writers like Margaret Atwood et al....oh yeah,..Mr. Adrienne Clarkson, otherwise known in less formal circles as John Ralston Saul. If Iggy is anything like that self centered creep well,...me, Joe Poutine and Johnny Hayseed will not be impressed. Save it for those who give a shit. -----Added 10/12/2008 at 08 : 27 : 43----- Just checking around the political front and notice a few conservative mp's acknowledging Iggy's almost distancing act from the coalition and more interesting, that from the NDP. I like that.The conservatives saying they are willing to listen to and specifically to the Liberals with zero mention to the NDP and Bloc. Seems the conservatives are throwing the liberals a bone. Hmmm Last edited by percy; 12-10-2008 at 05:27 PM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost

12-10-2008, 08:32 PM	#88 (permalink)
Leto Junkie Location: The Danforth	oh my goodness...do I detect a resurgence of the Progressive Conservative brand? Could it be so? __________________ You said you didn't give a fuck about hockey And I never saw someone say that before You held my hand and we walked home the long way You were loosening my grip on Bobby Orr http://dune.wikia.com/wiki/Leto_Atreides_I

12-12-2008, 10:33 PM	#89 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	The Progressive Conservative party is dead. Their numbers within the CPC are too low compared to the core of Reformers that make up the party. It would take quite a bit (more than just getting rid of Harper) to change the direction of their policy to more in line with what the PC party was. The truth is, the Liberals under Chretien were far more conservative in the fiscal policy than most seem to recall. They hugely cut spending and as a result managed to be the only G7 country to run deficit free budgets. It's for this reason that many in the PC party didn't return to PC party after Mulroney left the party shattered. They stayed Liberal for many years. It was only with the ad scandal and then Dion, that Liberals bled votes to the Conservatives, NDP and Greens. There are a number of votes that can be won back with the right leadership at the helm of the Liberals. I still don't see a majority for any party but we could easily see a minority for the Liberals within one or two elections... and given the frequency of elections these days, that could be a year from now. The other thing of note is that even if the Conservatives fall, this time over the appointment of the Senators, I have heard that Ignatief may attempt to form the government with the support of the NDP and Bloc but not in the form of an official coalition (the difference being there would be no cabinet seats for the NDP). The Trudeau minority in the early 70s had a similar set up. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

12-13-2008, 07:55 AM	#90 (permalink)
percy Addict	Well Iggy was on the tube yesterday after his meeting with Harper and basically said it is Harpers job to come up with a plan, not his. So much for the opposition wanting their say. Actually more like entitlement of their demands. Not that this is a bad thing. More power to Harper now that he can shower Canadians with the goods to isolate the opposition. He has the green light to appease Canadians, the ones who matter in the grand scheme of things, not the desperate opposition.

12-13-2008, 08:29 AM	#91 (permalink)
Charlatan Getting it. Super Moderator Location: Lion City	From the sounds of it, Harper wasn't putting anything out there, he was just asking the opposition to come up with something. That doesn't sound like working together. That sounds like Harper was trying to set it up the opposition so that when the economy continues to tank he can blame them. Quite frankly, I wish they'd all stop fucking around and get on with it. They are all still manoeuvring while things get worse. __________________ "My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars." - Old Man Luedecke

12-13-2008, 08:44 AM	#92 (permalink)
Baraka_Guru warrior bodhisattva Super Moderator Location: East-central Canada	I haven't yet contributed to or commented on this thread, but I've been following along quietly. I'm still digesting all of this. One thing I'll add, though, is that I give Harper a lot of credit. He's proven on a number of occasions--in the last government--that he has a strong capacity for politicking. Much of the degradation of the Liberal party over the past few years has happened directly through the actions of Harper. He's shown me that he's a politician's politician. (Which, coincidentally, is why I don't want him to ever get a majority.) Although it may seem he's made a few "mistakes" lately, I'm not so sure this is the case. He's got a briefcase full of things he can pull out at any time to make an example of the Liberals to the benefit of the Tories. He will show that the Liberals have had a track record of going along with the Tories, whether it was as positive support or through a lack of negating actions. I'm thinking he's doing some more mining here with the threat of the coalition. When it comes time for the Tories to go for their majority (if there ever comes a time), they will have a ton of talking points to communicate to the public. This is currently the strength of the Tory position in this minority environment. __________________ Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing? —Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön Humankind cannot bear very much reality. —From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot