Tully Mars

General Colin Powell endorsed Obama for POTUS on Meet the Press this morning.

What do you think of this?

Do you think this will make any difference in the outcome?

Myself I think his endorsement will have little impact. Though he spoke eliquantly about why he decided to endorse Obama I think his endorsement will have little to no impact. But given his ties to the GOP I do think it's a significant endorsement.

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pan6467

I think it will have the same effect as Lieberman endorsing McCain.

I liked Powell but it was he who assured us all hat there were WMDs in Iraq. He allowed himself to be Bush's lackey to start the war and then he resigned and dropped out of sight.

His endorsement shows me there truly is little difference in who is pulling the strings.

All that aside...... I think Powell may have been a better candidate than any of the ones currently or in the primaries. But his endorsement means little to me.

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ratbastid

Endorsements in general don't mean all that much. In this case, you've got the one BushKo scoundrel who has well and truly repented his actions, and who still carries some clout with thinking GOP (as distinguished from the typical Palin rally attendee). I hope people will bother to listen to his rationale.

Powell might be a good president, but I don't think he could ever get elected; his association with Bush's lies makes him a fatally flawed candidate.

flstf

Listening to him this morning it seems that the VP choice of Palin and the personal attacks, robo calls etc.. and the increasing hate being displayed at Republican campaign rallys have played a big part in his decision to endorse Obama. It is not so much McCain who he has been friends with for 25 years and even contributed to his campaign but the narrowing of the Republican party's focus and appealing to the hate crowd which represent intolerance and tends to separate not unify us.

I don't think the endorsement will mean much but may help Obama with military members and retirees in Florida and perhaps Virginia.

Tully Mars

Hadn't considered his appeal for the retirees in places like Florida. With that in mind he could be a larger asset then I thought. I'd look for the McCain camp, Fox News et el to start painting Powell as misguided if not a traitor.

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pan6467

I can agree with this, with one exception.... there is just as much hate on he Dem side it is just more well hidden in innuendo and round about ways.

I moved the rest to a new thread.

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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"

dc_dux

Powell is still highly regarded and respected by many Americas so, as far as endorsements matter, it is probably a bit more meaningful than most endorsements.

Equally important to his endorsing Obama was Powell's harsh attack of the McCain campaign tactics and his concern about the shift of the Republican party to a far right social agenda combined with dangerous xenophobic sentiments. IMO, that reinforces those same concerns of the still undecided swing voters.
-----Added 19/10/2008 at 02 : 58 : 34-----
Limbaugh is now trying to make Powell's endorsement a racial issue:

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Cynthetiq

I'd say that it made an impression upon me. I respect Mr. Powell very much and have since the Gulf War. His statement was clear, concise and with alot of logic and temper.

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Willravel

While I recognize the mistake Powell made once upon a time, I never really lost all of my respect for him. Honestly, I suspect he's the one figure from the original cast of Survivor: Bush Administration that people generally still respect.

Is this endorsement a huge deal? No. Is it more than noteworthy? Certainly.

dc_dux

The country would be well served with more clear and concise statements like this:
-----Added 19/10/2008 at 03 : 20 : 41-----
As well as Powell's response to McCain's latest claim that Obama is a socialist:

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tisonlyi

Dismissed by those of racial mentalities as a choice of race.

Propounded by those of reasonable judgement as a reasonable judgement in light of the total picture.

(tongue firmly in cheek)

It'll shift some of the more moderate, national security-minded folks, no?

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Paq

polls are showing a dramatic increase in undecideds who favor obama after the powell endorsement...
or maybe it was the chicago tribune or LA times endorsements...which are all historic..

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Tully Mars

What polls? He just endorsed this morning.

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Paq

msnbc's polls earlier on the news. sorry, i sometimes watch tv, so i'm not sure where i can find the link

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Derwood

It's not going to be as big a deal as it should be

genuinegirly

I have interacted with a few folks who consider Colin Powell some sort of role model. This endorsement might impact them.

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Tully Mars

I'm just curious, found it odd that someone would have a poll out within hours of the endorsement. I mean news outlets often have some type of users polls where their viewers or readers will vote for this or that. I could see one of those coming out but they're highly skewed.

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roachboy

it's curious that during the campaign, any sense of the diversity of the republican party has been buried under the campaign's attempts to sell itself as an expression of some unity and so to sell the unity it expresses. i've been curious about the effects of mc-cain-palin on moderate republicans more generally. powell's endorsement of obama seems a reflection of the situation the centrists must, i expect, find themselves in.

have other republican moderates endorsed obama?


added a bit later, while watching the red sox...

here's a ny times piece about the fracturing of the conservative talking head class around mc-cain/palin. it's germaine and kinda interesting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/19/we...9cohen.html?hp

subs are free.

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guyy

Lincoln Chaffee did. Jim Leach did too, but he lost his house seat in '06. The former gov. of Michigan more or less retracted his endorsement of McCain. The Michigan GOP establishment doesn't seem too thrilled about McCain & Palin. Check this out. The Republican mayor of Fairbanks Alaska also endorsed Obama.

Chuck Hagel has all but endorsed Obama campaign. His wife did, but Chuck himself has not gone all the way.

Catdaddy33

It may sway some of the moderate undecided but I'm not sure if it will have as much an impact in the current batch of swing states. I think it's more of a stinger for McCain that a win for Obama, I'm sure the Faux News Network is already spinning how bad Powell is and will dismiss him as a party traitor...

That whole Socialist thing that McCain is swing around about Obama now, didn't McCain also vote for the single largest Socialist-like bill ever in American history? The $700 billion one that's partly Nationalizing banks??

Poppinjay

Drudge has already labeled Powell a "Weapon of Mass Defection".

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roachboy

it's been kinda interesting watching this ridiculous "socialism" term getting torched in news shows over the weekend, particularly those which involved interviews with various bank beneficiaries of state largesse. i think that th mc-cain campaign's rhetoric on this is being seen as Problematic outside the range of the campaign space, like it's undercutting such legitimacy as there is to the bush people's nationalization moves.

there rest that could be said i feel like i've written here so many times that it's unnecessary to do it again.
sigh.
longevity.,

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it make you sick.

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Tully Mars

Drudge, ya just gotta laugh any more. Matt was using the same poll for like a week. It was the one and only poll on the planet that showed McCain within the margin of error. Think it was the Gallup Daily. Who ever it was they came up with new results basically the next day. Matt kept that one poll posted for at least a week, hell it's probably still there.

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smooth

the backlash against Powell on a personal level indicate it's more important of an endorsement than many posts here are giving it credit. there have been numerous high profile, extremely influential Republicans along with historically Conservative newspapers that have already endorsed Obama and none of them have received the attacks Powell has endured for his endorsement.

Even more important, I believe, is the effect these attacks on him and his credibility will have on voters. People who are moved by his endorsement will swing toward Obama as well as more voters moved away by the reaction to Powell from people such as Limbaugh will also swing toward Obama.


Many of us don't rely on endorsements on this board, we pour over media sources and TFPolitics throughout the year. But for the average working person who can't follow politics like that, they have to rely on endorsements. While polls seem to indicate that endorsements don't move the dial measurably, that doesn't mean they don't matter (although that's often the conclusion drawn). Three reasons they may not measurably move the poll dial, but actually affect voters in ways that matter:
1. For every person who moves toward the endorsement, a person could move away.
So if you have 1000 people who vote for Obama due to Powell, if you had 1000 people refuse to vote for Obama because of the Powell endorsement, the needle would not measurably move unless the pollsters specifically probed both groups.
2. Polls can only measure effects after the fact. That is, if people who are swayed by endorsements can only evaluate their choices right up to the week leading to and during the voting period, polls will not capture that movement unless they do post-election polling and probe that specific effect.
3. Endorsements might only effect a small population of voters, which might not necessarily show up with statistical significance on a poll. In a tight race, like the last three we have had, a few hundred people could move toward the endorsement but not show up on a poll yet still manage to change the race's decision.

Each election cycle, California has so many propositions, even though I try to be an informed voter I often have to rely on endorsements from people and groups who seem to share my values as part of that process. I look at who wrote the measure, who is writing against it, and usually what the LA Times has to say about them. I then filter that information through my circle of friends. There really isn't any way for me to efficiently pour through a hundred propositions and carefully read them as well as the background leading up to them.

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guyy

I think the dam has burst. Republicans are coming out for Obama in droves. The other day it was William Weld, Scott McClellan & Anne Carlson, now Charles Fried, Reagan's Solicitor General, who had been on several of McCain's committees has said he voted for Obama. One of his primary reasons: McCain's choice of Palin in a time of national crisis. Perhaps the most surprising endorsement was from Ken Adelman, who is a conservative, not a moderate.