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smooth · 10-20-2008, 06:03 PM

the backlash against Powell on a personal level indicate it's more important of an endorsement than many posts here are giving it credit. there have been numerous high profile, extremely influential Republicans along with historically Conservative newspapers that have already endorsed Obama and none of them have received the attacks Powell has endured for his endorsement.

Even more important, I believe, is the effect these attacks on him and his credibility will have on voters. People who are moved by his endorsement will swing toward Obama as well as more voters moved away by the reaction to Powell from people such as Limbaugh will also swing toward Obama.

Many of us don't rely on endorsements on this board, we pour over media sources and TFPolitics throughout the year. But for the average working person who can't follow politics like that, they have to rely on endorsements. While polls seem to indicate that endorsements don't move the dial measurably, that doesn't mean they don't matter (although that's often the conclusion drawn). Three reasons they may not measurably move the poll dial, but actually affect voters in ways that matter:
1. For every person who moves toward the endorsement, a person could move away.
So if you have 1000 people who vote for Obama due to Powell, if you had 1000 people refuse to vote for Obama because of the Powell endorsement, the needle would not measurably move unless the pollsters specifically probed both groups.
2. Polls can only measure effects after the fact. That is, if people who are swayed by endorsements can only evaluate their choices right up to the week leading to and during the voting period, polls will not capture that movement unless they do post-election polling and probe that specific effect.
3. Endorsements might only effect a small population of voters, which might not necessarily show up with statistical significance on a poll. In a tight race, like the last three we have had, a few hundred people could move toward the endorsement but not show up on a poll yet still manage to change the race's decision.

Each election cycle, California has so many propositions, even though I try to be an informed voter I often have to rely on endorsements from people and groups who seem to share my values as part of that process. I look at who wrote the measure, who is writing against it, and usually what the LA Times has to say about them. I then filter that information through my circle of friends. There really isn't any way for me to efficiently pour through a hundred propositions and carefully read them as well as the background leading up to them.

10-20-2008, 06:03 PM	#24 (permalink)
smooth Junkie Location: Right here	the backlash against Powell on a personal level indicate it's more important of an endorsement than many posts here are giving it credit. there have been numerous high profile, extremely influential Republicans along with historically Conservative newspapers that have already endorsed Obama and none of them have received the attacks Powell has endured for his endorsement. Even more important, I believe, is the effect these attacks on him and his credibility will have on voters. People who are moved by his endorsement will swing toward Obama as well as more voters moved away by the reaction to Powell from people such as Limbaugh will also swing toward Obama. Many of us don't rely on endorsements on this board, we pour over media sources and TFPolitics throughout the year. But for the average working person who can't follow politics like that, they have to rely on endorsements. While polls seem to indicate that endorsements don't move the dial measurably, that doesn't mean they don't matter (although that's often the conclusion drawn). Three reasons they may not measurably move the poll dial, but actually affect voters in ways that matter: 1. For every person who moves toward the endorsement, a person could move away. So if you have 1000 people who vote for Obama due to Powell, if you had 1000 people refuse to vote for Obama because of the Powell endorsement, the needle would not measurably move unless the pollsters specifically probed both groups. 2. Polls can only measure effects after the fact. That is, if people who are swayed by endorsements can only evaluate their choices right up to the week leading to and during the voting period, polls will not capture that movement unless they do post-election polling and probe that specific effect. 3. Endorsements might only effect a small population of voters, which might not necessarily show up with statistical significance on a poll. In a tight race, like the last three we have had, a few hundred people could move toward the endorsement but not show up on a poll yet still manage to change the race's decision. Each election cycle, California has so many propositions, even though I try to be an informed voter I often have to rely on endorsements from people and groups who seem to share my values as part of that process. I look at who wrote the measure, who is writing against it, and usually what the LA Times has to say about them. I then filter that information through my circle of friends. There really isn't any way for me to efficiently pour through a hundred propositions and carefully read them as well as the background leading up to them. __________________ "The theory of a free press is that truth will emerge from free discussion, not that it will be presented perfectly and instantly in any one account." -- Walter Lippmann "You measure democracy by the freedom it gives its dissidents, not the freedom it gives its assimilated conformists." -- Abbie Hoffman