Baraka_Guru

Well, it's tomorrow. The Speech from the Throne is expected to be interesting, as the other minority parties are leaving it up to the Liberals to decide on the confidence in the Tories.

What are you expecting to happen? Will Harper come down hard with Conservative ideals we can expect to see in the coming months, or will he be moderate in his approach? This decision, of course, depends on what Harper wants: Does he want an election now when the Tories have a high approval rating (40%, I think) that is outpacing the Liberals, or will he wish to hold on for a bit longer?

How do you think the Liberals will react to each scenario? Will they open the door for an election if Harper goes too far? Can the Liberals afford such a risk at this point? Deep down, I hope Harper gets reckless; I wouldn't mind seeing him lose power to a minority Liberal government, but it looks like it could be a big risk. It is entirely possible that an election now could see a Tory majority. This is something I wouldn't want to see at this point in time.

Do you think Harper has something up his sleeve? What is the deal with that panel he put together regarding Afghanistan? Do you think he's planning on using that as leverage in his next election campaign?

Thoughts?

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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

highthief

Harper will stay moderate - while in theory the Tories are ahead in the polls right now, if he came out with a very right wing agenda in the Throne Speech that subsequently caused a no-confidence vote, the public would react very negatively to said agenda and punish him in a subsequent election.

I think he'll largely maintain the status quo, push through a couple of things he wants, but nothing radical.

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Si vis pacem parabellum.

Sticky

Can someone combine the two threads
http://www.tfproject.org/tfp/showthread.php?t=125824


Forget for a minute what party is what and on which side you may lie and look at it this way.

There are 4 major parties.

Only 2 have a chance of forming a government Minority or Majority (although I guess if things get really crazy it is possible for the Bloc to form a minority govt as well).

The party in power has a minority govt.

2 of the other parties said they will vot against the goverment.

The 3rd does not enjoy large enough support from the Canadian public to form a minority govt (or majority for that matter) and would look pretty bad forcing an election unless the issue was a very serious one.
This party has been painted into a corner so that it will definately look like it was them that forced the election.
The ruling party smartly put one of the major issues our their reach by appointing a former Deputy Prime Minister from their party to lead investigation into the issue.

Looks to me like the Liberals don't have much choice but to go along with the Conservatives until their fortunes start looking up.

Harper has room to push the envelope if he likes. As long as he does not push too far the Liberals won't take down the government.

My predictions:
It will be a bold speech but it won't stray too far from center.
Everyone except conservatives will say it involves too much spending, that tax cuts are too high, and that it is not doing enough for Canadian society and the environment. They will say that even if the speech could have been the same one given by a Liberal govt (we are so partisan).
The NDP and Bloc will vote against the govt at their first opportunity.
The Liberals will also vote aginst the government but they will not show up in enough numbers to take it down.

Just my predictions.


Anybody know what time it will be tonight?

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Sticky The Stickman

snowy

CBC will have full coverage starting at 6:30 Eastern time.

I haven't seen anything about it on any of the American media outlets all day. Guess we don't care as much about Canadian politics as we probably should, given they're our next-door neighbors, and we have many common interests. Additionally, I doubt few Americans have more than a very basic understanding of precisely how parliamentary governments work. But I'll be paying attention. It interests me.

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If I am not better, at least I am different. --Jean-Jacques Rousseau

Baraka_Guru

I agree with you for the most part, Sticky. I'm watching the coverage on CBC television right now. I think if anything will bring down the government, it will be a combination of issues: Tax cuts in addition to such things as Arctic sovereignty, extended/increased Afghanistan promises, etc., etc. This cannot work without running a deficit or drastically cutting other programs. No other party besides the Tories are ready to go there.

Whether the government falls will depend on how extreme the Liberals view the Tory agenda when it comes down to the numbers.

My hoped worst-case scenario: Early election, another Tory minority government. They need to be kept on a short leash.


Snowy, I think you should focus on how much Americans care for their own politics. If anything, though, do enjoy watching how the parliamentary system works. I feel somewhat satisfied with the government system we have, especially when I see what goes on in the United States.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Sticky

I missed it completely.
It was "geting the kids to bed time".

I am going to check it out on the news later and maybe try to find the whole speech on line later.

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Sticky The Stickman

Charlatan

I have been monitoring the situation from here but feel that Dion isn't going to do shit. He's barely in control of his own caucus. How can he expect to win an election. Besides, I have a feeling he'd get his ass handed to him (especially in Quebec) if he brought about an election today.

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"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Baraka_Guru

True enough, Charlatan. But Harper has forced the Liberals into a tough position. Especially when you look at the three key points--Kyoto, Afghanistan, and crime--the Tories are basically telling the Liberals to put up or shut up. They sounded moderate in the speech, but in action, who knows how things will pan out?

All eyes on Dion today.

__________________
Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön

Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot

Sticky

Ignatief alread said that there is no poison pill in the speech.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/...onespeech.html

But that could just be cracks in the leadership.
I think a strong leadership, in this case, would have ensured that everyone kept their mouth shut until the party came out with something official.

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Sticky The Stickman

Charlatan

Dion will roll over.

He is too stuck on polls and the polls say not to take a chance. Ignatief opining as he did just shows that there is an increasing crack, as Sticky rightly points out.

__________________
"My hands are on fire. Hands are on fire. Ain't got no more time for all you charlatans and liars."
- Old Man Luedecke

Sticky

I have been listeing to the local talk news radio station on the web today.
They spoke to someone on The Hill.

The rumors are that Dion wants to vote against the speech becuase he feels his reputation as an environment advocate will be urt if he does not and that Libral MPs, however, don't want to vote agaist it.

Apparently we will hear this afternoon.

I am listening here:
http://www.cjad.com/player/player

They will cut to it as soon as Dion starts his anouncement.

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Sticky The Stickman