10-03-2007, 01:13 PM | #1 (permalink) |
Psycho
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A little bit of world politics.
Kosova is a province in Serbia with a majority Albanian population; about 90% of the province or 1.8 million people are Albanian. You may recall that events in the late 90s lead to NATO action against Serbia to stop the impending genocide. The Serb government in the name of cracking down on terrorism tried to take advantage of the situation and get rid of their Albanian problem, in the process some hundreds of thousands of people were displaced and thousands killed. Ever since then the province has been in essence independent and run by the UN. By the end of this year it is likely that they will declare independence after almost 2 years of fruitless talks and almost a decade of UN rule. This may come to a head since Russia is a strong supporter of the Serb cause. In case no resolution can passed in the UN, which seems likely, Kosova will declare independence unilaterally. What are your thoughts on the situation? Specifically, do you believe Kosova should get independence, and why so? I’ll spare you my thoughts since they’re probably easy to guess.
An article on the current situation: http://www.reuters.com/article/world...3?pageNumber=1 |
10-03-2007, 01:50 PM | #2 (permalink) |
... a sort of licensed troubleshooter.
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I'll shamefully admit that I'm behind on current knowledge of the region, but besides my deep sympathies. I suspect that independence is what's best for everyone, but are you able to self sustain? Is your economy and military strong enough to stand independence? I mean last time I checked, Kosovo (what we call Kosova) is very poor. I'd love for you guys to become independent and flourish, but it looks like things might be rough for a while.
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10-03-2007, 01:55 PM | #3 (permalink) |
Tilted
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i know precious little about what's going on in the former yugoslavia -- except that i learned that there are apparently serbian ex-military employed by blackwater, some of whom might be linked to war atrocities, i was a bit startled to hear that -- but i think of sierra leone... totally different region, yes, but recently torn apart by war and spending long years under UN occupation and recently had elections... which i gather were tense but occurred mostly without bloodshed. i dunno, that probably has nothing to do with this.
with russia wrestling with the chechens are they really going to have a lot of resources to aid the serbs? did they do so in the 90s? i wouldn't know. |
10-03-2007, 03:11 PM | #4 (permalink) |
Psycho
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It is true that Kosova is a poor region. If it gained statehood it would probably become the poorest country in Europe. However, the economy only continues to suffer because of the ambiguity of the situation. No one wants to invest money when everything could blow up at any time, literally and figuratively. In fact, the economy of Kosova is probably mostly supported by the UN and EU, when the UN mission finally pulls out it could be devastating economically. There are many Kosvars that live abroad and they will send money back home, but it is indeed a challenge. Militarily, it is unlikely that an independent Kosova could win against Serbia in a one on one war. However, whereas 8 years ago it was a lopsided victory for the Serbs if another conflict were to happen today there would be many more casualties, and an actual chance for victory.
As for Russia they have plenty of resources. Russia lately wants to do anything to flex their muscle at the West, and since the West in general supports independence this is as good a place as any. They have veto power in the Security Council of the UN. Which for the Serbs might as well guarantee that there can’t be UN backed solution for independence. In my opinion it is just a bad move, it’s clear to see that for all intensive purposes they have lost the region. Serbs won’t accept Albanians and the Albanians won’t accept the Serbs. By going through the UN they could get a lot of compromises, such as no military, no joining with Albania restrictions on what the government in Kosova is allowed to do, and a lot of freedom for the Serbs that are still living in Kosova. Btw, a plan that allow for these conditions and more, proposed by Martti Ahtisaari, has in essence already been rejected. If there’s a unilateral declaration of independence those things are no longer guaranteed. It's not politically sound to continue with these strategies. Serbia proper has also been hurt by the war. If they alienate themselves from the EU as they have threatened then this might severely hurt their economy. Perhaps, I should mention I'm Albanian, but I am not from Kosova. I was born and grew up in Albania. |
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