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albania · 10-03-2007, 03:11 PM

It is true that Kosova is a poor region. If it gained statehood it would probably become the poorest country in Europe. However, the economy only continues to suffer because of the ambiguity of the situation. No one wants to invest money when everything could blow up at any time, literally and figuratively. In fact, the economy of Kosova is probably mostly supported by the UN and EU, when the UN mission finally pulls out it could be devastating economically. There are many Kosvars that live abroad and they will send money back home, but it is indeed a challenge. Militarily, it is unlikely that an independent Kosova could win against Serbia in a one on one war. However, whereas 8 years ago it was a lopsided victory for the Serbs if another conflict were to happen today there would be many more casualties, and an actual chance for victory.

As for Russia they have plenty of resources. Russia lately wants to do anything to flex their muscle at the West, and since the West in general supports independence this is as good a place as any. They have veto power in the Security Council of the UN. Which for the Serbs might as well guarantee that there can’t be UN backed solution for independence. In my opinion it is just a bad move, it’s clear to see that for all intensive purposes they have lost the region. Serbs won’t accept Albanians and the Albanians won’t accept the Serbs. By going through the UN they could get a lot of compromises, such as no military, no joining with Albania restrictions on what the government in Kosova is allowed to do, and a lot of freedom for the Serbs that are still living in Kosova. Btw, a plan that allow for these conditions and more, proposed by Martti Ahtisaari, has in essence already been rejected. If there’s a unilateral declaration of independence those things are no longer guaranteed. It's not politically sound to continue with these strategies. Serbia proper has also been hurt by the war. If they alienate themselves from the EU as they have threatened then this might severely hurt their economy.

Perhaps, I should mention I'm Albanian, but I am not from Kosova. I was born and grew up in Albania.

10-03-2007, 03:11 PM	#4 (permalink)
albania Psycho	It is true that Kosova is a poor region. If it gained statehood it would probably become the poorest country in Europe. However, the economy only continues to suffer because of the ambiguity of the situation. No one wants to invest money when everything could blow up at any time, literally and figuratively. In fact, the economy of Kosova is probably mostly supported by the UN and EU, when the UN mission finally pulls out it could be devastating economically. There are many Kosvars that live abroad and they will send money back home, but it is indeed a challenge. Militarily, it is unlikely that an independent Kosova could win against Serbia in a one on one war. However, whereas 8 years ago it was a lopsided victory for the Serbs if another conflict were to happen today there would be many more casualties, and an actual chance for victory. As for Russia they have plenty of resources. Russia lately wants to do anything to flex their muscle at the West, and since the West in general supports independence this is as good a place as any. They have veto power in the Security Council of the UN. Which for the Serbs might as well guarantee that there can’t be UN backed solution for independence. In my opinion it is just a bad move, it’s clear to see that for all intensive purposes they have lost the region. Serbs won’t accept Albanians and the Albanians won’t accept the Serbs. By going through the UN they could get a lot of compromises, such as no military, no joining with Albania restrictions on what the government in Kosova is allowed to do, and a lot of freedom for the Serbs that are still living in Kosova. Btw, a plan that allow for these conditions and more, proposed by Martti Ahtisaari, has in essence already been rejected. If there’s a unilateral declaration of independence those things are no longer guaranteed. It's not politically sound to continue with these strategies. Serbia proper has also been hurt by the war. If they alienate themselves from the EU as they have threatened then this might severely hurt their economy. Perhaps, I should mention I'm Albanian, but I am not from Kosova. I was born and grew up in Albania.